Dave Cokin
UCLA VS. Arizona
Play:Arizona -11.5
There’s not much doubt about the marquee clash on the limited Friday night schedule. It’s round two between UCLA and Arizona, with the Wildcats looking for payback from a narrow defeat against the Bruins the first time around.
The number on this game appears to be right where it should be. But I’m going to rely on some intangibles to try and garner an advantage tonight. First off, there’s the revenge factor. As noted several times over the past couple of weeks, I have a definite preference toward backing higher power-ranked teams with positive momentum when in this role.
Arizona fits on that count. The Wildcats saw their very lengthy home court winning streak come to a screeching halt in a loss to Oregon. But Arizona rebounded from that defeat with a blowout win over Oregon State, and then scored the sweep last week on the road with wins at Washington State and Washington.
Things aren’t going as well for the Bruins. No question this team has a few nice wins this season. But there have been more bad losses, and the recent form for UCLA is less than sensational. They’ve dropped four of their last six, with the only wins against Oregon State and Washington State. Three of the four losses were by substantial margins. ‘
I think it’s entirely possible that UCLA is wearing down. The Bruins have very little depth. The UCLA bench is razor thin, and it looks to me like the major minutes might be taking some toll on the starters.
Arizona is still alive to win the PAC-12. But they need a sweep this weekend of UCLA and USC to have any real chance of catching first-place Oregon and the vastly improved Trojans. First things first, the Wildcats need to make sure there’s no second slip-up against the Bruins. I like their chances of taking care of business tonight, and if the ‘Cats come roaring out of the starting gate, this one could end up being lopsided. I’ll take my chances spotting the doubles with Arizona.
Marc Lawrence
Princeton vs. Cornell
Play: Cornell +8½
Edges - Big Red: 10-2-1 ATS home off a loss of 20 or more points. Tigers: the visiting teams 2-8 ATS in this series. With Princeton eyeing up a bigger battle with Columbia tomorrow night, we recommend a 1* play on Cornell.
Ben Burns
Canadiens vs. Sabres
Play: Canadiens -135
The road team has won both meetings this season and the visitors figure to have the advantage again this evening.
Off three straight victories, the Canadiens have seemingly turned the corner. They've outscored those opponent by an 11-4 margin, most recently a 4-2 win over Tampa. Fans in Montreal can breathe again.
Buffalo, on the other hand, has gone the other way. I played against the Sabres last night and they were routed 5-1 by the Flyers. They've now dropped four straight, surrendering 12 goals in their last two games.
While the Sabres will be playing their second game in two days and third in the past four, the Habs have had the past two days off. That said, the Canadiens, 45-29 (+13.6) the last couple of seasons after scoring four or more goals in their previous game, should have the fresher legs.
That's the opposite scheduling setup from when the teams just faced each other at Montreal on 2/3, a 4-2 win for the Sabres. For that game, Montreal was coming off a loss at Philadelphia the previous night (just as Buffalo is here) while the Sabres had the night off.
Bob Harvey
Penguins vs. Hurricanes
Play: Penguins -106
The Carolina Hurricanes begin a three-game homestand and a weekend of celebration when they host the Pittsburgh Penguins. The puck will drop at 7 PM at PNC Arena where the Penguins are -106 favorites with the total at 5. The Hurricanes, who are honoring the 10-year anniversary of the franchise's lone Stanley Cup title, have won two of the three meetings this season.
The Penguins (27-19-4, 20-33 PL) have won seven of their last 10 games. They blanked the Hurricanes 5-0 on January 17 as Marc-Andre Fleury turned aside all 22 shots he faced. However Pittsburgh was on the wrong end of a shutout on Wednesday, dropping a 3-0 decision to the New York Rangers. Sidney Crosby didn't record a shot on goal to end his 11-game point streak and the Penguins were shut out for the first time in 18 games. They were the league's best team offensively from January 21-February 8, averaging 4.14 goals while winning six of seven games.
