Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 11,2011

Marc Lawrence

San Antonio Spurs at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers

There haven't been too many bumps in the road for the Spurs this season as they enter Philadelphia sporting the best record in the NBA. Their one Achilles heel has been against Eastern Conference foes off a loss where they stand just 3-5-1 ATS, including 1-3 on the road. Toss in the Sixers 16-4 ATS mark in this series, including 8-2 ATS on this floor, and suddenly we're looking at a potentially live home dog. Stay at home in the City of Brotherly Love with the 76ers here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Philadelphia.

Frank Jordan

New Orleans Hornets vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Orlando Magic -9

Orlando has won back to back games and has pulled within even for second place with Atlanta just five games back of Miami. At home this season Orlando is 19-7 and 11-9 against the West. New Orleans has hit a tail spin losing four in a row, are under .500 at 12-15 on the road, but are feasting on the East with a 16-6 record. In this one look for Orlando out of the East to feast on the Hornets and win for the 20th time at home. Play Orlando

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Anaheim Mighty Ducks @ Calgary Flames
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

Both teams are making a push to the playoffs, but I expect the home side to stumble on Friday night:

The Ducks are 30-21-2-2 this year; they've won four of five, including back to back wins at Colorado (3-0), and then in Vancouver on Tuesday (4-3).

Anaheim is in fact 12-4-0 in its last 16; the victory over Vancouver was its fourth straight road win.

A big factor working in our favor here, is the return of Ryan Getzlaf, who returned to the lineup vs. Vancouver and got an assist after missing the previous 14 games from injury.

Defenseman Francois Beauchemin returns to the Ducks after being acquired from Toronto on Wednesday, and his veteran presence will be a welcomed addition for the defensive unit.

It's reported that Curtis McElhinney will make a fourth consecutive start in this game; Jonas Hiller continues to struggle with lightheadedness after being smoked in the facemask with a shot in the All-star game.

On the other side of the rink: Calgary has won eight of nine, including two straight, most recently a 5-2 drubbing of Ottawa on Tuesday.

It's true that Miikka Kiprusoff has been on fire of late, and let's not take anything away from his recent stellar play; however, another key factor working against his team is its game the following night in Vancouver; although Brent Sutter will be stressing that they'll be focused on the task at hand, it's hard to believe that Calgary won't be caught "looking ahead" to that key divisional matchup against the the leagues top team.

Bottom line: A great "situational value" play here; consider a second look at the ANAHEIM DUCKS on Friday night!

Jim Feist

Suns vs. Jazz
Suns +6½

A tough spot for the home team, as Utah is having trouble defensively and now faces the run and gun Suns. Utah is on a 4-10 SU/ATS run and Coach Jerry Sloan spent more than 30 minutes behind closed doors Wednesday following Utah's tough 91-86 loss to the Chicago Bulls. "It was a tough loss," said Jazz guard Deron Williams, who was held to 11 points and committed five turnovers. Phoenix has been on a nice run, evening beating the Celtics and Warriors as a dog each time. Play the Suns.

Brent Brooks | CBB Sides

Yale +12

Yale has been fairly strong in Ivy League play so far this season. The Bulldogs are winning games they should win and remaining competitive in games they lose - most notably at Princeton. Greg Mangano presents some challenges to the Crimson and should lead Yale to an ATS win here.

Loyola, Md -11

Niagara kicked Marist all around the court in their last game. Big deal. They have had a terrible year and have never recovered from losing Antoine Mason to injury. The Purple Eagles have yet to show that they can go on the road and be competitive. The Greyhounds are a solid team this year. While they have been offensively challenged in recent seasons, they are putting more points on the board this year. There are few better defenses to score against than Niagara's. This has the makings of a 15+ point win for Loyola-MD as Shane Walker has a field day on the post.

Brad Diamond Sports

Charlotte -6½

Still not excited about the Nets OT win over New Orleans this week, especially considering the Bobbies are on the up-tick. When you factor in the return of Kwame Brown for Charlotte a major edge in board power is logged when facing the guard oriented Nets . In the two series events this season, the Bobbies have won each taking home a +10 rebounding edge. However, the staggering loss to Indiana (playoff positioning) on Wednesday, must be vindicated this evening, if Charlotte is to accrue some level of comfort with major games on-deck. Also, the Bobbies need more offensive contribution on the front line to balance their attack. Despite the series edge, I would not look for a flat home unit this evening. Technically, the Bobbies have played ten straight games as an UNDERDOG, but now show as a -6 ½ chalk overnight. The Nets are 3-24 SU (10-17 ATS) on the road and 0-4 ATS recently as a road dog. Further, the Nets board at 5-17 ATS on the road in this price range and 4-12 ATS off an ATS win (New Orleans).

