Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on New Orleans Hornets -3.5
The Pacers have lost 19 of 23 on the road and I'll fade them on the road again tonight against a Hornets team that is playing pretty well without Chris Paul. I expect a big game from David West tonight, who is coming off a season-low 5-point effort. The Pacers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points so that doesn't inspire much confidence in them here. Plus, the Hornets have proven to be a solid bounce back team at 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss. The Hornets won in Indiana last month so the Pacers will be out for revenge. But plays against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) revenging a straight up loss vs. an opponent as a favorite, off a cover where they lost the game straight up as an underdog, are 73-38 ATS since 1996. We'll play by the numbers here.
Dave Price
1 Unit on N. Iowa Panthers -3
The Panthers will be without Jordan Eglseder tonight, but that shouldn't matter with as strong as this team is on its home floor. UNI is a perfect 12-0 at home this season and 8-4 ATS in those games. The good thing about the Panthers is that they raise their level of play against the best competition. In fact, UNI is 6-0 ATS when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 80%) this season, winning these games by an average score of 66.7 to 53.5. Home court will be the difference tonight.
Jack Jones
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Charlotte Bobcats
Play: Charlotte Bobcats +4½
Cleveland lost an intense game in OT last night to Denver and now they have to travel to Charlotte to take on a Hornets team that will be looking to rebound from a loss to the New Jersey Nets. The Bobcats know that they can compete with the Cavs as they have won their last two games against them, including in Cleveland a month and a half ago. Take the points here in what should be a low scoring defensive battle.
Great system here backing our play that says to take home teams off a home loss, extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days. 49-19 (72%) over the last 5 seasons.
LT Profits
Old Dominions vs Northern Iowa
The first Bracket Buster game of the season is an interesting one between two defensive-minded clubs, when the Northern Iowa Panthers out of the Missouri Valley Conference host the Old Dominion Monarchs out of the Colonial Conference Friday night.
As good as these defenses are, this low posted total seems to be giving no respect to the offenses and seems severely deflated to us. Sure, the Under is 15-8 on all Old Dominion games this season and 17-5 in all Northern Iowa games, buy by the same token, most of those games did not have totals posted this low either.
Northern Iowa is averaging 63.9 points per game overall, but that figure rises to 65.6 points here at home. Sure, their stiff defense is only allowing 53.1 points per home contest, but that combined average of 118.7 points is still about six points higher than this posted total. We also feel that this will be a closer game than they are accustomed to when facing MVC opponents, and if this turns into a foul-fest late, the Panthers shoot a very good 72.7 percent from the line.
Now Old Dominion is averaging 64.0 points per game on the road while allowing only 59.1, but again, that combined average of 123.1 points is considerably higher than this total. These conferences are very comparable according to the Pomeroy Ratings, with the Missouri Valley ranking number 10 with a rating of .6478 and the Colonial ranking 12 at .5986, so we feel that the offensive and defensive averages for both teams should translate well here.
Therefore, we expect a minimum of 118 points to be scored in this game, and while that would be hardly a shootout, it is still much higher than this grossly low total.
Pick: Old Dominions/Northern Iowa Over 112.5
THE PREZ
Cavaliers vs Bobcats
The Cleveland Cavaliers may not have their best shooting legs here tonight after losing at home 118-116 to the Denver Nuggets last night, while the Charlotte Bobcats scored just 94 points vs. the New Jersey Nets in an embarrassing loss here at home in their first game after the All-Star break Tuesday.
The Bobcats are not offensively gifted to begin with, as they have now gone six consecutive games without reaching 100 points, including one effort where they managed just 79 points in Portland. For the whole season, they rank third form the bottom in the NBA in scoring at just 95.1 points per game, while at the same time they rank second in defense, allowing only 94.3 points per contest.
Now Charlotte is a bit better offensively at home, averaging 97.9 points, but those home games are still averaging just 189.5 points combined, and they may not reach their season's average vs. an underrated Cleveland defense that is allowing 94.6 points per game overall and 95.0 points on the road.
