Steve Janus
Milwaukee Bucks -1
Milwaukee comes into this game off a 105-99 road win against the Raptors on Wednesday. That win improved Milwaukee's road record to just 4-10 on the season, so I could see where it would be hard for people to back the Bucks to win back-to-back away from home. Considering how bad the Bucks have been on the road, the fact that they are favored in this game should tell you something.
This is definitely a prime spot for Milwaukee to capture another rare road win, as the Cavaliers are expected to be without sensational rookie point guard Kyrie Irving. If you don't think the loss of Irving will have an impact on this game, you must have a pretty short memory. Cleveland was arguably the worst team in the NBA last year, and it wasn't until they drafted Irving did they start to become competitive. Not only are the Cavs expected to be without Irving, but starting shooting guard, Anthony Parker, is also expected to miss tonight's game.
It would be one things if the Cavaliers were a dominant home team, but they are just 5-5 on their home floor this season. Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, and I fully expect them to win this game tonight!
Teddy Covers
Indiana @ Memphis
PICK: Under 184
The Grizzlies have been Under machines in recent weeks, cashing Unders at a 9-2 clip in their last eleven ballgames. Many of those totals haven’t even been close, like their last game against Minnesota, an 85-80 brick fest that stayed Under the total by 25 points. Heck, the Grizz even played an OT game against Denver that stayed Under the total, despite the extra five minutes of playing time.
Why is Memphis playing Unders? Two reasons. First, their offense isn’t working without the injured Zack Randolph in the lineup. They haven’t scored more than 96 points in regulation throughout this eleven game run to the Under, and have been held to 85 or less on six different occasions during that span. The Grizz have been forced to rely on their mediocre (at best) perimeter shooters for the majority of their production, and frankly, that strategy isn’t working right now.
Secondly, the Grizzlies continue to play solid defense on a nightly basis. They don’t give up many transition buckets and defend the half court well; a top ten team in numerous defensive statistical categories including points allowed. So is Indiana. And we’re catching the Pacers off a particularly poor defensive showing in their last game, a ten point loss at Atlanta. Pacers head coach Frank Vogel following that defeat: “You’re not going to win these games giving up 28 fast-break points, period.” Expect a concerted defensive effort for the road team here, keeping this game Under the posted total. Take the Under.
Vegas Experts
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
Play: Miami Heat
The Miami Heat take on the worst team in the leage, the Washington Wizards. The Wizards have only won five games all season and have not done very well against the spread with their 8-18 ATS record so far this season. The Heat are coming off a loss to Orlando 102-89 and will bounce back with a huge win over a terrible Washington team. They are laying just over 12 points and should easily cover this one with a blowout win.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Charlotte Bobcats +13.5
It hasn't been wise to lay this much chalk on the Bulls, who are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11.0 points or more. It has been wise, however, to back the Bobcats when catching big points. They are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. Charlotte will be the fresher team tonight as this will only be its 4th game this month. This will be the 6th game in February for the Bulls. The Bobcats have played well in their last two, earning covers at Phoenix and Boston. Plus, they have either won or lost by 13 points or less in 14 of their last 15 against the Bulls. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* Milwaukee Bucks -1
The Cleveland Cavaliers are without their best player in PG Kyrie Irving, who is out with a concussion. Irving has been the biggest reason why the Cavaliers have been competitive this season. He leads the team in scoring (18.0) and he's second in assists (5.1). After winning at Toronto last time out, I look for the Milwaukee Bucks to pick up a second straight road win tonight over the Irving-less Cavaliers. The Bucks are one of the more underrated teams in the league this season as they've gotten through a very tough schedule at 11-14. That includes two wins over the Miami Heat, proving they are for real. Milwaukee has won three straight over Cleveland by 7, 20 and 14 points. The Bucks are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 1 days rest. Milwaukee is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Bucks are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings in Cleveland. Take Milwaukee and lay the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit Wright State -2.5
Wright State lost by just 1-point loss at Wisconsin-Green Bay on Jan. 14, and I like the Raiders to have their revenge here. Wisconsin-GB is a miserable 0-11 on the road this season, losing these games by an average of 13.0 points. Plus, Wright State has won 9 in a row at home over the Phoenix with those 9 wins coming by an average of 9.1 points. Take Wright State.
Tony George
LA Lakers -3.5
Line shooting up, but still bad news for Knick Backers. The Knicks two best weapons are out, Mello and Stoudemire. Usually on a 5th game on a road trip from an opposite coast team like the Lakers, off an OT game the night before would be an AUTOMATIC go against, but with the Knicks running at about 50% of their strength with both playmakers out, this is a spot where LA can go with back to back wins on a road trip. The backcourt of LA is better, Bynum and Chandler a wash and the frontcourt of NY is outmatched here. LA playing some solid defense too. Doubt they take the night off.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Orlando Under 182.5: Defense is the key to this one and both teams have been playing excellent at that end of the floor this year as the hawks have allowed just 91.3 ppg, while the Magic have allowed just 91.6 ppg. On the road the Hawks have been even stingier where they have allowed just 89.5 ppg on 42% shooting, while in their last 3 away from home (regulation only), they have allowed just 78.3 ppg. Orlando's offense has been getting it going of late as they have put up 100 ppg in their last 5 games, but they are coming off a huge game with Miami and there are internal problems with Howard so this team might not be that focused at the offensive end tonight. Atlanta has averaged just 9.3 ppg on the road, while in their last 5 overall they have put up just 90.2 ppg. I expect this to be a defensive struggled tonight as both teams have been excellent at that end of the floor this year. This game should fall in the 170's with ease.
