Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February, 17

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Wizards vs. Utah Jazz
Play: Utah Jazz -10

What we want to do is plays against rested road dogs that were road dogs of 5 or more and scored 90 or less with 45% or less shooting , vs an opponent who also scored 90 or less as a road dog with 45% or less shooting if the total is 190 or higher. The road teams in this situation have lost and failed to cover 12 of the 14 times. Washing ton on the season is 7-17 to the spread as a dog and 0-7 on Friday with just 2 ats wins. Utah is 15-2 straight up with 11 covers as a home favorite from -9.5 to -12 and has won and covered 3 of 4 times with 2 days rest. Look for some smooth Jazz tonight. Take Utah to win and cover.

David Chan

Predators @ Red Wings
PICK: Over 5.5

I bet value where I see it and am expecting to see some offensive fireworks, as these two well rested teams battle it out on Friday night.

The Predators are 33-18-6 and are coming off a 3-2 win over the Blackhawks on Tuesday.

Defenseman Ryan Ellis returned from injury to get the go ahead goal, and he also chipped in an assist:

“It was a great response from Ellis,” Nashville coach Barry Trotz said. “He is a really smart player. But the last couple of games he had gotten a little too cute and it hadn’t worked out for him.

“We told him to keep it pretty simple and pretty smart. We told him we wanted him to make the right plays and make good decisions on defense. And obviously he contributed offensively.”

The win snapped a three game slide, and this team will obviously now be looking to build upon that performance.

The Red Wings are 39-17-2 (including 24-2-1 at Joe Louis Arena), and are coming off a 3-1 win over Dallas on Tuesday:

“In the end when they were really cheering, before and after the buzzer went, it was a pretty cool feeling,” forward Henrik Zetterberg said.

“Anytime you’re in a race like we are, you need the points,” Red Wings coach Mike Babcock said (referring to the New York Rangers).

There are some tough divisions in the NHL, and certainly the Central is right there amongst the most difficult to play in; Detroit, surging St. Louis, consistent Nashville and dangerous Chicago all have playoff aspirations.

Expect these two teams to open it up and for this total to sneak above the posted number!

Ben Burns

Nashville Predators @ Detroit Red Wings
PICK: Detroit Red Wings

Talk about no respect. The Red Wings have won 21 straight at home. Tuesday's 3-1 victory, their 21st, broke the single-season mark of 20 that Boston had set back on 1929-30 and which Philadelphia had matched in the 1976.

Given that type of home ice dominance, one would expect them to be very steep favorites. Yet, they've only opened as mid-sized favorites. I feel that's providing solid value.

While the streak will eventually come to an end, the Wings still have unsettled business. That's because those 1929-30 Bruins still have a 22-game home winning streak, one which spanned two seasons. Another couple of victories and the Wings can erase that one too.

The Wings also have motivation to keep winning, as they're battling for top spot in the regular season.

As coach Mike Babcock said. "Anytime you're in a race like we are, you need the points ... "

Captain Nicklas Lidstrom echoed his coach's comments: "It's something we're going to cherish, but we've talked about getting more points to stay where we are in the standings ... "

The Wings also easily (4-1) defeated the Predators in this season's lone meeting here. That brought them to 14-6 the last 20 times that they were a host in the series. Consider laying the wood.

Marc Lawrence

Yale @ Dartmouth
PICK: Dartmouth

Dartmouth hosts Yale in an Ivy League battle tonight the Big Green will take the floor knowing they are 9-4-1 ATS as dogs this season, including 6-1-1 ATS when playing off back-to-back losses. On the flip side, the Bulldogs enter off an upset win over Columbia knowing they are just 1-9 SU and 3-7 ATS in games after taking on the Lions. Stay at home with the hungry hosts tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dartmouth.

Jack Jones

Houston Rockets -4½

The Houston Rockets want serious revenge on the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight. They come into this game with double revenge, having lost their last two meetings with the Timberwolves, both coming this season. This is a very generous price on the motivated Rockets playing at home Friday.

Houston has been superb at home all season. The Rockets are 11-3 SU & 10-4 ATS in 14 home games, outscoring opponents by 7.6 points/game. They are coming off one of their most impressive wins of the season, a 96-95 home victory over Oklahoma City to prove they can play with the best.

