Jim Feist
Bulls vs. Thunder
Play: Over 206
Chicago's defense has been thinking about the Christmas holiday all week, allowing 147, 107 and 105 points the last three games, all over the total. They also lost all three despite topping 101 points twice. They face a run-and-gun Oklahoma City squad that is second in the NBA in scoring (107.4 ppg), just behind Golden State. The Thunder rank No. 3 in field goal shooting and No. 9 in three-point shooting.
Sleepyj
New Mexico / Washington St. Under 149
First thing that comes to mind with New Mexico is defense..Well this Lobo's team hasn't been that stout this year..If you watched some of the games this year, one would know that the Lobo's have tried to pick up that part of the game..It hasn't gone very well, but the effort is still being attempted..New Mexico will back to it's roots here on defense i believe....Now they have held a few teams this year in the 50's and 60's, but that was a constant with this teams for a number of years...Wash St is a decent team, but they really lack offensive explosion..I watched them a few times this year and they can play defense..My only concern for this game is the tempo in which the Cougars play at times..I think if the Lobo's can dictate the pace here, and Washington will slow it down a bit....One of the big reasons i think the Lobo's slow it down is because the last three games they tried to outscore the other team..Well it didn't work out so well as they gave up 90,83,96 points...One would think they slow down the pace and play solid defense..I'm banking on that today with two teams that match-up very well here.
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Bulls and Thunder to stay under the posted total. At the time of this writing, the total in Vegas and offshore is around 205... and to me, that's too high.
Are the Thunder capable of making this game a high-tempo, high-scoring game? Sure they are, but what's gotten them on this current winning streak is the improvement of their defense.
In their first 13 games of the year the Thunder allowed nearly 105 ppg and ranked in the bottom third of the league in several defensive statistical categories. Since then, OKC has allowed around 96 ppg and has seen their defensive stats rise towards the top third of the league.
I've been saying it for years... teams that commit to playing tough and physical on the defensive end of the floor end up with better records than when they run up and down the floor.
Look at the Warriors this year vs. last year. The biggest difference from them now and a year ago was their commitment at the defensive end of the court. They're still the same great shooting offense they were last year (probably better and more efficient), but the reason they're winning at a much stronger pace in 2015 is the defense they play.
OKC is noticing the same thing since they made the switch and it's going to carry over to today's game vs. Chicago... another team built to play defense and score efficiently.
Take the UNDER as your free play of the day.
2* CHICAGO-OKLAHOMA CITY UNDER
Jeff Benton
Your Christmas freebie is the Spurs-Rockets Under the total.
Series numbers dictate a play on the Under in this Spurs-Rockets meeting on Christmas night in Houston, as these teams may be on a 3 game Over run, but have played Under the total in 4 of the last 7, and 4 of the last 5 series meetings at the Toyota Center have held Under the total between these Texas teams.
The Spurs have played their last pair of games Under the total, while the Rockets have played each of their last 5 games Under the total.
Stick with a lower-scoring meeting, as these teams met for the first time this season, and hold Under the posted price.
Spurs-Rockets Under.
1* SAN ANTONIO-HOUSTON UNDER
Brad Wilton
San Antonio has gone 16-0 at home, but they are "only" 9-5 on the road. I will take that 9-5 road mark out for a spin in Houston this Christmas Day, as Houston just cannot seem to gain traction this season, and have split their last 6 games straight up.
After a Houston 5-game series winning streak, San Antonio has turned things around with win in each of the past 3 series meetings, and covers in 2 of those 3 wins.
San Antone enters riding a 7-game win and cover streak, and I see no concrete reason to go against the Spurs in this spot at all.
Road win, road cover for the surging Spurs.
3* SAN ANTONIO
Ricky Tran
Cavs vs. Warriors
Play: Cavs +7
The Cavs will be at Golden State on Christmas Day, looking to avenge last year's loss in the NBA Finals. Not everybody will remember that the first two games at Golden State each went to overtime, and Cleveland went back home with the series tied 1-1. The Cavs lost Kyrie Irving to a season ending injury in Game 1, and you have to wonder what might have happened had he stayed healthy. Irving has scored 17 points with eight assists in 37 minutes in two games since his return. This is a huge game between the top two teams from each conference, and I expect it to be a battle. I'll take the Cavs getting a bunch of points.
Art Aronson
Cavs vs. Warriors
Play: Cavs +7
The Cleveland Cavaliers will look to exact a little revenge on Christmas day after getting ousted by the Golden State Warriors in the Finals last season. While we wouldn't be shocked by an outright upset, we will in the end recommend a second look at the visitors and the points as we think the Cavaliers can keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The last time Cleveland was an underdog it lost 99-84 at Miami on December 5th, but since then it's won six straight, going 4-2 ATS in the process. So not only do the Cavaliers play with revenge, but they also play with a much healthier overall lineup than when Golden State last faced them, with point guard Kyrie Irving finally back into the mix, as well as big man Kevin Love in the paint. The Warriors have had their way with every team in the league so far this season, but they're going to be in for a battle and we think the aggressiveness that the visitors play with on the defensive side of the ball will prove to be a big difference maker. We're not expecting either side to run away with this one, it is going to be a war and in a contest which we feel will come down to the wire, all signs do indeed point to the points as the savvy move.
Jimmy Boyd
Rockets +7
The Spurs come into this game having won and covered 8 straight games and as a result we are finding some great value with the Rockets as decently priced home dog on Christmas Day. Houston is a team that almost everyone was high on coming into the season, but that hype has faded with the Rockets coming into this game at 15-15.
