Lenny Del Genio
Cornell -16 vs Pennsylvania
The best in the Ivy League meets arguably its worst Friday night in Penn when the Cornell Big Red come calling. Kansas Head Coach Bill Self, that's the HC of the #1 team in America, called the Big Red the best team the Jayhawks have faced all season after enduing a 71-66 close call in Lawrence on January 6th. The only other two teams to defeat Cornell this year both came from the Big East and one was #2 Syracuse (the other was Seton Hall). So we've already established that the Ivy League leaders are taking this game straight up, but with a line like this you didn't need our help on that call. The team is coming off BB ATS losses, but note they were favored by more than 20 points in both of those games, yet still won by a healthy average of 16.5 PPG. We can take advantage of a line move in the wrong direction now as we note the Big Red are 7-1 ATS in road games this season. The Quakers, meanwhile, are a horrible team with two of their three wins coming in recent conference play, but before that they started the year 1-14 SU and have been outscored on average of nearly 15 PPG. Their two league wins have come by a total of three points and the lone non-conf victory was against MD-Baltimore County. They have zero home wins this year and are 2-14 ATS in home games the last two seasons. Last year's two meetings with Cornell resulted in losses by 15 and 25 points. Cornell is better this year. We've played against Penn twice this year when the Quakers were playing at home and they lost to LaSalle and St. Joe's by 19 and 21 points. Take Cornell.
John Ryan
NO. Colorado vs. Idaho State
Play: Idaho State +4.5
3* graded play on Idaho State as they host Northern Colorado set to start at 9:05 EST in Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Idaho State will lose this game by 4 or fewer points. Northern Colorado has not done well against inferior opponents like Idaho State. NC is just 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season; 0-6 ATS when playing against a team winning between 20 and 40% of their games and also being outscored by 4 or more points per game. Idaho State is a solid 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games off a road loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons. Idaho State lost their last game to Montana 91-68 as 13.5 point dogs. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 167-131 making 68.7 units since 2004. Play against a road team versus the money line and is a hot team having won 15 or more of their last 20 games and is playing only their 2nd game in 8 days. We also believe an upset could certainly occur based on the model projections. We see NC shooting between 40 and 47% in this game. Note that NC is 2-12 against the money line (-10.7 Units) in road games when they make 40% to 46% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Take Idaho State.
Wunderdog
Columbia vs. Princeton
Play: Columbia +13.5
The Princeton Tigers have found their way back to the top of the Ivy League, and all of their games have been on the road. It would be easy to like them here coming home, but with a total of under 110, the steep double-digit line is definitely more like a 20-point line in a normal scoring game. Both of these teams work with methodical offenses that reduce the shots taken, and shorten the game. It is one of the reasons why Princeton has had extreme difficulty taking down large numbers, and the result has been 1-10 ATS at home giving 13 or more. It is also the reason slowdown Columbia is 19-7 ATS as a dog of 13 or more. I'm going with Columbia in this one.
Larry Ness
Montana State @ Eastern Washington
PICK: Eastern Washington +2.5
Montana St had a disappointing regular season last year but won at Montana and Weber St in the Big Sky tourney before losing the conference title game by just two points to Portland St. With four starters returning, expectations were fairly high for the Bobcats this year. Five players have averaged 29-plus minutes this season, including guards Navarre (11.4), Rush (11.4-4.2) and Bynum (8.2-4.3). Up front, it's the 6-7 Howard (13.6-5.4) and the 6-10 Johnson (10.0-5.5). Still, the Bobcats are a modest 12-11 (7-5) this year and actually lost at home to this Eastern Washington team, 75-73 back on January 10. The Eagles haven't won since (lost seven in a row) and enter this game 6-18 (2-8). Is this a good revenge spot for Montana St? I'm not buying it. Freshman guard Glen Dean hit a running 10-foot bank shot in traffic with 3.8 seconds to play when Eastern Washington surprised Montana State in that first game. Dean had game highs of 23 points, six rebounds and seven assists. He's averaging a team-high 12.0 PPG and 6.3 APG and is joined by a very deep backcourt. Last year's leading scorer Valentine (15.1) is averaging just 9.0 PPG this season and often comes off the bench with Forbes (10.3) and Winford (6.9) starting. Two seniors, the 6-8 Dunn (11.2-4.8) and the 6-9 Moore (8.8-7.4) are the mainstays in the frontcourt and I'm willing to take a shot with the home dog in this one, against the disappointing Bobcats. Go with Eastern Washington.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Niagara +4.5
After getting embarrassed at Siena in early January, look for Niagara to take the Saints right down to the wire tonight. This is a series that has been owned by the home team with the home squad covering the spread in the last 5 meetings. Plus, the Purple Eagles are showing solid value in the home dog role this evening when you consider that they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog. Siena has a huge target on its back and I won't be surprised if the Purple Eagles knock it off tonight. Take the points.
