Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 12,2010

DUNKEL

West Virginia at Pittsburgh
The Mountaineers look to bounce back from their loss to Villanova and build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games following a SU loss. West Virginia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Mountaineers favored by 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2)

Game 801-802: Harvard at Yale
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 56.613; Yale 55.069
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 5
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+5)

Game 803-804: Columbia at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 40.970; Princeton 59.888
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 19
Vegas Line: Princeton by 13
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-13)

Game 805-806: Dartmouth at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 41.200; Brown 44.264
Dunkel Line: Brown by 3
Vegas Line: Brown by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dartmouth (+6 1/2)

Game 807-808: Cornell at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 63.769; Pennsylvania 47.902
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 16
Vegas Line: Cornell by 17
Dunkel Pick: Pennsylvania (+17)

Game 809-810: West Virginia at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 74.212; Pittsburgh 69.963
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (-2 1/2)

Game 811-812: Siena at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 64.282; Niagara 53.822
Dunkel Line: Siena by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 4
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-4)

Game 813-814: Fairfield at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 55.500; Rider 52.437
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 3
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield

Game 815-816: St. Peter's at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 54.974; Loyola-MD 55.614
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 1
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 817-818: Marist at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 37.364; Canisius 55.613
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Canisius by 15
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-15)

Game 819-820: Manhattan at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 48.455; Iona 63.843
Dunkel Line: Iona by 15 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 11
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-11)

Game 821-822: Northern Colorado at Idaho State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 54.855; Idaho State 53.866
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 1
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 4
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+4)

Game 823-924: Northern Arizona at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 51.721; Weber State 60.400
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 11
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11)

Game 825-826: Montana at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 54.581; Portland State 55.603
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 1
Vegas Line: Montana by 1
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (+1)

Game 827-828: Montana State at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 48.931; Eastern Washington 46.898
Dunkel Line: Montana State by 2
Vegas Line: Montana State by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+2 1/2)

NHL

Atlanta at Minnesota
The Wild look to take advantage of an Atlanta team that is 5-16 in its last 21 road games. Minnesota is the pick (-170) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-170)

Game 1-2: Montreal at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 12.350; Philadelphia 11.030
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia (-180); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (+160); Over

Game 3-4: Vancouver at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Vancouver 12.903; Columbus 12.127
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-120); Under

Game 5-6: Nashville at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.205; New Jersey 10.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 7-8: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 10.932; Pittsburgh 12.337
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 9-10: Toronto at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 12.658; St. Louis 11.089
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+120); Over

Game 11-12: Atlanta at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.135; Minnesota 12.198
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-170); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-170); Under

Game 13-14: Phoenix at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 11.570; Colorado 12.657
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-135); Under

VEGAS EXPERTS

Siena at Niagara

For the life of us, we cannot understand what the oddsmakers are thinking here by installing the Purple Eagles as such a short home dog. The Saints of Siena, disaster in the MAAC Tourney nothwithstanding, appear to be Big Dance bound yet again and check in with a perfect 6-0 ATS mark this year in the road favorite role. They are also 7-0 ATS when coming off a spread loss this year. They have traditionally dominated Niagara to the tune of 17-5 ATS since 1997, which includes an 8-1 ATS mark on the road. Lay the points.

Play on: Siena

Matt Fargo

Montana State at E. Washington
Prediction: Montana State

Many will argue that Sacramento St. is the worst team in the Big Sky Conference and while that may have been the case a couple weeks ago, the Hornets have leaped over Eastern Washington with two wins in their last three games. The Eagles meanwhile have dropped seven straight games and are currently in last place in the conference. They are 4-5 at home this season with one of those wins coming against Sacramento St. which is certainly far from impressive. The other three wins are even worse as they came against Seattle, an Independent team, as well as two non-Division I teams, Division III Whitman and NAIA Walla Walla. The Eagles also own two road wins, one against 282nd ranked Texas-Arlington and the other against Montana St. Can you say payback? Montana St. is certainly no prize but the Bobcats are currently in fourth place in the Big Sky with two losses against first place Weber St. and another at second place Northern Colorado. Their next three conference games are all against teams below them in the standings and while finishing in second place isn?t likely which comes with a first round bye in the conference tournament, Montana St. is only one win away from clinching a spot in the tournament. Holding onto fourth place means a first round home game so the stretch coming in is very important. The Bobcats are 4-8 on the road this season and while none of those wins were quality victories, they came against teams that compare to Eastern Washington and the revenge factor will no doubt play a part here tonight. The Bobcats have advantages in every pertinent statistical category with the exception of free throw shooting but that difference is minimal and it equates to only one fewer point scored from the line. Montana St. is positive in both shooting percentage and three point shooting percentage while the Eagles are -8.2 percent in shooting margin including -7.3 percent from long range. Eastern Washington is allowing opponents to shoot 49.1 percent from the floor and that is 334th in the country. It is also allowing foes to hit 40.1 percent from behind the arc and that is an even worse 341st in the nation. Montana St.?s offense isn?t great but it is ranked a respectable 120th in shooting and 88th in three-point shooting. The Bobcats also have an assist/turnover ratio above the breakeven points while the Eagles are below that point. Over the last five games, Montana St. is +0.25 in ratio margin while Eastern Washington is -0.12 in ratio margin. Eastern Washington is 2-9 ATS this season coming off a road game while the Bobcats are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games coming off losses in two of their last three games. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against teams with a losing home record while the Eagles are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games against teams with a losing road record. Revenge will be sweet tonight. 3* Montana St. Bobcats

