David Glisan
Charlotte -3.5
Charlotte is legit. They won't win the NBA title and will be a sizable underdog to even make it out of the first round of the playoffs but the fact that there's even talk of postseason play is a significant and tangible sign of progress for the long suffering Bobcats' franchise. For the first time in memory the Bobcats were 'buying' rather than 'selling' at the trade deadline, picking up guards Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour from the Bucks. The Bobcats are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games and based on the valuations of their most recent home games the market hasn't caught up to the fact that this franchise is finally heading in the right direction. New Orleans has some nice pieces in place--not the least of which is Anthony Davis--but at this point they're simply not as good of a team as Charlotte. Pelicans enter this contest on a 2-5-1 ATS run and have been a money loser away from the Crescent City this year with a 10-17 SU/10-15-2 ATS road record. This price suggests that these teams are evenly matched on a neutral court and I sure don't see that--the Bobcats have played nasty team defense all year and with Al Jefferson playing as well as anyone in the league at the moment and Kemba Walker back in the lineup they've got offense now too.
Robert Ferringo
Manhattan (-5) over Siena
No team in the country has endured as heartbreaking of a week as Siena. Last Friday they gave up five points in the last seven seconds to snatch defeat from the claws of victory at Marist (65-64). They followed that up with a gut-wrenching triple-overtime loss to Canisius, 92-88, and right now there is just no way to know where the Saints’ heads are at. This is one of the youngest teams in the country, ranked No. 340 of 352 in terms of experience, and two tough L’s like that can cripple a young team. Now they have to dive into the teeth of the Manhattan full-court, full-game pressure. The Jaspers won the first meeting by 22 points, and Siena couldn’t take care of the ball against Manhattan’s press. Manhattan is, in my opinion, the best team in the Metro, and heading into Wednesday they were riding a five-game winning streak. George Beamon is finally healthy, and this group is making a serious stretch move. They are going to keep kicking Siena while the Saints are down, and they will get this winner on Friday.
Chase Diamond
New Orleans vs. Charlotte
Play: New Orleans +4
This game features the 23-30 Pelicans at the 25-30 Bobcats. Pelicans and Bobcats are still alive in the playoff race with the Bobcats holding the 8 spot in the playoff bracket. Expect the motivated Pelicans to come out and show they are the more talented unit here. 59% of the money is on the home Bobcats yet this line went from +4 to +3.5 showing us good sharp action on the Pelicans. Take the Pelicans plus the points tonight.
Carlos Salazar
Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies +2
Carlos is going with the home dog Friday night as he sees some value in Memphis. The Clippers have struggled at time this season on the road and will make just enough mistakes for Memphis to win outright at home Friday night.
DAVE COKIN
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS AT MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
PLAY: LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS -1.5
The Clippers will look to get back on the beam tonight after opening their post-break action on a sour note. They did not play well on Tuesday in losing at home to San Antonio, so I’ll be looking for an improved effort tonight as LA heads to Memphis to duel the Grizzlies.
Memphis is on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs are concerned, but it’s not by much. In spite of injury issues, the Grizzlies have played well lately. Their current three-game win streak has them right on the heels of the Mavericks, Warriors and Suns. So Memphis is not likely to be a pushover tonight.
Nevertheless, the Clippers are one of the best when it comes to jumping on them off a defeat. This team is 14-5 both straight up and against the spread following a loss. The numbers on the road are solid enough, 7-4 outright and 9-2 ATS. Meanwhile, the Grizzlies are only 7-8/5-10 playing at home off a win. So the trends here would seem to favor the visitors.
Just a heads up, this play won’t likely be on my personal ticket on Friday night. That’s likely going to be very thin as there’s only one play on the college side I like as of now. It’s the Friday night dilemma as there’s not much to choose from. But I do see enough to at least tilt toward the Clippers in this matchup, so they’re the comp selection tonight.
Patrick Webb
VCU vs. Massachusetts
Play: VCU +1½
VCU and UMASS met twice last season and the result was two dominant wins for VCU. UMASS has a tough match up in this game as they play at an almost identical pace to VCU and struggle with TO% (19.2%). Last season UMASS committed 47 turnovers in the two meetings with star guard Chaz Williams responsible for 11 of them. VCU is forcing opponents into a turnover on over a quarter of their defensive possessions this season.
UMASS has a sterling 10-1 record at home, but are only 4-7 ATS meaning they are consistently under-performing at home. VCU is 4-4 ATS on the road but they are 3-0 as an underdog this season. In almost every advanced metric these two teams are neutral, but given the styles of these two teams, VCU's success vs. UMASS last season and UMASS struggles with turnovers I love VCU in this spot.