The Hurricanes (24-21-7, 35-19 PL) say high-scoring defenseman Justin Faulk is listed as questionable following an undisclosed injury suffered at practice. His 34 points lead Carolina and he’s second on the team with 15 goals behind Jeff Skinner who is riding on a five-game point streak (two goals, four assists).
The OVER is 1-0-3 in Carolina’s last four games vs. teams with a winning record and 1-0-3 against Metropolitan Conference opponents.
The UNDER is 3-1-2 in the last six meetings.
Art Aronson
Penguins vs. Hurricanes
Play: Penguins -106
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
Momentum: The Pens would lose to the Hurricanes last month, but have since gone 5-2-2 and this time the team has goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (13-9-1-2 lifetime vs. Carolina) and Kris Letang back in the lineup.
Dominant special teams: Since that loss to the Hurricanes, the Pens have killed off 25 man advantages out of 25 tries. Also note that Pittsburgh has gone 11 for 32 (34.4 percent) on the power play.
ATS statistics: Note that Pittsburgh is 7-5 (+2.2 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more in its previous game (a 3-0 loss to the Rangers), while Carolina is a brutal 11-20 (-7.8 units) in revenging a loss vs. an opponent.
The bottom line: Three strong factors (momentum, special teams play and strong and relevant ATS statistics) make the PENGUINS a very intriguing investment opportunity, especially at this price.
Jim Feist
Princeton at Cornell
Pick: Under
Cornell is home and No. 5 in the Ivy in points scored. The under is 38-18-1 in the Big Red's last 57 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Cornell is also 12-4 under the total at home against a team with a winning road record, as well as 9-3 under at home. Princeton is tops in the Ivy League in points allowed, 67.5 ppg. Princeton is 10-3 under the total following a spread loss. And when these rivals clash the under is 4-1, including 5-1 under the total on this court.
Rob Vinciletti
Dayton vs. Rhode Island
Play: Dayton -1.5
Dayton is 16-2 vs winning teams and has won 14 of the last 17 in February. They have won all 7 games vs teams ranked 50 to 150 in the RPI Scale like Rhode Island who happens to be 0-6 vs top 50 teams and has lost 17 of 25 as a home dog of 3 or less. RI. has dropped 3 straight to Dayton and is 0-6 this year as a dog. Dayton has won and covered 3 of 4 as a road favorite of 3 or less. Take Dayton.
Will Rogers
Canadiens vs. Sabres
Play: Canadiens -135
Prior to an injury to Carey Price, the Habs were off to one of the best starts in franchise history. It's been a tough couple of months since though, losing six of 25 games in December and January. They might be on the verge of turning things around though, coming into Buffalo as winners of three straight. My money is on the Canadiens.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - Buffalo comes in as losers of four straight, and they've been brutal defensively, surrendering 21 goals during that span. They have lost five of their last six home games against Montreal, and are just 9-16-1 at home this season.
2. Ben Scrivens - Mike Condon really struggled in relief of the injured Carey Price, and it looks like he may have lost his job to Ben Scrivens. The Habs have won three straight with Scrivens conceding just four goals in those games.
3. X-Factor - The Sabres are playing on back-to-back nights, and they are 15-50 in their last 65 games playing on 0 days rest.
Power Sports
Calgary vs. Arizona
Pick: Over
Because the Flames went to a shootout last night (won!), I can only assume that the public will be "lining up" to go against them here. But that could be a mistake. The opponent, Arizona, has lost each of its last five games and given up a TON of goals in the process. Over is the best possible play here.
That three-game win streak has come with a lot of offensive production for the Flames. They tallied five goals in regulation last night in San Jose and then got credit for a sixth by winning the shootout. That came on the heels of two more wins where they scored four times each, all eight goals coming in regulation. As I said before, Arizona is giving up a TON of goals recently. It was only two to Vancouver in a loss Wednesday, but in the four games prior (again, all losses), the total was 21 (all but one in regulation)! The 'Yotes have given up a ton of shots during this time (35.6 per game) and goaltending numbers across the board are terrible.
