Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 23

Rob Vinciletti

Western Michigan vs. Oakland
Play: Over 162

Both of these teams have several angles that play to the over here tonight. Oakland plays an up tempo style and has played over in 12 of 16 vs losing teams 16 of 20 in non conference games, 14 of 16 at home, 11 of 13 in December, and 10 of 13 after allowing 80 or more. Western Michigan has flown over in 18 of 22 after allowing 60 or less, 18 of 25 on the road, 6 of 8 after scoring 60 or less and 4 of 5 vs teams who allow more than 76 points per game. Look for this one to fly over the total tonight.

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Florida Panthers @ Boston Bruins
PICK: Boston Bruins

The Bruins will be looking for revenge against the Panthers on Friday night. Remember, they dropped a 2-0 decision, despite outshooting Florida 40-30, right here in Beantown back on December 8th.

Keep in mind, the Panthers were playing some of their best hockey of the season at the time, coming off back-to-back road wins over the Sharks and Capitals.

This time around, Florida is struggling. The Panthers have lost back-to-back games against the Coyotes and Senators, and will play for the ninth time in the last 15 nights, with five of those contests needing overtime.

The Bruins are rolling again, winners of five in a row, allowing only seven goals over that stretch.

Of course, Boston remains a force here at TD Garden, where it owns a 12-6-1 record this season. In fact, the B's have been outstanding regardless the venue, having lost only three games since the start of November.

While Florida did get the better of Boston earlier this month, it's worth noting that the Bruins have still taken six of the last eight meetings in this series. Look for them to head into the Christmas break on a high note.

Jim Feist

Richmond vs. UCLA
Play: Under 130½

The Spiders head to the West Coast to take on a Pac 12 school for the second-straight year after winning at Arizona State last December, 67-61. The Spiders are not as strong offensively away from home but can lean on their defense, holding Arizona State to 34% shooting in that win. The under is 12-4-1 in Spiders last 17 overall, and the under is 11-5-1 in Spiders last 17 non-conference games. UCLA can play tough defense, as well, and the under is 12-4 in the Bruins last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, as well as 12-5 under in the Bruins last 17 home games. Play Richmond/UCLA Under the total.

Red Dog Sports

Providence vs. Rhode Island
Play: Providence -6

The Friars are 10-2 overall and won at home vs. URI by 87-74. Rhode Island is just 1-10 SU and 3-7 ATS and just lost at home to Yale and to Virginia Tech by 11 points. Providence has four players who score over 13.5 ppg and should outscore the Rams who have no defense.

Brad Diamond

Marist vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Marist +11

The gutty Penn Quakers have a home date with the Red Foxes on Friday night at the Palestra. The Quakers are 5-6 SU and 5-3 ATS, showing off a difficult, but impressive loss to UCLA 77-73. Marist possesses effective shooters, but they are a pathetic 3-22 SU on the road the last twenty-five times out. Last year the Red Foxes stopped the Quakers 75-66, so revenge is in order for Penn. However, Friday the lines makers are asking a little too much of the Quakers, laying double-digits, and boarding without the kids on campus. Remember Penn is 1-5 ATS against the MAAC and 17-36 ATS in non-conference games. Whereas, Marist is 5-1 ATS in non-conference encounters. Not a strong play, but I’ll take a ticket with Marist and all those points.

Dave Cokin

Baylor vs West Virginia
Pick: Baylor

The more I see Baylor, the more I'm impressed with the Bears. This team has the look of legit Top 15 timber this season. West Virginia is physical and they don't miss in close. But they can't make free throws and their perimeter game is very suspect. Look for Baylor to stay unbeaten with another solid win over the Mountaineers.

JR O'Donnell

Pittsburgh -11.5

Tonight at 8 PM EST Pitt (Big East) hosts Wagner (Northeast conference) in a game that some can say will be closer than we think. Wagner is 7-3, but the opposition is so bad they have a schedule ranked #268th in the nation. Wagner averages 74.8 ppg (71st) and allows 65.6 ppg (156th) and is #162nd in rebounds/g and #152 in field goal percentage 44.3! Pitt on the other hand averages 77.9 (38th) and surrenders 65.2 (117th) and rebounds 39.8/g (28th) and shoots 50% from the field which is 12th! Wagner has lost to UCONN by only 12, but also to LIU (away) -5 and to Lehigh at home by "1"! They do have "5" starters back from a team that won "13" last season in the Northeast conference. Power rated off the charts @ - 17.22 points

