Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 21

DUNKEL INDEX
NCAAB

VCU at Massachusetts
Rams look to bounce back from their 64-62 loss to St. Louis as they travel to UMass to face a Minutemen team that is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 home game. VCU is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rams favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: VCU (+1 1/2)

Game 821-822: VCU at Massachusetts (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: VCU 67.668; Massachusetts 62.843
Dunkel Line: VCU by 5; 152
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 1 1/2; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (+1 1/2); Over

Game 823-824: Detroit at Wright State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 52.709; Wright State 60.870
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 8; 125
Vegas Line: Wright State by 5 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-5 1/2); Under

Game 825-826: Dartmouth at Princeton (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dartmouth 44.134; Princeton 60.665
Dunkel Line: Princeton by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: Princeton by 13
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (-13)

Game 827-828: Brown at Columbia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 53.070; Columbia 56.520
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Columbia by 6
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+6)

Game 829-830: Harvard at Pennsylvania (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 61.409; Pennsylvania 48.162
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 13
Vegas Line: Harvard by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-10 1/2)

Game 831-832: Yale at Cornell (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 52.745; Cornell 38.868
Dunkel Line: Yale by 14
Vegas Line: Yale by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-10 1/2)

Game 833-834: Oakland at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 51.184; Illinois-Chicago 46.706
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Oakland by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-1 1/2)

Game 835-836: Iona at Rider (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.101; Rider 52.178
Dunkel Line: Iona by 7; 165
Vegas Line: Iona by 5; 160 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Iona (-5); Over

Game 837-838: Manhattan at Siena (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 59.417; Siena 51.210
Dunkel Line: Manhattan by 8
Vegas Line: Manhattan by 5
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (-5)

Game 841-842: Mercer at Florida Gulf Coast (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 59.898; Florida Gulf Coast 56.418
Dunkel Line: Mercer by 3 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Mercer by 1; 139
Dunkel Pick: Mercer (-1); Under

Big Kat Sports

Canada vs USA
Pick: USA

We'll go with the team that has played the best so far here in the Olympic Tournament. Canada has played well but has yet to break out even with their roster full of superstars. We can't see that happening against Jonathan Quick and an American squad that has played very well defensively thus far. Canada has been excellent on the PP here in the tourney, getting scoring from both Shea Weber and Drew Doughty on the blue line. The key to the Americans advancing to the gold medal game will be staying out of the box and playing a disciplined hockey game. We think that will happen so we'll take the team who is playing better up front and has the better goalie at a pick price here in the Olympic Semi-Finals.

SPORTS WAGERS

USA +155 over Canada

Regulation only. We’re not concerned one bit that the Canadians struggled to defeat Latvia. The media, like they always do, blew it way out of proportion. Latvia looked like a team playing another sport out there while Canada looked like they were on a 60-minute power-play. The Canadians ran into a hot goaltender, much like the Russians did back in 1980 when a little known goaltender by the name of Jim Craig caught fire for a couple of weeks. Craig’s NHL career consisted of 30 games for three different NHL teams. Fact is, if Canada and Latvia played that game over 10 times, Canada would go 10-0 and probably outscore the Latvians by six goals each game. Wagering against the Canadians here has nothing to do with their 2-1 narrow victory over Latvia. Canada’s Olympic victories occurred against Norway, Austria, Finland in OT and Latvia. There are at least 20 guys on each one of those teams that if they were American born, they would not come close to even being considered to play for the U.S. Canada has not been tested. Its defense has been tremendous but they have not faced anything close to what the Americans bring. You can go up and down that Canadian roster and not one player can say that he’s satisfied with his performance so far. The Canadians have struggled to score goals the entire tournament, they have now lost one of its best players in John Tavaras and they have not had to deal with any pressure in their own end yet. That all changes here.

Outside of a close game against the Russians in the second game of the tournament, the Americans have toyed with the opposition by scoring 20 times in four games while allowing just six goals against. The Americans have adapted to the European rink with ease by looking like they’ve been playing on it their entire careers. The Americans have gelled together better than any other team in this event and certainly better than the Canadians. That said, only an idiot would say the Canadians have no chance here. However, in terms of value, the Americans should not be the underdog in this game because they have been the best team in the tournament and it’s not even close. At +155 in regulation, win or lose, the price here on the Americans is a big time overlay and we’re on it.

Pass NBA & CBB

Will Rogers

Dallas vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Over

Here are my keys to the game

1. Sixers Defense - You won't find a worse defensive team in the league than Philadelphia and it isn't even close. They allow 110.5 pts/game. There are only four other teams that allow more than 103. Only one allows more than 105. Since January 17th, there's been one game where they didn't allow the opponent to score 100 points. That was against a bad Boston team. They are allowing 115.4 pts/game the last five games.