While Houston isn't playing up to the level that we expect to see, given the talent on their roster, they have been playing much better of late. The Rockets are 10-5 over their last 15 games and have been playing extremely well at home, where they have won 6 straight and covered each of their last 5. That includes impressive back-to-back wins over the Clippers (107-97) and Hornets (102-95) in their last 2 home games.
Some teams just matchup well with others and that's been the case for the Rockets against the Spurs. Houston has actually won 5 of the last 8 in the series with a 6-2 ATS record in these games. When you just look at their home games against San Antonio during this stretch, the Rockets have won 3 of 4 and are a perfect 4-0 ATS.
The fact that Houston comes into this game off back-to-back games against the Eastern Conference is worth noting, as the Rockets are 21-9 ATS over the last 3 seasons after playing 2 straight non-conference games and 16-5 ATS over the last 2 seasons when playing at home after playing their last game against a team from the eastern conference.
Scott Spreitzer
Cavs vs. Warriors
Play: Cavs +6½
We all know about the rematch of the most recent NBA Finals, won by the Golden State Warriors. But this matchup is a bit different, and not just because there isn't as much on the line. It's different because the Cavs will have a healthy Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving on the floor. Cleveland is also rounding into form, winners of six straight games, while playing an incredibly stingy brand of defense. The Cavs have held their last six opponents to 87.2 ppg. We don't doubt Golden State is one of the two best teams in the league, along with San Antonio, but this will be their first game of the season against the Spurs, Thunder, or Cavaliers, the three teams who're likely to present the Warriors with their toughest obstacles in an attempt to win two straight titles. The Cavs own the depth to challenge Steph Curry when the Warriors are on the offensive end and I believe they'll keep the contest close to the very end.
Hollywood Sports
New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat
Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans (9-19) tips off the Christmas NBA five-game slate having won three of their last four games after a 115-89 win over Portland on Wednesday. The team is playing much better basketball with Anthony Davis healthy again while becoming more comfortable to first-year head coach Alvin Gentry's system. The Pelicans have then covered the point spread in 5 of their last 7 games after a win by at least 10 points. New Orleans has also covered the point spread in 5 of their last 6 road games against teams with a winning percentage over 60% on their home court. Miami (16-11) is 12-6 at home but they have lost two of their last three games after a 93-92 loss to Detroit. The Heat are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games at home. And while the Heat nail 46.5% of their shots, the Pelicans have covered the point spread in 20 of their last 28 games against teams that hit at least 46% of their shots.
SPORTS WAGERS
New Orleans/Miami Under 99 1st Half
This is the first game of five on the NBA's Christmas menu and this is a wager we make every season because it's been such a profitable one over the years. The angle is to go under the number in the first game of the day because it's such an early start for these NBA teams that are essentially on holidays. We're rather certain that many Heat players gathered with family and friends last night to celebrate Christmas with a few cocktails and a healthy (big) meal. The Pelicans likely didn't go to bed early either. We highly doubt either one of these teams is going to be shooting lights out or hitting a high percentage of their shots, especially in the first half and/or first quarter. When playing an under in the NBA, we prefer to play it in the first half because it eliminates OT and it also eliminates us getting burned should it become a foul game for one team that might be down four or less in the closing minute. Furthermore, intensity levels are usually high for all teams on Christmas Day, as the national spotlight is on them. High intensity means stronger defense.
Big Al
San Antonio vs. Houston
Pick: Over
This will be the first meeting between these two Lone Star State rivals this season. Last year, they met four times, and the Spurs won three of the four, with those three wins all going 'over' the total. But you can throw out the one game which the Spurs lost (and which went 'under' the total). In that game, coach Gregg Popovich rested Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, effectively "mailing in the game." Thus the Spurs' starting five included Matt Bonner and Aron Baynes, so not surprisingly, they only mustered 81 points. But in the last three meetings, the Spurs scored 110, 110 and 104 points against the defensively-challenged Rockets. This season, Houston ranks #23 in defensive rating, and is giving up 105.6 ppg (#27 of 30).
Joe Williams
Spurs at Rockets
Play: Rockets +7
The Rockets have played well at home lately, covering five straight. They're also 6-2 ATS in their past eight against Western Conference teams. In addition, the home team has covered in six straight in this series, with the Spurs just 2-8 ATS in the past 10 meetings, and 0-5 ATS in their past five trips over to Houston.
Vegas Butcher
Oklahoma City Thunder -9
Bad matchups for the Bulls here. They rank 27th in Offensive-Efficiency, 27th in eFG%, and 24th at getting to the FT-line. No easy points for them here. Without Noah they also lose some size and rebounding ability, as well as defensive presence, with the 2nd unit. OKC has too much firepower for Chicago. The Thunder lost to the Bulls early his year but they were in a b2b and 4in5 spot, with travel for each of those 4 games. Now at home and in a better physical spot, I expect them to exert their revenge in front of the national audience.
San Antonio Spurs -7
Here we have an elite defensive team as the Spurs rank #1 in Def-Efficiency, #1 in eFG% allowed, #1 in defensive rebounding rate, and #1 in defensive FT-rate allowed. Houston is reliant on getting to the FT-line and on offensive boards, as their offense isn’t as efficient as in years past. The Spurs just don’t allow easy points like that. San Antonio ranks on the level of the Warriors in point-differential and I like their chances of a strong game against Houston today.
Bruce Marshall
Oklahoma -13.5
Harvard hanging around in this Diamond Head Classic, but trading points with Oklahoma looks a tall order. Not sure Tommy Amaker will be able to slow the pace accordingly, and Sooners (scoring 88 pgp) have plenty of firepower, with G Buddy Hield leading devastating transition game. Crimson hard-pressed to keep OU from hitting the 80s.