Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February, 10

Marc Lawrence

Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

If you ask Mark Cuban, he would probably tell you that his 15-11 Mavs are underachieving a bit on the SU scoreboard. However, their 15-11 ATS record with its 58% return is suiting Dallas supporters just fine. Both numbers would be a whole lot better, though, if the defending champs hadn?t dropped a pair of decisions to the Timberwolves in January. And though we know it?s not quite March, if the Mavs continue to play like they did at the end of January (6-1 SU to close out the month), they will ?come in like a lion? in February. Our database certainly expects a roar from Dirk and company this evening as: defending champions are 15-8 ATS on the road when seeking same-season double-revenge. And that ties in perfectly to Dallas? 33-14-1 ATS mark away in this series when looking for same-season double payback. With Minny entering off a same-season revenger of its own at Memphis and sporting a 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS record after dealing with the Grizzlies, look for the champs to silence the Wolves for the first time this season. We don?t usually butter our bread with road favorites, but we will with this short one in the right role as revenge rears its ugly head tonight in the Target Center. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dallas.

Scott Spreitzer

Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors

While they haven't been winning games, Dwane Casey has brought a defensive mindset to Toronto. The Raptors are the 8th best team in the league in FG percentage allowed, holding teams to 42.9% shooting. While they have allowed over 100 points in each of their last 2 games, they were in both games 'til the end, including an OT loss (ATS win) to Washington. Toronto also has a couple of advantages besides playing a decent brand of basketball on the defensive end. They had last night off, while Boston went to OT against the Lakers (we won with L.A.). And if you watched that game, you know that both sides looked like they were playing with postseason intensity. Boston has covered just 5 of their last 18 when playing without rest - and I wouldn't be surprised if their "A-game" is left at the hotel after crushing the Raptors twice this season. Boston has shown a tendency to play down to their opposition, covering just 9 of their last 28 against teams playing .250-.400 basketball. They're also on a 7-15 ATS slide as road chalk. I'm recommending a play on the Raptors on Friday night.

Rob Vinciletti

Yale vs. Cornell
Play: Yale +3

Yale has won 9 of 10 vs losing teams this season while Cornell has lost 7 of 11 vs winning teams, so I have no problem taking a few points here as Yale also checks in at 4-1 straight up as a road dog of 3 or less, 2-0 after scoring 60 or less and 3-1 off a loss. Cornell is just 0-2 off a conference win and has lost 2 of 3 as a home favorite of 3 or less and 2 of 3 after allowing 60 or less last out. Look for Cornell to cash tonight take the points.

Ben Burns

Carolina Hurricanes @ Colorado Avalanche
PICK: Colorado Avalanche

After losing five straight, their longest skid of the season, the Avs got back on track in a big way last time out. They beat a struggling (but very talented) Chicago team by a score of 5-2. That victory figures to be just what the doctor ordered. Order restored, I feel that the Avs should be able to follow it up with another "W" this evening.

While the recent 5-game losing streak was the Avs first of the season, they have had a pair of 5-game winning streaks, including a stretch where they won nine of 10. So, this is a team which is capable of stringing together victories.

The Avs should be thrilled to see the Hurricanes coming to town. For starters, they're an impressive 10-2 (+9.6) against Eastern Conference opponents. Going back further finds the Avs at 30-18 (+12.1) the past few seasons against teams from the East. During the same stretch, Carolina is a money-burning 19-27 (-6.9) against teams from the West.

Additionally, Colorado has dominated the Canes here over the years. In fact, the Avs are a perfect 7-0 the last seven times that they were a host in this series.

As for Colorado being favored, given the home/road stats of both teams, the price seems more than fair. While the Avs are only a modest 15-14 (15-13-1) here at Denver, the Canes are a terrible 6-20 (6-13-7) away from Raleigh.

Knowing they embark on a tough 4-game road trip after this, the Avs should be really motivated to close out the homestand with another victory. Consider Colorado

Bryan Power

Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

Gonna take a shot here w/ the Ducks as a big dog. Detroit has won 18 straight home games entering Friday yet will be without starting goaltender Jimmy Howard. The All-Star was between the pipes for the first 17 of those victories. The team did manage to beat Edmonton here at Joe Louis, but the Oilers are a club clearly headed in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, despite having just two more points than Edmonton, Anaheim is going in the other direction. I used them Wednesday night in a 3-2 OT win over Carolina. They have now picked up at least a point in nine of their previous 11 games. This is a double revenge spot for the Ducks. Despite the long home win streak, the Red Wings have lost three of their previous six games overall.

Brad Diamond

Harvard vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Pennsylvania +5

If there is a live UPSET in the Ancient Eight it will come down at the Palestra. The Quakers have lost 5 straight to the Crimson, last year getting mauled up in Boston Town. However, we like our chances with trends showing the Quakers 12-5 ATS in the series, whereas offensive minded Harvard is 18-37-1 ATS versus units with a winning home mark. Penn leads the series 127-33, so take the REVENGE minded home team and the points.