2. Rested Mavs - Dallas has had two days to recoup from its loss to Miami (where they allowed Miami to shoot 57% and score 117 points). That's good news for us as the Mavericks are 7-2 Over this season following two days rest.

3. X-Factor - One of Philadelphia's lowest scoring games of the season came the first time they met Dallas, a 97-94 loss. I can't see that repeating itself. The Sixers shot only 38% that game. Dallas averages nearly 104 pts/game.

Jesse Schule

New Orleans vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte

The Bobcats will host New Orleans tonight, and with a win they can move to .500 at home this season. The Pelicans though are seven games under .500 on the road, and they are coming off a home loss to the Knicks on Wednesday.

Charlotte has won back to back games against the Pistons coming out of the All Star break, and they've looked impressive winning six of their last nine overall. Al Jefferson has been on fire during that span, scoring 30+ in six of those nine games.

The Bobcats appear to have a realistic shot at making the playoffs for just the second time in franchise history, as they currently hold the eighth spot in the East, 2.5 games up on the Pistons.

The Pelicans have failed to cover in four straight road games, while Charlotte has won and covered in each of it's last four versus teams with a losing record. New Orleans is still without three top players in Jrue Holliday, Josh Smith and Ryan Anderson. This is a tough spot for a New Orleans team that doesn't have any hope of reaching the post-season.

Bryan Power

San Antonio vs. Phoenix
Pick: Under

In addition to cashing a premium *10* selection on Under Heat/Thunder, "The Real Deal" Bryan Power also nailed another Under as a free play with Nuggets/Bucks! Here's another game he feels will stay Under the total....

Phoenix has allowed an average 107 points its last five games. This is roughly six points per game above their season average. However, last time out they snapped a five-game streak of allowing 100+ points in a 100-94 win over Boston. They have actually gone Under in three straight in regulation as Tuesday's game vs. Denver (112-107 win) went to OT.

San Antonio has gone Over in five straight and is 7-1 Over so far on this road trip, of which this is the final game. Tip your cap to this team as they just got done beating the Clippers and Portland on back to back nights. But I question, short-handed as they are (no Tony Parker), how much they'll have left in the tank here. Defensively, they've been worse too over their last five games. Look for both teams to settle down on that end of the floor tonight.

Scott Spreitzer

Virginia Commonwealth at Massachusetts
Prediction: Massachusetts

When Shaka Smart's troops are at their very best, they're forcing turnovers and feeding off their defense. But the Minutemen own an outstanding 1.57 assist-turnover ratio at home, averaging a whopping 20.6 apg to 13.2 tpg. And while the teams are equal as far as points allowed per game in tonight's situation (VCU road; UMass home), the Minutemen are much better at making teams work for those points. UMass is 10-1 SU on their home floor, holding teams to 42.7% shooting and a very stingy 27.2% from behind the arc. VCU is more permissive, allowing their "hosts" to make nearly 47% of their shots. The Rams are a poor rebounding team on the road and they average just 17 FTA per road game, while their opponents average 26.5. VCU lost a tough and emotional battle to St. Louis last time out and they have covered just 2 of their last 11 following a SU loss. More of the same. I'm recommending a play on UMass on Friday night.

Marc Lawrence

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers had lost eight of nine contests and the fall guy fired on February 6th was GM Chris Grant, a former 6?10? center from the University of San Diego, where he was a teammate of Cavaliers? coach Mike Brown. A couple of his major blunders ? besides bringing back Brown ? were the drafting of Anthony Bennett (and his weight problem) at #1 last season instead of Victor Oladipo, along with the signing of colossal failure Andrew Bynum. The firing of Grant was no shock but the retention of Brown was surprising to some; apparently both have been the right moves as the Cavs entered the break with four consecutive wins. That creates a post-All Star value play here with the Cavaliers sporting a new attitude and the Raptors still carrying a lot of holiday weight (19-6 ATS post-Christmas Eve). This is the first meeting of the season between these two teams, although they will be back at it on Tuesday. The visitor in this series is 8-2 ATS and Cleveland is 8-1 ATS here when sub .358, while the Raptors are 5-8 ATS at the Air Canada Centre versus non-rested opponents this season at press time. The ugly dog barks again, but after a little grooming at the kennel, this pooch is a little easier on the eyes. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Sam Martin

Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies

We have a feeling most of the betting public will be taking the Clippers here tonight, but we like Memphis at home and don't believe LA is nearly as intimidating on the road where they are just 14-14 straight up compared to at the Staples Center where they are a dominant 23-5.

