Ari Atari
Boston Celtics -107
The Jazz played poorly last night in Washington with a 103-89 loss and it's going to hard on them after boarding a flight back to Utah in the second game of a back-to-back. The roster on the Jazz spent their break away from the altitude and climate of Utah and they should feel the impact on their endurance after an extended period off, a night flight and a quick turnaround. The Celtics are a fast paced team with a lot of energy to dish out tonight. The team is still on a 10-2 run and they play inspiring ball that is cohesive and balanced for a young group with excellent coaching. Utah is a great matchup for Boston who play 7 of their 8 upcoming games against sub .500 teams. Boston's pace should be too much for Utah to handle for a team that ranks first in the league in shots put up per game against the home team that ranks 29th overall in the same category.
Chase Diamond
Toronto vs. Chicago
Play: Toronto -5½
Here we have the 35-17 Raptors at the 27-26 Bulls. The Bulls gave everything they had last night again'st the Cavs and still went down pretty easy. Now on no rest the Raptors come in to town hungry to keep pace in the east. They were 8-2 going into the break and the Bulls have lost 5 straight games. Raptors also look for a little revenge here as the Bulls have taken 7 straight in this series. Teams on no rest are a money burning 16-29 ATS against a team playing for revenge that is playing their first game after the All Star Break. We are backing a big public team here but I believe the right one here grab this line early.
Ray Monohan
Pistons vs. Wizards
Play: Pistons +1
The Pistons head into Washington on Friday night and the visitors hold value here. Washington comes in off a win over Utah last night, but this team hasn't been all that good as of late. They limped into the All Star break and will be playing an unexpected back to back right out of the break as yesterday's game was a makeup. Detroit made a bit of a roster change by acquiring Tobias Harris from the Magic, as it gives them more versatility, along with a solid ball handler, two things the Pistons have been lacking. Pistons are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 Friday games. Pistons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. With fatigue playing a major role for Washington, look for Detroit to come out here and run them to the ground as they grab an away win here on Friday.
Jimmy Boyd
Knicks -3
New York went into the All-Star break having lost 6 straight and 10 of 11 overall. Their collapse resulted in the firing of head coach Derek Fisher and the perception couldn't be much worse on the Knicks returning from the break. I believe it has them showing great value here as a small road favorite against rival Brooklyn.
The Nets were able to defeat New York 110-104 at home in the previous meeting, but had lost 91-108 in the first matchup. The thing to note about Brooklyn's win is they caught the Knicks in a bad spot, as New York had just pulled off a huge upset win at home against the Celtics the previous night. This time around the Knicks are going to be 100% focused, as this is a game they can't afford to lose if they seriously want to get back in the playoff picture.
Knicks are 22-13 ATS when revenging a loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when playing on 3 or more days of rest and 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs a team that's lost more than 40% of their home games.
We also see that road teams with a line of +3 to -3 who are a marginal losing team (40% - 49%) against a team with a losing record are 95-60 (61%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Mark Franco
Nuggets vs. Kings
Play: Nuggets +4
The next 10 games will likely decide whether or not the Sacramento Kings remain in or fall out of the Western Conference playoff race. Sacramento begins the crucial stretch with consecutive games against Denver - beginning with Friday's home contest - and follows up with home games against the San Antonio Spurs, Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder. That’s a tough slate.
Sacramento lost eight of its last 10 games preceding the All-Star break as Karl continues to have troubles reaching players such as All-Star post DeMarcus Cousins and mercurial point guard Rajon Rondo. Denver has won three of its past four games and is on the fringe of the playoff chase.
Nuggets are 36-17-2 ATS in their last 55 games playing on 3 or more days rest and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. Nuggets are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Sacramento.
Teddy Covers
Wolves vs. Grizzlies
Play: Over 204½
Remember when the Grizzlies were a grind-it-out, halfcourt team that won games with elite defensive efforts? The betting markets remember those days too! Heck, the Grizz were one of the slowest paced teams in the NBA on offense and one of the most efficient NBA teams on defense for the better part of the last five years.
