Steve Janus
Manhattan +7
If you haven't heard of Manhattan, its time to start taking notice. The Jaspers have covered the spread in six straight and nine of their last 10. While you might think it's time to fade them, I believe they are showing great value as a 7-point underdog against George Mason.
The Patriots have been hit or miss all season with a 7-4 record. They have lost two of their last three, including a 64-75 loss at home to Duquesne as a 4-point favorite.
Manhattan has already won more games than they did all of last season. They are currently 8-4. Last year they went just 6-25! The difference has been first year head coach Steve Masiello, who was a former assistant at Louisville.
Until this team starts getting some national recognition they are going to be a strong play against the spread, as no one likes to bet on a team they have never heard of.
Manhattan is 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Colonial Athletic Association.
Black Widow
1* Auburn +10
Long Beach State is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers tonight. While they have a quality team this year and have beaten Pittsburgh, LBS is just 6-5 on the season. Auburn is a team that doesn't get enough respect. With four returning starters this season, the Tigers are off to an impressive start. Auburn (8-1) is the definition of a "team" with five players scoring in double-figures. They are G Frankie Sullivan (13.6 PPG, 5.2 RPG), C Rob Chubb (11.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG), G Chris Denson (11.1 PPG), F Kenny Gariel (11.1 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.8 blocks), and G Varez Ward (1.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 4.1 APG). Plays against neutral court teams (LONG BEACH ST) - a good offensive team (74-78 PPG) against an excellent defensive team (<=63 PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 58-23 (71.6%) ATS since 1997. Long Beach State is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The 49ers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. I like their chances of staying within double-digits tonight, with a decent shot at pulling off the upset. Take Auburn and the points.
Red Dog Sports
Providence -6
The Friars are 10-2 overall and won at home vs. URI by 87-74. Rhode Island is just 1-10 SU and 3-7 ATS and just lost at home to Yale and to Virginia Tech by 11 points. Providence has four players wwho score over 13.5 ppg and should outscore the Rams who have no defense.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Western Kentucky/ Louisville Under 133: (Added) These teams met each of the last 2 years and the Cardinals hung 100+ points on the WKU in both. I don't expect that to happen tonight. Louisville's scoring is down a bit this year as they have averaged 73.5 ppg on 44.5% shooting. They have also not shot the 3 well (32%) and have been bad from the line as well (68.5%). All those numbers are in Division 1 games only. WKU is a division 1 team and they have played pretty well on defense, allowing just 67 ppg on 42.1% shooting. Not saying they will hold the Cardinal to that low an out put, but they have been playing well enough to keep them under 80. The Hilltoppers on offense has been a sad sight to see as they have averaged 60 ppg on just 37.7% shooting, while also hitting just 28.7 from long range and a mere 64.7% from the FT. Louisville has been dominant at the defensive end this year as they are limiting opponents to 56.6 points per game and 35.6 percent shooting, including allowing just 57 ppg on 35.3% shooting at home. Really hard to expect much more than 50 points out of WKU tonight. With a 25 point line I don't expect FT's to be a huge factor at the end of the game, but it's nice to know that both teams have struggled from there and from long range as well. WKU can not run with this team and they will look to slow it down as much as they can. Both defenses have been playing well this year and both teams have had problems shooting. I see this one failing to reach 125 points. KEY TRENDS--- WKU is 13-5 UNDER as an underdog over the last 2 seasons, while Louisville is 9-2 UNDER as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 2 seasons
3 UNIT PLAY
Pittsburgh/ Wagner Under 139: (Added) Both of these offenses have been good this year as you will see in a bit, but im kinda interested in the way these teams have been playing defense of late. Wagner comes in putting up 74.8 ppg on 44.3% shooting, but they have come in in a bit of an offensive slump as they have averaged just 63.5 and have shot just 42.2% over the two games. and that is vs two teams that don't play defense as well as the Panthes. Pittsburgh has allowed 65.2 ppg on 43.7% shooting, but in their last 5 games they have really clamped down as they have allowed just 59.2 ppg on 39.4% shooting. Wagner comes in allowing 65.6 ppg on 40.3% shooting overall, but like Pitt they too have played good defense of late as they have allowed just 60.2 ppg on 35.9% shooting in their last 5 games. Pitt has been very good on ofense as they have averaged 77.9 ppg, but in their last 2 games thei have put up just 70 ppg. This might be a bit of an uptempo game, but i feel with the way both defenses have been playing of late that the scoring will be kept down.
2 UNIT PLAY
California/ UNLV Over 139: Google News Play (15-7). The Rebels are a faced paced team and their offense is clicking as they have averaged 77.9 ppg on a big 46.8% shooting. The Cal Bears come in averaging a very nice 72.5 ppg on 48.4% shooting and they have nailed it from long range hitting 43.8% from downtown. The Bears have been awesome on defense of late as they have allowed just 47.3 ppg in their last 4 games, but they have played one game vs this style of offense this year (Missouri) and they allowed 92 points in that one. The Rebels have played good defense at home (60.2 ppg), but they haven't played this kind of offense on their home floor and overall they have allowed 65.2 ppg and they don't really defend the three well as they have allowed 35.3% (236th) from long range. The Bears can play uptempo if need be and the Rebels should have the game at that pace. Both teams average over 70 points and that what I expect here, both teams over 70.
1 UNIT PLAY
Wisconsin/ Miss Valley State Under 124: (Added) Miss Vall St has averaged just 59.2 ppg i their last 5 games and now they take on the toughest defense of the Bunch as the badgers have allowed just 44.7 ppg on the year and 40.4 ppg at home. With the huge line this has the feel of one of 75-40 games that powerful teams like Wisconsin can put up on these weak teams.