Jimmy Adams
Tennessee Tech vs. Tennessee
Play: Tennessee -13
We cashed a nice ticket against Tennessee a couple of days ago and now we’ll be looking cash with them. The Volunteers are coming off of a tough defeat at NCST. This is the perfect spot for them to bounce back against a much inferior Tennessee Tech squad. Tennessee’s record doesn’t impress many, but they have played the 5th toughest schedule in the nation. They’re also undefeated at home.
Tennessee Tech is an average team at best. They have shown the ability to score but haven’t faced a team like the Volunteers. It is going to be a very tough task for them to go on the road here and compete. I wouldn’t call this a full blown rivalry, however, these teams are from the same state so Tennessee sure won’t overlook them. Coming off of a loss in this spot at home makes this a sure play on the Volunteers.
Steve Janus
Cleveland Cavaliers -11½
I'm expecting max effort from the Cavaliers after Wednesday's ugly 29-point loss at home to Atlanta. Cleveland already beat the Nets by 22 in Brookyln earlier this season as an 8-point favorite. If you factor in homecourt advantage, the Cavaliers should be laying closer to 14 points at home. Don't let this double-digit spread scare you away from what should be an easy win and cover for Cleveland. Brooklyn is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record
System - Explosive offensive teams who are averaging 102+ ppg against an average offensive team that is scoring 92-98 ppg are 127-76 (63%) ATS after a blowout loss by 15 or more points.
LT Profits
Eastern Washington vs California
Pick: California -6
Both the Eastern Washington Eagles and California Golden Bears are off to nice starts this season, but Eastern Washington is not sneaking up on opponents any more after beating Indiana earlier and has now lost two straight games, most recently by 24 points to a Sam Houston State team ranked 106th on the Pomeroy Ratings. This is also the fifth straight road game for the Eagles, who may be looking forward to finally returning home on Monday. California represents a step up in class for Eastern Washington, which has probably not yet faced a defense this good. The Golden Bears are 24th in the country in defensive efficiency and an amazing 13th in effective field goal percentage allowed at a mere 40.9 percent! The Bears also have two wins vs. Pomeroy 100 teams including beating 39th ranked Syracuse. California is 9-3-2 ATS in its last 14 non-conference games.
Brian Hay
Clemson vs. South Carolina
Play: Clemson +6
Seems like a lot of points to be giving a Clemson Tigers team that has won the last pair in this rivalry, and 8 of the past 10 straight up. South Carolina may indeed get their "double-revenge" tonight, but I don't think they can stretch the number, especially with the Gamecocks having last played on December 6th. Expect South Carolina to come out in this home date a little sluggish from the long lay-off. The Gamecocks best be on guard as well, because not only have they lost 8 of the past 10 in this series, but they are facing a Clemson team that owns wins over Auburn and Arkansas their last pair of games, and the Tigers have also beaten LSU on a neutral floor earlier this season. Just don't get this number, as this certainly looks like it is too many points to ask South Carolina to cover. Take underdog Clemson to be there.
Doug Upstone
Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
Play: Miami Heat +6
Play On underdogs like MIAMI, revenging a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, off an upset loss by 15 points or more as a favorite. Granted, the Heat are suffering injury issues, but these kind of games have virtually assured the underdog brings their A-Game and they are 24-5 ATS, 82.8% the past 18 years.
Harry Bondi
ST JOHNS (-7) over ST Marys
In the battle of the saint schools we will take John over Mary! St. John's has been playing great basketball so far and it's because of its commitment to defense. Red Storm are holding opponents to less than 57 points per game and have some impressive wins including at Syracuse. St Mary's has been wildly inconsistent this year winning at Creighton on Saturday (we had them!)and then losing at home Tuesday to division 2 school Northern Arizona. They now have to travel cross country to take on a much more athletic and quicker team. that will spell disaster for the Gaels as the Red Storm rolls!
Scott Rickenbach
Calgary / Dallas Over 5.5
The Stars have leaned toward the Over in their recent contests, going Over the number in seven of their last 10 outings. Dallas is 3-1 O/U in its last four road games, giving up five goals in each of those three Over winners. The Flames continues to get beat up on defense, allowing 24 goals in their last seven games – an average of 3.4 goals a night. Calgary has been a solid Under play away from home but is 10-5 O/U as hosts this season. The Flames and Stars are 11-2-3 O/U in their previous 16 head-to-head matchups. Calgary goaltender Karri Ramo is dealing with illness and sat out practice this week. He is being tested for the mumps and the Flames will go with Jonas Hiller between the pipes. He’s allowed three of more goals in six of his last 10 appearances.