But all that has changed here in 2016, and it changed even more at the trading deadline. A sluggish halfcourt offense has transformed into a ‘push the pace in transition’ offense. A dismal three point shooting team that ranked 29 out of 30 NBA teams in three point shots made last year has suddenly become willing to jack up all kinds of shots from downtown.
The Grizzlies have lost low post defensive stud Marc Gasol to injury. After dealing away Jeff Green and Courtney Lee at the trading deadline, embattled head coach Dave Joerger must adjust his defensive rotations, rotations which have underachieved throughout the course of the ’15-’16 campaign – the Grizzlies are a middle of the pack defensive team, currently ranked #15 in the advanced metric efficiency charts.
Minnesota hasn’t played much defense in any recent season, and this year is no exception. The T-Wolves rank #24 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, allowing more than 106 points per 100 offensive possessions. This young squad is loaded with upper echelon talent, but that talent has not meshed together on the defensive end of the court, not even a little bit!
In two previous meetings this year, we’ve seen two games go flying Over the total by a combined 42.5 points; no sweat winners for Over bettors. Memphis has been riding one of the more under-the-radar trends regarding their totals at home: 18-9-1 to the Over this year, cashing Overs at a 67% clip here at the FedEx Forum. Minnesota’s long term trend points in the same direction, a team that has only cashed eight Under bets in 26 road games this season.
Minnesota is loaded with offensive talent, averaging more than 110 points per game in their last five before the All Star Break. Memphis, waaaay under the radar, has gone 13-2 to the Over in their last 15 games, and they are likely to play even faster post-trade deadline. Even with some modest upwards pressure on this total this morning, an Over bet sure looks like a positive expectation wager to this bettor!
Jack Jones
Phoenix Suns +8.5
The Phoenix Suns have been a covering machine at home here of late. That's because the betting public and the oddsmakers have written them off because of their injuries and the firing of their head coach.
They are constantly catching a ton of points at home as a result, and that is the case again tonight as 8.5-point home dogs to the Houston Rockets. The Suns are 5-3 ATS in their last eight home games overall, which includes a 6-point loss as 7.5-point dogs to these same Rockets on February 4.
It's hard to trust the Houston Rockets right now. They are the most disappointing team in the NBA through the All-Star Break. They tried to trade Dwight Howard during the break but couldn't. Now I question not only his mindset, but the entire team's mindset coming out of the break.
Houston is 8-17 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season. Phoenix is 7-0 ATS vs. teams who attempt 27 or more free throws per game this season. The Rockets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games playing on 3 or more days rest. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Brandon Lee
Nuggets vs. Kings
Play: Kings -3½
I really like the value we are getting with the Kings as a small home favorite against the Nuggets. We are simply seeing Sacramento undervalued here due to having gone just 2-8 SU and 1-8-1 ATS over their last 10 games. At the same time, we are seeing Denver overvalued due to having gone a ridiculous 12-2 ATS over their last 14 games. With the Kings fighting for a playoff spot, this is simply a game they can't afford to lose and with the Nuggets not being a great road team and the fact that Denver gets to host Sacramento next Tuesday, Sacramento should have no problem here winning and covering the number. Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points who are allowing 103+ ppg on the season against an opponent that scored 110 or more in their previous game are just 46-82 (36%) ATS over the last 5 seasons.
