Scott Rickenbach
Columbia @ Princeton
PICK: Columbia +6.5
Columbia may not be in the mix when it comes to the Ivy League regular season crown, but the Lions have played like a top team in the conference in recent outings, taking the fight to Harvard, Yale and Cornell. Columbia’s outside shooting gives it a chance to win every time it takes the floor. It shoots almost 37 percent from beyond the arc on the season and drained 16 3-point buckets in a blowout win over Brown last week. Head coach Kyle Smith let an upset win over Yale slip through his fingers last Saturday and has had all week to right the ship and prepare for Princeton Friday night. The Lions have struggled against up-tempo teams, losing control and coughing up the basketball. However, the Tigers’ deliberate style is more Columbia’s pace. Princeton is ripe for the letdown spot after handing Ivy League leader Harvard an upset loss last Saturday. The Tigers caught fire down the stretch and had five players score in double figures – a rare feat for a program that averages just 64 points per outing. That performance versus the Crimson has inflated Princeton’s spread for Friday and given terrific value to an underrated Columbia squad. The Lions are a profitable 5-3 ATS on the road this season and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games getting the points.
David Banks
Phoenix Suns
ESPNs Friday night doubleheader closes out with a Pacific Division match-up between Steve Nashs Phoenix Suns (12-18, 12-18 ATS) and Kobe Bryants Los Angeles Lakers (17-12, 13-16 ATS); tip-off from the Staples Center is set to go live at 10:30 ET.
Since going on its longest win streak of the season (3-games), Phoenix has gotten back to losing games while also failing to cover the pointspread in doing so. The Suns have dropped three of their last four games heading into tonights match-up with the rival Lakers which is the first of a home and home series with the back end to be played back in the desert on Sunday night. The Suns extended their losing streak to three both SU & ATS their last time out after dropping a tough 101-99 home decision to the Atlanta hawks; the two-point defeat saw them fail to cover as one-point underdogs. The defense faltered in all three losses allowing each opponent to average 104 points per game 7+ points more than their seasonal average of 96.9 PPG allowed (#21). Though the Suns have dropped seven of their 17 overall road games, theyve managed an 8-9 record versus the closing pointspread.
The Lakers won their second game in a row on Tuesday night by grinding out an 86-78 home win and cover against the Atlanta Hawks; LA closed as 5.5-point favorites. The pointspread triumph halted their mini two-game losing streak against the closing number and pulled them to within two-games of the Pacific Division leading Clippers. Its been the big three of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Andrew Bynum thats led the Lakers charge to date, as the next highest scorer after them is Matt Barnes whose only been good for an average of 7.0 PPG. With the lack of offense, Coach Mike Brown has had to rely on his defense to keep the squad in games against stiffer competition. So far, that MO has somewhat held up with LA giving up an average of just 90.4 PPG (#4) on 41.7 percent shooting from the field (#1). The Lakers have been at their best in front of the Tinseltown crowd winning 12 of 14 and covering the spread in nine of those contests.
The purple and gold already owns a commanding win against the Suns this season after trouncing them 99-83 as 7.5-point home chalk back in early January. The win was the teams third straight in the recent series (1-1-1 ATS) and moved them to 7-3 SU but just 4-5-1 ATS in the L/10; the over cashed in six of those games. Though the road team has covered at a 5-1-1 clip the L/7, Phoenix has gone a bankroll depleting 8-20-1 ATS the L/29 times it opposed a +.500 opponent. Los Angeles has covered seven of its L/10 against sub .500 road teams, but checks in with just a 4-10-1 ATS record its L/15 within the division.
