Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, December 9

Hollywood Sports

Iowa at Iowa State
Prediction: Over

Both of these clubs are looking to create offensive opportunities by pushing up the tempo of the pace in their games. The national average for possessions per game in Division 1 college basketball is 67.4. Iowa State (6-3) is averaging 69.2 possessions per game (80th in the nation) while Iowa is averaging 69.7 possessions per game (62nd in the nation). Since both these teams will be comfortable with this faster tempo, look for both teams to each have a total number of possessions in the mid-70s -- which will make the Total that opened at 149 in real jeopardy against these two teams that are not playing stellar on the defensive end of the court. Iowa has played 4 straight games Over the Total against teams with a winning record. And in the Hawkeyes last 6 games on the road as an underdog, Iowa has played 5 of these games Over the Total. Iowa State has played 5 straight games Over the Total as a favorite in the 7-12.5 point range. They also have played 6 straight games Over the Total against Big Ten opponents. Additionally, while Iowa lost their first true road game of the year on Wednesday to Northern Iowa by an 80-60 score, the Cyclones have played 6 of their last 7 home games Over the Total against teams with a losing record on the road. Both of these teams will be happy to see the winner of this game score at least 80 points which is a great recipe for the Over. Take the Over in this one.

David Chan

Carolina Hurricanes @ Winnipeg
PICK: Winnipeg

The 9-17-4 Carolina Hurricanes storm into Winnipeg, looking to ground the 12-11-4 Jets.

Cam Ward is set to face off against Chris Mason between the pipes (this is the first game of a back to back for the Jets who have a tough one in Detroit vs. the red hot Red Wings tomorrow night).

The Jets are 7-2-1 their last ten, after beating Boston 2-1 on Tuesday:

“Every player on the team was brand new to (coach Claude Noel) and he had to get to know every one of them and know which buttons to push and how to work.” Andrew Ladd said. “We, as players, had to learn what to expect from him and what he wanted.

“If you’ve looked at the last seven to 10 games, we’ve really turned that corner, we’re playing the way we need to play, playing the system he wants us to play.”

The Hurricanes are coming off a 5-3 win over Edmonton to earn their new head coach Kirk Muller his first victory.

Note Mason was in net for a 3-1 win in Raleigh on November 25th.

The Jets are on fire, and are getting little respect from the oddsmakers here; in my opinion, this is the very definition of "good line value"; you may want to consider laying the price on this hot home side!

Nick Parsons

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side:

The Leafs are 15-10-2-1, including 9-6 on the road; they're coming off a 3-2 OT loss to New Jersey on Tuesday.

James Reimer made 23-saves in the setback:

“Playing a lot of games in just a short amount of days and then the travel last night and then to be down 2-0, we could have thrown in the towel and gave up and we didn’t,” Reimer said. “I thought we dominated for most of the last two periods and that shows a ton about our team. We deserved the two points but we for sure deserved the one point.”

“We weren’t ready to start the game,” said Leafs coach Ron Wilson, whose team was outshot 11-4 in the opening frame. “We just didn’t have our legs and our minds into it and New Jersey was sharp, ready and they took advantage of us.”

On the other bench: The Capitals are 14-12-0-1, including 9-4-0-1 in front of the home town crowd; they're coming off a 5-3 win at Ottawa on Wednesday.

Washington rallied in the third period, led by some inspired play from Alex Ovechkin, who scored one of three straight goals in the final frame:

“We had lots of chances, but we weren’t scoring, so you never know,” Capitals coach Dale Hunter said. “We went four on four and we broke it open there.”

Tomas Vokoun made 31 saves.

The Caps have won two of three.

Bottom line: Washington now has something to build off of, as it looked pretty good on both ends of the ice in that contest.

It catches a road-weary Leafs team that is starting to struggle.

And it also plays with "revenge" here, after getting embarrassed 7-1 at Toronto on November 19th.

Consider laying the price.

Jim Feist

Siena vs Massachusetts
Pick: Massachusetts

The Siena Saints have been overvalued by oddsmakers for a while, on a 7-20-2 ATS run their last 29 games. They are having all kinds of problems, shooting .398 as a team and losing 5 of the last 6 games. The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games. They take on a UMass squad that is 7-2 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 against the Metro Atlantic Athletic. Look for a big win by the home team; Play UMass!