They have brought in a talented recruiting class, as the name of Hurley has a magical spell to it. We see the difference here Pitt allows only 26.2 rebounds per game to the 35.5 that Wagner allows, and that is over "10" extra possessions. True the Panthers will miss Woodhall, and they only return two starters from last years "28" win team, but they played "8+" players per game, and have "10" players that play more than "14" minutes per game. Dixon of Pitt has more wins in his first "8" years as head coach than any other coach in history with 216 and hold the rebounding and shooting edge. The last five years the Panthers have 148 wins, or almost "30" wins per season. Pitt has beaten a good LaSalle team, won at Tennessee and Okla State at a neural site. Their only loss is to a very good Long beach State squad that created some very bad matchups for the Panthers. Lastly, Pitt has "6" McDonald All-Americans to Wagner's "0"! There is a reason we have won "19" of the last "25" CBb ((( 76% )))!

John Ryan

Western Michigan vs. Oakland
Play: Western Michigan +9

5* graded play on Western Michigan as they take on Oakland in College Hoops action set to start at 7:00 PM ET. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that that Western Michigan will lose this game by fewer than nine points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 56-25 ATS for 69% winners since 2005. Play on road dogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points after two or more consecutive wins and is a struggling team winning between 20% to 40% of their games on the season. Head coach Hawkins has done very well when facing poor perimeter shooting teams like Oakland. He has posted a 22-12 ATS versus poor three point shooting teams making 31% or less of their attempts. This is the advantage I see WM having in this game. They can sit back in a tight zone and for Oakland to shoot. Missed shots can then be rebounded and then look to fast break scoring opportunities in transition. Oakland ranks 171st in shooting percentage nationally and WM’s defense is going to make that rank even worse after this game. Take Western Michigan.

Sammy P Sports

Calgary / Vancouver Under 5.5

Calgary faces one of the hottest teams in the NHL tonight in the Vancouver Canucks. The Canucks have vaulted to second place in the Northwest Division and are just one point (with two games in hand) behind a backpedaling Minnesota team. Vancouver has finally gotten back to playing solid team defense coupled with great goaltending from Roberto Luongo (and backup Cory Schneider) during its 12-2-1 current run. They are giving up on average just 1.67 goals per game during their 15-game streak. Calgary has been doing a lot of good things lately as well and they too are doing it with solid team defense and timely scoring. Calgary has gone UNDER the total in six out of its last eight games and will be playing in a back-to-back situation here tonight. With the heavy price on the Canucks, the UNDER in this inter-division rivalry game looks to be the best way to play it.

Andrew Lange

UTEP vs. Kansas State
Play: UTEP +10.5

Few teams if any have improved more over the last few weeks than UTEP. It all started after the Miners lost to Stephen F. Austin at home 53-35. Tim Floyd decided with a host of inexperience and youth that the best thing to do was to shorten the game and play at a slow pace in order to just stick around. The move paid off as the Miners went to Oregon and lost by six and then beat New Mexico State after losing to the Aggies by 16 a month earlier. They then hung at UNLV in an 11-point loss and last night dominated Clemson 61-48. Kansas State has done nothing wrong this season with wins over Virginia Tech and Alabama and a double-OT loss to West Virginia. But in a neutral site setting, where laying this type of price can be extremely dangerous, I see no reason that UTEP can't grind its way to another spread cover.

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia –110 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Flyers are the NHL’s best road team with 13 wins in 17 games. The Flyers are also in a much more favorable spot, not having played back-to-back games since early December. By contrast, the Rangers played last night and they’re playing their third game in four days. Last night’s win over the Islanders was no breeze either, as the game was tied 1-1 after one and was 3-2 late in the third when the Rangers added an empty-netter. The Rangers have won three in a row but all three wins were of the unimpressive variety, as they were outplayed by New Jersey, they scored with no time left on the clock to beat Phoenix and they did not outplay the Islanders last night. A well-rested and superior Flyers team in a better situational spot gets our endorsement. Play: Philadelphia –110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

NEW JERSEY –102 over Washington

The Capitals are a small favorite here but in no way do they warrant being so. For one, Washington has six wins in 15 road games. Despite four wins in their last six games, the Caps are still not outplaying or dominating anyone. Washington’s three toughest games over its past 10 have come against Philly, St. Louis and Pittsburgh and they went 0-3 against that trio while being outscored 9-3. Meanwhile, the Devils are outplaying everyone. Even in their 4-1 loss to the Rangers, they were clearly the better team. They’ve won seven of their past nine games and it’s somewhat ludicrous that they’re a pooch in their own building against an inferior club. Capitals still have a reputation of being one of the league’s finest clubs that just went through a funk and that wrong perception has them overvalued almost daily. Regardless of outcome, this is a must play because Devils should be favored. Play: New Jersey –102 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