Scott Rickenbach
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers
Pick Portland Trail Blazers +9.5
This looks like a fantastic spot to fade the top team in the league. The Warriors are laying significant points on the road here coming off of a long layoff which means they may not be their sharpest. On top of that, Golden State pummeled the Trail Blazers last month in Portland but it was all based on hot shooting. The Warriors simply shot lights out and a repeat of last month's game (GS 87 FGA to POR 96 FGA but yet GS winning by 20 points) is highly unlikely. The point of those stats from the last game is that it shows you that Portland had their chances. The problem was that the Blazers just did not shoot well that night. As for the Warriors, they shot an electric 53% from the field including a ridiculous 56% from three point land. I don't look for these types of numbers tonight after the long layoff of the All Star break. The Blazers are 4-1 SU and ATS when playing with home loss revenge this season. Also, Portland is 7-2 ATS in games with a posted total of 210 points or more this season. The Warriors have a bigger game (at LA versus the Clippers) tomorrow night and could get caught looking ahead here. The value is with the hungry home dog in this one.
SPORTS WAGERS
Vancouver +136 over CALGARY
OT included. Last night was a typical night in the NHL. Minnesota defeated Edmonton 5-2 because Darcy Kuemper was much better than Cam Talbot. Edmonton outshot the Wild, 33-27. Brian Elliott of the Blues remained hot by kicking away 34 of 35 shots in the Blues 2-1 OT victory. Carolina’s Eddie Lack allowed three goals on just 21 shots in a 4-2 loss to the Senators while Craig Anderson allowed two goals on 30 shots. The Maple Leafs outshot New York, 37-20 and lost 4-2 because Antti Raanta was brilliant while Jonathan Bernier was awful. Winnipeg woke up and outshot the Bolts 41-26 but lost 6-5 because Andrej Pavelec was brutal. We all watch enough hockey to know that the team that gets better goaltending is going to win 85-90% of all games. Just ask the Montreal Canadiens about that. It is for that reason that we must play on teams when the goaltending advantage favors our choice by a wide margin.
If the shots on net in this game are anywhere near even, we’ll see you at the cashier’s booth. If the shots on net favor the Canucks, we will absolutely see you at the cashier’s booth. Jonas Hiller is the most unsteady goaltender in the NHL. Hiller fights almost every puck and fights most dump-ins too. The Flames are not worse than they were a year ago but their goaltending is and that is why they are having trouble winning. The Flames save percentage ranks dead last in the NHL and that’s not going to change until they clean house in goal.
Ryan Miller played last night and lost to the Ducks, 5-2. In the tail end of back-to-backs for Vancouver, we can expect the superior Jacob Markstrom to get this start. Markstrom has posted save percentages of .967, .933, .950, .929 in four of his last five starts. In his 16 starts this year, his save percentage has been over .950 an incredible eight times and he’s been under .900 just three times. By contrast, Hiller has been under .900 11 times in 19 starts and under .800 twice. The Canucks were listless last night too, which is rare for this guest. Vancouver figures to respond tonight with much more energy. The Canucks are also an outstanding 5-1-2 in the second game of back-to-backs. Everything sets up right for the Canucks to snap a three-game losing streak, including being on the road, where they have three wins in their last four games. Big overlay.
Philadelphia +106 over MONTREAL
OT included. Things are going from bad to worse for the Canadiens and now they’ll return home to face more than the opposition. The coaches and players have to face the fans and the Montreal media. The Montreal Canadiens are not just another hockey team. Hockey in Montreal is a way of life. It’s a culture. Losing is not an option and it is absolutely not acceptable. There would be riots in the streets of Montreal if the Canadiens were on a 50-year drought like the Maple Leafs are or if they missed the playoffs as much as the Leafs have over the past two decades.
This is a short film (about 10 minutes) by the Canadian National Film Board that was played in schools in the 60’s and 70’s that is worth watch regarding the Canadiens and Leafs: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZZyDsF-Gp3o
The point is that the Canadiens are dealing with a lot more than their performance on the ice. They are under immense pressure right now and their Coach, Michel Therrien is in complete panic mode. Therrien benched P.K. Subban in the last game after the Canadiens fell behind 3-2 with three minutes left. Therrien not only benched him for the balance of the game, but irritably laid the blame squarely on him in his post-game remarks.
“An individual mistake cost us the game,” said Therrien.
