Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 19

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAAB

Arizona at UTEP
The Wildcats head to Texas-El Paso tonight to face a Miners team that is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 home games. Arizona is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Wildcats favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7).

Game 821-822: St. Mary's (CA) at St. John's (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 59.511; St. John's 70.313
Dunkel Line: St. John's by 11
Vegas Line: St. John's by 8
Dunkel Pick: St. John's (-8)

Game 823-824: Northern Illinois at Dartmouth (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 48.098; Dartmouth 50.995
Dunkel Line: Dartmouth by 3
Vegas Line: Dartmouth by 6
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+6)

Game 825-826: Clemson at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 61.091; South Carolina 66.731
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (+8 1/2)

Game 827-828: Arizona at UTEP (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 77.784; UTEP 64.115
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7)

Game 833-834: Eastern Kentucky at Miami (FL) (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 53.196; Miami (FL) 64.660
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 15
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Kentucky (+15)

Game 835-836: Tennessee Tech at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee Tech 48.020; Tennessee 68.818
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 21
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 14
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-14)

Game 837-838: Niagara at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 45.449; Buffalo 58.752
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+15 1/2)

Game 839-840: Southern Utah at Loyola-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Utah 40.030; Loyola-Chicago 57.873
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 18
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (-14 1/2)

Game 841-842: Chattanooga at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 47.980; Middle Tennessee State 59.124
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 11
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-7 1/2)

Game 843-844: Colorado State at Denver (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 60.091; Denver 58.844
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 1
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+3 1/2)

Game 845-846: Eastern Washington at California (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 57.452; California 62.489
Dunkel Line: California by 5
Vegas Line: California by 8
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+8)

Game 851-852: Seattle at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 47.531; Minnesota 70.426
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 23
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 19 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-19 1/2)

Game 853-854: Alabama A&M at Marquette (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama A&M 38.335; Marquette 66.218
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 28
Vegas Line: Marquette by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Marquette (-21 1/2)

DAVE COKIN

ARIZONA AT UTEP
PLAY: UTEP +7.5

There’s no doubt about it. Arizona is a legit contender to be playing on the final weekend of the college basketball season. The Wildcats are the total package, they’re extremely well coached and it sure appears that they come to play in virtually every game, a mark of a potential championship caliber team.

Nevertheless, the Wildcats have a real test on their hands tonight. Arizona will play its first true road game of the season this evening, and getting past UTEP looks to me to be a very tough test for this powerhouse.

Arizona is going to have to avoid getting frustrated with the tempo and height they’re going to see tonight from the Miners. Tim Floyd can coach ‘em up with anyone and he’s going to do everything he can to prevent Sean Miller from turning this into a track meet.

I’m not a big history buff, but every now and then a trend just jumps off the page and cannot be ignored. That’s the case for me tonight as UTEP takes the court as a home underdog. The Miners aren’t in this role often, but when they are, look out. UTEP is 9-0-1 ATS getting points at home. The last time they failed in this role was in March of 2007. Obviously, that doesn’t mean the run can’t end tonight. But that’s not the type of streak I’d be anxious to play against.

I see a bit of value with the home side tonight. Arizona has been superb to date, and the Wildcats are a favorite with the betting public for good reason. But the oddsmakers are well aware of that, and it appears to me that they’ve inflated this line a bit to adjust for what figures to be plenty of action on the Arizona side.

It’s never easy to fire against a team in great form that’s the real deal. But that home dog stat is compelling and I believe the hosts are good enough to keep this very competitive. UTEP plus the points is the choice as the Friday free play.

Jim Feist

Clippers vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 214.5

Both teams love to run the court. The uptempo Clippers run teams into the ground with their depth, 4th in the NHL in scoring, 5th in assists. The over is 4-0 when the Clippers face the Western Conference. Blake Griffin had 31 points and 16 rebounds, Jordan added 23 rebounds and 15 points, and the two-time defending Pacific Division champions beat the Pacers 102-100 on Wednesday night. The over is 5-1 in when the Clippers face a team with a losing record. Denver can run, as well, 11th in scoring, but 27th in rebounding. They just gave up 115 points in an OT loss to Houston the last game. The over is 5-2 in the Nuggets last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600, and the over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 home games.