St. Louis -½ +142 over PHOENIX

The Coyotes return home from a brief two-game trip to Florida and Carolina with two wins and four points in their pockets. They’ve also won three of four and all that looks pretty sweet on paper. However, they were completely dominated in Carolina and miraculously won 4-3 after being down 3-1. They were badly out-chanced in that game and outshot 37-19. They weren’t much better against Florida but again got very lucky with a 2-1 win. Phoenix has been held to 23 shots or less in four of its last five games. Now they’ll play a stingy Blues team that gives up little defensively and that has the league’s hottest goaltender in Brian Elliott. The Coyotes charmed life is unsustainable and they’ll be feeling no sense of urgency here. The Blue Notes have lost two of three and come in here with a purpose to go into the break in a positive frame of mind. Much better team with the much better netminder (Mike Smith is out) gets the call. Play: St. Louis -½ +142 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +114 over COLORADO

Expect a push back from the Lightning after getting whacked 7-2 in San Jose on Wednesday. Prior to that one, they had won consecutive starts. The Bolts’ last three losses have come against San Jose, New Jersey and Philly and that’s nothing to hang your head over. Throw out that last debacle against the Sharks and the Lightning have been playing some good hockey. Martin St. Louis, a key ingredient to Tampa’s success, has returned from injury and that can only help our chances. The Avalanche are hot at home with seven straight wins. Even more impressive is that they beat St. Louis twice, Philadelphia, Washington, San Jose and Detroit over that span. Those are some tough teams and to beat them all in succession gives them some serious credibility. But in reality, the Avs are an average bunch and the books are aware of it. Despite Colorado’s recent run, the linesmakers have made the Avs just a small home favorite here and that is a strong indicator of what to expect. Play: Tampa Bay +114 (Risking 2 units).

WUNDERDOG

Tampa Bay at Colorado
Pick: Tampa Bay +105

The Colorado Avalanche has won three straight games, but all by a single goal. Looking at a bigger and problematic picture, they are 4-4 in their last eight games, but are outscored 26-19 because the offense is generating just better than 2 goals per game. Tampa Bay may fare better here as the Lightning is averaging better than 3 per contest over their last six. The Avalanche are also just 22-46 over their last 68 games, and vs. a losing team they are 1-6 over their last seven, and have put just four of their last 15 in the win column as a home favorite. Tampa Bay is coming up big after a poor defensive showing as they are now 6-1 in their last seven after allowing five or more in their last game. Play on Tampa Bay.

Vegas Experts

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche
Play: Colorado Avalanche

Very cheap price on a team playing well at home against an opponent playing lousy on the road. The Avs have won seven straight at home, the last three all coming as underdogs against Eastern Conference foes. Overall, Colorado is 8-1 vs. non-conference opponents this season Tampa Bay has lost six of its last eight outside the Sunshine State, getting outscored 32-15 in those games! The Lightning have not performed well this year when playing a second straight road game, going 1-9 in that role.

Jack Jones

Marist +11

Marist should not be catching double-digits against Pennsylvania tonight. These two 5-6 teams are a lot more evenly-matched than this line would indicate. The clear value in this one is with the road underdog Red Foxes.

Pennsylvania is in a huge letdown spot tonight, and they are likely to be rusty as well. After playing UCLA last time out, the Quakers will go on to play Davidson and Duke following this game. That makes this an "in-between" game and a definite "look-ahead" spot. Plus, Pennsylvania hasn't played since December 10th, and that will certainly work against them.

The Quakers are actually getting outscored at home this season. They have played a fairly easy schedule too, with only three true road games compared to seven home games. Marist has played a more difficult schedule, playing six road games compared to five home games.

This play falls into a system that is 29-6 (82.9%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on road teams as an underdog or pick (MARIST) - average offensive team (67-74 PPG) against a poor offensive team (63-67 PPG), after playing a game where both teams score 80 points or more.

The Quakers are 17-36-2 ATS in their last 55 non-conference games. Pennsylvania is 6-14 ATS in their last 20 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Marist is 15-4 ATS in their last 19 games as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. The Red Foxes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. The Quakers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games after a loss by 6 points or less. Bet Marist Friday.