In fact, this is a matchup of two teams that rank in the bottom three in the league in overall save percentage. Calgary is dead last in that department and will not have Kari Ramo to lean on tonight. Instead, it will be Jonas Hiller, who came in for the shootout last night due to Ramo getting hurt. The back to back situation thus does the Flames no favors here. Over the last five games, they've been fortunate to allow just 2.4 goals per game on an average of 32.0 shots. Their offensive production may decrease a little from last night, but I still expect to see plenty of goals on both sides here. The Over is 12-5 for Calgary this season if they scored 4+ goals the previous game.
Larry Ness
USC at Arizona State
Pick: Arizona State
USC (18-5, 7-3 Pac-12) climbed back into the AP top-25 last Monday at No. 23. The Trojans are one of the top turnaround stories in college basketball this year. Third-year head coach Andy Enfield, who guided Florida Gulf Coast's "Dunk City" squad to a surprising Sweet Sixteen run in 2013 before leaving for USC a few weeks later, wants to see how his team handles success after entering the top-25 rankings for the second time in just seven years. The first time was last month before the Trojans went on the road and were swept by Oregon and Oregon State. "Now we're ranked again and we're on the road again, so we will see if we have learned anything from last time," Enfield told reporters. "You can easily lose on the road in this conference whether you're ranked or not, whether you're overconfident or not, because the road is so hard in this league."
Arizona St (13-11, 3-8) returns home after picking up its first conference road win in almost a year, 67-55 at Josh Hawkinson-less Washington State last Saturday. "You have to win on the road, and we're at the point in the season now where every win matters," head coach Bobby Hurley told the Arizona Republic. "It was nice to get it." Sophomore point guard Tra Holder leads the team in scoring (15.5) and assists (3.6) while senior guard Gerry Blakes (10.9-5.4) and 6-7 senior forward Willie Atwood (10.0-5.1). Joining those three in the starting lineup are the 6-7 Oleka (9.7-5.1) and the 6-10 Jacobsen (7.0-5.1). The 6-6 Goodman (9.9-6.9) and guard Justice (8.3) are the top reserves.
However, USC has better scoring balance than most NBA teams, featuring SIX double digit scorers. That group includes the team's three starting guards, McLaughlin (12.6-5.1 APG), Reinhardt (12.4-3-1) and Jacobs (12.8-5.3-5.9) plus sixth-man Stewart (11.0-4.0). The 6-11 Jovanovic (12.3-7.1) starts up front with 6-10 freshman Boatright (12.2-5.5), while 6-11 freshman Metu (7.0-3.7) and the 6-7 Clark (2.8-4.8) add frontcourt depth. The Trojans have climbed the Pac-12 standings and at 7-3, already have two more conference victories than the team combined for in the last two seasons (5-31) when USC finished dead last in the Pac-12 both times.
That said, it’s hard to ignore USC going 0-2 the week after it last joined the AP top-25 (see above) or that the Trojans will be trying to win tonight for only the SECOND time in their last nine trips to Tempe. A ranked USC team again comes up short.
BRAD DIAMOND
Dayton vs. Rhode Island
Play: Rhode Island +1½
For the home standing Rams (14-10) this could be considered a much needed redemption win vs. hated Dayton. Being at home allows RIU an increased probability of winning and covering with a defense that is allowing 59.8 points per on this floor. Granted the Flyers have talent and resolve inside a 20-3 record #17 nationally. They have won eight straight, covered 5-of-6 road tilts. But, I ask about the number on the Strip "-1-1/2" as we write? No doubt the lines makers fully expect some dividing monies later on as the day progresses, and you can bet on that. Further, the Rams have been a tough luck team suffering close loses over the last month. They have won back-to-back games over George Mason and LaSalle, not much to brag about still a turnaround in success SU. Granted the Iverson (10.4) injury is an issue, not only for the scoring differential, but his 6.6 rebounds per game is needed here. The Rams problems have been scoring, which is not on the level of Dayton. So, expect RIU to slow the pace here to, hopefully, frustrate the Flyers attack. If it ends being a close game as we see it, the Flyers foul shooting (55.6%) ineptness the last five games, just may turn the result into a Rams victory. Remember, the favorite in the series is 3-6 ATS, with major surprises along the way.