Rob Vinciletti

Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -11.5

The Cavs will look to bounce back from a terrible blowout loss here to Atlanta tonight. There is a solid league wide system in this game that applies and plays against the Nets and any team as a road dog of 5 or more with rest if they are off a road dog ats loss and scored 90 or less in their last game, vs an opponent off a home favored spread loss by 14 or more points, like the Cavs, that scored 90 or more. These road dogs are 1-16 and 3-14 to the spread the last 20 seasons. The Nets look to be in the wrong place at the wrong time here as the Cavs should be ready to play tonight.

Rob Vinciletti's Featured Package

Sleepyj

Stars / Flames Under 5.5

Both teams come into this contest well rested for tonight. Dallas had a nice shutout win last time out Vs. Vancouver and the goal tending for them has been bad this year. I think they can build off that game and play a defensive type of game Vs. the Flames. Dallas is poor with penalties, but can score the puck without the penalty. I like this Calgary defense at home and they are coming off a loss to the Rangers. I think Calgary can be physical in this game and limit the Stars to scoring in this game. Calgary has hit a major slump in the season losing 6 in a row right now. Something has to give for this team. look for them to play defense as they have been giving up goals at a rapid rate. The schedule wans't easy for them, bu t this is a step down in class and they are well rested at home. Look for them to bring it tonight to try to snap this cold streak. Dallas on the other hand has been playing plenty of OVER games as of late. They have won 2 in a row and it's the defense that has helped them get winns the last week. I think that's continues tonight as they look for back to back road games here in a short travel with some rest.

Scott Spreitzer

Detroit Pistons +7.5

The natives are growing restless in Detroit and are hoping for their team's first win in Auburn Hills in more than a month. We don't need a SU win as we're getting more than three buckets with the home team. There were signs of improvement despite losing 117-106 to Dallas last time out. Detroit was within six points with just over three minutes to go in the game, but couldn't hang the number. However, they are better now than they were a few games ago, thanks in part to the return of Jodie Meeks. He'll play in his 5th game of the season tonight and already adds about 12 ppg to the attack. Meeks isn't the biggest "disher" but he will open the floor for guys like Andre Drummond, who's off a strong performance on Wednesday night when he scored 19 points and grabbed a whopping 24 rebounds. Meeks' 20 minutes per contest also makes life easier on the rest of the backcourt, including Brandon Jennings who gets the ball to the open man. I believe we're catching the Pistons in an "under the radar" situation tonight and I'm recommending a play on Detroit plus the points.

Jimmy Boyd

Charlotte Hornets -4½

It's been no where close to the season that the Hornets anticipated, but I believe their poor start has them showing some decent value here as a mere 4.5-point favorite at Philadelphia. The 76ers are the least talented team in the league and are winless at 0-13 at home and just 2-22 overall. This team's only hope of winning is to catch their opponent not giving them their full attention. That's not going to be the case tonight, as Charlotte is desperate for a win after dropping 4 straight.

We saw a similar scenario earlier this week, as the Celtics went into Philadelphia as a 5-point favorite off 3 straight losses. Boston was all business and destroyed the 76ers 105-87. Last time the Hornets visited Philadelphia, they won 123-93 as a 8-point favorite, which just so happened to follow a 6-game losing streak.

Charlotte is 11-5-3 ATS in their last 19 road games against a team with a losing home record and 19-9 ATS in their last 28 versus the Atlantic Division. Philadelphia is 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-5 ATS when playing with 3 or more days of rest.

Adding to all of this is a strong system. Road favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points that have been beaten by the spread by 24 or more combined points over their last 3 games are 29-7 ATS since 1996 against an opponent that has gone under the total by 54 or more combined points in their last 10 games. That's a 81% long-term system in favor of the Hornets.

