DAVE COKIN
FLYERS AT CANADIENS
PLAY: FLYERS +100
The focus of the topic today is Michel Therrien, the beleaguered head coach of the reeling Montreal Canadiens. This team started the season in spectacular fashion, winning nine in a row. But with superstar goaltender Carey Price sidelined, it’s been a steady downhill decline ever since and the Habs are now looking like a team that will be packing the equipment away on April 9, when the regular season ends.
There’s lots of hockey to still be played between now and then, and anything is possible. But in view of what has taken place this week, I have to think a sudden recovery for the Canadiens is unlikely.
Therrien has done a couple of things this week that are just a little nuts, and I wonder if he could be on the verge of losing the respect of his players.
First, following a very ugly 6-2 loss at Arizona on Monday, Therrien decided to send a message via the punishment route. He put the team through a very tough practice on Tuesday morning that opened with wind sprints followed by one-on-one length of the ice duels. I guess this was a motivational ploy. But to do so the morning after a game, and after traveling, and doing so in the Denver altitude…wow, that’s just not smart.
The Canadiens did actually perform well early in their Wednesday night clash with the Avalanche. But they couldn’t protect the lead, and then fell behind late in the third period when All-Star defenseman P.K. Subban lost his balance, got stripped of the puck in the offensive zone, Colorado got an odd-man break and Jerome Iginla easily scored what turned out to be the game winner.
Therrien then proceeded to lose it post-game. He flat out put the blame for the loss on Subban. That was after he benched both Subban and team captain Max Pacioretty for the final couple minutes of a 3-2 game.
I can understand the frustration for Therrien and all the players. They have to be hurting about the way this once very promising season has fallen apart. But the hard-core practice the morning after a bad game in that Colorado altitude was ill-advised. Benching the team captain and verbally lambasting the team’s best player after the next loss was even worse.
As it stands now, barring a spectacular turnaround, Therrien is almost surely gone after the season. Actually, I wonder why he’s still behind the bench now. Sure, the Price injury was absolutely huge. But it’s not the only reason this team has won a meager 18 games since that 9-0 start.
As for this evening, the Philadelphia Flyers are on the outside looking in as far as the playoff race goes. But they’re pushing hard to get to the post-season and the Flyers are clearly in better form than the Habs at this juncture. Maybe Montreal responds to the hard coaching in a positive way, but I’m looking at Therrien as a lame duck and I much prefer going the fade route when I think that’s the case. I’m on the Flyers to pick up the deuce on the road this time.
Stephen Nover
Heat vs. Hawks
Play:Heat +9½
Let's get something straight here. Even though the Heat won't have Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside, who is suspended for this one game, they aren't the 76ers or Suns. Yet that's the way the oddsmaker has priced this game.
The Heat rank No. 2 in the NBA in defense permitting 96.3 points a game. They still have a rested Dwayne Wade, who has been playing well the past nine games. Miami has gone 6-3 in those games and needs this game very much trailing Atlanta by one game for the fourth-best record in the Eastern Conference.
OK, so what do the Heat do minus Bosh and his team-leading 19.1 points per game? Veteran Luol Deng and promising rookie Justise Winslow can pick up the slack.
OK, how about no Whiteside then? The Heat didn't have Whiteside against the Hawks when the teams last met on Jan. 31 in Miami. The Heat had no problem beating the Hawks, 105-87. Veteran Amar'e Stoudemire filled in well for Whiteside scoring 13 points and grabbing 12 rebounds in a little more than 21 minutes. Stoudemire is 33, but still can be effective with adequate rest. The Heat last played 10 days ago.
Miami's strength was having a surplus of big men. They still have Stoudemire, Udonis Haslem and Josh McRoberts. The Hawks' major weakness is rebounding. Kyle Korver has turned back into a pumpkin and the other Hawks All-Stars from a year ago are having down performances compared to last season. Atlanta's bench also is weaker than from a year ago.
If this were last season's Hawks, I could see this spread. But not this season. This is a key division game for the Heat. They have the depth and proven big-game veteran toughness to step up in this spot especially having ample rest.
Sleepyj
Akron -4
I'll grab Akron here tonight on the road...This is one team i think can be a big dance cinderella...They do many things well and they sit in the top 100 in most stat categories....I can't say the same thing for Kent St. here...Kent St has struggled over the last 7 games..They very well can be 1-6 in the last 7 games...They snuck out a 1 point win a few games back, but they lost 3 straight during this stretch by double-digits...This is the first meeting of these two this year...Akron only has one more road game and it's the next one after this..They would like to win both of these and head back home for three straight home games..I really don't see much to back Kent St here even at home..They got lucky in the last game, but i doubt they get lucky in this one..Akron is playing to make a statement to themselves tonight..I think they cover this number rather easy...I made my number -5, but i feel a double digit win is in the cards.