River City Sharps
Colorado St -3.5
Another curious line here as Colorado St (10-0) visits Denver (5-5). The Rams are ranked 16th in RPI and score 73.5 ppg, only giving up 62.6 ppg. Denver 239 in RPI, scores 61.9 and gives up about the same 61.1. The big difference here is on the glass, Col St avg 37 boards a game and Denver 25, 351st in the NCAA. We know Denver is generally pretty good at home and are 4-1 so far this year, but Colorado St should be used to the thin air as well. Colorado St is playing good ball and with their dominance on the boards in this one, we see the Rams pulling away late in this one.
Ian Cameron
Eastern Washington at California
Play: Eastern Washington +6.5
My clients and I recently cashed a winning ticket supporting the Eastern Washington Eagles in their spread covering 81-77 loss at undefeated Washington. The Eagles led by double digits at one point but the Huskies kept chipping away at the lead and eventually got the win. EWU suffered a somewhat inevitable hangover in their next game losing 76-52 at Sam Houston State but I think the Eagles are talented enough to bounce back with a much better effort. This is a squad that has four starters back and a very experienced backcourt featuring Tyler Harvey, Drew Brandon, and Parker Kelly. They have some size inside as well with forward Venky Jois averaging 19.6 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. Cuonzo Martin’s Cal squad has played stellar defense to this point but you could make a solid argument they haven’t played many capable offenses. Guard Jabari Bird Is likely to miss his fourth straight game with a foot injury. The Golden Bears have stalled in the three games without Bird on the floor, failing to top 67 points against Nevada, Wyoming and Princeton. The Eagles went on the road and beat the Indiana Hoosiers at Assembly Hall and they hung tough at SMU losing by nine points but covered the spread wire-to-wire. They are a perfect 9-0 ATS in their last nine lined road games dating back to last year. Plus the points is the call in this one.
Ken Thomson
UTEP +6
I know it's crazy...but if UTEP can get off to a solid start out of the gate, I think the Miners can upset Arizona straight up. I took the points and last night while I was doing my radio show the line went up to 8 for a brief time. AZ is loaded and McConnell is running the point well getting better than 6 assists per game. When you have scorers like Stanley Johnson, Hollis-Jefferson, Asley and York there is NO DOUBT this is a legit FINAL FOUR team. Tarczewski is a beast down low as well. So everything points to the Cats....but I'm taking a shot at UTEP here because it is Arizona's first true road game. It's a 9:00 PM MT local start and the place will be rocking! Vince Hunter ( 16 ppg, 10 RB ) needs to lead the way for Tim Floyd's Miners. Julian Washburn and Cedrick Lane are solid scorers as well and CJ Cooper needs to run the point to perfection. Young Canadian center ( 7'1" Matt Willms ) draws the assignment of keeping Tarczewski from dominating the paint. If they can shoot it well and box out, UTEP can ride the crowd and stun the Cats. Sean Miller can flat out coach so it's just a one unit play but the spot favors the Miners! You'll know early if this is going to be a game! If the stage is not too big, Floyd's guys can get'r done!!
OC Dooley
Seattle +21
Host Minnesota has won 5 games in a row including four straight by “double digit” counts with the offense averaging a whopping 80+ points per game along the way. But due to final exams the Gophers have endured a lengthy break in the schedule which is a “momentum” killer. On the flipside for the first time in more than two years the visiting side actually boarded an airplane enroute to face an opponent from a major conference on the highway. Tonight is a rare National-TV opportunity for Seattle University and their head coach Cameron Dollar who beginning five years ago helped transform the program to the Division I level. This is the same Cameron Dollar who was part of the 1995 UCLA national championship team and also an accomplished assistant with the Washington Huskies under their current leader Lorenzo Romar. To give you an idea where the Seattle program is headed they actually made the championship game of the Western Athletic postseason conference tournament a year ago. I am aware that host Minnesota is a perfect 6-0 so far at home and lead the nation in average assists dished out per contest but as mentioned above have had to endure an momentum killing extended break for final exams. Visiting Seattle when facing a defensive-oriented opponent (allow less than 43 points on average per game) have gone a sizzling 10-1 ATS
Bruce Marshall
Minnesota at Boston
Pick: Under
Rajon Rondo's trade to Dallas will re-arrange the deck chairs in Boston, and too soon for many of the arriving pieces from the Mavs to contribute tonight for Celtics. in the short term, that means more minutes for Ok State rookie PG Marcus Smart. But fair to assume the Boston offense might operate a bit less efficiently tonight, and injury-plagued Minnesota rarely gets to 100 points these days (T-wolves "under" 4-1 last five).