Meanwhile, the Cavaliers do average triple-digits offensively, but the combination of fatigue after an overtime game last night and the stiff Bobcats defense should keep them in single-digits here. Also, all three head-to-head meetings between these clubs this season have gone safely Under with neither team reaching 100 points yet, and those three meetings produced 169, 181 and 179 points respectively.
Look for another Under in this season series tonight.
Pick: Cavaliers/Bobcats Under 191.5
Stephen Nover
Cleveland at CHARLOTTE (+4')
The defensive-minded, well-coached Charlotte Bobcats have matched up well to Cleveland this season, winning the past two meetings.
Charlotte defeated Cleveland, 94-87, at home in late November and then won at Cleveland, 91-88, early last month.
Now the rested Bobcats catch the Cavaliers off a home overtime loss to Denver last night. The defeat ended Cleveland's 13-game winning streak.
LeBron James was exhausted following last night's Nuggets game after playing a hard 47 minutes.
The Cavaliers were playing short-handed last night because newly-acquired Antawn Jamison wasn't in uniform. Jamison could play tonight, but it will be his first game as a Cavalier and there figures to be a transition period with his new teammates.
The Bobcats are anxious to redeem themselves after losing at home to the pathetic Nets on Tuesday. Charlotte obviously was rusty having not played for six days before then because of the All-Star break.
Expect the Bobcats, with newly-acquired Tyrus Thomas, to play with a lot of energy and defensive intensity. That should be enough to get the cover against a tired Cavaliers squad in a horrible situational spot.
2♦ BOBCATS
Derek Mancini
Miami (+6') at MEMPHIS
Minnesota unloads on Wisconsin Thursday, marking my 4th straight freebie winner (N. Iowa Tues, Miami-Florida and Purdue Wed)! Looking at the pro game Friday, and a certain dog who I expect will come to play, even without their "pack-leader."
Dwayne Wade will probably not play in this contest. Don't panic guys, that's part of the reason I'm siding with the Heat tonight, as value can be found when teams lose their superstar players to injury.
Think it's impossible for a team like the Heat to win on the road, without their best player? Sure you do, as does every other bettor on the face of the planet! Before his injury, the Heat were enjoying an solid run, winning 4 straight (3-1 ATS). For the next couple games, I expect players like Beasley and O'neal to pick up the extra slack, and cash a few tickets along the way, starting with this one.
Unlike Miami, Memphis backed into the All-Star Break, and hasn't been any better since coming back, getting crushed by Phoenix in their last home effort. Grizzlies have been profitable at the FedEx Forum, but they just aren't playing with the same defensive zeal we saw earlier this season (105 ppg, 49% shooting L5 games). Look for Miami to slow it down down, playing halfcourt basketball through Beasley and J.O. in this match up. Take the Heat plus the points Friday.
3♦ MIAMI
Chuck O'Brien
Milwaukee (-1) at DETROIT
I scored an easy comp winner Thursday with Portland over Pepperdine. For Friday, take the Bucks plus the points at Detroit in NBA action.
The Pistons have had Milwaukee’s number this year, winning and covering both meetings. But that’s the only edge Detroit has in this game. The Bucks are 5½ games ahead of Detroit in the standings and are in the mix for a playoff berth, as they enter this contest on a 6-3 roll. They’ve also cashed in 11 of their last 14 games, including six of their last seven on the road.
True, Milwaukee is coming off Wednesday’s ugly 28-point home loss to Houston, that’s not necessarily a bad thing, as it is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a SU defeat, 6-0 ATS in its last six when coming off a double-digit loss and 5-0 ATS in its last five when failing to cover in its previous game. You have to go back to Jan. 16 and 18 (at Utah and Houston) for the last time Milwaukee lost consecutive games, and you have go back to Jan. 8 and 10 (Lakers and Bulls) for the last time they failed to cover in consecutive games (a stretch of 18 contests).