Tom Freese

Northern Colorado at Idaho State
Prediction: Northern Colorado

Idaho St is 6-17 overall and 3-8 in Conference Play. The Bengals lost a Northern Colorado 78-66 in January. Idaho St scores just 66 points a game guard Amorrou Morgan scores 17.5 points a game. Guard Broderick Gilchrest scores 15.7 points a game. No other players scores more than scores more than 8.7 points a game. The Bengals shoot under 70% from the foul line. Idaho St is 1-4 ATS their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of below 40% and they are 16-28 ATS off a road game. Northern Colorado is 19-5 overall and they are 8-3 in Conference Play. The Bears score 75 points a game. Guard Will Figures scores 16.1 points a game while shooting over 38% from behind the arc. Guard Devon Beitzel scores 14 .9 points a game while shooting just under 45% from behind the line. Four other players score between 8.7 and 6.4 points a game. The Bears shoot 75% from the foul line. Northern Colorado is 8-3 ATS their last 11 games as favorites of 0.5 and 6.5 points and they are 9-4 ATS their last 13 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. PLAY ON NORTHERN COLORADO -

Scott Rickenbach

Vancouver Canucks @ Columbus Blue Jackets
PICK: Columbus Blue Jackets -105

Generally we’ve been using NBA plays in this spot and it’s worked out very well! We played against the Celtics AGAIN in a tough scheduling spot last Friday and we cashed our ticket with the Nets. It was our second straight win going against Boston but now it’s time to shift gears from the NBA to the NHL as, this Friday, the NBA’s All-Star Break has already begun. No worries for us as there is plenty of college hoops and NHL action on tap and we love the pucks! This particular situation in Friday’s NHL sets up beautifully. The Canucks are off of a road game down in Florida last night and they have a big divisional game on deck at Minnesota on Sunday in the final day of NHL games before the Olympic Break. That makes this a very tricky spot for Vancouver as it’s a tough back-to-back with travel involved plus it’s hard for them to avoid looking ahead to a divisional match-up with the Wild looming on Sunday.

As for the Blue Jackets, they are hoping to make some positive headway before the Olympic Break as, after seeing their coach get fired, they are hoping to build some momentum for the final portion of the season that will come after the Olympic Break. Heading into Wednesday night’s game hosting the Sharks, the Blue Jackets were well-rested and were 14-9-5 at home this season. They’re now hosting a Canucks team that has not been impressive on the road this season. Buoyed by the coaching change since Hitchcock got fired, don’t be surprised if the Blue Jackets get another home win here as the Canucks struggle to stay focused in this match-up. Consider a small play on Columbus on the money line in the NHL Friday.

DAVID CHAN

West Virginia @ Pittsburgh
PICK: West Virginia -2.5.

I highlighted Duke as a free pick on Wednesday and West Virginia is a similar play here: the home team, in this case Pitt, just isn’t as good as people think. Sometimes the favorite really is the right side, even on the road.

These teams played last week in West Virginia, and the Mountaineers won 70-51, easily covering the 10 points asked. The question mark in that game for Pitt was Jermaine Dixon. He played 34 minutes and led the Panthers with 13 points, and it wasn’t nearly enough. Pitt’s not going to get blown out of its own gym by 20, but it’s not good enough to compete with the Big East’s best on a regular basis.

That’s what makes this call slightly different from Wednesday’s: In the Duke UNC game, we found a North Carolina team that had been struggling against good opposition all year. Pitt had a two week run shortly after New Year’s where it beat Syracuse, Cincy, and UConn all on the road, then beat Louisville in OT. That’s what the market remembers and that’s why this line is 2.5 instead of 5.5 or 6. What’s Pitt done since? A split with Seton Hall, a home win over St. John’s, a home loss to Georgetown, and a road loss at South Florida. Oh, and the beatdown in Morgantown.

