Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 18,2011

Marc Lawrence

Dartmouth at Columbia
Prediction: Dartmouth

When Dartmouth travels to Columbia to take on the Lions in Ivy League action Friday night they will take the court with same season revenge from a 66-45 loss suffered earlier this year, the Big Green's worst home defeat of the season. With Columbia off a 13-point win over Penn (1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS in games after taking on the Quakers and having a big same season revenge up next against Harvard tomorrow night, look for the Lions to dip to 7-12 ATS as a host in this series here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Dartmouth.

Frank Jordan

New York Rangers vs. New Jersey Devils
Play: New Jersey Devils

The Rangers have won their last two games including a 4-3 win in a shoot out last night, but are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games and have fallen to number 7 in the East. The Devils have been hot of late, but it may end up being too little too late as they are still 12 points back of the 8th team despite having only 4 fewer wins. The Devils have wins in each of their last five games and are 8-1-1 in their last 10. With this hot streak New Jersey is 13-13-3 at home and the Rangers have a winning record on the road at 17-12-1. In this rivalry over the Hudson look for the Devils to beat them like the did last time out 3-2. Play New Jersey

Jim Feist

UConn at Louisville
Pick: Under

An outstanding matchup of defensive oriented teams with a lot at stake, both at 8-5 in the Big East chasing Notre Dame and Pitt. UConn is No. 1 defensively in the Big East allowing 39% shooting by opponents, while Louisville is 5th allowing 40.5% shooting. Louisville has some trouble at the free throw line, ranked 15th in the conference, and hitting (or missing) freebies is an edge with totals. Connecticut is off a win over Georgetown, but but was only 4-of-14 (28.6 percent) from beyond the arc. Louisville dropped its last game, falling at Cincinnati, scoring just 54 points (63-54). The Under is 8-3 in Huskies last 11 overall and the Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last 8 home games. I expect a wild crowd and a fierce defensive effort on both sides. When they met last month it went over the total, but that was in double overtime. It was 59-59 all in regulation, 22 points under the total. Play UConn/Louisville Under the total.

Kent St at Drexel
Pick: Under

A Bracket Buster game featuring a pair of terrific defensive teams. Drexel allows 58.8 ppg, second best in the Colonial, and tops in field goal shooting defense (40% shooting allowed). Drexel is on an 8-0 run under the total! They take on a Kent State team (17-8) that is solid defensively, plus on an 11-6 run under the total. Both teams are closing in on 20 wins and can improve their RPI rankings, so look for a defensive battle. Play Kent/Drexel Under the total.

Brent Brooks

Brown +2

When the Bears faced Penn on the road, it was decided in overtime and only lost by 2 and here we get them at home +2? Penn is on a bad run of four losses in a row, three of those in OT, two in double OT. This will be a fourth straight road game for the Quakers. Everything stacks up for this to be a great spot for Brown and a favorable number worth jumping on here.

San Jose St. +1

Weber State has played surprisingly well since Damian Lillard went down for the season with an injury. They haven't just been winning, but shooting the ball so well they have put together several wins in a row (including a few routs). SJSU's conference record has included wins and forgivable losses. Adrian Oliver will once again be the best player on the floor and he leads the Spartans to a win here effectively giving Weber State a reality check outside of the Big Sky bubble they've been in.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Virginia Commonwealth at Wichita State

This is a Bracket Buster matchup of two teams needing a win to solidify any shot of at-large status in next month's NCAA Tournament. In that regard, VCU needs this game much worse as they enter off BB home losses to conference rivals Old Dominion and George Mason. We find the Rams are a strong 21-9 ATS off a conference loss by double digits. Take the points.

Play on: Virginia Commonwealth

Tom Freese

Connecticut vs. Louisville
Play: Connecticut +4

Louisville is 19-7 straight up this year. The Cardinals are 4-10 ATS their last 14 Friday games. Louisville is 10-21 ATS after a Conference game. The Cardinals 12-27 ATS in home games after failing to cover in 3 of their last 4 games. Louisville 12-27 in home games after failing to cover in 3 of their last 4 games. The Cardinals are 9-19 ATS after two straight Conference games.

