Joe Gavazzi
San Antonio Spurs vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: San Antonio Spurs -2½
Last night’s free game on the App Line (714-228-6228) was Denver (College) -2 in their decapitation of the Florida Atlantic Owls (69-42, a 25-point cover). Though you don’t care anything about either of those teams, the money you won on that game, and the 16-5 ATS streak on those FREE WINNERS on a recorded message each day, spends every bit as well as what you win on the more high-profile games. You can’t always “watch and win.” Take the money when you can. 16-5 ATS is a lot of GREEN; it’s been yours for FREE. Get smart! Call 714-228-6228 every day! In this game, what if it were the Boston Celtics or LA Lakers, or even the Dallas Mavericks, who were 44-8 SU for the year? This line would be 4 points higher. Well aware that the Sixers are a resurgent team who have gone 21-15 SU following a 3-13 ATS start. But the Spurs are 31-18 ATS when not laying more than 9 points, and are 12-3 ATS MRT. Their success of their Rodeo Road Trip (so named because the Spurs go on an Eastern swing while the Rodeo is in town each year) continues tonight as they dominate yet another Eastern Conference victim.
Wunderdog
New York Rangers vs. Atlanta Thrashers
Play: Atlanta Thrashers
The New York rangers have done a nice job on the road this season, picking up 17 wins. But right now this team is not playing well at all. The Rangers have been mired in a slump that has left them with five straight in the loss column. The Rangers’ offense can't seem to get any traction right now and over their last eight games has produced just 16 goals at 2 per contest. The Thrashers have not mounted much of an attack themselves lately, dropping seven of their last eight. That bad run has had some bad luck involved as they have suffered three of those in either overtime or the result of a shootout. The one thing they have done is perform well as a home dog where they are 5-0 in their last five. The Rangers have struggled vs. Atlanta cashing just two of the last eight. I like Atlanta here, so I’m playing them to get the win.
Jack Jones
Charlotte Bobcats -6.5
The Charlotte Bobcats get the call Friday as they host the lowly New Jersey Nets. The Bobcats continue being a covering machine under interim coach Paul Silas as they are 13-7 ATS in their last 20 games overall. I certainly like their chances of a win and cover tonight considering how dreadful the Nets have been on the road this season. New Jersey is 3-24 SU & 10-17 ATS in road games this year, getting outscored by 9.6 PPG. This young team simply has not figured out how to win away from home.
This play falls under a system that is 74-38 (66%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (NEW JERSEY) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored < 85 points, off a home win. Charlotte is now 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with the Nets, limiting New Jersey to just 84, 83 and 95 points in those three contests. New Jersey is 25-45 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons. The Nets are 5-17 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. New Jersey is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games. The Bobcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a losing S.U. record. Roll with the Bobcats Friday.
Rocketman
Fairfield @ Manhattan
Play: Fairfield -11
Fairfield is 16-6 ATS since 1997 against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Manhattan is 1-7 ATS at home this year. Fairfield is allowing only 57.5 points per game overall this year and 55.2 points per game on the road this season. Stags are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Stags are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games following three or more consecutive home games. Stags are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Stags are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road favorite. Stags are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 vs. Metro Atlantic Athletic. Stags are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss. Stags are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games as a favorite. Stags are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Friday games. Stags are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall. Jaspers are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games following a SU loss. Jaspers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games following three or more consecutive road games. Jaspers are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games. Jaspers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog. Jaspers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Jaspers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Fairfield tonight!
Ray Monohan
Phoenix Suns vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -6
Tonight from Salt Lake City, we get the NEW LOOK Utah Jazz. I'm playing on Utah -6 because this sudden type of jolt usually works in 1 of 2 ways for the team left without a coach. 1) They go into a deep funk, 2) They pick up their play and really turn on the jets. I expect to see #2. If you live in a bubble and missed it, 23-year coaching vet Jerry Sloan resigned suddenly Thursday. Sloan’s exit comes a night after he became irate when Deron Williams changed a play Sloan had called in a loss to the Bulls. Ultimately, Sloan decided it was time to move on. Assistant Tyrone Corbin, will take over. Utah has lost 10 of its last 14 and is sixth in the Western Conference. They are under-achieving BIGTIME! Their 2nd-season starts tonight, and they'll be lead by center Al Jefferson, who is averaging 23.2 points over his last 6 games. Impressive. Jazz are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. loss. UTA are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Pacific, Phoenix is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Utah. Suns are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Northwest. This is the 2nd of 3 meetings this season. Phoenix won the 1st game of this series 110-94 so we catch UTAH playing on the revenge angle as well.
Info Plays
3* San Antonio Spurs -3
Reasons why San Antonio will cover:
1) Play against - home underdogs (76ers) - revenging a road blowout loss vs opponent of 20 points or more, extremely tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 4 days, as its 54-25 over the last 5 seasons.
2) San Antonio is 16-6 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots this season.