JIMMY BOYD
Arizona State +1
The Sun Devils are just 13-11 overall and 3-8 inside the Pac-12, yet are just a 1-point dog at home to No. 23 ranked USC, who is 18-5 and 7-3 in conference play. That says a lot about how much respect the books have for Arizona State and that they feel confident the Sun Devils will win at home tonight, as the public is pounding the Trojans.
Arizona State is a better team than their conference record would indicate. The Sun Devils have been competitive in every game outside of a 17-point loss to Oregon. Despite scoring just 25 points in the first half and shooting 38.2% from the field for the game, Arizona State only lost by 10 on the road against USC. The Sun Devils come into this game off a 75-55 win at Washington State and are shooting 40.2 from 3-point distance over the last 4.
It's also worth noting that this is a tough spot for the Trojans. This will be their first game in 8 days following a 3-game winning streak, which they capped off with a blowout 80-61 win over rival UCLA. With a much bigger road game on deck against Arizona on Sunday, I just don't see USC being able to match the intensity of Arizona State.
Trojans are just 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games after scoring 75+ points in 3 straight games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Sun Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record.
BRANDON LEE
UCLA +11½
While I'm not calling for an outright upset here with the Bruins, I do think we are getting some exceptional value with UCLA in this matchup. Arizona is big public team and oddsmakers have inflated this line with the Wildcats coming in off 3 straight wins. We are also getting value here due to the fact that UCLA has lost 3 of 4, including an ugly 19-point defeat last time out against USC. The Bruins have had a full 7 days to get ready for this game and they desperately need a big win to boost their tournament resume. Keep in mind UCLA defeated Arizona 87-84 at home earlier this season. The last time Arizona won by 12 or more in the series was back in 2009. That's 16 straight games where the Bruins have either won or lost by fewer than the number posted here.
Sleepyj
St. Peter's -8
I'll grab St. Peters here in this one tonight....The Peacocks have revenge here in this one tonight..These teams played a ways back and Niagara took care of business at home...Niagara hasn't been good all year and that win IMO was more of an admiration...The Peacocks have improved since then i believe..Not by much. but enough to get me on them here...Peacocks are coming off a big win after 5 straight losses..3 of those 5 losses came on the road...St. Peter's has the next three games at home and they could win all three games..I'm sure they come out looking for revenge and looking to build off the last win...St. peters actually has a pretty good defense, but the offense is the concern..Now at home I expect them to be much better here...Niagara's offense is down right horrible and the Purple Eagles struggle to defend and to assist the basketball...Not a very good recipe for a road game...Niagara will turn the ball over enough in this game to cause a few good runs for the Peacocks....Purple Wave will also find themselves in foul trouble..Everything adds up for the Peacocks to inch away further and further as this game goes on..Double Digits winner isn't out of the question..Give me St. Peter's in this one tonight.
Wunderdog
USC @ Arizona St
Pick: USC -1
The #23 USC Trojans (18-5) are a powerhouse team at both ends of the court. Six players score in double figures, with the team's balance exceptional. The starters all average between 12.6 and 12.2 points per game, while point guard Julian Jacobs and power forward Nikola Jovanovic average an identical 12.3 points. It makes it impossible to focus on a single player to stop the Trojans' offense. USC has registered 86 dunks in the first 23 games, compared to its opponents' 41. The Trojans are on an 18-8-1 ATS run, including 8-3-1 ATS against a team with a winning straight-up record. The Arizona State Sun Devils (3-8 in Pac-12) are weak all around and 5-12-1 ATS vs. the Pac-12. USC defeated Arizona State 75-65 last month and leads the all-time series 52-38. Take USC.