SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Dallas (33-21, 22-32 ATS) at Orlando (37-18, 28-26-1 ATS)
The Mavericks continue their frantic stretch of four games in five nights with a stop at Amway Arena in Orlando for a matchup with the red-hot Magic.
Dallas followed up the All-Star break with a trip to Oklahoma City on Tuesday and fell 99-86 as a 4½-point underdog, but it bounced back and beat Phoenix 107-97at home as a four-point favorite on Wednesday. Now the Mavericks are in Orlando and then return home for a matchup with the Heat on Saturday. Dallas is 17-12 (16-13 ATS) on the road this season, but even though they held the high-scoring Suns to double digits on Wednesday, they’ve had trouble stopping teams, allowing 111.4 points per game over their last five on 50.4 percent shooting.
Orlando has won 11 of its last 14 (8-6 ATS) and crushed Detroit 116-91 on Wednesday, easily cashing as an 11-point home chalk. Dwight Howard was unstoppable with 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocked shots. The Magic have increased their productivity lately, averaging 109.6 ppg over their last five, eight more than their season average.
This is the first meeting between these two this season, but Dallas has won five of the last six (3-3 ATS) and seven of the last nine overall (3-6 ATS). Last season, the Mavericks went to Orlando and scored a 105-95 upset last season as 7½-point underdogs and have won and covered in Amway Arena each of the last three seasons. The road team and underdog are a perfect 5-0 ATS in each of the last five matchups.
Even though it easily cashed against Phoenix two nights ago, Dallas has been a disaster at the betting window of late, as it is currently on ATS slides of 7-19 overall, 5-16 after getting a day off, 1-4 on the road, 0-4 as an underdog, 0-11 after a spread-cover and 1-6 against Southeast Division foes. Conversely, Orlando has covered in five of seven as a chalk and four straight after a day off, but from there the Magic are on ATS skids of 5-11 after a spread-cover, 2-5 on Friday and 1-6 against Southwest Division teams.
The Mavericks are on several “over” runs, including 14-6 as road ‘dogs, 13-5 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 on Fridays and 4-0 following a straight-up win. On the opposite end, the Magic are on “under” streaks of 14-6 overall, 39-18 after a day off, 10-1 on Fridays, 12-4 as favorites and 4-1 against the Western Conference.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in eight of the last nine clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Atlanta (34-18, 33-19 ATS) at Phoenix (32-23, 29-26 ATS)
The Hawks continue their West Coast road trip with a stop at US Airways Center in Phoenix for a matchup with the Suns.
Atlanta began its four-game jaunt with a 110-92 win in Los Angeles on Wednesday, cashing as a seven-point favorite against the Clippers. All-Star Al Horford had a stellar performance, going 12-of-15 from the field for 31 points and six rebounds. Even with the win in L.A., the Hawks are only 13-12 on the road this season, but have cashed in 15 of those 25 contests.
Phoenix was in Dallas on Wednesday, losing 107-97 to the Mavericks as a four-point underdog, with Amare Stoudemire putting up 30 points and grabbing 14 rebounds in the losing effort. The 97 points snapped a 13-game streak in which the Suns had reached triple digits and was just the second time they fell short of the century mark in 27 contests. At home, Phoenix puts up 112.7 ppg and shoots 49.6 percent from the floor.
These two met on Jan. 15 in Atlanta with the Hawks pulling out a 102-101 victory, but falling short as 5½-point favorites. The road team has cashed in five of the last seven, and the underdog has grabbed the cash in four of the last five overall.
The Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 as a road ‘dog of up to 4 ½-points, but they are on ATS runs of 21-10-1 against Western Conference teams, 8-2 after getting a day off and 4-1 on Fridays. The Suns are on ATS slides of 1-4 at home, 2-6 against the Eastern Conference and 3-7 as favorites, but they have cashed in 11 of 15 on Fridays and six of eight overall.
For Atlanta, the “under” is 14-6-1 in its last 21 as a ‘dog and 10-2-1 after a straight-up win, but the “over” has been the play in three of five on the road and five of six against Pacific Division teams. Phoenix is on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 6-0 overall, 13-4 against Southeast Division teams, 12-4-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 6-2 as a home favorite, 4-0 on Fridays and 5-2 as a favorite.