Minnesota is an improved team this season, but they are simply getting too much respect from oddsmakers here. The Timberwolves are still at least another year away from being a contender in the West. Meanwhile, the Rockets are certainly a team you will be seeing in the playoffs, and they won't be an easy out.

The Timberwolves are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. The Rockets are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. The favorite is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings, and the Rockets are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Bet Houston Friday.

Jim Feist

Columbia vs Princeton
Pick: Under

Two teams with winning records overall and two strong defensive ones, which will mean a slow paced, defensive duel. The under is 53-25-1 in the Columbia Lions last 79 overall. Princeton has home court but is not a strong shooting team (.435%) , but the defense has allowed 58, 47 and 62 points the last three games, including that big upset of Harvard. The under is 18-7-1 in the Columbia Lions last 26 games following a loss and when these teams meet the under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings. Play Columbia/Princeton under the total.

Dave Cokin

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers
Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers

Miami is red hot, but now they're laying doubles on the road with a big game on deck. The Heat haven't lost a game since Orlando took them out a couple weeks back, and next up for Miami is the rematch. I know it's a "homecoming" for King James, but this number is very high and I like the Cavaliers to get the cover.

Nelly

Orlando - over Milwaukee

Orlando has endured a tumultuous season but the offense is finally starting to click with 99 or more points in seven of the last eight games. The Magic are quietly 19-11 with wins in seven of the last nine games and this may be a forgotten team in the Eastern Conference. Jameer Nelson seems to be coming out of his early season funk and Dwight Howard is showing more consistent performances on both ends of the floor. Ryan Anderson has also been a recent sparkplug, posting 20 plus in four of the last nine games. Orlando is just 11-6 S/U at home this season but three of those losses came in overtime and this should still be considered one of the tougher home courts in the league. The Magic have recent home wins over Philadelphia, Miami, and the Lakers and when motivated this team is capable of beating anyone. Milwaukee gave the Magic a tough game less than a week ago so this match-up will have the home team’s attention and that game ended up tight due to a very slow start from Orlando, scoring just 16 points in the first quarter. The Magic came back to win despite a well played game from the Bucks and with the absence of Andrew Bogut, Howard will be a very tough match-up. Veteran Drew Gooden has been taking on the center role and a heavy scoring load in recent Milwaukee games but he will have his hands full on defense in this match-up and Milwaukee will need to find other contributors inside, something they have not consistently done. The Bucks are just 5-10 on the road this season with a 6-9 ATS mark and Milwaukee has lost ATS in seven of the last eight games. These teams will play each other a third time in a short span with another match-up back in Milwaukee on Monday and Orlando has won seven of the past eight meetings with the home team going 7-3 ATS in the past ten meetings. Eight of last twelve Orlando wins have come by eight or more points and the Magic are more capable of blowouts than most expect.

MTi Sports

Bobcats at Raptors
Prediction: Under

The Raptors are off a 113-106 home loss to the Spurs in which they made only three three-pointers. The Spurs scored the first eight points of the game and were never headed thereafter. Here, we expect a lower-scoring game, as the Raptors will not be playing catch-up the entire game. Toronto is 0-7 OU (-8.2 ppg) as a favorite with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which they scored less than 10% of their points from the three-point line and 0-6 OU (-15.8 ppg) off a home loss in which they never led. Charlotte is 0-7 OU (-16.8 ppg) on the road after a loss in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted and 0-13 OU (-11.2 ppg) on the road with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Tyrus Thomas took fewer than 10 shots. Take these two UNDER.

Sean Murphy

Charlotte @ Toronto
PICK: Under 185.5

This has the potential to be a rather sloppy affair between two teams that find themselves at, or near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings.

While this has been a relatively high-scoring series in recent years, with the 'over' cashing in five of the last seven meetings, it's important to note that these are two very different teams, due to injuries and otherwise. With that being said, their most recent meeting totaled just 185 points right here in Toronto last March.

The Bobcats have at least shown some positive signs lately, managing to split their last six games ATS. It's been a product of improved defensive play, as they've held four of their last six opponents to 98 points or less. Their offense remains a work-in-progress at best, putting up 90 points or less in each of their last eight games.

The Raptors busted out with a 106-point effort against the Spurs on Wednesday, but it was in a losing cause. Keep in mind, prior to that game, they had been held to 86, 92, and 87 points in their previous three contests.

