Jim Feist
Yale at Dartmouth
Play: Yale -9.5
Yale (15-5 overall) is one of only four teams still undefeated in conference play. The Bulldogs lead the nation in rebounding margin at +12.4 and are eighth in offensive rebounds at 14.45 per game. That rebounding dominance was on display in last weekend's sweep of Columbia and Cornell. Yale outrebounded the Lions 35-23 and then had an astounding 56-22 edge on the boards in a 31-point victory over the Big Red. The Bulldogs have won two straight at Lavietes Pavilion, including a 62-52 victory last year, and they are 19-7-3 ATS in their last 29 road games. Dartmouth is home but on a 10-22 ATS run and the road team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Bruce Marshall
Brown +6.5
Not sure what has happened to the Harvard team that opened many eyes during the Christmas week Diamond Head Classic in Honolulu when it beat BYU & Auburn and pushed Oklahoma. But the Crimson (0-for-2016 vs. the number!) have not been close to the same since and have dropped five in a row SU to fall out of the Ivy race before Valentine's Day. Now, Tommy Amaker's side is proceeding minus C Zena Edosomwan (14.2 ppg), Harvard's only DD scorer, but sidelined with a thigh injury. Brown's prognosis a bit better, with spread Ws in its last three. The absence of Edosomwan perhaps opens more space for the Bears' bruising 6-9, 245 C Cedric Kuakumensah (14 ppg & 10 rpg). Note that Brown covered both meetings vs. a better Harvard team last season.
PORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA -110 over St. Louis
OT included. The Blues have been a regular season powerhouse for years and the market still recognizes them as such but we’re not in agreement with that. After winning 11 of its first 15 games of the season, St. Louis is three games under since with an overall record of 30-26. St. Louis is coming off a 2-1 home loss to Winnipeg in a game they were outshot in 33-22. The game before that, the Blue Notes defeated the reeling Wild, 4-1 but they were outshot in that one too, badly, 39-24. The Blue Notes have been held to 25 shots on net or fewer in eight of their last 10 games and in one other game during that span, they had 27 shots on net. The Blue Notes have scored two goals or less in 13 of their past 19 games. What we have here is a grossly overvalued team that is getting far too much market respect. The Blues don’t score much, they don’t create much, they’ve been averaging about eight shots on net per period for well over a month and have been under .500 for the past 3½ months. Against top-10 competition, St. Louis has six wins in 16 tries and they have done all this after playing the 26th ranked strength of schedule in the league. Ken Hitchcock will be out the door soon because the Blue Notes are stale and they’re not improving.
By contrast, the Panthers have been a regular season flop for years and the market is not yet ready to concede that this team is an elite one. Therefore, Florida is not priced like an elite team. Florida’s strength of schedule ranks 10th in the league, which is 16 positions higher than St. Louis. Florida has scored five goals or more in five of their last seven games. That includes five on the Caps, five on the Bolts and six on the Red Wings. They have a recent 4-0 victory over Chicago and in their 3-2 OT loss to the warm Pens last week, Florida outshot Pittsburgh 44-35. The Panthers have answered the bell against the elite teams in the NHL. They are 17-7-3 at home and 32-16-6 overall. The logo on their jersey has them priced like the Flyers here when they should be priced at home like the Capitals or Kings. Value is not always found in the dog. In this case, there is tremendous value in this home favorite because their win expectation is so high, especially against a team that is laboring and that is sinking faster than the price of oil.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ohio +165 over BUFFALO
First, you have a second-season coaching staff at Ohio, with championship pedigree, in its second season. Saul Phillips and some of his assistants – including Bo Ryan’s son – came directly from multi-season Summit League champ North Dakota State and they have Wisconsin backgrounds, too. Buffalo’s staff is Year One and they moved up in class from Division II ball. This is the first of two meetings in 2015-16, so the rookie staff is meeting up with Ohio for the first time. Secondly, you have a key suspension on Buffalo. It’s to leading scorer Lamonte Bearden, a 6’3” sophomore guard. He is the leading swisher at 13½ ppg, and the leading disher at 3½ assists per game. He’s the point guard. The kid playing the point in his place, Jarryn Skeete, is all geeked out about it (“It’s my natural position!”) but he is shooting only 31.6% from the field. That’s pretty darned horrible when you’re tied for the team lead in field goal attempts. Bearden has already missed one game in his suspension, a 71-69 home loss to Toledo in which Skeete shot 4-for-14 (28.6%) and scored only 10 points in 36 minutes.