The Pistons, on the other hand, are a pointspread disaster. Following Wednesday’s 25-point loss in Orlando, they’re in ATS slumps of 8-21-1 overall, 16-34-1 against Central Division rivals, 1-6-1 at home, 2-10 when coming off one day of rest, 23-49-1 when coming off a loss and 1-4 when playing on Friday.
In fact, Milwaukee has the fourth-best pointspread record in the NBA; Detroit is 23rd out of 30 teams. Give me the points!
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Bobby Maxwell
Dallas at ORLANDO (-6)
I'm red-hot with my FREE selections, going 53-22-1 with my last 76 comp plays. Tonight I have a freebie coming on the NBA hardwood as I lay the chalk with the Magic hosting the Mavericks in Orlando.
Even with new faces, the Mavericks are built for a stretch like this. They are playing Game 3 in this run of four games in five nights and they have to go to Orlando tonight only to get on a plane and get back to Dallas for a matchup with the Heat. I love the Magic in this situation as they are going to take advantage of a road-weary Dallas squad and win this by 12 to 15.
Orlando has won 11 of 14 overall (8-6 ATS) and beat the crap out of the Pistons on Wednesday, winning 116-91 as 11-point favorites. Dwight Howard looked sensational, with 33 points, 17 rebounds and seven blocks. This team is getting better as the season goes, scoring eight more points a game over the last five (109.6) as compared to what they’ve done all season (101.4).
The Mavericks are a freakin’ disaster at the betting window, currently on ATS skids of 7-19 overall, 5-16 after they get a day off, 1-4 on the road, 0-4 as underdogs and 0-11 after they actually cover a number like they did against the Suns on Wednesday.
Orlando has cashed in five of seven as a favorite and four straight after they get a day off. The Magic have gotten the cash in six of the last nine against the Mavericks and you can bank on them getting it again tonight.
New faces or not, this Dallas team is tired after essentially hosting the All-Star game and then this run of four games in five nights. Dirk Nowitzki has gotten absolutely no rest and his legs aren’t going to bet there tonight.
Lay the chalk and play the Magic.
4♦ ORLANDO
Michael Cannon
Boston at PORTLAND (-3)
I am now 81-70-4 with my last 155 free plays.
Take the Blazers as the road chalk over the Celtics.
Boston is coming off an emotionally charged, one-point win over the Lakers last night. It marks the second of back-to-backs for the Celtics and third game in four nights.
Portland has been off since Tuesday and guard Brandon Roy should be in even better shape after playing 15 minutes in the Blazers 109-87 win over the Clippers.
The Celtics are on ATS slides of 2-9-1 against the West, 0-4 on Fridays and 1-4 on the second night of a back-to-back.
The Blazers are on pointspread streaks of 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Friday games and 4-0 in their last four against the Eastern Conference.
Take the Blazers as they grab the home win and cover.
2♦ PORTLAND
Chris Jordan
William and Mary at IONA (-4)
Playing the home team tonight in this BracketBuster opener, as the Gaels have played well enough at home to give them the nod in this non-conference clash.
Iona has been mainly a defensive team this season, and what you'll notice tonight is how it won't let any one or two players explode for a huge game. The Gaels force you to pass the ball around, and force you to get everyone involved.
And I'm not sure William and Mary has the personnel to make things happen with a lot of penetration.
I do know the Tribe has threats from beyond the arc, where Iona doesn't necessarily defend all that well; but as they say: live and die by the 3.
And when the shots don't fall, you have to side with the team that spreads the wealth. The Gaels have a balanced offensive attack with eight different players scoring more than four points per game.
I'm playing the home chalk here.
1♦ IONA
Jeff Benton
My four-day free-play winning streak ended Thursday as Oregon failed to get it done against Stanford. Still, I’m on runs of 23-11, 13-5 and 10-4 with plays that I’m giving away! For Friday’s comp selection, I’ll take the points with the Bobcats at home against Cleveland.
