DUNKEL INDEX
DUNKEL INDEX
Raphael Esparza
Finland / Sweden Over 4.5
So here is a game that has a really low total, and I'm a bit shocked because both teams will want to put the puck in the net quick. Finland scored 3 goals on Wednesday against the home country favorite Russia, and this is one of the main reasons why we like the over. Sweden threw up 5 goals against Slovenia early Wednesday morning, and I wish I can count on 5 goals from Sweden, but I see them putting pressure on the Finland goalie early and often. Some books have this game posted at 5, and I still see this gave having value at the total of 5. Should be a great semifinal game, and I can see a 4-2 game to cash this free play.
SPORTS WAGERS
USA +155 over Canada
Regulation only. We’re not concerned one bit that the Canadians struggled to defeat Latvia. The media, like they always do, blew it way out of proportion. Latvia looked like a team playing another sport out there while Canada looked like they were on a 60-minute power-play. The Canadians ran into a hot goaltender, much like the Russians did back in 1980 when a little known goaltender by the name of Jim Craig caught fire for a couple of weeks. Craig’s NHL career consisted of 30 games for three different NHL teams. Fact is, if Canada and Latvia played that game over 10 times, Canada would go 10-0 and probably outscore the Latvians by six goals each game. Wagering against the Canadians here has nothing to do with their 2-1 narrow victory over Latvia. Canada’s Olympic victories occurred against Norway, Austria, Finland in OT and Latvia. There are at least 20 guys on each one of those teams that if they were American born, they would not come close to even being considered to play for the U.S. Canada has not been tested. Its defense has been tremendous but they have not faced anything close to what the Americans bring. You can go up and down that Canadian roster and not one player can say that he’s satisfied with his performance so far. The Canadians have struggled to score goals the entire tournament, they have now lost one of its best players in John Tavaras and they have not had to deal with any pressure in their own end yet. That all changes here.
Outside of a close game against the Russians in the second game of the tournament, the Americans have toyed with the opposition by scoring 20 times in four games while allowing just six goals against. The Americans have adapted to the European rink with ease by looking like they’ve been playing on it their entire careers. The Americans have gelled together better than any other team in this event and certainly better than the Canadians. That said, only an idiot would say the Canadians have no chance here. However, in terms of value, the Americans should not be the underdog in this game because they have been the best team in the tournament and it’s not even close. At +155 in regulation, win or lose, the price here on the Americans is a big time overlay and we’re on it.