Free NBA Pick for 2/17: Dallas Mavericks/Philadelphia 76ers OVER 179.5 points. Both of these teams have been solid under plays so far this season. But Dallas has gotten it going offensively lately, averaging 100.8 points/game over their last five while allowing opponents to over 92/game in that stretch. Philly has not been as strong defensively without C Spencer Hawes, who will be out for tonights game as well. The 76ers are allowing 90.8 points/game in their five games without the big center, and they've allowed opponents to score triple digits twice in that stretch. The under is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings with these two clubs. But that trend is deceiving to bettors because only once in the last six times between these two did they score less than 179.5 total points. Both clubs enter tonights game off a day of rest. Philadelphia should be hungry for a win after a beat-down in Orlando. The over has cashed 7 times in the Sixers last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Dallas is finally healthy and firing on all cylindars. The over is a solid 4-1 in the Mavericks last 5 after scoring triple digits their last time out. We'll take the OVER 179.5 tonight in Philadelphia. Our overall free picks record is 163-86-1, and 3-1 L4. Sign up today at www.iseewinners.com to receive all of our free releases via email. Thank you and best of luck.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Columbia +6.5
Princeton is being overvalued following its upset win over Harvard. The Tigers defeated Columbia by just 4 points in the season's first meeting, and they should get a major test here as well.
The Lions have been very good away from home this season. They have won 5 of their last 8 on the road, and their 2 conference defeats during this span came by just 5 points each to Cornell and Harvard. The Lions also have impressive wins over Manhattan and Loyola Marymount during this stretch.
The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a road underdog. The Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 6.5 points or less. Also, the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Take Columbia.
Steve Janus
Memphis Grizzlies -3½
The Grizzlies are getting no respect at all in this game. Memphis has won four of their last 5 overall and are plenty rested for the depleted Nuggets tonight. The Grizzlies have had to play just one road game in the last 12 days. The Nuggets will be playing their third road game in a week, but most importantly they will be playing without Danilo Gallinari, Nene, and possibly Timofey Mozgov(Game-Time-Decision).
While the Nuggets have a deep bench, Gallinari and Nene are two guys they really need in the lineup to play their best basketball. Injuries are a big reason why Denver is just 2-6 over their last 8 games. To give you an idea of how bad Denver is playing, four of those losses came at home, where they play their best.
Another reason to like the Grizzlies here is the fact that they are 3-1 SU & ATS in games played in Memphis over the last three seasons. That lone road game for the Grizzlies just so happened to be their last game, which they won 105-100 at New Jersey. Memphis is 11-2 ATS in home games off a road win over the last 2 seasons. The Grizzlies are also 32-19 ATS as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons and 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Dave Price
1 Unit Golden State Warriors +9½
The Warriors have been a strong investment in this price range, going 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Plus, they are 10-2 ATS in the last 12 road meetings in this series. Having already seen the Thunder twice this season, and playing them to a 3-point game last week, I like Golden State's chances of keeping this one within the number.
Craig Trapp
Warriors vs. Thunder
Play: Over 207½
Repeat of premium pick of just a few weeks ago and the last time these two squared off. Both games this year went over this total by more than 10 pts and think you'll see the same tonight. GS is great over team on the road allowing over 102 pts per game. Look for OKC to take advantage of this terrible defense as they go for 120 tonight.
Andre Gomes
Orlando Magic -7.5
These two teams faced each other on Saturday, so what are the differences between that game and tonight's game? The main difference will be in physical terms, as the spot was very favorable to the Bucks last Saturday. Orlando was coming from games against the Clippers (OT), then against Miami and finally against Atlanta. So, the Magic had played in the night before in a game that went to overtime and all their starters had been on the court for at least 35 minutes. On the other hand, Milwaukee was also coming from a back to back overtime game against Cleveland, but the minutes had been more shared by the Bucks roster, as Milwaukee has a deeper bench than Orlando.
In the game between these two teams, Milwaukee dominated the boards and the 2nd unit edge was quite evident, as note at the +/- of Orlando's starters in that game: Nelson +17; J Rich +19; Ryan +17; Hedo +17 and Howard +5! The problem was that every Orlando bench player had DD negative numbers on +/-! Milwaukee has natural problems in scoring on the inside with 11-22 FG at the rim and 1-8 FG from 3-9 feet, however they shot really well from the outside with 12-26 FG from 16-23 feet and 9-22 3pts! Orlando won the game via their outside shooting, with a red hot J Rich shooting 9-11 3pts, helping the team to shoot a combined of 15-37 3pts!
