King Creole
WAS +5.5 vs DEN
This one didn't quite make it to KING CREOLE's gameday service…. But it's still worthy of a small play… or to fill out your Friday Parlay card.
With Denver's BIG road upset win in OVERTIME last night against the Cleveland Cavaliers… it's 'letdown time'.
2-10 ATS: All NBA road favorites playing with NO REST off a road OVERTIME win (Nuggets). And if these teams won that last games as an UNDERDOG (like Denver), the numbers improve to 0-4 ATS.
15-2 ATS this season: All NBA non-conference underdogs with a current W/L percentage of .400 or less and playing off a SU win (WIZARDS)… versus an opponent also off a SU win (Nuggets).
The Nuggets face a BIG-time LINE REVERSAL tonight. They go from road dogs of + 7 points (last night)… to a road FAV of -5 > points (tonight).
0-5 ATS since December: Any NBA road favorite of 5 > points playing off a road game in which they were an UNDERDOG of +6 or more points (Nuggets).
Mike Hook
MIN +1.5 vs CHI
The Wolves are in a great spot here, and i think oddsmakers know it. In fact, i KNOW oddsmakers know it. How else can you explain this wild reverse line movement that's taken place today? I knew this was potentially a paid play last night when i saw this opening line. Even better, i loved what i saw overnight, as this line kept dropping. I have no doubt in my mind that the Wolves win this game OUTRIGHT.
The Bulls have recently beaten up a few times on the Knicks. I know the Knicks aren't very good, and neither is Minnesota. But if you look closer, it's easy to see that the Wolves are playing better. They certainly can be good enough today to beat these Bulls. Keep in mind, the Bulls just traded away BOTH Tyrus Thomas and John Salmons. One must also realize that their stud rebounding centerm Joakim Noah is doubtful to play as well. If the Wolves have one thing, it's a good low post presence with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson. I think the Wolves have enough quick guards to make Derrick Rose play honest tonight.
On revenge, and on great recent situationals and trends, i think the Wolves are in a fine spot tonight to shock some people. By the time you add the WILD line movement, this play becomes damn near a no brainer. I'm backing the Wolves +1.5 tonight for 1 UNIT!
GoodFella
NOH -3.5 vs IND
Second meeting between these two clubs this season--as New Orleans won AT Indiana (101-96) as 2.5 pt dogs 5 weeks ago--however Indiana swept the season series last season--including a (103-100) win AT New Orleans. The Hornets are coming off a 8 pt home loss to the Jazz on Wednesday, as 4 pt dogs & I look for them to come back with a very strong effort on their home floor tonight. Indiana is a putrid (6-20 SU) on the ROAD this season & tonight is their 1st game of a 4 game roadie---as the Pacers are coming off a 3 pt HOME loss to the Spurs on Wednesday Night. Indiana has also lost their L/2 ROAD games by double digits--to Toronto & Milwaukee. New Orleans is a very solid (17-9 SU) at home & I like the way this team is competing and love the way Rookie Darren Collison is filling in for CP3 at the poing guard spot. Indiana is just (1-5 ATS L/6) games as a ROAD Underdog of +.5 to 4.5--and the Hornets are (7-3 ATS L/10) games following a SU loss---Bottom line for me here--I really feel the Hornets come back strong on their home floor off the home loss to the Jazz--and come away with a 6-7 pt win tonight.