SPORTS WAGERS

NY ISLANDERS +120 over Pittsburgh

The Penguins have won six of eight games including a 2-1 OT victory last night over a Kings squad that was beginning to heat up. What that win last night did was create a complete overlay here because that win was an illusion. The Kings dominated the first and third periods and the whole OT session was played in Pittsburgh’s zone. The Pens had very few chances the whole game and it was a rather unlikely win. Pittsburgh resembles a good minor league club right now and even when they were completely healthy the Islanders have given them trouble. The home team in this series is 21-7 over the last 28 games and now the Islanders will face a completely wounded and very beatable club. The Pens played hard last night and they played to prove a point. They did it but it wasn’t pretty and there’s not a good chance they’ll get beat here, there’s a great chance. Wrong side favored. Play: N.Y. Islanders (Risking 2 units).

DALLAS +100 over Chicago

The Stars are still in a bit of a funk but they’re expecting a rare sellout tonight and when that occurs this is one of the toughest buildings in the league to win at. They’ll also face Marty Turco as oppose to Cory Crawford and that, too, adds to the Stars appeal. Turco played for Dallas for seven seasons and who better to know his weaknesses than the guys that were shooting on him in practice for years. Besides that, he’s not very good to begin with and a slower Turco facing snipers that know his tendencies is not a pretty picture for the Blackhawks. Chicago will play its fifth straight on the road and this one comes after the dreaded three-games to Western Canada that NHL players have called the most exhausting three-game stretch of the season for years. In a desperation position in the final leg of that trip, the Blackhawks beat Edmonton 4-1 but in no way were they that much better. Dallas has just seven regulation losses at home this season in 28 games and thus, we’ll go with the best of it here and play the Stars in regulation. Play: Dallas +100 (Risking 2 units).

COLUMBUS -½ +135 over Colorado

The Av’s have a great history against the Jackets and that’s even more reason to play Columbus. In fact, Colorado has won six in a row in this series and the Jackets have to be sick of losing to this team. Now the Jackets are playing extremely well while the Av’s can’t get out of their own way. Columbus shot out of the gate with a 14-6 record before they lost their way. They have their swagger back and had won three in a row and five of seven before losing 3-2 in its last game to the red-hot Sharks in a game they were clearly the better team. Colorado has one win in its last eight. They’re tooth and nails to score a goal these days and neither goaltender has been sharp all season long. They keep switching from Petr Budaj to Craig Anderson hoping that one will step up but that has yet to happen. Budaj and his .897 save percentage gets the call tonight. Anyway, as mentioned earlier, the Blue Jackets are sick of losing to this familiar enemy and couldn’t have handpicked a better time to get this proverbial monkey off their backs. Play: Columbus -½ +135 (Risking 2 units).

Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New York Knicks
Play: New York Knicks +3

The Lakers are right in the middle of their seven-game roadtrip and have won and covered the first three games all against teams with winning records so it has been a very solid start. This includes a huge win last night in Boston as the Lakers were revenging their home loss to the Celtics just 10 days ago. They came back from a 15-point deficit as they held Boston to only 33 second half points and took a huge effort on the defensive end. That puts the Lakers in a tough spot tonight with a game at Orlando on deck. The Knicks are still a game over .500 on the season despite losing on Wednesday at home against the Clippers. They have not been playing well for the month as they are just 5-11 over their last 16 games following a three-game winning streak to start off 2011. Following three straight home wins, New York has gone 1-2 in its last three home games to remain three games over .500 at MSG. The Knicks have a game at New Jersey tomorrow so there will be no lookahead here. The Lakers have won the last seven meetings in this series including the last three in New York. The streak also includes a home win this season by 22 points and that loss for the Knicks happened to be the first one in this most recent 5-11 run so they will be out for some payback tonight. Losing seven straight will require no extra effort from the Knicks but this is the best team they have put on the floor to try and end this Lakers domination and they catch Los Angeles in a great spot for once. New York has been solid this season in revenge roles as it is 10-2 ATS in its 12 games revenging a same season loss this season. Also, the Knicks are 19-6 ATS in their 25 games as an underdog as opposed to being just 11-12 ATS as a favorite and they are 10-2 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in four or more consecutive games. The Lakers meanwhile are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games in the second half of the season against teams allowing 46 percent or more from the floor on defense. 3* New York Knicks

Craig Trapp

Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Phoenix Suns +6.5

Suns are in a back to back but they were winning by nearly 20 the whole game so they rested most of their top players. The Jazz are w/o their longtime coach Sloan and tonight they will really struggle to find their way. Williams is banged up as well so look for PHO to win this one straight up and would not be surprised if UTAH is blown out.