Black Widow
1* on Pittsburgh +3
Pittsburgh catching points at home here is an absolute gift from the odds makers. After what transpired during West Virginia's 70-51 win on Feb. 3 at Morgantown, it's likely Pittsburgh's fans will do their best to give the Panthers (18-6, 7-4) the ultimate homecourt advantage. It's going to be rowdy tonight and the Panthers would love nothing more than to return the favor and exact revenge on the Mountaineers. Pittsburgh is 13-1 at home this season, winning by 13.9 points/game. Not only have they been great at home this season, but they have owned West Virginia at home dating back over the last 10 years. Pittsburgh is 8-1 S.U. in their last 9 home meetings with WVU. The Panthers are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons. Take Pittsburgh and the points.
Info Plays
3* on Harvard -5
Reasons why Harvard covers:
1.) System Play. We'll Play On - A road team (HARVARD) - excellent defensive team (<=40%) against an average defensive team (42.5-45%) after 15+ games, average ball handling team (14.5-17.5 TO) vs. a poor pressure defense (<=14.5 TO) after 15+ games. This is a 79-37 ATS System hitting 68.1% since 1997. This system is 6-2 this season.
2.) Harvard is 15-5 on the year while Yale is just 9-14. The road team is 3-0 SU & ATS in the last 3 meetings, winning by double-digits each time. Bet Harvard on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
Montana -1 over PORTLAND ST.
The answer to the age old question “can one win playing unbelievable offense and no defense” is undoubtedly answered by the failure of this Portland State team. In all my years of watching and handicapping the college game, I have never seen a team that was as prolific on offense as Portland State but literally the worst defensive team in the country at the same time. When a team shoots 39% from three-point range, 53.3% from two and 73.5% from the line chances are that team is on a special run. But that isn’t the case for Portland State, who sit at 10-13 even though their offensive statistics are those of a Final Four team. Instead, Portland State is on the wrong side of history on the defensive side of the ball – 347th out of 347 nationally in defensive efficiency, 344th in effective field goal percentage allowed, 344th in three point percentage allowed (42%), 335th in two point percentage allowed (54.3%) and 329th in offensive rebounds allowed. Unbelievably, Portland State has been victim of the highest free throw conversion rate against out of all D-1 teams, (76%) a truly fitting statistic to a historically bad defensive season. Montana is still fighting like heck to win the Big Sky and simply can’t afford to let this one get away. It’s going to come down to them and Weber State for that precious automatic bid and with the second best offense in the Big Sky Portland State simply won’t be able to stop them. It’s just so difficult to win a game when you basically have to score every trip down the floor and that’s why I’m picking the team that has shown it can do that. Portland State is a fascinating story but you’d have to be crazy to trust them in a pick em situation. Play: Montana –1 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
Ron Raymond
TOR (+120) vs STL
My only concern about this selection, Jiggy is 0-7 SU on the road this season, but the Leafs have this honeymoon period going. Plus, Blues have Caps on deck, could be looking a head. When ST LOUIS team played as a home team - Last 2 years - Total is 5.5 - Allowed 3 or less goals AGAINST in their last game - Coming off vs Central division opponent; the Blues are 4-11 SU in this spot.
Denver Money
Portland St. 1 vs Montana
Portland State will host Montana tonight in a Big Sky Match-up. The underdog is 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and Portland St. is getting 1 at home tonight. Portland St is 5-5 in the Big Sky this season while Montana is 8-4. As a home dog of .5 to 6.5 the Vikings are 6-1 ATS and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home dog overall. The Grizzles are 4-9 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite of .5 - 6.5. Montana is also 1-5 ATS in last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 pts. (Won last game 91-68 vs. Idaho St.)
Mr. Vegas
Columbia at Princeton
Princeton and Cornell are the only two unbeatens in the Ivy League, while Columbia comes to town 2-4 on the road. Princeton is 5-1 at home and has a swarming defense allowing 52 ppg. Princeton is on a 6-0 SU, 5-0 ATS run (the last 4 on the road!), while Columbia looks worn down on a 2-4 ATS run. Play Princeton.