Ohio has won four of its last five games. They’re 15-8 overall and can tie Buffalo for third in the MAC with a victory here. The Bobcats will also have the two best players on the court for this game in Antonio Campbell and Kenny Kaminski. Campbell is heating up too. He made 10 of 14 from the field and finished with 26 points and 10 rebounds to help Ohio beat Ball State 72-69 Tuesday night. Kenny Kaminski scored 20, including five triples for Ohio. Other than being on the road, Ohio has every advantage here and several big advantages. However, the market sees wins and losses as being the bottom line while we see an opportunity. Caoches have egos too, ya know. Take the four points if you like but we’re calling the upset and will play it that way.
Ray Monohan
Yale vs. Dartmouth
Play: Yale -9½
Yale heads into Dartmouth and this is a case of two teams going in complete opposite directions. Yale has ran off 10 straight wins and is in a legit spot to compete for the Ivy League title. On the other side of things, Dartmouth as dropped 3 straight and this team really hasn’t looked good on either side of the ball lately.
Scoring has been the major problem for Dartmouth as they’re scoring under 70 points per game. When you’re going up against a team like Yale, who has the ability to control the paint and hit from the outside, you simply have to expect to get near the 80s to beat this team. Yale is putting up 75 points per game. With Dartmouth’s sketchy defense, Yale will really have a chance to dominate around the bucket tonight. Look for Yale to really control this game with the tempo, as they cover the number here. Yale is 6-3-2 ATS on the season.
Scott Rickenbach
Monmouth vs. Rider
Play: Rider +5
Oftentimes when something looks too good to be true it usually is and this is another classic example of that in this match-up on Friday. Monmouth is 20-5 on the season and yet only laying 5 points against a Rider team that has struggled to a 10-15 mark so far on the season. Looks easy, doesn't it? The fact is that it is rarely ever that easy. Look for Monmouth to struggle to put the Broncs away here and Rider might even get the outright win in their upset bid. Home court means a lot in the MAAC and the Broncs have won 4 of the past 5 match-ups between these teams. The lone loss came by a single point and, hence, the line value with Rider in this spot. The Broncs are on a fantastic long-term run of 13-3 (81%) ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to 6 points. Monmouth has had a fantastic ATS season thusfar while Rider has struggled at the betting window. Of course that type of trend can't go on forever and this road spot looks like the ideal spot to fade the Hawks. Monmouth, after game 15 of a season, has gone 9-15 ATS the past three seasons in their games against teams with a losing record. With tougher match-ups on the horizon (Manhattan and rival Iona), don't be surprised if the Hawks get caught looking ahead here.
Jack Jones
USC -1
The USC Trojans have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. They have gone 18-5 SU & 15-8 ATS and find themselves in the hunt for one of the top four seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
The Arizona State Sun Devils have little to play for right now at 13-11 overall and 3-8 within the conference. Two of those three conference wins have come against Washington State, which is arguably the worst team in the Pac-12.
USC thumped Arizona State 75-65 at home earlier this season in their first meeting in January 7th. The Trojans also knocked off the Sun Devils in the Pac-12 Tournament last year by a final of 67-64. I believe we are getting USC at a nice discount here as only 1-point favorites over the inferior Sun Devils.
Arizona State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a conference win. USC is 12-1 ATS after playing a home game this season. The Sun Devils are 7-18-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Dave Price
Dayton -1.5
The Dayton Flyers are far and away the best team in the Atlantic 10 this season. They are 20-3 on the year and legitimately fighting to be a Top-3 seed in the NCAA Tournament if they can keep it up. The Flyers are limiting opponents to 61.3 points and 38.9 percent shooting in conference play, both A-10's best marks. Rhode Island is 5-1 at home in conference play, but all five wins came against teams currently under .500 within the conference. The Flyers have won three straight meetings with the Rams. Rhode Island is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games as an underdog, and 0-7 ATS in its last 7 games with a line of +3 to -3. Dayton is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 road games after scoring 75 points or more in two straight games coming in.
Gabriel DuPont
Free play for tonight, as I look to improve on my 12-6 runwith complimentary plays: Princeton (-9) at CORNELL
The STORYLINE in this game today - My free play for tonight is in the Ivy League, where I like the road team in the Princeton-Cornell clash, a game the Tigers should dominate from the opening tip. I know this has been a tough place to play for Princeton in recent seasons, going 2-2 over the last four years. Last year, Princeton was 4-1 heading to Ithaca and lost 68-60, however, Cornell returns only 23 of its 68 points from last year's lineup.
The X-FACTOR in making this choice on this game - My x-factor in this one is motivation. A sweep this weekend - the Tigers also play at Columbia - would put Princeton in its best position at the halfway mark since the Ivy title season of 2011, when Princeton was 7-0 at the midway point of the conference season. If the Tigers can get through this road weekend unbeated, they would be 6-1 in league play, with five of its final seven games at home.