Tom Freese

Miami Heat vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Miami Heat -7½

Detroit 20-33 straight up this year. The Pistons are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games as home underdogs of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Detroit is 3-8 ATS their last 11 games off an ATS win. The Pistons are 3-9 ATS their last 12 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Miami is 38-14 straight up this year. The Heat are 10-4 ATS their last 14 games as road favorites. Miami is 21-8 ATS their last 29 games as road favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Miami is 6-2-1 ATS their last 9 games off an ATS loss. The Heat are 4-0 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game

Tom Stryker

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Portland Trail Blazers -2½

Believe it or not, NBA home teams are on a dismal 22-48-1 ATS run since the beginning of February. Tie that knowledge up with the fact that Toronto is currently on a shocking 1-15 SU and 6-10 ATS run of its own in its last 16 games and you have more than enough support to lay this small number with the Trailblazers on Friday night!

If you're worried about fading the Raptors as a home dog, rest your mind at ease. According to my NBA database, the Dinosaurs are a dismal 17-36-1 ATS priced as a home pup including a miserable 5-18-1 ATS in their last 24 in this role checking in without momentum off a straight up loss. In addition, Toronto has struggled in this series lately posting a soft 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS record in the last nine meetings.

Surprisingly, Portland has performed well on foreign courts notching a respectable 48-32-3 ATS record as of late including a stunning 23-8-1 ATS in this set priced as a favorite of -7' or less. With those two parameters in play and the Trailblazers scooting in with momentum off a SU and ATS victory, this team trend explodes to a jaw-dropping 13-0 SU and ATS in its last 13 tries!

The Raptors are one of the NBA worst defensive teams in the paint and surging Blazers big-man LaMarcus ALdridge will do some serious damage inside tonight. Take Portland.

Scott Spreitzer

San Antonio @ Philadelphia
PICK: San Antonio -3.5

I am well aware of Philadelphia's strong home numbers, not to mention their outstanding overall spread record. But they are simply out-classed in this one and I expect a win and cover by the Spurs. San Antone have won and covered four straight. They crushed the Sixers in a November meeting in San Antonio. Philadelphia was going through a rough start to the season in that one and the Spurs rolled, winning by 23 points. Obviously, Philly has played much better since then, currently 21-15 SU in their last 36 games. But Philly finds themselves in a tough league-wide spot tonight involving teams that are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. If those teams are at home and getting between 3 1/2 and 9 1/2 points, and they're in revenge of a road loss by 20 points or more, they've covered just 21 of the last 71 games. San Antonio has won just two of their last 10 trips to the City of Brotherly Love, but the matchups are heavily in their favor in this one. I'm laying the points with the Spurs on Friday night.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Portland Trail Blazers -3

Toronto allows a league-high 48.0 points per game in the paint. That's not a good sign considering how well Portland big man LaMarcus Aldridge is playing. Expect Aldridge to once again be instrumental in a Blazers win this evening. The Raptors have lost 15 of their last 16 games, and things figure to get no easier against a Portland team that has defeated them 5 straight times. It is worth noting that the last 4 wins came by 11 or more points. The Blazers have given us no reason to shy away from them in the small chalk. In fact, they are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. They are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 games as a road favorite of 4.5 or fewer points. The Raptors, meanwhile, are 9-23-1 ATS in their last 33 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or less and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog period. Bet the Blazers.

Cajun Sports

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Portland Trailblazers -3

The Raptors welcome the Portland Trailblazers north of the border for a Friday night matchup with tipoff set for 7:05PM Eastern Time. To say Toronto has struggled this season could be the understatement of the entire NBA season; they are 1-15 straight up their last 16 games. They have also had trouble against the number failing to cover seven of their last eight times to post. The Raptors really struggle on the defensive end of the floor having held just one of their last dozen opponents below the century mark. Tonight’s foe presents a huge problem with LaMarcus Aldridge scoring twenty-seven points per game and shooting fifty-six percent from the floor over their last five contests. Over those same five games guard Wes Matthews has stepped up his game shooting fifty-percent from the field and averaging eighteen points per game. Toronto is 55-79-4 ATS as an underdog, 45-61-1 ATS when playing at home and 16-30-1 ATS as a home underdog. Portland is 76-57-6 ATS as a favorite overall and 33-18-3 ATS as a road favorite. A check of the database reveals a system that tells us to Play ON NBA road favorites after going over the total by thirty-six or more points in their last five games facing a team with a losing record on the season. These road favorites have been solid posting a record of 33-12 ATS over the last five NBA seasons for better than seventy-three percent winners. Our TPR Index projects a Trailblazers victory by 7.4 points over the Raptors on Friday night and the Math Model checks in with Portland having a 5.23-point edge over the current line of -3. Lay the short price with the visitor as the Trailblazers add to the Raptors misery and put another “L” in their column.