3) Philadelphia is just 6-17 ATS in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Bucks/Grizzlies Under 184
While Milwaukee doesn't quite stack up with the elite teams in the NBA in terms of talent, it has done an excellent job of forcing its will to remain competitive. In other words, the Bucks have been able to control the tempo offensively - slowing the game down - and they have played great defense. As a result, Milwaukee is 30-19 to the Under in all games this season, including 16-6 Under when matched up against teams from the West. Milwaukee has had its most success defensively against teams that don't do a good job of sharing the basketball. Consider that the Bucks are 22-6 Under in their last 28 games in the 2nd half of the season versus poor passing teams averaging 20 or less assists/game. Memphis fits into the category of a lackluster passing team. We'll take the Under tonight.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Milwaukee Bucks +5
Off an embarrassing loss at Washington, the Bucks will be extremely focused when they step on the floor in Memphis this evening. History even supports this claim. Over the last 5 seasons, road teams winning between 25% and 40% of their games, coming off a double-digit road loss, are on an impressive 194-130 (59.9%) ATS Run. Since the beginning of last season, Milwaukee is 16-5 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more, winning these contests by an average score of 97.8 to 96.6. The Bucks will be further motivated by double-digit home loss to the Grizzlies last month. Consider that Milwaukee is 13-4 ATS when out to avenge an upset loss to an opponent the last two seasons. The Bucks are winning by an average score of 96.2 to 92.6 in this situation. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Detroit Pistons +8
Detroit gave Miami all they could handle down in South Beach the last time these teams met up. The Pistons would lose that game 87-88 as a 9-point underdog on January 28th, and getting them at home this time around, we fully expect Detroit to give the Heat another run for their money tonight. Detroit is playing excellent of late, going 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last four games with their only loss coming to the league's best team in the San Antonio Spurs. The Pistons own a winning home record this season, and Miami is only outscoring opponents on the road by 5.9 points/game so there is some clear value with the home dog in this one. The Heat are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers this season. The Pistons are 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) revenging a road loss vs opponent this season. The Heat are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 2 days rest. Take Detroit and the points.
Teddy Covers
L.A. Clippers @ Cleveland
PICK: Cleveland +4
I haven’t bet on the Cleveland Cavaliers once this season. I might not bet on Cleveland again after tonight’s game. But this is one game where the pointspread absolutely stands out like a sore thumb when we look at the spot; one game where Byron Scott’s team is worth supporting as home dogs.
The Clippers are 12 games under .500 for the season. They are 4-18 SU on the road. Their best player, Eric Gordon (I know that Blake Griffin is an emerging star, and he sells tickets, but Gordon was their best player before he got hurt) has missed eleven games this year. The Clips are 3-8 SU without Gordon in the lineup; 1-7 SU on the highway without their leading scorer.
LA has been road favorites once all year, and they won that game at Sacramento by a single point. A one point win isn’t going to cash LA bets tonight. The Clippers are coming off a rare road win, at Madison Square Garden against the Knicks. LA shot 55 percent from the floor, 53 percent from three point range and 81 percent from the free throw line. Those numbers will be very hard to match here, making the Clips a poor choice as road chalk.
As for the hapless Cavs, all I can say is that no team loses forever, and this is Cleveland’s spot. They’ll get point guard Mo Williams back in the lineup tonight after an extended injury absence. They’ll be motivated after getting bawled out by head coach Byron Scott following their sluggish showing at home against Detroit on Wednesday. And the ‘value’ portion of the equation is clearly on Cleveland’s side these days – despite their ineptitude, the Cavs have only lost twice ATS in their last seven ballgames. 2* Take Cleveland.
SPORTS WAGERS
PHILADELPHIA +129 over San Antonio
The Spurs are an incredible 44-8 and to put that into perspective, last season at this point they were 31-21. They basically have the exact same team as they did a year ago only this season every bounce has gone their way. That’s not to say they’re lucky. They’re an experienced, quality club that is all business but they’re not 44-8 good. The Spurs are coming off a game in Toronto in which they trailed going to the fourth. They’ll play their sixth straight on the road and they’re going to play a team that is playing tremendous basketball and remains one of the most undervalued club in the Association. Philly can score, they can rebound and they can play defense. The 76ers have won 12 of 18 and there’s just no possible way this intruder can maintain this ridiculous pace over the remainder of the season. This is an extremely live pooch in a great spot. Play Philadelphia +129 (Risking 2 units).
New Orleans +9 over ORLANDO
Three of the Magic’s last four wins have come over Cleveland, Washington and the Clip Joint. Combined that trio is 4-69 in the situation they were in so you’ll have to excuse us while we crap out pants in awe of the Magic. This is a team that is losing to every good team they play against and it’s no surprise when you consider that stiff Hedu Turkoglu is getting 32 minutes a game and Josh Howard can’t hit a free throw. Furthermore, the Magic have the Lakers on deck Sunday afternoon in the first week without football since late August. The Hornets are in a funk but that’s ok, as it has created an overlay here. This is a solid defensive team that matches up well against the Magic and in what should be a low scoring affair, nine points is a lot of lumber. Play: New Orleans +9 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
O.C. Dooley
Jazz -6
Of course the big news surrounding this late night NBA clash which the ESPN announcers will be dealing with is the sudden resignation of Utah head coach Jerry Sloan after an amazing 23-year run at the helm. Even though the won no league titles in Salt Lake City, Sloan suffered through only one losing season which is the main reason why he was one of the longest-tenured leaders in all of sports. Rumor has it that a halftime dispute with star guard Deron Williams on Wednesday helped cause the sudden resignation. Even before the blowup Williams had been struggling ever since returning to the lineup from a wrist injury. In the past four games Williams has shot below 40% from the field while committing an uncharacteristically high 16 turnovers and one of the reasons is due to constant trade rumors. With Sloan out of the picture, it is a definite possibility that Williams will have a big game this evening. From 2007-through-2010 Utah was one of the best HOME teams in the league winning 82% of the time. Not only are the Jazz below the .500 mark in ATS/HOME appearances this season, they have the most outright losses in Salt Lake City (11) since way back in the 2005 campaign. With Phoenix checking in tonight riding a 10-4 SU/ATS tear, we actually have some line-value with Utah who has ALTERNATED spread wins-and-losses in NINE consecutive outings (that pattern indicates they will successfully cover the spread this evening)