BOTTOM LINE is - This seems to be a good matchup for the Tigers, who rank No. 1 in the Ivy League, with the top scoring offense averaging 78.9 ppg overall. Cornell, on the other hand, ranks No. 8 with its scoring defense, averaging 77.5 ppg. allowed.
1* PRINCETON
Chris Jordan
My free play is on the Columbia Lions, who come into this home clash after a road split, losing their first Ivy League contest at Yale before staving off a tough Brown team on Saturday. The Quakers, meanwhile, knocked off Dartmouth and Harvard at the Palestra, improving to 2-3 in conference play.
But there's something troubling about the inconsistent Quakers this year that has me wary of looking their way. In fact, when they're on the road, and catching a rather big number, I tend to side with the other side, thinking the oddsmakers are on to something and we're on the brink of a blowout.
The Lions are off to their best start after 23 games, since the 1969-70 season, when they began the season 20-3. The 5-1 Ivy League start is the best for the program since the 1978 campaign.
Let's lay the home chalk in this one, as the Lions roll.
5* COLUMBIA
Brad Wilton
My comp play for Friday is UCLA plus the points.
No doubt the Bruins have been a disappointment this season, and their recent 4-9 spread slide their last 13 games isn't exactly a ringing endorsement of them tonight in Tucson, but I think grabbing the points is the way to go in this Pac 12 battle between UCLA and Arizona.
The Wildcats are sporting a 19-5 season mark, and they have also covered 8 of their last 10 on their home court, but Arizona has had issues putting away UCLA in recent meetings, so with the points I give the Uclans a fighter's chance in this one.
UCLA beat Arizona in Los Angeles, 87-84 back on January 7th, and they have gone 5-3 straight up over the last 8 series meetings, and better still is their 4 straight series covers, and covers in 7 of the last 8.
Based on those spread numbers, cannot comfortably lay double-digits with the Wildcats.
Take UCLA to hang inside of this impost.
1* UCLA
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is Niagara plus the points at St. Peter's in MAAC play tonight.
Bottom line, here you have a pair of well below .500 teams, and I simply don't think you can lay near double-digits with a Peacocks team that is on a 1-5 straight up run, and a 1-4 against the spread run.
The Purple Eagles have only won once straight up in their last 8 games, but the difference tonight is in the season series meetings.
Niagara won the first meeting this year, 63-61 as the small home underdog, and the Purple Eagles are 7-2 now straight up the past 9 season series meetings, and on a money-making 6-1 against the spread run the last 7 times these conference rivals have met.
Take the points as this one stays close all the way.
2* NIAGARA
Scott Delaney
Let's play Saint Peter's tonight against Niagara, as my free play comes out of one of the most exciting mid-major conferences in the nation. The MAAC is always fun to watch, especially the conference tournament. Tonight, the Peacocks are the value play.
Revenge is the key here, as Niagara defeated the Peacocks 63-61 in western New York on Jan. 7. Saint Peter's will split the season series for the third-straight year with the Purple Eagles, as each team won on its home floor in 2013-14 before the road team won both tilts last season.
The Peacocks come into the contest 9-13 overall and 7-6 in MAAC play after defeating a tough Quinnipiac team, 68-52 on Monday. Saint Peter's is sitting in fourth place in the conference, a half a game in front of both Fairfield (7-7) and Manhattan (6-6).
Junior Quadir Welton has been on a tear, so I'm going to look to him for another double-digit night.
Lay the home chalk in this one.
1* ST. PETER'S
Harry Bondi
RHODE ISLAND (+2) over Dayton
After hitting two-straight free games in the NBA the last two nights, tonight we turn to college hoops and we'll take the home dog Rams. Dayton is in a difficult spot here as they come in off a tougher-than-expected win over Duquesne on Tuesday night in which they came back from a 12-point deficit with five minutes remaining to pull off a two-point win. Now, they have to go on the road to face a scrappy Rhode Island team, knowing that they have a huge game on deck against St. Joe's, who is just one game behind them for first place in the A-10 standings. Rhodie has won seven of the last 10 meetings on this floor and is 33-11 SU the last three years at home. Take the points!
Bruce Marshall
Penguins -1.5 +260
Expect the Penguins to bounce back from Wednesday's 3-0 loss to the Rangers. Previously, Pittsburgh was hot the league's best team offensively from Jan. 21-Feb. 8, averaging 4.14 goals while winning six of seven games, including a big outburst in Monday's 6-2 win over Anaheim. The last time these teams faced, Pens GK Marc-Andre Fleury made 22 saves in a 5-0 victory over the Hurricanes on Jan. 17.