Jim Feist

Yale vs Cornell
Pick: Cornell

Yale is 5-1 in the Ivy League but this is the start of a 4-game road trip. The Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record, which Cornell has (8-12), although they are 7-2 at home. Cornell is playing well, winning 2 of 3, losing only to powerhouse Harvard, 71-60 on the road. The Big Red are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Yale is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Cornell and the home team is 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Play Cornell!

SPORTS WAGERS

Philadelphia -4 over L.A. Clippers

We routinely see totals in the low 180's but when the Clippers play, the total is rarely under the mid 190’s. That's because they Clippers are the 4th highest scoring team in the league. They're coming off a loss in Cleveland and despite a 5-5 road record, they have lost to almost every respectable team they've played on the road. After beating the Warriors on the road to open the year, L.A. then dropped consecutive away games to San Antonio, Portland, Utah and the Lakers. They've won four of its last five road games but two of those came by less than two baskets and the other was in OT. They could conceivably be 2-8 on the road and now they'll play one of the best defensive and top home teams in the league. The Clippers are poor defensively and they're poor on the boards, as they rank 25th in both categories. By contrast, the 76ers rank second defensively and 7th in rebounding. They're also 13-4 at home after losing to San Antonio in their last game. A closer look reveals that Philly's last six games have come against Orlando, Chicago, Miami, Atlanta, the Lakers and San Antonio. They exceed the Clippers in almost all categories and even though they score less they hit a higher percentage of their shots. The 76ers are 15-2 when they lead in shot percentage. They're also 10-2 when they out-rebound their opponents and you can count on that hapenning here. Being 15-8 and now without Chauncey Billups, the Clippers’ record is significantly better than they are. Play: Philadelphia -4 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Indiana +106 over MEMPHIS

The Grizzlies are a somewhat respectable 13-13 thus far. However, they've lost seven of their past 10 games and they're too erratic to trust giving away anything to quality opponents. The Pacers are pure quality. They come in here with a 17-8 record. On one day's rest like they have here, Indiana is 11-4 while the Grizzlies are just 10-9. We also like the fact that Indiana has lost four straight to this opponent and all four games were double-digit losses, including last year's 21-point loss here. Guaranteed that the Pacers are aware of the way the Grizzlies have handled them but for the first time in a while, Indiana is the superior team now and you can expect a response. Roy Hibbert is a beast in the middle, as he and the whole front court can seriously fill it up. The Pacers have few weaknesses while the Grizzlies have many. One figures the Pacers to want this one more simply due to the fact that they have four straight double digit losses to this host. Play: Indiana +106 (Risking 2 units).

UTAH +100 over Oklahoma City

The Thunder are scary good. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are the league's most dynamic duo next to LeBron and D-Wade. On an even playing field they would absolutely bury this enthusiastic Jazz bunch but this near impossible situation for the Thunder screams for a play on the Jazz. OKC played in Sacramento last night. They played in Portland on Monday and Golden State on Tuesday. This will be its fourth game in five nights, its sixth game since last Friday and its final game of a five-game trip. Westbrook and Durant played 38 and 42 minutes respectively last night. Not only wll it be the Thunder's fourth in five and sixth game since Friday but one can't ignore the difficulty of playing in the high altitude in Utah under these extreme conditions. After this game, the Thunder will be off all weekend and won't play again until Tuesday. No question they'll be looking forward to three full days off, thus the Jazz and their 11-4 home record should be able to take full advantage. Play: Utah +100 (Risking units).

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Hurricanes @ Avalanche
PICK: Under 5.5

The Hurricanes have been a huge money-maker for 'under' bettors recently, as they've posted a 1-8 o/u mark over their last nine games.

It's not difficult to figure out why. When he's hot, 'Canes goaltender Cam Ward is one of the best in the business. Right now, he's scorching hot, having allowed two goals or less in regulation time in 12 of his last 13 games. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has gone 9-4 over that stretch.

Carolina's offense hasn't exactly been firing on all cylinders lately, scoring two goals or less in five of its last six games. Note that the 'Canes are averaging just under 2.5 goals per game on the road this season.

The Avalanche haven't had much success finding the win column lately, but it hasn't been a product of bad defensive play. They've given up a grand total of five goals in regulation time over their last three games, and haven't allowed more than three goals in a game since January 16th against Phoenix.

The Avs have been one of the best 'under' bets in the league this season, particularly here at home, where they've recorded an 8-17-4 o/u mark.

While Colorado did pot five goals in Tuesday's win over Chicago, it had been held to just eight goals over its previous five contests. Keep in mind, the Blackhawks are in free-fall mode right now.

The last time these two teams hooked up, they combined to score only two goals in regulation time in an eventual 2-1 'Canes win in overtime. In fact, their last two matchups have finished with identical 2-1 final scorelines. I'm expecting another relatively low-scoring affair tonight in Denver. T

Lakers / Knicks Under

ESPNs Friday night twin bill tips off with a doozy as Kobe Bryant leads his Lakers (14-11, 11-14 ATS) into the Big Apple to battle a resurgent New York Knicks (11-15, 11-15 ATS) outfit looking to scalp their fourth straight opponent; The Madison Square Garden tip is set to go at 8:00 ET.