Having in account the good spot of Orlando for this contest and the fact that they are coming from a monster game against the best perimeter defense in the league, the Magic won't have any problems in scoring tonight. Milwaukee is coming from a home loss against an injury-riddled New Orleans, where they shot 11-28 FG at the rim against a depleted frontcourt of the Hornets! Considering the good physical spot of Orlando tonight, they have everything to blowout the Bucks and so, I'll take them in here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Dartmouth/ Yale Over 123: The Over is 8-3 the last 11 meetings. The stumbling block for this play will be how much can Dartmouth score? Well I actually expect them to hit 60 + points here. Dartmouth has struggled to score this year as they have averaged just 57.3 ppg overall and 55.5 ppg in their last 5 games, but they do score 60.3 ppg at home, including 60.5 ppg in their last 2 Ivy home games and they will be taking on a Yale squad that has allowed 71.5 ppg on the road (vs Division 1) overall and 63 ppg (regulation) in their Ivy league road games. So Expecting 60+ points out of Dartmouth is not as far fetched. on the other side we have a Yale team that has averaged 68.1 ppg overall (Division 1) and 70.9 ppg on the road and they will be facing a Dartmouth team that has allowed 63.3 ppg overall and 62.9 ppg at home, so expecting about 65 points out of Yale is not out of the question. Even though this game is on Dartmouth's home court, Yale is the better team and they should get this game at their pace and that should put this game in the 130's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Brown +21.5 over HARVARD: I have been high on this Harvard team all year, but as good as they have been they have just 1 Ivy League win of 20+ points. Brown on the other hand has struggled this year, but they still have just 1 Ivy League loss of more than 17 points, plus we note that Brown is 7-2 ATS the last 9 in the series and they did lose by just 9 to the Crimson earlier in the year. Harvard doesn't play a faced paced game as they look for their best shot on offense and then rely on their tough defense to win their games. That kind of pace will not allow them many 20 point wins on the year and it shows by the fact that they have outscored their Ivy league opponents by just 12.4 ppg, while down the stretch it has been even worse as they have outscored their opponents by just 7.8 ppg in their last 4 wins. Brown has been outscored by 16 ppg on the road this year, but by just 13 points in Ivy League road games. No way in the world does Brown win this one outright, but because of the deliberate slow pace the Crimson play at, which will limit Harvard's ability to get enough possessions to cover this large number, I expect Brown to lose by no more than 16 in this one.
Loyola-Cal/ Valparaiso Under 137.5: Rather lofty OU line considering the way that Valpo plays their games away from home. Valpo's last 4 home games have averaged 136.6 ppg, while their last 6 games on e the road have put up just 116.3 ppg. That's a 20 point difference. This team tends to slow the pace down when they hit the road and it seems to have been successful for them as they have won 4 of those 6 road contest, so I do expect them to employ the same game plan tonight. Valpo's last 5 overall have put up just 126.2 ppg as they have averaged 65.4 ppg, while allowing just 60.8 ppg over the 5 game stretch. Loyola has been playing a bunch of games right around this number of late and their last 5 overall have averaged 142.4 ppg, but still 4 of their last 5 home games have come in at 135 or less and if ya take out the game with SF that put up 178 points, then their other last 4 home games have averaged just 125 ppg. Normally in the top 50 in shots per game Loyal is just 136th in that category with 55.6 spg, including just 52.7 spg in their last 3 games, while Valpo is on of the slower paced teams in the nation as they have put up just 49.5 spg (42.7 in their last 3), which is 324th in the nation. There will not be a ton of shots in this game and that will make it hard for this one to even reach 130, let alone 138.
2 UNIT PLAY
VCU/ Northern Iowa Over 125: Play Over in all games with a total of 129.5 or less and the home team is off a close loss of 3 points or less to a conference rival and this is a non-conference game. This play is 23-5 since 1997.
1 UNIT PLAY
VCU -6 over Northern Iowa: VA COMMONWEALTH is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons, while N IOWA is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons.