We Cover Spreads

Iowa State-9

With two coaches in their second year I have to give the nod to Fred Hoiberg of Iowa State. He's done a great recruiting job bringing in a total of four transfers that will have Iowa State on the map in the Big 12 this year. Iowa coach McCaffery is also in his second year but I don't see the guys playing up to his system just yet. Given my location here in New York I am very familiar with Fran McCaffery who brought much success to local school Siena making them a powerhouse in the mid-major level. Iowa State has four players scoring in double digits including former Michigan State standout Chris Allen. Talentwise this team clearly outmatches Iowa. Iowa State has deadly perimeter shooters with Chris Babb, Scott Christopherson, and Tyrus McGee. These guys are capable of driving up a lead form beyond the arc. Iowa State also has a clear cut advantage in the paint tonight. They are outrebounding opponents by 8 rebounds per game. They should have no problem on the glass against a small Iowa frontcourt that measures up at 6'7, 6'5, and 6'5. This game can get ugly for Iowa in my opinion. We've watched them lose by 20 to Northern Iowa on the road who is a Missouri Valley school they battle for recruiting every year. They lost by 16 at home to a 4-3 Clemson team and lost by 16 to the mighty Fighting Camels of Campbell University who is a Big South school. We also can't forget the 23 point walloping they took against Creighton on a neutral floor. Iowa State has won the last 3 meetings in Ames by 9 or more points and I think that trend continues tonight. Look for the Cyclones to come up big against their in state rival tonight.

NHL Predictions

Winnipeg Jets -149

The Winnipeg Jets have won 3 straight games improving their overall record to 12-11-4, and their home record to a solid 8-4. Carolina finally gave new head coach Kirk Muller his first NHL head coaching victory in a 5-3 win in Edmonton, but that marked their first win in 8 eight games. The Hurricanes have given up 4.20 goals against per game over their last 5, and 3.79 goals against per game on the road. Winnipeg loves playing in front of their very energetic home crowd, and they are giving them something to cheer about going 6-1 in their last 7 home games. The Jets are averaging 3.08 goals per game at home this season. Their latest victory, a 2-1 win over red hot Boston on Tuesday, was by far the biggest win of the season. Chris Mason will get the start tonight in net for Winnipeg. He is 2-2 with a 2.26 GAA and .906 SV%. Although not confirmed, Cam War should be in net for the Hurricanes tonight. He is 9-12-3 on the year with a 3.28 GAA and .897 SV%. The Canes are 2-8 in their last 10 road games, and 1-5 in their last 6 games following a win. They are also just 1-11 in their last 12 games on 1 days rest. These two teams have already met twice this season, with Winnipeg winning 5-3 at home and then 3-1 in Carolina on November 25th (with Chris Mason in net for that win). The Hurricanes have a hard time finding ways to win, and it is a tough task going against this hot Winnipeg team that is playing great at home as of late. I will gladly lay a bit of chalk to take the Jets at home tonight.

Gridiron Gold Sheet

Iowa St. -9

Iowa has not won away from home this season. Last month a loss to Creighton in Des Moines by a score of 82-59 and then on Tuesday night the team suffered an 80-60 loss to Northern Iowa in Cedar Falls. As for the Cyclones, winners of five of their first six games, they had dropped back-to-back games against the likes of Northern Iowa and Michigan, but were able to get back into the win column on Tuesday night with a lopsided 84-59 final versus Prairie View A&M. While it is true that the Hawkeyes have strong balance in terms of scoring and rebounding, the bottom line is that the Iowa offense just doesn't produce enough points against quality opponents like the Cyclones.

WUNDERDOG

Rider at Florida
Pick: Under 154.5

This is one of those games that should be a rest for Florida after playing a couple of big games vs. Syracuse and Arizona. It is their last time on the floor for over a week during exams. That typically means a less than focused effort. This game will also take place in Jacksonville, with a new set of shooting backgrounds as Florida has played here just seven times over the years, and Rider will make their first visit. The Gators also have to be concerned with their star guards Kenny Boynton and Irving Walker going 5-27 combined in their last game. Rider has buttoned up the defense after allowing 90+ in their previous game to follow with a 6-1 mark to the UNDER in their next game. Play this one to go UNDER the total.

David Banks

Rider / Florida Under

Friday’s small college hoops slate has just one Top 25 team in action with the #12 Florida Gators (6-2, 2-2 ATS) welcoming the MAAC representative Rider Broncs (1-8, 1-6 ATS) into Jacksonville’s Veterans Memorial Arena; tip-off for this one is set to go live on ESPN3.com at 7:00 ET.

Rider went 23-11 SU overall as well as 13-5 SU in conference play and partook in the CIT Tournament just a short season ago, but after managing just one win in their nine games played heading into tonight's battle in Gainesville, the Broncs don't look to be getting an invite from a post season tournament anytime soon. With only a slim 74-72 win over Howard checking in as their only win of the season, it looks to be a long season ahead for head coach Tommy Dempsey’s squad. Save for shooting 71.4 percent from the free-throw line as a team (#87), Rider’s overall stats are head scratching and disgusting at the same time. Forward Danny Stewart and guards Jeff Jones and Anthony Myles are the team's only double-digit scorers for an offense that averages just 68.0 PPG (#183) and shoots 42.4% from the field (#208). Defensively, this team is one of the worst in the country giving up an average of 81.4 PPG (#336) and a healthy field-goal conversion rate of 48.6 percent (#331). The Broncs have dropped their four away games by an average of 16.5 PPG.