The Lakers current six-game road trip has been anything but kind since the team went into Denver and took advantage of a Nuggets team playing its third game in just four days to pull out the 93-89 outright road win and cover. Since then, LAs road woes have continued with it dropping back-to-back games at Utah and Philadelphia to fall to a pathetic 3-9 SU & ATS heading into Thursday nights clash with the Celtics in Beantown. Los Angeles will be playing this one on no rest; a scenario thats seen them go 4-5 SU & 3-6 ATS on the year. The big three of Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum lead the team in just about every statistical category imaginable, and the lack of solid bench play has really hurt this squad in the dying moments of most of their close games. The Lakers stand 1-2 SU & ATS the three times they were installed road favorites by oddsmakers to date.

Where the heck was Jeremy Lin at the beginning of the season? How on gods green earth did it take Coach Mike DAntoni and his staff this long to put him in the starting line-up? Amare has been dying to play pick n roll with a competent teammate ever since he bolted the desert and ended his beautiful playing relationship with Steve Nash. Though the big man only got to play with him once before tragedy struck his family, the Knicks have been benefitting from his tenacious style of play since being installed into the starting line-up against the Jazz. Theres no need to go back and look at the Knicks results pre-Lin, as they were terrible. Just know this, NY will go into tonights contest having won each of their last three games and each of their last six against the closing number; easily their best win streak of the strike shortened season. A win here would pull them even as a host as well as improve upon their 5-8 ATS record.

Los Angeles has made a mockery of this rivalry winning nine of the L/10 meetings and posting a 6-4 record against the spread; the under has cashed in each of the L/3 meetings. LA won and covered all three meetings last season which included going into MSG and handing the Knicks a 113-96 beatdown as three-point road favorites. The road team has covered five of the L/7 in the recent series, but Los Angeles has only covered three of its L/14 games away from the Staples Center. New York has covered each of its L/4 on a full day of rest, but has only come out a pointspread victor in one of their L/9 tussles against Pacific Division opposition.

WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles at Philadelphia
Pick: Under 186.5

The Los Angeles Clippers are enjoying the spotlight with their high wire act in the paint in Blake Griffin, and top shelf distributor at the point in Chris Paul. Questions now arise with the missing experience of Chauncey Billups and his 15 points per game, 30 minutes a night, and 4 assists to complement Paul. They come to Philadelphia who has been iron clad and smothering at home on the defensive end where they have kept six opponents in the 70s or less on the season. They have come back taking it personally after allowing 100+ to go 7-0 to the UNDER in their next game. Overall they are 16-5 in their last 21 to the UNDER as a home favorite. The Clippers haven't had success either when facing a team that allowed 100+ in their previous game to produce a 6-1 mark to the UNDER in their last seven. Play on the UNDER.

John Ryan

Brown vs. Columbia
Play: Columbia -9½

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Columbia will win this game by 10 or more points. Columbia has a huge edge in rebounding and this will be a dominant reason this game may turn into a 15+ Columbia win. The sim shows a high probability that Brown will have a minimum of four fewer rebounds than Columbia. In past games Brown is just 3-12 ATS when they have had four to nine fewer rebounds than the opponent since spanning the past three seasons. The sim shows a high probability that Brown will not score more than 60 points in this game and is past games Brown is just 1-8 ATS when the fail to score more than 60 points. Take Columbia

Jack Jones

Atlanta Hawks +5

The Atlanta Hawks are showing solid value tonight as a 5-point road underdog to the Orlando Magic. Orlando is getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers due to their upset home win over the Miami Heat last time out. This sets them up for a big letdown spot Friday.

Atlanta is one of the most underrated teams in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks check in at 17-9, including 8-5 on the road where they are only giving up 89.5 points/game and 42.1 percent shooting. The Hawks put an end to a three-game losing streak with a 97-87 victory over Indiana last time out to get back on track.

Atlanta has absolutely owned Orlando against the spread over the last few seasons. The Hawks are 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings with the Magic. This is simply an excellent match-up for them as they have the bigs inside who can contain Dwight Howard.

Orlando is 0-8 ATS in their last 8 off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival. The Magic are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 after having won 4 of their last 5 games. Orlando is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. I simply believe the Magic are overvalued tonight. Bet Atlanta Friday.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit Loyola Maryland +2½

With first place in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference on the line and an 11-point loss at Iona on Jan. 15 also stoking the fire, expect the Greyhounds to take care of business on their home floor this evening.

Since that loss to the Gaels, the Hounds have been on a mission. They've rattled off 6 consecutive double-digit wins and covered the spread in 5 of those contests.

Loyola has been tough as nails all season at home where it is 8-1 and outscoring opponents by an average of 8.4 points. Iona knows how tough it is to beat the Greyhounds on their home turf all too well. Last season, the Gaels marched into Loyola as a favorite and walked away with a 3-point loss.

The fact the Gaels are coming off an ATS win is reason for concern considering they are only 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a cover. The Greyhounds, meanwhile, are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS victory. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. We'll take the points.