Clippers will be playing just their second road game since January 30th and their first in six games overall. Meanwhile Memphis is heating up with three straight victories and a 10-3 mark in their last 13. These two clubs always seem to get up for each other after the playoff battles and we look for Memphis' home court advantage to be the difference.

Art Aronson

Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Prediction: Chicago Bulls

Chicago has lost five straight to Denver coming into this game and should be well motivated to take advantage of a tired and depleted Nuggets team here. The Nuggets are still without star guard Ty Lawson and while they were able to get a nice win at struggling Milwaukee, this is a whole other task here in Chicago. Chicago is 15-12 ATS when revenging a loss to an opponent this season. The Bulls are ready and rested to get a big win as the team is coming off a big road win at Toronto. The Bulls are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games and are 5-3 SU and ATS in February games as they continue to march their way up the Eastern conference standings. The Bulls are shooting 48.2 percent during their winning streak after previously hitting 42.2 percent of their shots. They were already limiting teams to 93.0 points per game, but that number has dropped to 84.8 over the last four. The Nuggets have lost five of their last six coming into this game and are just 11-16 on the road this season. Lay the points here as Chicago should get the easy win at home.

Jimmy Boyd

Pelicans/Bobcats Under 192

The point total for this game is quite a bit higher than it should be for a matchup that features to bad offensive teams, and two very underrated defenses. It starts with the Pelicans who are scoring 99 points per game on the road this season. That has come against some soft teams whose defensive scoring average is over 100 points per game. I expect the offense to struggle in this matchup against the Bobcats who have surrendered a mere 94.6 points per game at home this season.

The Bobcats offense is also in for a long night, but that has been the norm for Charlotte fans this season. They average 94.4 points per game at home this season, and are facing a Pelicans team that has held opponents well below their scoring averages to 97.6 points per game over their last five games. This matchup fits into a system to play the under when the total is between 190 to 199.5 points and the road team is well rested playing only their second game in the last five games, and they have a win percentage of 40 to 49 percent on the season. This system has a 50-22 (69%) record to the under for the last five seasons.

Nick Parsons

San Antonio Spurs vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: Phoenix Suns +1½

These teams have played twice this year already and San Antonio has won both straight up. It lost the first one ATS, but easily covered in a 108-101 victory as a 3.5 point dog in Phoenix the last time out.

I’m fully expecting the Suns to take advantage of this banged up and over achieving Spurs side and to exact a little double revenge at the same time.

This is the finale of a season-high nine-game road trip for San Antonio and the Spurs will once again be without the services of guard Tony Parker (groing); they’ll also be mssing Kawhi Leonard (hamstring).

The Suns come in with momentum, they’ve won both games since the break including a 100-94 victory over Boston on Thursday.

Note that as good as the Spurs have once again been this year, this particular spot has given them troubles all season, just 4-5 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and only 8-9 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories.

And note that Phoenix is already 17-8 ATS this year vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest and also 11-4 ATS in revenging a home loss vs. an opponent.

Overwhelming motivational, situational and statistical factors all point to the home side as the sharp wager here.

Jim Feist

New York vs. Orlando
Play: Over 196½

New York has plenty of offensive punch with Carmelo Anthony, 97.2 ppg, off a 98-91 win over New Orleans. Anthony had 13 4th-quarter points against the Pelicans. They lost Iman Shumpert to an injury, and he's an excellent defender. NY is on a 12-5 run over the total and the over is 6-0-1 in the Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record. The Knicks are also 5-1 over the total on the road. Orlando isn't playing much defense, allowing over 101 ppg -- which is what they allowed the last game in a loss at Cleveland. The over is 7-0 in Magic last 7 vs. a team with a losing record, as well as 8-3 over the total in the Magic's last 11 home games, where they prefer to run in front of the home fans. And when these teams meet that's all you see is offense: The over is 19-6-1 in the last 26 meetings! In addition, the over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in Orlando.

Bruce Marshall

Detroit at Wright State
Pick: Detroit

Detroit has proven it can win on the Horizon trail (SU victims include contenders UW-Milwaukee and Valpo) and also beat Wright State, which it did at Calihan Hall on Jan. 4 when holding Raiders to just 35.8% FG shooting. Titans also survived first meeting despite uncharacteristic cold shooting from high scorer Juwan Howard, Jr. (just 2 of 11 from floor). Howard has been on fire since, especially in last six outings when scoring 23.5 ppg, the sort of weapon who can tip the scales in Detroit’s favor once more.