Coming in off a 78-72 home win and non-cover in OT against the Arizona Wildcats, the Florida Gators enter this Friday night spot winners in six of their eight games played. Head coach Billy Donovan’s kids have taken part in a pretty tough schedule having already faced Ohio State, Syracuse and the aforementioned Wildcats. Though they stand just 1-2 SU & 2-1 ATS in those games, Florida has proven it has what it takes to compete for the SEC title in 2011-12. Offensively, this team is loaded with talent as five players check in scoring double digits with guard Kenny Boynton's 17.8 PPG leading the way. The Gators have proven to be deadly from beyond the arc when “on” converting at a 40 percent clip (#37) while scoring an average of 86.4 PPG (#4). The defense should be able to flex its muscles in this one, so look for Rider to serve as the sacrificial lambs the Gators need to build some much needed defensive confidence against.

Florida stands a perfect 7-0 all-time at Jacksonville's Veterans Memorial Arena, and won its only game played on a neutral court this season in beating Wright State 78-65 as 20-point favorites back on November 21st. Though Rider stands 19-7 ATS in its L/26 road games, it’s also gone a bankroll depleting 1-10 ATS its L/11 games following a SU loss. Florida has covered eight of its last 11 nonconference games and seven of its L/10 following a pointspread defeat, but checks in with a poor 0-4 ATS tally against sub .400 opposition.

Dave Price

1 Unit Colorado -5

Wyoming hasn't shown it can be trusted on the road, where it is just 2-9 ATS since the beginning of last season with an average losing margin on 16.9 points. It's also worth noting that the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. We'll take Colorado.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit Old Dominion +2½

Bottom Line: Since losing to a very good Northern Iowa team in its opener, Old Dominion has gone 5-2. One of those losses came by just 2 points to Vermont (game was not lined) and the other was a respectable 10-point loss to a loaded Kentucky team to easily cover the 19.5-point spread. Taking the points with ODU looks to be a good option again tonight considering the Monarchs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Plus, the Fairfield Stags are just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the points.

Steve Janus

Colorado -4½

Wyoming comes into this game with an impressive 8-1 overall record, but are extremely overrated at this point in the season. The Cowboys have played a cupcake schedule up to this point. Their toughest opponent to date is Wisconsin-Green Bay, who they lost to 44-52 on the road. Wyoming has covered four straight games against the spread, which has the public jumping all over them and moving the line in our favor tonight.

Colorado is a young team that has showed signs of improvement as the season goes on. They have won four of their last five overall, with the only loss coming at Colorado St 64-65. The Buffaloes beat Fresno State 71-64 last time out, failing to cover the 10-point spread. What a lot of people don't realize is this team had been off for six days prior to that matchup. That much rest can actually take more away from a team than help it. Not only do I expect Colorado to cover the 4.5-point spread on this game, but my projections have them winning this game by double-digits!

Colorado is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, while Wyoming is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Rider +26½

Rider fits into a solid system this evening. Consider that plays on neutral court underdogs off a loss by 10 points or more to a conference rival, provided they are matched up against an opponent off a home win, are 79-39 ATS since 1997. That's a 66.9% win rate. The Gators haven't proven they can be trusted laying big points. In fact, they are just 2-9 ATS since the beginning of last season when valued as a favorite of 10 points or more. The Gators are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 13.0 points or more and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. The Broncs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 contests away from home. Earlier this season, Rider played Pittsburgh to an 8-point game on the road to easily cover a 22.5-point spread. I don't foresee the Broncs keeping this one that close, but I do expect them to keep this one within the generous number.

Jack Jones

Virginia Commonwealth -4

Virginia Commonwealth made it all the way to the Final Four last season. They have been dealt a brutal schedule in the early going this year, but they've managed to get through it at 5-3 thus far.

The Rams have only had two home games to this season, going 2-0 SU & 1-0 ATS while outscoring their opposition 66.0 to 51.5. Richmond is a quality team at 6-2, but they lost four starters from last year and have played an easier schedule than VCU to this point.

VCU is hitting their stride of late. They beat South Florida 69-46 at home before going on the road to top George Washington 75-60. Returning guards Bradford Burgess (14.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG), Troy Daniels (10.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG) and Rob Brandenberg (10.0 PPG, 3.2 RPG) have led the way. Burgess scored 24 points in their win over George Washington, and he played a significant role in their Final Four run last year.

The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. VCU is also 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win, and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win. The Rams have gone 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic 10 opponents as well. Bet Virginia Commonwealth Friday.