Rob Vinciletti
Charlotte vs Milwaukee
Play: Charlotte -105
Play on road teams with 4 or more days rest off a spread win by 10+ points as a road dog, like the Hornets. These teams are 21-4 ats and 13-1 ats vs a team off a spread win like the Bucks. Milwaukee has failed to cover the last 3 at home vs Charlotte an is a dismal 3-16 ats home off a home favored win. Charlotte has home loss revenge. The Hornets sting the Bucks tonight.
Marc Lawrence
Dartmouth vs. Cornell
Play: Cornell -1½
Edges - Big Red: 7-3 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in this series. Big Green: 1-9 SU and 2-5 ATS away this season; and 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS versus greater than .333 opponents this season. With Cornell sporting a 16-2 SU and 13-5 ATS mark in this series in games in which they own the better record, we recommend a 1* play on Cornell.
Will Rogers
Canucks vs. Flames
Play: Canucks +134
The Vancouver Canucks were booed off the ice in a home loss to Anaheim last night, and they'll be eager to get back into action when they play on the road in Calgary just 24 hours later. While Vancouver has lost six in a row at home, it has won four of it's last five on the road. I think the Canucks might snap this losing skid in Calgary tonight.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Previous History - The Canucks aren't the only ones struggling on home ice, Calgary has lost back-to-back games at the Saddledome, and they are just 2-5 in their last seven home games against teams with a losing record.
2. Special Teams - The Flames are brutal on special teams, with the league's worst penalty kill, and a power-play unit that ranks 29th. They allowed one power-play goal, as well as a short-handed goal in a 5-3 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday.
3. X-Factor - Calgary is a little thin on the blue line, with three key defensemen unavailable (Smid, Russell and Wideman).
Scott Spreitzer
Harvard vs. Columbia
Play: Columbia -7½
The Lions are two games back of Yale in the Ivy League standings with four games to go, so there is a chance they could catch the Bulldogs before the end of the season. Tonight, they're "catching" a disappointing Harvard team. Tommy Amaker's troops were 9-8 SU through their first 17 games. That's not bad when you consider they played Providence, Kansas, BYU, Auburn, and Oklahoma, all away from home, beating BYU and Auburn along the way. Harvard has won just one of their last seven games SU, though, and have dropped eight straight ATS. Offense is a problem with just one player averaging in double digits in scoring. So, while they have played well on the defensive end, the Crimson rank 311th in scoring. Making matters worse is their 58% mark at the FT line. If a game is on the line, whether SU or ATS, Harvard's struggles at the stripe will cost you more often than not. Columbia has won 13 of their last 16 SU and average over 76 ppg on the season. Four players average between 16 and 11 ppg and the backcourt is loaded with "dishers." Columbia will look to atone for an OT loss to Princeton in their most recent outing and they have not lost two straight games since late November. In fact, they'll enter on a 12-5 ATS run off a SU loss. Too much offense on one side and not enough on the other.
Mike Lundin
Nuggets vs. Kings
Play: Nuggets +4
The Sacramento Kings lost eight of their last 10 prior to the All Star break and there are some tension within the club with coach George Karl under heavy fire from upper management. They're 0-5 ATS in their last five and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The Nuggets won three of four heading into the break and won 103-92 at Detroit their last time out. They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Sacramento.
The Kings rank last in the league by allowing 109.1 points per game and an atrocious 118.6 through their last five. I don't think they can stop the Nuggets here and there might even be a good idea to throw a unit on Denver to win outright.
Art Aronson
Pacers vs. Thunder
Play: Pacers +9
We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
We’re basing this prediction on a couple of simple, but what we feel to be key factors:
Classic look-ahead spot: With a game vs. the Cavaliers at home on Sunday, followed by a road trip in Dallas and at New Orleans next week, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side in some small way looking ahead to those much more “important” contests.
ATS statistics: Note that Indiana is 19-7-2 ATS in its last 28 when playing with three or more days rest, while OKC is is just 15-15 ATS at home this season and only 3-7 ATS in its last ten overall.
The bottom line: When taking into account the “spot” situation and these strong trends, in our professional opinion the PACERS are absolutely worthy of a second look in this position.
Bob Harvey
Wolves vs. Grizzlies
Play: Grizzlies -4
The new look Memphis Grizzlies begin a post All-Star break homestand when they host the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Grizzlies are favored by -4.5 with the total at 203.Memphis lost Marc Gasol to a broken foot prior to the break and then traded Courtney Lee and Jeff Green prior to Thursday's deadline. Chris Andersen and P.J. Hairston, as well as Lance Stephenson, joined Memphis (31-22, 26-26 ATS) who start play in fifth place in the Western Conference.