Finally, the “under” is 4-1 in the last five meetings between these two, but the “over” has cashed in five of the last six played in the desert.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Boston (34-18, 20-31-1 ATS) at Portland (32-24, 30-25-1 ATS)
One night after pulling off an 87-86 upset win over the rival Lakers, the Celtics return to the court for a matchup against the Trail Blazers inside the Rose Garden.
Boston went to Los Angeles on Thursday night and eked out a one-point win as a 2½-point underdog, with Ray Allen leading the charge with 24 points. The Celtics are three games into their five-game Western Conference road trip, but they’re still on slides of 3-11-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall, and 3-7 ATS on the second night of a back-to-back this season.
Portland has been off since Tuesday when it beat the Clippers 109-87, cashing as a 7½-point favorite. Martell Webster put up 28 points to lead the Blazers, and All-Star guard Brandon Roy had just four points in 15 minutes of action as he eases his way back into the lineup after missing 15 consecutive games with a strained hamstring.
The Celtics have dominated this series, winning eight of the last nine and cashing in eight of the last 10. Back on Jan. 22 in Boston, the Celtics prevailed 98-95 in overtime, but came nowhere near covering the 10½-point spread as the road team improved to 13-6 ATS in the last 19 series clashes. Last season in Portland, the Blazers got their first win over the Celtics since 2004 with a 91-86 upset as a 6½-point home pup.
Boston is on ATS slides of 2-9-1 against Western Conference teams, 0-4 on Fridays and 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home against teams with winning road marks, but it is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 Friday games and 4-0 in its last four against Eastern Conference teams.
The Celtics have topped the total in six of nine against teams with a winning record and four straight against Northwest Division squads, but stayed “under” the number in five straight overall and five straight against Western Conference teams. The Blazers have stayed below the posted number in four of five at home, but gone “over” the number in six of seven on Fridays and five of seven against teams with a winning record.
In this series, the “over” has been the play in six of the last nine overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BOSTON
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
Old Dominion (21-7, 10-14 ATS) at Northern Iowa (23-3, 16-9 ATS)
Bracket Buster weekend tips off with an intriguing battle at the McLeod Center in Cedar Falls, Iowa, where the Panthers host Old Dominion in a matchup of two of the nation’s top defensive squads.
The Monarchs carry a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) into this contest, having knocked off Towson 78-67 on Tuesday, falling way short as a 23-point home favorite. Old Dominion is tied with Northeastern atop the Colonial Athletic Association standings at 13-3, and it is 17-4 in its last 21 contests, a surge that began with a stunning 61-57 victory at then-No. 11 Georgetown as a nine-point underdog.
Playing without 7-foot center Jordan Eglseder, who is serving a three-game team-imposed suspension, Northern Iowa had little trouble with Creighton on Tuesday, cruising 70-52 as an 8½-point home favorite. At 14-2 in conference play, the Panthers hold a three-game lead in the Horizon League standings. They’re also 9-1 in non-conference action this season (6-3 ATS in lined games).
Despite their victory at Georgetown back in December, the Monarchs are just 7-7 SU and 5-8 ATS away from home this year, where they average 64 points per game but give up just 59.1 ppg. Meanwhile, Northern Iowa is a perfect 12-0 at the McLeod Center (8-4 ATS), outscoring visitors by 12.5 ppg (65.6-53.1).
Both teams thrive on defense, as the Panthers are second in the nation in allowing 55.1 ppg, one spot ahead of Old Dominion, which surrenders 55.8 ppg.
Old Dominion faced Liberty in a Bracket Buster game last year and rolled 80-56 as a nine-point home chalk, improving to 4-0 Bracket Buster contests the last four years (3-1 ATS). Northern Iowa has lost three straight Bracket Busters, including last year’s 81-75 setback at Siena. However, the Panthers cashed as a seven-point road underdog against Siena, ending an 0-3 ATS slide in this made-for-TV event.
Other than their recent success in Bracket Buster contests, the Monarchs are in ATS slumps of 2-6 in non-conference play, 1-4 on Friday, 1-5 after a SU win and 2-6 against winning teams. The Panthers are on pointspread surges of 14-6 overall, 8-3 at home, 4-0 in non-league outings and 21-8 versus winning teams, but they’ve failed to cover in four of their last five after both a SU and ATS win.