Right now, we're talking about a Toronto squad that features the likes of James Johnson, Amir Johnson, and Aaron Gray in the starting lineup. In other words, 60% of its starting lineup consists of defensive specialists.

The Raptors defense-first mentality under head coach Dwayne Casey has paid off to a certain extent, as they've allowed just 93.1 points per game on 41.4% shooting here at home this season. Not surprisingly, the 'under' has cashed at an 8-6-1 clip at Air Canada Centre.

Likewise, the Bobcats have posted a 5-10-1 o/u record away from home this season. The 'under' is 8-1-1 in their last 10 road contests.

Both teams are missing arguably their best offensive player, with Gerald Henderson sidelined for the 'Cats and Andrea Bargnani in street clothes for the Raptors. I feel the oddsmakers are being a little optimistic setting this total in the mid-180s.

EZWINNERS

Toronto Raptors -6.5

If your not getting double digits, the Bobcats are not even worth a second look especially on the road in my opinion. Charlotte has now lost sixteen games in a row after their last loss at Minnesota on Wednesday night and twenty two out of their last twenty three. Toronto is not having a great season themselves, but they have been very competitive at home against some of the top teams in the league. Raptors point guard Jose Calderon is shooting very well recently and should out play the rookie point guard Kemba Walker for Charlotte who is about the only bright spot for the Bobcats right now. Toronto is 5-1 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a losing record and Charlotte is just 2-12 against the spread as an underdog of 5 to 10.5 points. Lay the points.

SPORTS WAGERS

Anaheim +119 over NEW JERSEY

The Ducks are 17-11-5 since Bruce Boudreau took over but they're 14-2-3 with a league-leading 31 points since Jan. 6. Anaheim is once again getting outstanding goaltending from Jonas Hiller. Two years ago, Hiller was considered one of the best in the game but he missed a large portion of games last season and was rather average at the start of this one. He's since regained that form from two seasons ago. Martin Brodeur starts for the Devils. If you read this section regularly, there's nothing more to say. The Devils, too, are hot. They've won six of eight and the top line is once again scoring at a torrid pace. New Jersey is a top-tiered team whose only weakness is in goal. That makes them unappealing as the chalk against the hottest team in the NHL. It's also worth noting that the Devils rarely see the Ducks and could be looking ahead to a pair of upcoming games in Montreal and Toronto. Play: Anaheim +119 (Risking 2 units).

Montreal +110 over BUFFALO

The Sabres are back to playing the same poor way they were playing prior to the break. Buffalo is desperately lacking desire, discipline and the intangibles it takes to win at this level. Since a modest run just after the all-star break, the Sabres have lost three in a row and have been outscored 13-4. They had a 2-0 lead in Philly last night after one period and lost 7-2. A disheartened Buffalo bunch will now play its third game in four days after winning just eight of its last 26 games. The Canadiens come in losers of two straight. They've lost six consecutive games to this rival and that has to be eating away at them. There are no excuses for losing to them again, as they catch the Sabres demoralized and in a difficult scheduling spot. Montreal had won four straight before losing back-to-back games to Carolina and Boston. However, they rallied from two down against the B's to pick up a point and send that game to OT. As a result, the Canadiens have picked up points in five of their last six games. Expect another strong effort here in an attempt to end their recent woes against this fragile host. Play: Montreal +110 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee +7½/+273 over ORLANDO

The Magic have beaten the Bucks four straight and seven of eight including a game in Milwaukee just six days ago. As a result, Orlando has no score to settle here. The Bucks do and we’re confident they can pull it off. The schedule has had a huge impact in wagering on the NBA this season. It's something we must always consider and we could have found a glitch here against the home side. The Magic will play their fifth game in seven nights. After this game, they embark on a five-game trip that starts Sunday with the first of four games in five nights. That game Sunday is against the Heat in the second game of a nationally televised double-header on ABC. For a Magic team that has been caught napping on several occasions this season, this one has all the same warning signs. This one is not about talent and stats. It’s about the situation that bodes well for our purposes. With Orlando’s eye off the ball here, an upset would not surprise. Play: Milwaukee +7½ (Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5) Play: Milwaukee +273 (Risking 0.5 units).