Oklahoma City/ Utah Under 201: Google News Play. On the surface it would look like a great over play as the Thunder's first 4 games on this trip have averaged 215.8 ppg, while Utah's last 5 games have averaged 201 ppg, but as Lee Corso always says "Not so fast my friend". This is the Thunder's 4th game in 5 days and their 2 time playing in BB games over that stretch and that has to have an effect on this team, especially when it comes to shooting the ball. Tired legs wont help them score as much or play the uptempo game they are used to. . What also won't help them score as much is the fact that Utah has allowed just 92.9 ppg at home on the year. Utah has averaged 99 ppg at home this year, but just 97.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall and while they will be playing a bad team< i don't expect them to hit more thn 95 in this one as the pace of the game should be slowed down, limiting the scoring chances of both teams. Judging by the numbers in the first part of this write up the OU line should be higher, but it stands at just 201. Hmmmm. Seems like someone wants us to take the Over but Ill head the other way and expect a game in the low 190's.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Chicago/ Charlotte Under 182.5: Talk about some tired legs. This will be Chicago's 8th straight on the road, so their shooting legs may not be all there. The Bulls have allowed just 87.7 ppg overall and 91.8 ppg on the road, while in their last game they allowed just 67 points to New Orleans. Charlotte has averaged just 87.2 ppg overall and 82.6 ppg in their last 5 games and should really be held in check by Chicago tonight. I really don't expect more than 80 from the Bobcats, while Chicago's tired legs should keep them at best 95 points.
UTAH +1 over Oklahoma City: I kinda like this play as well. OKC is playing their 4th game in 5 days (all on the road), while Utah has had a couple days rest and they are at home where they have gone a solid 11-4 on the year. This game should be close till we hit the 4th quarter, where i expect the Jazz to pull away from this tired team.
1 UNIT PLAY
DETROIT -2.5 over New Jersey: New Jersey has lost 4 in a row, while Detroit has won 3 in a row, including a win at NJ on Wednesday. Gonna go with the hotter team playing at home.
Accuscore
New York Knicks (+3) vs. Los Angeles Lakers
If it wasn’t for the Knicks’ improved point guard play and recent surge I would have picked the Lakers. The Knicks have won three straight, granted against bad teams, but what’s important is how they won. They are playing better team ball behind a point guard in Jeremy Lin that can correctly run a pick and roll. The Lakers are awful on the perimeter and will have a difficult time containing the Knicks’ guards. Los Angeles has the advantage down low, but as long as New York’s Tyson Chandler and company can clog the lane and rebound effectively the Knicks should be okay. AccuScore gives the Knicks ats pick a 51.2 percent chance of success.
Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) at Utah Jazz
OKC failed me big time last night, turning the ball over 23 times and losing to the now 10-16 Sacramento Kings. However, I like this pick because the spread is so small and the Thunder has lost two straight just once all year. I’m expecting Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook to play angry and will the team to victory against a poor Jazz defense. AccuScore gives the Thunder a 61 percent chance of covering the spread.
Philadelphia 76ers (-4) vs. Los Angeles Clippers
This is a tough pick because both teams are solid and will be legit contenders in the playoffs. What it all comes down to tonight is home court advantage. The Sixers are 13-4 at home and give up just 83.9 points in front of their fans. The Clippers, on the other hand, are a bad road team. They give up over 100 points per game and are just 5-5 away from Los Angeles. On top of all of that, Philadelphia has yet to lose back to back home games. This pick is an AccuScore hot trend, and four stars pick.
Sharky Sports
Lakers -4 (-105) for 3 units
I think the Lakers are extremely under-valued here for various reasons. First off, they are coming off of a tough OT win at Boston last night, and traveling to New York to play a completely different style should be difficult. A second reason that I think the line is deflated is due to the Knick’s recent success with Lin in the starting line-up, something which I don’t quite buy into yet as these wins have come against 3 of the worst teams in the NBA. This will be a huge test for the Knicks tonight, one that will come against the BEST defense in the NBA in the Lakers and they will have to face it without Carmello and Amare. The Knicks have struggled the most this year against solid defensive squads where they look extremely stagnant and rely on contested outside shots. I don’t think they’ll have nearly enough offensive options to counter the Lakers tonight who finally seem to be getting into a decent offensive flow and finding an identity. I think there is a lot of value in the Lakers tonight. I wish I jumped on the line at -2.5, but I still capped this as at least a 7 point Laker win. I am a little worried about the “Acela Angle” of travelling from Boston to New York with no days of rest, but I think this is already incorporated into the line already.
Pistons -3 (-103) for 2 units
This match-up features two of the NBA’s worst, but Detroit has been looking better and better at home. What is weird about this match-up is that these two teams faced each other 4 days ago in New Jersey where the Pistons won by 7. I think there will be a similar outcome tonight. The guard combo of Stuckey and Knight have really been effective as of late, and the Pistons have a sizable edge down low with Greg Monroe. Detroit is ranked last in the NBA in defense, but in the recent match-up the roles really seemed to reverse as the Nets let up 29 assists and only forced 12 turnovers. If Detroit can limit their turnovers again tonight, they have a clear advantage. I think they will take care of business at home tonight.