As much as we’d like to take the dog that won at Syracuse, West Virginia is the right side. The Mountaineers are undefeated when they hold the opposition under 70, and they’ve already crushed Pitt once.

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on Niagara +4.5

After getting embarrassed at Siena in early January, look for Niagara to take the Saints right down to the wire tonight. This is a series that has been owned by the home team with the home squad covering the spread in the last 5 meetings. Plus, the Purple Eagles are showing solid value in the home dog role this evening when you consider that they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Siena has a huge target on its back and I won't be surprised if the Purple Eagles knock it off tonight. Take the points.

Jim Feist

Montana State vs. Eastern Washington
Play Over 136

There's a reason Eastern Washington is on a 9-1 run over the total: No defense. They are in last place in the Big Sky giving up 77.6 ppg, allowing over 80 points in three of the last five games. Eastern Washington is not winning much, either, the same as their opponent here. Montana State has lost 4 of 6 game and is on a 2-1 run over the total. Down the stretch of poor seasons, defense is the first to go on many teams and that's the case with both of them. Play Montana State/Eastern Washington Over the total.

EZWINNERS

Iona Gaels -11

Iona, under the tutelage of Kevin Williard, is having a very nice season. The Gaels are looking to finish the season strong and enter the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament with 20 or more wins as the number two seed behind Sienna. Manhattan and Iona had yet another close, hard fought game in the first meeting between these two teams this year as the Gaels won 56-53 as a Manhattan comeback came up just short. I expect Iona to win this game by much more of a margin considering that Manhattan has really struggled recently, especially on the road. Manhattan is only 8-16 overall and 3-11 MAAC and has dropped to ninth place in the MAAC. The Jaspers are only 1-5 against the spread in their last six meetings with Iona. Lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Phoenix +1.25 over COLORADO

The Av’s have been living somewhat of a charmed life the past couple of games, as they’ve been falling behind and that will eventually come back and bite them. They were down 3-1 to the Thrashers with about 10 minutes to go on Wednesday and ended up scoring the tying goal late and winning it nine seconds into OT. They play hard and they never give up but neither do the Coyotes and should they fall behind here, its chances of coming back are not good. The Coyotes are one of the toughest teams in the league to beat. They just keep coming every shift and every player from the first line to the fourth knows his role and plays it to near perfection. They’ve now won eight of nine and that includes wins in Chicago, Nashville, Dallas and Minnesota. The Av’s are just 5-13 vs the Pacific and playing the Coyotes is about as difficult as it gets. Play: Phoenix +1.25 (Risking 2 units).

Atlanta +1.60 over MINNESOTA

Once again we find some very decent value on the Thrashers. They’ve played three games since the Kovalchuk trade and they could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2. They lost to Washington 5-2 but that score is very misleading, as they were sharp that night but ran into a hot goaltender. The next game they played Florida, fell behind 2-0 and subsequently rallied for four straight goals to win it 4-2. Most recently, the Thrashers were in Colorado where they built a 3-1 lead in the third period before losing it in OT. This team is not getting enough credit but they remain very dangerous even with Kovalchuk. No matter how you break this one down, one has to give the Thrashers just as good a shot of winning as the hosts. The Wild are a team that struggles to score goals and in fact, have scored two or less in five of its last six. The only team they managed to score more than two against over that span was the Oilers. Laying big lumber with teams that are challenged offensively is very risky business. Play: Atlanta +1.60 (Risking 2 units).

PHILADELPHIA -½ -1.02 over Montreal

How the Habs keep winning games is a mystery in itself but the fact is they do and isn’t W’s and L’s what matters most? The Canadiens defy logic, as they’re weak on defense, they have very few offensive players and the guy that has logged the most minutes for them this season is a guy nobody has even heard of unless you’re a fan. Hell, even the biggest hockey fans that are reading this probably don’t know that Josh Gorges has logged the most minutes for the Canadiens this year. Montreal has won four of five and it’s not like they haven’t beaten anyone. Those four wins came over Vancouver, Boston, Pittsburgh and Washington and that, too, is incredibly remarkable. It’s one of the most unbelievable seasons that I’ve ever seen in any sport in the 36 years that I’ve been watching sports. They had Hal Gill on the power-play last game for Christ sake! The only explanation is that the opposition is taking them lightly and get caught doing so because in terms of talent, compared to the other teams in the league, the Habs might be dead last and that’s all there is to it. If Philly shows up tonight, the Habs have no shot and that’s a gamble I’m willing to take. You’ll have to excuse me now, as I must prepare for the big ice-dancing event taking place next week. Play: Philadelphia -½ -1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

Bryan Leonard

Fairfield at Rider

The Stags are looking for a bit of revenge here after dropping the earlier meeting at home 88-80. The Broncos completely outplayed Fairfield in that game shooting 54% from the field and attempting 15 more free throws. The Broncs dominated from the 3 point area shooting 53% in the road victory. That defeat makes four straight losses in this series for the Stags but we expect that fact to change after tonight's match-up.