SPORTS WAGERS

Boston -½ -103 over OTTAWA

It’s hard to imagine the Sens competing here or anywhere for the remainder of the season. Not only have the Sens traded away some of their most talented players, they also traded away a big part of the heart of this team. Chris Kelly was as gritty as Mike Fisher and both guys were popular in the locker room. So, too, was Jarkko Ruutu. The word is that Ruutu’s presence in the locker room will be missed most of all, as he was loved by everyone and kept things very loose. In any case, things are looking very bleak for the Sens in the next couple of years and one has to wonder how veteran guys like Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek and Alex Kovalev will stay motivated in the season’s final few weeks. The Sens leading point getter is Erik Karlsson with 32 and that’s a pathetic fact. The B’s are coming off a rather easy victory last night in a game they led 3-0 after 10 minutes in, 4-0 after a minute into the second and 6-2 going to the third. They really should be able to come in here and do the same thing to the reeling and likely disinterested Sens. Play: Boston -½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Rocketman

Philadelphia Flyers vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Play: Philadelphia Flyers

Philadelphia is a nice 19-9 SU on the road this year. Philadelphia is 10-1 SU overall vs Carolina the past 3 years including 5-0 SU at Carolina past 3 seasons. Philadelphia is 7-1 last 8 against a team with a losing record. Philadelphia is 39-12 last 51 against Eastern Conference teams. Philadelphia is 41-16 last 57 games as a favorite. Carolina is 8-21 last 29 as an underdog. Carolina is 0-6 last 6 games as a home underdog. Philadelphia is 27-7 last 34 meetings in this series. We'll recommend a small play on Philadelphia tonight!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Louisville -3.5

The road has given the Cardinals some trouble this season, but they have continued to handle their business at home where they are 16-2. Louisville did, however, defeat UConn on the road for a second straight time last month. It was Louisville's third straight win over the Huskies. Motivated by a loss at Cincinnati last game, expect the Cards to notch a fourth straight win over the Huskies tonight. It's always tough to head out on the road following an extended stay at home. In fact, UConn is just 19-35 ATS in road games after playing 2 consecutive home games under coach Calhoun. The Huskies are also just 24-40 ATS following 2 or more consecutive home wins under Calhoun. The Cards have even taken care of business at home against high quality road teams. They are, in fact, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600 and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Huskies are just 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in this head-to-head series. We'll take the Cards at home tonight.

Jack Jones

Drexel -5

The Drexel Dragon are showing excellent value as a small home favorite tonight against Kent State in a Bracket Buster showdown. That's especially the case since they are coming off such a bad loss at UNC-Wilmington last time out where they shot just 26.2% from the floor. The Dragons were clearly looking ahead to this contest against the Flashes, who also lost at Miami Ohio last time out. Drexel is 10-2 at home this season, winning by 12.1 PPG. Kent State is 5-7 on the road, getting outscored by 1.5 PPG.

This play falls into a system that is 82-41 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on a favorite (DREXEL) - after a game where a team made 28% of their shots or worse. Off their worst game of the season, there's no question the Dragons are hungry and ready to respond. Drexel is 9-1 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons. The Dragons are 9-1 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less over the last 3 seasons. They are coming back to win in this spot by an average of 14.0 PPG. Take Drexel Friday.

Info Plays

3* Drexel -5

Reasons why Drexel will cover:

1) Drexel is 9-1 ATS off an embarrassing road loss scoring less than 60 points over the last 2 seasons, and 9-1 ATS in home games after scoring 55 points or less over the last 3 seasons.

2) Kent State is just 9-26 ATS in their last 35 non-conference games.

3) Drexel is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.

JR O'Donnell

Minnesota -130

The O'ster is hot...3-0 last night & tonight's members play is on the Minny Wild - 130 who needs to & will hang up a much needed W tonight @ the Xcel Energy Center. Super #'s here as the home team holds serve @ 25-7-1 in the last 33 meetings! The Wild are running up against a hot crew as they love to play away... winners of 6 out 6 ! Now they come to Minny a -130 dog wow! Anaheim is 0-4 the last 4 trips to Minny. The Wild have only scored 2 lousy goals in 2 ugly losses. 4-1 Vancouver & 3-1 Chicago. They light the lamp tonight. The Minny Wild are 12th on the penalty kill with an 82.6% kill rate! Favorite is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. Minny wins 3-1 ....Bang It home

TELLY

One of my three plays tonight

Princeton -3

Black Widow

1* on Wichita State -8.5

Wichita State is the class of the Missouri Valley Conference. They will have no problem taking care of Virginia Commonwealth tonight, a team that is really struggling right now. VCU has lost back-to-back home games to ODU and George Mason by 11 and 20 points, respectively. They stand no chance of keeping this one close at Wichita State, a team that is better than both ODU and George Mason. Wichita State is 23-5 this season, winning by 12.2 points/game and 11-3 at home winning by 14.6 points/game. We have seen the Shockers play a few times this season and they certainly pass the eye test. Wichita State is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive overs this season. This is a team that could reach the Sweet 16 this season, and a blowout win tonight will help solidify them as an NCAA Tournament squad in this Bracket Buster game. Take Wichita State and lay the points.