These defensive-minded squads are both on a series of low-scoring streaks. For Old Dominion, the “under” is on runs of 21-9 overall, 19-7 on the road, 4-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 on Friday, 16-6 after a SU win and 5-1 after a non-cover. Northern Iowa carries “under” trends of 19-7 overall, 6-0 at home, 4-1 in non-conference action, 8-2 on Friday, 21-8 after a SU win and 6-1 following a spread-cover.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Marc Lawrence
Cornell at Harvard
Play: Harvard
When Harvard hosts Cornell in a key Ivy League showdown at Lavietes Pavilion Friday night they will do so knowing the Crimson is 10-5-1 ATS in this series as a dog of favorite of less than three points. They are also 8-3 ATS at home when seeking revenge from a 20-point same season loss, including 4-0 ATS when off a win. With Harvard red-faced from a 36-point walloping they suffered at Cornell on January 30, look for the Crimson to get their revenge here tonight.
MTi Sports
Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Bobcats
The Cavaliers are 0-10 ATS (-8.7 ppg) on the road after a loss in which they shot at least 50% from the field and 0-5 ATS (-8.0 ppg) as a favorite when seeking revenge for a home loss in which they had no rest. The Bobcats are 5-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since November 16, 2004 as a dog with two or more days of rest after a home loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 9-1-2 ATS (8.6 ppg) in franchise history with at least a day of rest after a loss at home in which Gerald Wallace had a double-double. Grab the points.
Play on: Charlotte
Frank Jordan
Dallas Mavericks vs. Orlando Magic
Play: Dallas Mavericks +6
Dallas' lead is down to just one over San Antonio as they 17-12 on the road Mavericks head to Orlando. The Magic are in first place, are 21-5 and have won 8-2 in their last 10. Orlando is just 11-7 against the West while Dallas is 14-5 against the East. Look for Dirk and Dallas to be too much for the Magic to handle even at home as the the Mavericks shoot their way to the win.
David Chan
San Antonio Spurs @ Philadelphia 76ers
PICK: San Antonio Spurs -3.
The Spurs have absolutely brutalized the bottom half of the league, going 22-3 SU. They’re giving up very few points here to a team that has staggered to a 9-17 SU home record. And what’s worse than going 9-17 SU? How about a 7-19 home mark ATS? That’s the Sixers.
Philly pulled off a minor deal before the trade deadline but it will not affect this game. Newcomer Jodie Meeks won’t make an immediate impact, and Francisco Elson is out with a hernia. AI likely starts Friday after a miserable 26 minutes off the bench on Tuesday, but it matters little. His defense is poor and he can’t create his own shot.
The Spurs were unable to dump Richard Jefferson and the $15 million he’s owed next year, but the pieces seem to be working well enough as-is: the Spurs are 4-2 SU on this road trip so far (it obviously straddled the Break), including a 19-point win at Denver. Philly can’t compete.
Jim Feist
San Antonio Spurs vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Under 192½
It's not your imagination: The veteran Spurs have been turning up the defense of late, getting primed for the postseason as they always do. San Antonio is on a 6-1 run under the total. They take on a Philadelphia team that prefers a slower pace, one on a 12-5 run under the total. The 76ers are not premier offensive team, shooting 45 from the field -- 19th in the NBA. These teams have already met and the Spurs won 97-89 in a game that sailed 10 points under the total. Don't look for a lot of offense, play the Spurs/76ers Under the total.
EZWINNERS
Orlando Magic -6
The Mavericks made a nice trade to help solidify their team but this new group of players for Dallas is going to need some time to gel, especially when they are playing on the road. Orlando laid a beat down on the Pistons in their last game. The Magic are tagged as a finesse, three point shooting team, but they showed signs that they can play a more physical game and I expect them to do so against a soft Dallas team. The Mavericks have not had a lot of success against Orlando in the past as they are only 3-7 against the spread in the last ten meetings between these two teams and this is the third game in four nights for Dallas. Lay the points.