Stephen Nover
I'm attracted to Pittsburgh playing at home in a must-win game and in a big revenge situation.
The Panthers need to win this game to have any hope of finishing among the top four teams in the Big East and thus draw a double bye for the conference tournament. A victory would put Pittsburgh in a tie with West Virginia in the conference standings.
West Virginia embarrassed Pittsburgh, 70-5-1, last week in Morgantown. The game was delayed several times due to unruly fan behavior by the West Virginia crowd. It was Pittsburgh's worst loss in the series in 33 years.
"We felt as though we could beat them," Pittsburgh guard Jermaine Dixon said. "Some of the lapses we had - like not rebounding, guarding the ball and leaving the ball - that's something we don't do. I don't know what we were doing. We definitely won't do that again."
I expect things to be much different this time around with the game in Pittsburgh where the Panthers have lost only eight times in 140 games at Peterson Events Center during the past eight years with the average victory margin being 15.3 points.
The Panthers have defeated West Virginia in eight of their last nine home contests.
West Virginia is good, but I'm not sold on the Mountaineers being a top 10 team. I believe they are overrated.
2♦ PITTSBURGH
Scott Delaney
Columbia at Princeton
Taking the surging Tigers in this Ivy League showdown.
Princeton was overlooked coming into conference play, but it has won 11 of its last 12 games and has been a pleasant surprise to everyone with its start.
Columbia struggled against the Big Red and Harvard to start its Ivy League schedule, and though it has recovered by winning two of its last three games, it's still missing guard Patrick Foley with a separated right shoulder.
The Lions are capable of hanging with most of these teams; against Princeton, though, I don’t see it happening.
Take the Tigers tonight.
1♦ PRINCETON
Bobby Maxwell
I'm red-hot with my FREE selections, on a 48-19-1 run with my last 68 plays. Tonight I have a comp winner coming on the college hardwood as I go with Pitt to get the cover at home over rival West Virginia.
After the tough loss on Monday, West Virginia now has to make the trek to Pitt to face their bitter rivals in the basketball version of the Backyard Brawl. Tough situation for the Mountaineers in this one, so let’s go ahead and grab the point or two with Pitt in this one.
The Panthers had a nice tuneup on Monday, hosting a pretty good Robert Morris team and winning 77-53 in the unlined contest. That came on the heels of Saturday’s 83-58 win over Seton Hall, easily cashing as 4 ½-point favorites. Pitt is also looking for some redemption from their loss at West Virginia on Feb. 3 when they got stomped 70-51 as a 10-point underdog.
The Panthers were embarrassed in that one and can’t wait to get another shot at their rivals. They’ve won 33 of their last 34 at home and they aren’t going to let their rivals take one here.
The road team does not usually win in this series and Pitt has won each of the last three played on its court, covering in two of the three, including last season’s 70-59 win as an 8 ½-point favorite. Pitt is on ATS runs of 7-3-1 in Big East games, 9-3-1 overall, 6-1-2 at home, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 10-3-2 against teams with a winning record.
West Virginia is on ATS slides of 0-4 on Fridays and 1-8 as a road chalk of up to 6 ½-points.
The place is going to be loud and rockin’ tonight. Pitt has wanted this one ever since getting stomped at West Virginia 10 days ago. Revenge is on their minds and that’s what they’ll get. I’ll grab the points for safety reasons, but look for Pitt to win this one outright.
4♦ PITT
Craig Davis
The Stags and the Broncs tonight, and a major revenge situation for the team that used to clearly be the second-best team in the MAAC. Sure, the Stags have fallen on hard times over the past few weeks and clearly aren't playing their best basketball right now, but there is no doubt in my mind they are the better of these two teams and I still think they're better than Iona. I like my chances with Fairfield tonight despite the fact they've dropped their last four meetings with Rider. The good news is we catch them on the road where they have covered 7 of their last 9 and 6 of their past 8 visits to Rider. Fairfield also has a bit of confidence heading into this game after taking conference-leader, Siena, to the wire in their last road game, eventually dropping a 69-67 heartbreaker. Rider doesn't have the bench to keep up with Fairfield and I believe the Stags get some much-needed revenge and stays hot on the heels of a much-improved Iona team in Conference play.
2♦ FAIRFIELD