Fairfield has the much more efficient offense and they should dominate the Broncs on the boards. Despite coming in off a two point loss at Siena that had to be a positive effort for Ed Cooley's crew.

Rider had been dominating in this building the past two years but this season hasn't been the same. They are just 6-4 here this year with losses to the likes of Loyola Maryland, St Peter's and LaSalle.

Fairfield is 10-2 at home this season with the only losses coming to Siena and Rider. They already easily cashed in a revenge spot against the Saints, we expect another superior effort here.

PLAY FAIRFIELD

LT Profits

Montana @ Portland State

The Montana Grizzles have won seven of their last eight games by playing good defense, and given that their offense is really not much, we are looking for an Under when they visit the Portland State Vikings tonight.

The Grizzlies are one of the few teams in the Big Sky Conference that actually plays defense, as they are allowing 60.9 points per game on just 41.2 percent shooting overall. Furthermore, they have allowed an even lower shooting percentage on the road of 40.9 percent, and perhaps most remarkably, they have held 13 straight Division I opponents to less than 70 points.

Looking at the Pomeroy Ratings, Montana is the only Big Sky team in the national top 100 in defensive efficiency, as they rank 98 while allowing .964 points per possession. This makes them one of only two Big Sky teams (Northern Colorado is the other) with a defensive PPP below 1.000.

At the same time, the Grizzlies offense is only averaging 63.4 points per game on the road, with those games averaging a combined 125.5 points, a whopping 18 points less than this posted total. Now granted, Portland State has one of the worst defenses in the country, but Montana does not appear to have either the offensive talent or the style of play to take advantage of this.

The Vikings are a great Over team at 12-3, as they are averaging 77.7 points per game while allowing an unbelievable 81.7 points per vs. Division I schools. However, they managed just 58 and 65 points respectively the last two times they faced this stiff Montana defense, and we expect the Grizzlies to once again frustrate the Vikings by slowing the pace of this game down.

They say that good defense stops good offense, so we look for Montana to win the Tempo War here and keep this game from getting out of the 130s.

Pick: Montana/Portland State Under 143.5

Ben Burns

Nashville Predators @ New Jersey Devils
PICK: New Jersey Devils -175

This price is a little steep to qualify as one of my guaranteed selections. That said, I feel that the Devils have an excellent shot of winning and that tonight's price is actually quite reasonable, relatively speaking.

New Jersey comes off three straight losses, the last two of which were very tough defeats vs. the Flyers. This is a team which doesn't typically suffer through many extended losing streaks. When the Devils do lose a few in a row, they tend to bounce back. Since 1996, they've gone a profitable 34-17 (+9.6) when coming off three or more consecutive defeats. Note that they haven't lost four in a row this entire season.

Snapping their losing streak is plenty of motivation in itself. However, the fact that the Devils already lost at Nasvhille, back in November, provides extra incentive. Note that New Jersey is a lucrative 16-7 (+8.9) on the season, when facing an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting.

Even with the recent OT loss vs. the Flyers, the Devils are still an excellent 19-9-1 (19-10 vs. moneyline) at home. They should be able to bounce back and grab the important two points here. Consider laying the wood.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on WVU/Pitt UNDER 127.5

In the season's first meeting played at WVU, we only saw 121 points scored, and this one could be even lower scoring when you consider that Pitt is only allowing 55.5 ppg at home. Defensive battles have been commonplace in this matchup and 8 of the last 11 meetings have finished Under the number as a result. And because of the half court style of basketball that Pitt prefers to play, we have seen 4 of the last 5 played in Pittsburgh finish Under the number. Pitt is a good defensive team, but it is not one that is going to come up with a lot of turnovers. Coach Dixon prefers to pack it in, staying solid throughout a defensive possession to force his opponent into a low percentage shot at the end of the shot clock. This makes for a solid Unders situation tonight as WVU is 6-0 Under versus team that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game after 15-plus games over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 Under versus teams who average 6 or less steals per game after 15-plus games over the last 2 seasons. The Under gets the call tonight.