Golden Contender
Denver at Washington
Pick: Over
The Nuggets were all out last night in taking out the Cavs and ending their 13 game win streak. They were able to get past Cleveland on a late bucket in over time from Carmelo Anthony. Now they travel to Washington to face the Wizards. Denver has gone over all 5 times this year on the road off a road game with no rest. In the series between these 2 teams 11 of the last 12 have played over. This game tonight looks to be another offensive minded game. The Nuggets have gone over the total in 24 of 35 games the past few years in the second half when up against losing team and have played to the over 5 of 7 times vs the Southeast Division. Look for a high scoring game here tonight.
Matt Fargo
3* Philadelphia 76ers
Philadelphia did not get off to the second half start it hoped to as it was pounded at home against Miami on Tuesday by 27 points. That snapped a modest two-game home winning streak and while that streak seems meaningless, it was actually the first time all season that the Sixers had won two straight games at home this season, whether they were back-to-back or staggered with road games in-between, as was the case with that latest string. This is the eighth time this entire season that the Sixers have played back-to-back games at home with the first game resulting in a loss. They went 4-3 in those seven previous games including a win in the last instance against Dallas which followed a home loss against Portland two days prior. Philadelphia did have a five-game winning streak, easily the biggest of the season, before losing at Toronto right before the All-Star break and it is in need of getting that run going again. This is the final game before a four-game roadtrip so this one is definitely one that the Sixers both need and want before hitting the road. It may seem farfetched, but they are still thinking playoffs despite being 6.5 games back of the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. “Anything can happen,” Philadelphia head coach Eddie Jordan said. “Is 21-8 realistic? We have to really catch fire and carry momentum through. I'm not going to count anything out.” San Antonio won its first game after the break, a three point win at Indiana and the season-long roadtrip continues. This is the seventh straight road game for the Spurs and the second to last in this current annual trek that sends them packing due to the rodeo being in town. They are 4-2 through the first six games to move to a game over .500 on the road for the season but they are 2-4 against the number and that includes a 1-3 ATS mark as a road chalk and they are currently on a 1-5 ATS run in that spot. That embarrassing loss against Miami is something that the Sixers will rally around as getting pride back at home is huge. The loss also puts the Sixers into a great bounce back situation. Play on home teams that are coming off a loss by 15 points or more as a favorite and playing with two days rest. This situation is 26-5 ATS (83.9 percent) over the last five seasons with the average point differential being +10.1 ppg. Also, Philadelphia is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games as a home underdog of fewer than five points while the Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite of fewer than five points. The Sixers have done well in this series with covers in 15 of the last 18 meetings including all of the last five where the home team has won outright. 3* Philadelphia 76ers
Nelly
New Orleans - over Indiana
New Orleans appears to be proving how valuable Chris Paul is with a recent free fall in the standings including losses in five of the last six home games. Those numbers create a short line on the Hornets at home tonight but consider that five of the six home games came against playoff calibers teams and the Suns do have a few impressive recent wins, beating Boston at home just before the break as well as posting road wins at Charlotte, at Memphis, and at Portland in the last month. The Hornets still own a 17-9 S/U home record and they face tonight a Pacers team that has just six wins away from home all season. The Pacers played close with the Spurs at home in the first game of the second half but Indiana has lost by double-digits in the last two road games. Four point home favorites have been incredibly profitable in the NBA this season at 20-9 ATS and this looks like a great spot for the Hornets to play well. In road games Indiana is allowing 107 points per game this season and the Hornets need to get off to a strong second half start to stay in the mix.