“I thought he could have made a better decision at the blue line and put the puck behind …
“We play as a team, and unfortunately at the end of the game, when we don’t play as a team we could be in trouble, and this is what happens.”
It’s not like the Canadiens are playing poorly. It’s more about a team that is playing not to lose and is finding ways to lose. The goaltending situation is at a breaking point too. Ben Scrivens is a horrible option and Mike Condon’s fragile psyche and shot confidence makes him a horrible option too. Additionally, Montreal returns home from a three-game losing streak in three different time zones (Buffalo, Arizona, Colorado) and now they’ll play in their fourth different time zone in four straight. Lack of energy from said trip, distractions, media, fans, pressure, a panicked coach and losing has taken a big toll on this outfit and if they beat us here, so be it.
Philadelphia will come into this one under very little pressure and smelling a wounded prey. The Flyers are coming off a six-goal outburst in New Jersey against Cory Schneider. The Flyers are right in the thick of the Wild Card race but it’s not a big deal if they miss the post-season, as there are a ton of bright prospects waiting in the wings so the future is bright. That doesn’t mean the Flyers aren’t dangerous because they are. The Flyers have picked up points in 14 of their past 20 games. When they go to OT or a shootout, they have a great shot of winning because of the offensive weapons they possess. Philadelphia has played Montreal twice this year and has won both times by scores of 4-2 and 4-3. They outshot Montreal both times also, 36-32 and 31-24. This time around, Philly has more confidence, a huge edge in goal and they catch the Canadiens as fragile as they have ever been.
CAROLINA +115 over San Jose
OT included. The Sharks are rock solid. They are playing a different style of hockey this year than we’ve been accustomed to seeing from this outfit for years. Under Peter DeBoer’s structured system, the Sharks are thriving. They are a definite threat to make a deep run in this year’s playoffs and they appear to be getting stronger, not weaker. The Sharks have the NHL’s best road record. They have won 13 of their last 19 games and picked up one point in three other games over that span. That’s 29 out of a possible 38 points for the Sharkies over their past 19 games. However, situational betting is a key criterion we use frequently and this is one of those extremely difficult spots that the Sharks find themselves in. We’re not fading the Sharks, we’re fading the situation they are in.
San Jose won in Florida last night in a shootout. They had one shot on net in the third period and just 15 for the entire game. They were weakening after playing in Tampa on Tuesday in a hard fought victory. The Sharkies haven been traveling extensively lately with this being their seventh road game in their last nine games overall that started on February 2. Over this current 17-day span, San Jose has played in Anaheim, St. Louis, Chicago, Nashville, Tampa Bay, Florida and Carolina tonight. They’re not done either. After this one, the Sharks have important games in St. Louis and Colorado beginning on Monday. They’ll get the weekend off before that game in St. Louis on Monday. The Sharks looked exhausted last night and they are not likely to muster up any more energy here. On Monday, St. Louis will get the Sharks’ best shot but before that, the Sharks will get the ‘Canes best shot and they’ll very likely do so with backup Alex Stalock in net. We're suggesting that San Jose will take a breather here and the relentless 'Canes will be the beneficiaries.
SPORTS WAGERS
VALPARAISO -8½ -106 over Oakland
We suspect much of the market’s love for Oakland is versed on the premise that Oakland recently traveled to Wright State and handled the pest that has been a thorn in the side of Valparaiso. However, Wright State and Valparaiso match-up entirely differently than Oakland and Wright State or Oakland and Valparaiso. How is that? Valparaiso and Oakland are a true match-up of offense versus defense.
Oakland is the proud owner of the nation’s best scoring offense, accumulating an astounding 87.2 points per game. The Golden Grizzlies are also golden from behind the three-point line and the candy-stripe, hitting 39.6% of three-point attempts and 77.9% of all free throws. We won’t hesitate to revel in the offensive powerhouse the Golden Grizzlies have become, however we can take or leave Oakland’s defensive accolades. The Golden Grizzlies rank among the worst in opponent points per game. This is a basketball team that must rely on hot shooters or else they’ll get buried. The bad news for Oakland is that they are going up against one of the best in the country in shutting down opponents.