Will Rogers

Boston vs. Winnipeg
Pick: Boston

The Boston Bruins are looking for a second consecutive win, their third for the month, as they're closing out a three game road trip in Winnipeg against the Jets tonight. The home team has split the first two games of a four game home-stand defeating the Sabres but losing to the Ducks. The Bruins won the first meeting between the two teams 2-1 in Boston, and I think they'll run away with the two points tonight as well.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Injuries - The Jets will have to do without four of their best defensemen with Jacob Trouba joining Mark Stuart, Tobias Enstrom and Zach Bogosian on the injury list. The visitors on the other hand had David Krejci back against the Wild Tuesday after the Czech had been out for almost a month with a hip-injury. He has 10 points over 12 games this season and logged more than 18 minutes straight away in the comeback.

2. Road Warriors - The Bruins have won seven of their last eight on the road versus a team with a losing home record. They're also on somewhat on a roll right now, going 2-0-1 over their last three away from home.

3. X-Factor - Tuukka Rask is 9-4-0 with two shutouts and a 1.90 GAA in his career against the Jets.

Will Rogers's Featured Package

Bryan Power

Charlotte vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

Taking the 76ers can certainly be "hazardous to one's own health," but the idea of Charlotte laying points on the road right now just seems worse. The Hornets have just one road win all season and just two wins total in their last 16 games. So, the chance to go against them as a favorite is too good to pass up....

Now, I did go against Philadelphia in their last game, which resulted in an 18-point home loss to Boston. It was their first game since blowing a lead at home vs. Memphis and losing in overtime, which I figured would be difficult to overcome. The loss also dropped them to 0-13 SU at home this season. The record for most home losses to start a season is 19 by the 1993-94 Mavs. Obviously, no team can stand losing in front of its fans every game, so you have to assume that the elusive first home win is coming. I'd say this game ranks among their best shots of the season.

I actually thought there was a chance this game would be closer to a pick 'em, especially now that Charlotte is w/out an injured Lance Stephenson. Yes, Stephenson has been a giant bust, but there just isn't much talent elsewhere to step up. As favorites, the Hornets are just 3-6 ATS this season and have failed to cover four of their last five times in that role w/ the only win coming when they were well-rested (as in four days off) against Boston. They've lost outright on three of those last five occasions.

Wunderdog

Brooklyn @ Cleveland
Pick: Brooklyn +12

The Nets broke through last year to make the playoffs, so much was expected from this team this season. They have yet to get on track and have played quite a bit below the level of talent they put on the floor on a nightly basis. That has left this team at just 10-14 on the season. The Cavaliers were supposed to be the front runner in the NBA Eastern Conference, but have not put it all together. They're still trying to mesh the talented pieces they have acquired, but it hasn't gone as smoothly as expected. They rattled off eight in a row, but at 14-10 outside that streak this is a 6-10 team, and one that has lost its way once again dropping three of four. The last loss was awful in a 29-point setback in Atlanta. Nothing about Brooklyn will inspire the Cavs here and the line is out of touch with this team's reality this season. Take the points on Brooklyn.

Kevin Rogers

Hornets at 76ers
Play: 76ers +5

The Hornets are just 3-6 ATS as a favorite this season, as Charlotte is a road favorite at Philadelphia tonight. Lance Stephenson is out tonight for Charlotte with a pelvic injury, as his arrival with the Hornets hasn't really been a benefit during this 6-19 start. The 76ers are a disaster, we know that. But Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS this season at home off consecutive home losses, coming off an ugly defeat to Boston. I'll take the points with the 76ers.

SPORTS WAGERS

OTTAWA -½ +150 over Anaheim

Regulation only. This is strictly a situational play against the Ducks. Anaheim plays the final game of a five games in seven night’s road trip here. They have not been home for consecutive days since the beginning of the month making this their eighth straight game of travel. The Ducks played last night in Montreal and they also played Tuesday in Toronto so this is also their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. This is certainly a game the Ducks could get caught napping in. They are comfortably in first place overall heading into the upcoming Xmas break. After this game, they return home to play the Sharks on Monday before five full days off to enjoy Christmas with family and friends. Running on fumes and coming off a victory in Montreal last night we highly doubt we’ll see the Ducks best effort here.

