Nelly
Virginia + over Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech appears to have nearly moved into a 'lock' status for the NCAA tournament after missing the tournament the last three years as a borderline case. Wins over Oklahoma State and Penn State helped the cause on the non-conference slate but with a few tough games remaining another late season slide is not out of the question. After a big home win over Maryland earlier in the week it may be tough to get full motivation for a trip to rival Virginia, a team that has been struggling. Virginia beat Virginia Tech in early December in a rare early conference clash and while the Cavaliers have lost eight of the last ten games the home losses in that span have come against North Carolina, Maryland, and Duke. Virginia has home wins over Georgia Tech and Clemson and this should be the biggest game left on the schedule for the Cavaliers in what has been a disappointing season. Despite the losing, Virginia is 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games and the home team has won outright in seven of the last ten meetings between these teams. In the three instances in that span where the road team won, two wins came in overtime and Virginia's win in Blacksburg earlier this season came by just three points so another close game should be expected. Virginia is 6-3 ATS at home for the season and Virginia Tech is 3-4 S/U on the road. Look for a serious battle in this rivalry game as these teams should play closer than the overall records project and there will be value on the home underdog.
Sac Lawson
Mercer +3
First off, this is a 1.5 unit Premium Play. In other words, there is no difference between this play and the two I put out last night in a $15 package. Anyways, here's why I like the Bears tonight:
Mercer has seriously picked it up over the last 10 games. They've won 8 of those 10, and the majority of it has been without Brandon Moore, who was their leading rebounder, and a double digit scorer. This team has gelled without him, for whatever reason. Mercer's story goes a little something like this: They were solid last season, and coming into this season they lost a great bulk of their leadership, and they lost the majority of their offensive threats. Anytime that happens to a team, the early contests are going to be rough. It takes time for guys to find out what their new role is. For Mercer, it took half a season, but the point is... Mercer has found that niche, they've got guys that know what their role is on the team, and they are hitting stride because of it. It's a predictable trend in college hoops, talented teams that lose some top guys from the previous season tend to take time to show their true worth... I think Mercer is starting to do that, though.
On the North Florida side, they are starting to trend downward a bit. For me the most shocking stat that hovers over this team is the fact that they lead in the conference in FG%, yet they are one of the worst overall offensive teams. How does that work? Well, they don't crash the glass offensively, and they turn the ball over a ton. This North Florida team is extremely small, and extremely young. In the first matchup with Mercer, they shot 55% for the game. So, even though they were out-rebounded, they found a way to make jump shots that night.
In season revenge for the more experienced team, the more talented team, and the hotter team. I like the way that sounds, regardless of the fact that it means they have to travel to get a win. Mercer has a huge size advantage against UNF, not necessarily in terms of a big man down low, but simply across all positions. I think Mercer continues to play well with the chemistry they've found over the last month or so. I'm takin' em for a 1.5 unit premium play!