The Timberwolves (17-37, 24-29 ATS) who stood pat at the deadline, have won three of four before the break but are getting close to clinching their 11th consecutive losing season. There is light at the end of the table with Karl-Anthony Towns and Zach LaVine leading an improved T-Wolves offense that is averaging 110.8 points in five games this month.
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings but just 3-8 in the past 11 in Memphis. The Grizzlies are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 home games. On the flip side, Memphis is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference teams and 1-4 ATS in its past eight against the Northwest Division.
Memphis is on an 8-0 run to the OVER. It’s also 10-1-1 in their last 12 overall, 10-2-1 last 13 on the road and 7-1 to the high side in their last eight games vs. Western Conference opposition.
Jimmy Adams
Iona vs. Monmouth
Play: Iona +6
Iona is a very strong offensive team, as evidenced by their 78-59 beat down of Quinnipiac on Monday. The Gaels did suffer a tough loss at home last week to Siena so this is nearly a "must win" game for them if they want to contend for the conference championship. A.J. English is one of the most underrated players in the country. He's really a triple threat, with the ability to shoot, pass, and penetrate to the basket.
We know that Monmouth is the class of the MAAC, but my clients and I cashed an easy ticket playing against them with Manhattan plus the points in their last game. I have Iona much higher in my power rankings than Manhattan and this is definitely a game that the Gaels can win outright. Take the points as protection but my money will be on Iona here.
Jim Feist
Denver at Oral Roberts
Pick: Under
Denver heads out on the road on a 5-2 run under the total, including 20-8 under in Summit League play. Denver has lost two in a row and the Under is 35-17 in the Pioneers last 52 games following a straight up loss. Oral Roberts is home for Senior Night, so expect a great defensive effort, the final home game of the season. The two teams are jockeying for position in the Summit League standings. Oral Roberts is on a 5-1 run under the total, 4-0 under at home.
Alan Harris
Juventus -170 over Bologna
This is a 90 minutes plus injury time play. If the game ends in a draw we have a loss. Juventus will look to extend their Serie A winning streak to a ridiculous 16 straight games when they take on Bologna at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna, Italy, on Friday afternoon. Juventus has pretty much been the class of the top Italian league since the season started. They currently lead Napoli by just a point in the standings, but they are a better team than The Blues on paper and they defeated them by a score of 1-0 just last Saturday to once again take over the top of the table. Bologna has been up and down all season long as they have some big wins and bad losses but they sit tenth in the league coming into the game on Friday and they come into the game with just a 3-2-2 record over their last seven. Look for Juventus to control the time of possession like they normally do, a stat that has lead them to an outstanding number of just 15 goals allowed through 25 games, and we'll lay the price with them here to get the road win over Bologna as our Weekly Newsletter Free Play in game that we see being another clean sheet for "The Old Lady" on the road on Friday afternoon.
Power Sports
Minnesota vs. Memphis
Pick: Under
Going into the All-Star Break, both of these teams saw a rise in scoring. Minnesota averaged 110.8 PPG its last five games (9.6 PPG above season average) while Memphis averaged 105.2 PPG its last five (5.0 PPG above season average). So there's definitely some value here & that value is on the Under.
Of particular interest to me is the fact that tonight's total is roughly 10 pts higher than what it was for last month's meeting, a 106-101 T'wolves home victory. Yes, both meetings this season have gone Over. But there's been a clear overadjustment for the rubber match due to the recent rise in scoring on both sides. Coming off the long layoff, don't be surprised to see both "regress" back to normal points per game averages. The Grizzlies are in fact 10-3 Under the L13 times they've taken the court w/ 3+ days rest. That includes a perfect 3-0 this season!
Minnesota's defense was also worse than per usual going into the Break. They allowed an average of 110.8 PPG the L5 games, which is a really high number and due to start coming down. Remember that they won't have to deal with Marc Gasol here (injured). The Grizzlies also dealt away starter Courtney Lee yday, so they'll have to work on integrating a new lineup. Look for this one to be lower scoring than expected.
Jesse Schule
Harvard vs. Columbia
Pick: Columbia
Harvard's days of dominating the Ivy league are officially over, and they currently sit in a four way tie at the bottom the conference with a 2-6 record. The Crimson lost their star PG to a season ending injury before the season started, and it's been a struggle since.
Harvard has failed to cover in eight straight overall, and six of eight on the road. Their last three road games were all double digit losses. They are on the road at at Columbia tonight, and the Lions are one of the top teams in the conference with a 6-2 record. They are coming off a loss in a close game versus Princeton (83-80), and they have covered the spread in 12 of their last 17 when coming off a loss.
The Lions are 11-3 at home on the seasons, and they score an average of over 75 points while shooting 40 percent from three-point range at home. A banged up Harvard team could be in four another beating here tonight.