Dr. Bob
Opinion – Oklahoma City (-5½) over L.A. Lakers
Kevin Durant sprained his ankle last night and is expected to miss this game but my ratings favor the Thunder by 5 ½ points without Durant – so the line is fair – and the Lakers apply to a negative 49-102-2 ATS scheduling situation. The Thunder are also 104-60-1 ATS after a loss the last 6 seasons. I’ll lean with the Thunder based on that angle and team trend.
Vegas Butcher
Charlotte Hornets -4.5
The fact that Hornets are only 4.5 point favorites against Philly shows how far they’ve fallen. Remember, this was a ‘playoff’ team last year. So what changed? Addition of Stephenson for one was a big change. Stephenson though has been pretty useless, as his “real +/-“ranks 46th out of all shooting guards, next to guys like Bojan Bogdanovic and Markel Brown. Maybe without him in the lineup this Hornets team will play better. One advantage for the Hornets is that they rank 1st in the league in TO-rate offensively. Philly relies on pressure for their defense ranking 1st in TO-rate forced, but this is obviously a bad matchup for them. Besides, Philly has the 30th ranked TO-rate offensively. This could very well be the difference in the game here. I think Charlotte will be competitive in this one and I expect players to step up their games without Stephenson in the lineup.
Orlando Magic -4
Utah is coming off a win but that came against Miami, who were without Bosh/McRoberts and playing on a b2b after a really tough win the night before. Miami is also horrible defensively, while Orlando ranks 17th. Magic off a blowout loss @ Boston, and I expect them to play harder tonight. They’ve beaten Utah already this year, and that was without Vucevic, their best player. Favors and Kanter combined to go 17 for 29 for 37 points and 18 rebounds in that game, yet Utah still lost. Expect Vucevic to provide better interior D for Orlando and help with the rebounding as well. I like Magic to end Utah’s “winning streak” tonight.
Washington Wizards -6
Without Bosh and McRoberts, this interior of Miami’s D is really weak and going up against Gortat, Nene, and Humphries won’t be easy. To make matters worse, this Miami team ranks 26th defensively and 28th in eFG%-allowed. Undermanned squad, ineffective bench, and aging starts (Wade and Deng) – hard to see a team like that compete with one of the best in the East. Washington had 2 days off so should be fully rested for this one. I like them to win by 10+.
Portland Trail Blazers +4.5
The Spurs are still without Parker and Leonard, their two key players. They are coming off a triple-OT game where many of their aging stars logged 40+ minutes, with Duncan hitting 48, Belinelli 43, Ginobili 41, and Danny Green 52. Now they’ll take on a younger Portland team which ranks top-10 both offensively and defensively in the league. Portland is a better team right now and there’s too many points in this one.
Los Angeles Clippers -3.5
Denver played really hard on Wednesday, but they struggled containing Howard and Harden defensively, as both exposed Denver’s weaknesses: lack of rim protection on the inside and just overall poor defense. Clippers rank 3rd offensively and they have Jordan and Griffin to dominate on the inside. After losing a tough one at home to Houston, I expect a bit of a let-down tonight. Just don’t see Denver playing with the same energy-level and Clippers are just a superior team right now.
Carson K
Boston -105
Yes, Winnipeg will have Harrison tonight to try and help with all the problems the Jets are having right now with their defenseman. My guess is, it won't matter much tonight. Don't you still need time to gel with your new teammates? I believe the Bruins got some help & new life with the return of David Krejci. He was in the line-up the other night when they beat the Wild. On the season the Bruins are 8-4 with Krejci.
Detroit -135
They went 9-2 before they loss 4 in a row. But it wasn't like they were playing bad in those 4 losses. In those 4 games Det had (131 SOG), their Opponents had (115 SOG). I'm thinking the Red Wings turn things around tonight and find the back of the net.
Dallas +105
The last 16 games the Stars played they are 8 & 8. For the most part they beat the teams they should and lose to the better teams. The record of the 8 teams they just beat 110-112-36. Compared to the 8 teams they lost to, 125-92-33. I think the way the Flames are playing right now, they are a team the Stars can beat tonight.