Rocketman
Milwaukee @ Orlando
Play: Milwaukee +8
Milwaukee is 18-7 ATS last 3 years on the road when the total is between 190 and 194 1/2. Milwaukee is 17-6 ATS last 3 years after 3 or more consecutive losses. Orlando is 1-5 ATS this year after 3 or more consecutive wins. Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Bucks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games. Bucks are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 Friday games. Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Magic are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Magic are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 Friday games. Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Magic are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Bucks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Milwaukee tonight!
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Northern Iowa +6
With the way these teams are capable of getting after it on the defensive end, I expect this game to go right down to the wire. One thing you don't want to do is make a habit out of going against the N. Iowa Panthers when they're catching points. The Panthers are 25-11-1 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog, 55-27-1 ATS in their last 83 games as a road underdog and 16-4-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 6.5 points or less. It's also worth mentioning that the VCU Rams are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite. We'll take the points.
Dave Essler
Loyola Marymount -5
The more I tried to back Valpo, the more it became clear the Marymount is the right side. First off, Valpo hasn;t left the Midwest since they played game number one at Arizona back in November, and that didn't go well. They've lost on the road in convincing fashion to Wright State, Wisconsin Green Bay, and Youngstown State. None of them are all that good, and they play in the Horizon League which is just not as good as the WCC. Yes, they beat Cleveland State on the road, but again, Cleveland State has amassed their numbers in a subpar Conference and may well also be a bit over rated. Marymount needs this game far more. There is little or no chance they win the WCC title, while it's feasible that Valop can win the Horizon. Valpo shoots threes, which is not something we like to back on the road. Maymount defends the perimeter pretty well, and their in a tiny gym which always give the advantage to the home team, especially on a Friday night.
Valpo turns the ball over a ton, which is just not backable on the road for me. Marymount gets to the line a ton, plays a little quicker, and has a MUCH deeper rotation. So, in the end, Valpo may be getting too much credit for beating Cleveland State on the road, while Maymount may not be getting enough for beating St. Mary's. People may be expecting a regression here from Marymount, but I see it is a spring board game (beating St. Mary's). So, let's fade the team that is thousands of miles from home for the first time, in a small arena, with a shorter bench, and that doesn't protect the ball. The only way they win is by going off from deep, while LM can win this handily any number of ways.
Fairway Jay
Northern Iowa at VCU
Play: Under 125
Let’s tip off the Bracket Buster weekend with a totals play against the money move. Northern Iowa travels to the Siegel Center in Richmond, Virginia to take on VCU on ESPNU. The Rams are 11-1 at home, and note in their last eight home games, VCU has allowed the following scores in regulation: 43, 56, 49, 48, 60, 45, 55 and 49 points.
VCU (22-6) is in second place in the Colonial Athletic Association while Northern Iowa (17-11) is in seventh place in the stronger Missouri Valley Conference. Recall the Rams made a surprising run to the Final Four last season as an 11th-seed in the NCAA Tournament, and head coach Shaka Smart’s team is playing solid defense again this year. The Rams athletic guards have led them to the top spot in steals and turnover margin in the CAA. A letdown could be looming after the Rams 11-game winning streak was snapped Tuesday in a last-second loss to league-leader George Mason, 62-61.
Northern Iowa also lost its own heartbreaker to Evansville Wednesday on a last second 3-pointer, 63-62. Both teams will try to rebound, but it can be tough emotionally and the both shoot poorly from inside the arch. Overall, these teams make less than 42% of their shots against conference opponents, and NIU is going to be more challenged to make shots against a stronger defense on the road. Combined with slow pace ratings (NIU 232rd, VCU 264th), we’ll call for a lower-scoring game.
WUNDERDOG
Dallas at Philadelphia
Pick: Under 180
The Philadelphia 76ers have become the new kids on the block in the NBA Atlantic. They have already beaten some impressive teams here in the Lakers, Indiana, Orlando, Chicago, and Atlanta. They have done it with an incredible defense on their home court that has seen 14 of their 18 opponents held in the 80s or less. Dallas will get their attention because they have won five straight, and are the reigning champs in the NBA. The Mavs have also been highly defensive resulting in 18 of their last 27 falling shy of the total. Philly has also been at their defensive best after a loss having gone 15-3 to the under in their last 18 after a setback. Play the UNDER in this one.