DUNKEL
Milwaukee at Detroit
The Bucks look to bounce back from their 127-99 loss to Houston and build on their 7-0 ATS record in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Milwaukee is the pick (Pick) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee.(-8 1/2)
Game 801-802: Denver at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 119.764; Washington 116.256
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 205
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 6; 209
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+6); Under
Game 803-804: Cleveland at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.342; Charlotte 121.723
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+5); Over
Game 805-806: San Antonio at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.520; Philadelphia 118.741
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 195
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 192 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Over
Game 807-808: Milwaukee at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 120.465; Detroit 112.067
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 8 1/2; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Pick; 189
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee; Under
Game 809-810: Dallas at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 115.364; Orlando 125.737
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 6 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-6 1/2); Over
Game 811-812: Indiana at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 116.045; New Orleans 116.086
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 202
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 4; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+4); Under
Game 813-814: Chicago at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 118.170; Minnesota 113.870
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 1 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-1 1/2); Over
Game 815-816: Toronto at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 119.403; New Jersey 109.240
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 10; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 3 1/2; 198 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-3 1/2); Under
Game 817-818: Miami at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 116.022; Memphis 120.509
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 4 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+6); Over
Game 819-820: Atlanta at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 116.999; Phoenix 126.354
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 3 1/2; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-3 1/2); Under
Game 821-822: Utah at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 126.332; Golden State 114.489
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 12; 227
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 6; 219
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-6); Over
Game 823-824: Boston at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 116.215; Portland 123.331
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 7 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 2; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-2); Under
NCAAB
Old Dominion at Northern Iowa
The Panthers look to take advantage of an ODU team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as a road underdog between 1 and 6 1/2 points. Northern Iowa is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 6. Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-3)
Game 825-826: Yale at Princeton
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 45.504; Princeton 59.825
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 14 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-11 1/2)
Game 827-828: Columbia at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Columbia 44.058; Dartmouth 41.727
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 1
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-1)
Game 829-830: Brown at Pennsylvania
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 43.053; Pennsylvania 44.287
Dunkel Line: Pennsylvania by 1
Vegas Line: Pennsylvania by 5
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+5)
Game 831-832: Cornell at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Cornell 67.333; Harvard 59.937
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Cornell by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cornell (-2 1/2)
Game 833-834: Old Dominion at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 63.706; Northern Iowa 69.556
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 6
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 3
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-3)
Game 835-836: William & Mary at Iona
Dunkel Ratings: William & Mary 56.531; Iona 62.114
Dunkel Line: Iona by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-3 1/2)
Game 517-518: Portland at Pepperdine
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 65.351; Pepperdine 47.852
Dunkel Line: Portland by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 10
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-10)
Rocketman
Milwaukee @ Detroit
Play: Detroit +1
Detroit is 24-8 SU at home vs Milwaukee since 1996 including 4-1 SU and ATS at home vs the Bucks the past 3 years. Detroit is 8-3 SU and ATS overall vs Milwaukee the past 3 years. Pistons are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Bucks are 3-9 ATS in the last 12 meetings. Bucks are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Detroit. We'll recommend a small play on Detroit tonight!
VEGAS EXPERTS
Utah Jazz at Golden State Warriors
Perhaps the scoreboard operator should be paid double time here considering the way the Warriors play defense and the way Utah has been scoring lately. Golden State has given up an average of better than 111 points per game this year while Utah is averaging about the same over its previous 13 contests. GSW is also 10-1 Over when coming off a win by 15 points or more and playing at home.
Play on: Over
Terron Chapman
Brown vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Brown +4.5
The Penn Quakers (4-17) have won the last three in this series but the last victory was awash in controversy. The Quakers’ Dan Monckton grabbed the ball after his teammate’s desperate three-pointer fell short, and laid it in as the buzzer sounded to give the Bears (8-17) a crushing defeat, 55-54. It was unclear whether the basket was made before the clock hit zero. But the shot was ultimately called good, sending the Quakers’ bench into a frenzy as the Bears’ coaching staff and players looked on in disbelief. Though Ivy League rules allow video review, the referees could not utilize video technology to replay the last second of the game because the matchup was not televised. The Bears will look for payback this evening when the two meet at the Palestra in the rematch. The Bears have had almost a week to prepare for the rematch and I expect them to come out motivated as they look avenge that 1-point loss. The Quakers have seen chalk listed next to their names just twice this season and they failed to live up to expectations on both occasions. Look for an inspired effort from the Bears to keep this one closer than the marketplace suggest. Play on the Brown Bears for 1 unit.
Tony George
Old Dominion vs. Northern Iowa
Play: Northern Iowa -3
I cover the MO Valley with 2 to 3 plays a week along with the Big 12, my specialty conferences. ODU stepping up in class big time in this Bracket Buster game, and Northern Iowa off a waxing of Creighton, 12-0 at home and they allow just 53 ppg at home on the season. ONE KEY in this game is the inability to ODU to knock down free throws, a HORRIFIC 51% their last 5 games from the charity stripe, that can and will be a facotr in a tight game, but I like the Panthers to prevail here tonight on a strong homecourt where they shoot the 3-ball extremely well.