The Cavs are in a tough spot here. First, they’re coming off last night’s brutal overtime home loss to the Nuggets, which snapped Cleveland’s 13-game winning streak. Second, the Cavs have had their hands full with Charlotte this year, failing to cover in all three meetings, two of them outright losses. What’s really telling about the three meetings is how the Cavs have really struggled against the Bobcats’ defense, scoring 90, 87 and 88 points. Then again, Charlotte has taken to the Larry Brown defensive principles, as it only gives up 94.3 ppg overall and a scant 91.6 ppg at home.
So why was I reluctant to give out the Bobcats as a premium play here? Because they’re struggling, having lost seven of their last 12 outings since a six-game winning streak, including an embarrassing 103-94 home loss to New Jersey in their first game back from the All-Star break Tuesday. However, Charlotte has had three days to prep for this one, and with Cleveland in the second night of a back-to-back (with travel involved) that obviously favors the Bobcats.
Bottom line: The Cavaliers, who are playing their first road game of the month tonight, are way overdue for a downturn. And after playing – and losing -- such a rugged game against Denver in a marquee TNT showdown on Thursday, I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Cleveland goes down again tonight against a hungry, desperate and talented Bobcats squad that A) is still 19-8 on its home court this year and B) has failed to cash in four straight games but hasn’t had five straight non-covers since December 2007 – we’re talking 194 games! Throw in the fact the Cleveland has cashed just twice in its last seven games as a small road favorite (less than 5 points), and I’m all over the home ‘dog in this one.
6♦ CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Scott Delaney
Milwaukee at Detroit
The Bucks are out to make the playoffs. The Pistons are all but out of the postseason.
Milwaukee is looking for win number four in six games, and I don't believe is going to have any trouble against the struggling Pistons, who are going through an overhaul this season.
The Bucks have covered 11 of their last 14 overall, while the Pistons are mired in ATS slides of 1-7 at home and 8-22 overall.
Take the road team in this one.
5♦ MILWAUKEE
Info Plays
3* on Pacers/Hornets OVER 205
Reasons why this game goes OVER
1.) System Play. We'll Play Over - All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 (INDIANA) - extremely well rested team - playing 3 or less games in 10 days, on Friday nights. This is a 31-5 OVER System hitting 86.1% over the last 5 seasons. This system is 1-0 this season.
2.) Neither team plays much defense, especially Indiana who allows 106.5 PPG on the road this season. The Hornets give up 101.1 PPG this season. Indiana is finally healthy with Danny Granger back in the line-up. New Orleans is without Chris Paul, but Darren Collison is averaging nearly 20 PPG in his absence. This total has been set too low tonight, and we'll take advantage. Bet the OVER.
O.C. Dooley
Mavericks / Magic UNDER 204
Regular clients cashed a “5 Unit” Best Bet ESPN ticket a few night ago as Dallas played UNDER the total and I am calling for more of the same. Dallas was one of the more active squads at the NBA trade deadline as they brought in Caron Butler as part of a seven-player deal. But one of the key players of the trade with Washington just happened to be big man Brendan Haywood who has added immediate DEFENSIVE intensity to a team that was hurting in that area. Despite having a defensive oriented head coach in Rick Carlisle the Mavericks defense was scorched in 3 ugly games prior to the All-Star break where the total amount of points allowed (127, 117, 117) was downright scary. Back on Wednesday evening in front of the ESPN cameras the Dallas defense held the league’s highest scoring contingent (Phoenix) to just 97 total points. I will admit that Orlando played above the total back on Wednesday evening on the road but in a victory against Detroit the squad played a PHYSICAL contest. Orlando has the reputation of being a three-point shooting team that is a bit “soft” down low in the paint, but that was not the case on Wednesday. That Orlando defense in the most recent 3 outings has held the opposition to 91-or-less points twice. From the database I see that Orlando long term is 18-5 UNDER after four consecutive games where the offense has put 100+ points on the scoreboard. In the past two years Dallas is 17-6 UNDER/ROAD when the posted total is between 200-and-209’ points. But the big story is that Orlando is a staggering 10-1 UNDER the past eleven times they have played on a FRIDAY