Washington +11 over UTAH

This line is just plain ludicrous. The Wizards are widely regarded as one of the least talented and most dysfunctional team in the NBA. That was very true when the season began and the Wiz were constantly getting blown out. A lot has changed in a short while. Flip Saunders was fired and the club is now 5-8 under Randy Wittman and 3-3 over its last six. The Wizards’ only losses over their past six games have been to the red-hot New York Knicks and division-leaders Miami and the Clippers. They won their first two games on this five-game road trip against Detroit and Portland by a combined 36 points. They're also displaying a different mentality on the court, as they are now winning as a team and losing as one. Getting 11 points against a talented but green Jazz club is a gross overlay. Teams like Miami, Philly, Oklahoma City and Chicago are favored by 11 points, not teams like Utah. The Jazz are a .500 club at 14-14 and they'll be hard pressed to remain at .500. Sure, they play well at home but they return to Salt Lake after a three-game trip. Any complacency or taking this unfamiliar intruder lightly could result in not only an easy cover for the Wizards but an outright win also. Play: Washington +11 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Larry Ness

LA Lakers -8

The Suns and Lakers open a home-and-home series tonight in LA, completing the set with a Sunday night game in Phoenix. However, these two Pacific Division rivals are not quite the teams you remember. I'm not sure what to make of the "new look" Suns. Two years ago the Suns were 54-28 (just three games behind the top-seeded Lakers in the Western Conference), while averaging 110.2 PPG. However, the team went just 40-42 last year (missing the postseason) while averaging 105.0 PPG. This year's team is a 'horse of a different color,' sitting at 12-18 (that would be 33-49 in a normal 82-game schedule) while averaging 93.6 PPG, or 11.4 points lower than LY's non-playoff team. Who could have ever imagined that Marcin Gortat (15.2-10.1) would be the Suns' leading scorer? Nash (14.6-10.7 APG) is not quite "the Nash of old" but he is tops among guards in FG percentage at 55.9 percent and was recently named to the All-Star team for the eighth time, becoming just the fourth player at age 38 or older to make it. That being said, the rest of the team leaves much to be desired, as players like Brown and Warrick have been held out of SEVEN of the team's last eight games (coaches' decision). The other three starters are Hill (9.3-3.5) and Frye (9.0-5.5) in the frontcourt plus Dudley (11.3-4.1) alongside of Nash in the backcourt. Redd (7.8) has averaged 12.4 PPG over his last eight and 6-10 rookie Morris (Kansas) is averaging 7.9-4.9. As for the 17-12 Lakers, as I've often noted, they are pretty much a "three-man" team these days. Kobe (28.7-5.8-5.) teams with big men Gasol (16.8-10.6) and Bynum (16.3-12.6) with consistent support rarely available. While Kobe is averaging a league-best 28.7 points, not much has gone right lately for the 14-time All Star. He finished with a season-low 10 points (5-of-18 shooting) against Atlanta on Tuesday, making it the SIXTH time in seven games this month that he has shot below 40.0 percent (only happened FOUR times in LA's first 22 games!). LA is putting more of an emphasis on defense under new coach Mike Brown this season, allowing an average of 90.4 points (5.0 fewer than last season) and LA's average of allowing 84.7 PPG at home, is the lowest of any Western Conference team. The Lakers' 86-78 win over the Hawks on Tuesday improved their record to 13-1 when limiting opponents to 91 or fewer points on the season. The Lakers have dominated the Suns here at Staples Center, winning NINE of the last 10 meetings and the home team comes in well-rested. LA's home game on Tuesday was its first since completing a six-game, 10-day road trip on Sunday, part of a stretch in which the Lakers had played EIGHT of their pervious nine games away from home. The two days off is HUGE and let's remember, LA 12-2 SU at home, outscoring opponents on average 94.4-to-84.7 PPG. I talked about the lack of support for Kobe, Gasol and Bynum earlier but note that Blake has finally gotten back on the court and while he's far from "lighting it up," his presence is a plus. The 6-11 Murphy is also back healthy and getting minutes and he's always capable of having a solid game (remember, this guy had four seasons of averaging a double-double!). Then, there is College of Charleston rookie, Andrew Goudeluck, who has reached double digits in FIVE of his last 11 games (8.4 PPG) while connecting on 14-of-28 three-pointers. His current 50% rate on threes is a welcome relief to a team connecting on just 29.8 percent, the league's second-worst mark. LA takes this one by double digits.