By contrast, Ottawa can’t afford nights off and figure to being it tonight against what is considered an elite opponent. Despite defeating the Devils on Wednesday, new boss Dave Cameron can’t be happy with the effort. The Sens won that game only because Craig Anderson stood on his head. Getting outplayed that badly by the Devils is something that can’t be sitting well with the players either. A much stronger effort is almost guaranteed in this one. Besides that, we see so many positive signs with the Senators. They have a strong group of forwards with some outstanding young talent. They have outstanding goaltending and in terms of analytics or advanced stats, they are slowly improving in that area too while moving up the rankings. Ottawa is not in the same class as the Ducks but they have a significant edge in goal here and they are one of the more favorable situational spots of the season so far. We could lay 10 cents instead of a half puck but we like the 50 cent take back and we’re confident in the situation for Ottawa and the effort they figure to put forth.

Dallas +113 over CALGARY

OT included. We’ve been pretty strong supporters of the Flames all season, especially early on when Kari Ramo and Jonas Hiller were playing well. Unfortunately, that is no longer the case and now both goalies are huge liabilities. Because goaltending is such a big factor in deciding the outcome of games, Calgary is not playable right now with either one of these stiffs in net and they’re especially not playable as the chalk when facing a team that can score. When they were having success early on, Calgary was still chasing too many games, often falling behind by two goals, That dangerous game has caught up to them. Now the Flames poor goaltending is an issue and so is the fact that the offense has slowed way down. The Flames have been outscored 21-10 over their last six games and until they do something about their goaltending, they’ll continue to regress.

The Stars defense and goaltending has been a complete mess for most of the year but we’re seeing some adjustments recently which have led to better results. Kari Lehtonen has been much sharper over the teams’ last four games. Dallas has outshot three of their past four opponents and has cut way down on shots on net allowed. They’ve also won three of four and what follows victories is a commitment to what the coach is selling. Dallas has several outstanding parts. They have one of the best lines in hockey and they have a rookie defenseman named John Klingberg that is getting better every game. That guy is a true stud in the making and now everything about that Dallas defense looks so much better than it did for the first 30 games of the season. Dallas has dug a bit of a hole for itself but this team was projected to be a true contender. With a poor record and with their stock low, we’ll keep an eye on the progression of the Stars because they could surely be one of the more profitable teams the rest of the way or for the next few games until the market adjusts.

Jack Jones

Minnesota Timberwolves +6

The Boston Celtics are in a very tough spot tonight. They just traded Rajon Rondo to the Dallas Mavericks in return for Brandan Wright, Jae Crowder, Jameer Nelson, money and draft picks yesterday. With this huge distraction, I don't look for them to put forth a very good effort tonight.

I realize that the Minnesota Timberwolves are not playing well at all right now, and as a result they are tough to back, but there's no question that they are showing value here as 6-point underdog to the Celtics given the situation.

A lot of time, when a bad team from the Western Conference plays an Eastern Conference foe, they tend to exceed expectations in terms of the point spread. That's because the Western Conference is so stacked that almost any team from the East is going to be a step down in competition. That's certainly the case here against the 9-14 Celtics.

Boston comes in overvalued as it is off two straight wins over Philadelphia and Orlando. Plays against home favorites (BOSTON) - off a home win by 10 points or more, on Friday nights are 82-43 (65.6%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Celtics are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 home games after scoring 55 points or more in the first half of two straight games.

Boston is 29-48 ATS in its last 77 games off a game where it made 55% or more of its shots. Minnesota is 2-1 in its last three meetings with Boston with its loss coming by four points. The Celtics are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Boston is 1-5 ATS in its last six vs. Western Conference foes.

Dave Price

Minnesota Timberwolves +6

I think this will be a tough game for the Celtics as it will be their first without Rajon Rondo, who has been moved to Dallas. Almost everything Boston got offensively was set up by Rondo, who leads the NBA with 10.8 assists per game. It will be a big change for Boston not having him on the floor. The Celtics are 1-5 ATS in their last six versus the Western Conference, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 home games versus a team with a road winning percentatge of less than .400 and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a win of more than 10 points. Fading Friday night home favorites that are off a home win of 10 points or more has produced an 82-43 ATS mark the last five seasons.