The Crusaders are ruthless in their defense. They rank second in the country in opponents points per game (58.9) and opposing field goal percentage (37.1). This squad also is not too shabby in defending the three (32.3%). Why is Valparaiso the consensus favorite to win the Horizon League and earn that trip to the big dance in March? It’s because defense is what they pride themselves on. While two of Valpo’s losses on the year were sustained at the hands of pesky Wright State, we did highlight the fact that Wright State played a similar style of basketball and Valpo by no means is a team that is concerned about scoring or shooting like they are in disallowing anyone to score or shoot against them. The Crusaders are a dangerous team, as they have wins over Belmont, Oregon State, Rhode Island and this very Oakland team in January. Valpo went to work on Oakland on their own floor, housing this team 84-67. Valpo's Victor Nickerson, a 6’8” defensive specialist, was able to play only 6 minutes in the first meeting, when Oakland’s Kay Felder shot 8-for-28. Holding Felder in check without much help from Nickerson bodes very well for the change in floors and more minutes for Nickerson, who is expected to return tonight after not making the trip to Cleveland State. Valparaiso has lost only once this year on its home floor. When a great offense meets a great defense, the defense almost always prevails. With Oakland’s defense playing a supporting role to the offense, this one has the potential of getting ugly quick. The points may look appealing but we’re suggesting they are fool’s gold.
DAVE PRICE
Heat/Hawks Under 197.5
When looking at recent meetings between the Heat and Hawks, it's easy to see that oddsmakers have inflated this total tonight. These teams have combined for 192 or fewer points in five straight meetings as the UNDER has gone 5-0 in them. The Heat rank 29th in the NBA in pace this season but a solid 6th in defensive efficiency, which has led to a league-best 34-18 UNDER record. Miami is 21-3 to the UNDER off a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons. Both Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside are expected to miss tonight's game for the Heat.
Harry Bondi
PRINCETON (-3) over Yale
Two of the hottest and best teams in the Ivy League square off tonight in an important league game and we'll side with the home team playing with revenge. Yale shot lights out three weeks ago and outlasted the Tigers, 79-75, at home, but we'll call for a reversal of fortune for the Bulldogs tonight since Princeton is 14-1 straight up and 13-3 ATS as a home favorite in this series. Head coach Mitch Henderson has been a great bet when he has time to prepare, going 12-4 ATS the last three years when his team has rest of five or more days. Lay the trey with the home team.
Wunderdog
Detroit @ Washington
Pick: Detroit +2
Detroit traded for Tobias Harris as it makes a run for a playoff spot and also looks to avenge a 97-95 loss to Washington on Nov. 21. The Wizards have been inconsistent all season and have alternated their last six games with the latest being a 103-89 win over Utah last night. Marcin Gortat scored 22 points and Bradley Beal and Nene added 16 points apiece as the Wizards shot 48.8 percent from the field. The Pistons are on a three-game losing streak but were off last night and Detroit has covered six of their last seven meetings in Washington.
Scott Delaney
My free play is out of the Ivy League, as I play the Pennsylvania Quakers laying the chalk against the Brown Bears. Neither team has had a successful campaign up to now, but the fact is Penn is much better on its own court, than Brown is when playing on the road.
The Quakers, 9-12 on the season, are a respectable 7-4 on their own court. Brown, on the other hand, is 7-15 overall, but 1-9 on the highway.
The Red and Blue have won three of its last four games in Ivy League play, while it is sitting alone in fourth place entering the second half of the Ivy League slate.
This begins a four-game homestand, and nothing like starting things off with a win and momentum that's already been generated by a win streak.
Lay the home chalk.
3* PENNSYLVANIA