Dennis Macklin
Oakland vs. Illinois-Chicago
Play: Oakland -1½
You'd be hard pressed to find a team that plays more close games than Oakland. The Grizz last three games were decided by three points or less and four of their last seven were decided by a single point. The first meeting was also decided by a single point in a 76-75 Oakland home win back on January 25th. In that game, Oakland was able to escape by forcing 22 turnovers. UIC has lost 16 straight and are 0-13 in the lowly regarded Horizon. The Flames have been close in last two but will pretty much need to win straight up here. Not sure that this 5-22 (2-8 ATS at home) outfit is capable. Oakland is worth a look.
LT Profits
Manhattan vs Siena
Pick: Manhattan -5
The Manhattan Jaspers are 20-6 and they will be favored in their last three games counting this one. The Jaspers are the highest ranked MAAC team on the Pomeroy Ratings at 68th overall, and many feel if they win out and end the season 23-6, they would have a strong case to receive an NCAA Tournament at-large berth should they get knocked out of the MAAC Tournament. But they must win out first, and Manhattan usually wins with defense ranking 51st nationally in defensive efficiency, 31st in effective field goal percentage allowed and 17th in defensive turnover percentage at 21.9 percent vs. a national average of 18.5 percent. The Siena Saints are 11-16 overall, they are a terrible shooting team ranked 309th in effective field goal percentage and they are vulnerable to pressure ranking 314th in offensive turnover percentage. Manhattan is 41-18-3 ATS in its last 62 road games.
David Banks
Chicago Bulls -7
There is a rather intriguing non-conference battle from the Windy City on ESPN Friday night when the defensive minded Chicago Bulls (28-25, 26-27 ATS) serve as hosts vs. the run-and-gun Denver Nuggets (24-28, 22-30 ATS) at the United Center in Chicago at 8:05 ET. The Bulls may struggle mightily to score points a lot of the time, but their outstanding defense had keyed a four-game winning streak that has them at three games over .500 for the first time since they began the season at 6-3, and Chicago is currently seeded fourth in the East. The Nuggets have now lost five straight games straight up and six straight games ATS, and they are 11th in the West at 6 games behind the eighth and final playoff spot.
The Bulls are seeking some revenge here as they have lost the last five head-to-head meetings with the Nuggets including a 97-87 loss at Denver the first time these teams met this season. Considering the direction that each of these teams is heading in lately, this seems like a prime spot for Chicago to get that revenge, and perhaps in rather emphatic fashion too. The Bulls come off of a big 94-92 win on the road in Toronto on Wednesday that allowed them to pull to within one-half game of the Raptors for the third seed in the Eastern Conference. Remember, as long as the Bulls have the best record among non-division winners in the East, they would have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs, although obviously they would get an easier matchup if that can finish as the third seed. Chicago is suffocating teams as usual, just like Coach Tom Thibodeau likes it, as it is second in the NBA in points against at 92.3 points per game, third in field goal percentage allowed at 43.4 percent and second in defensive efficiency. Granted the Bulls are dead last in the league in scoring at 92.3 points per game, exactly matching their points against average, but they have raised that average a bit to 94.5 points during the win streak and the Denver defense can make just about any offense look better than it is.
The struggling Nuggets have gone back to playing the running style they played under former coach George Karl with practically zero regard for defense, and as a result they have now allowed at least 100 points in 10 consecutive games and in 15 of their last 16 contests! And that is pending Denver's result in Milwaukee Thursday as this game marks the second of a back-to-back. The Nuggets are still only 11th in the NBA in scoring at 103.1 points per game, although that average has been climbing since new coach Brian Shaw abandoned his desire to install more of a half-court offense, but that has not done much good with a defense ranked 28th out of 30 teams in points against at 104.6 per game. Denver does not figure to have its usual offensive success playing here in Chicago vs. a hot defense, and if that is the case the Nuggets do not have much to fall back on in an attempt to win this game.
The home teams are 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 head-to-head meetings overall including the Bulls going 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Chicago. The Bulls are also 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams with losing straight up records. The Nuggets are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing with no rest and 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. the Eastern Conference.
Primetime Insiders
Mercer -1
Mercer takes the floor tonight against Florida Gulf Coast tonight in Fort Myers, Florida. This is a battle between the two best teams in the Atlantic Sun Conference. Mercer won the earlier meeting between these two squads by 13 points. We are looking for a similar outcome but a closer contest in Fort Myers tonight. Mercer has the number #1 offensive in the conference by shooting a sizzling 42.5% from downtown in conference play. Mercer also does an excellent job on the offensive glass getting a second chance look on 34% of their possessions. Florida Gulf Coast has the #2 defensive in the conference and does an excellent job at defending the interior but does not do as well defending the 3 point shot. They are also not the best defensive rebounding team which should allow Mercer to get many second chance looks. The offensive of Mercer runs through the best player in the conference Langston Hall. He is a double double threat every night he takes the floor. His senior leadership and the way he commands the floor is something special. In the previous matchup against Gulf Coast he recorded 18 points and 11 assists. Mercer is also the top defense in the conference limiting opponents from field as well as on the offensive glass. Florida Gulf Coast scores almost all their points from inside the arch where they shoot a blistering 53% however Mercer's interior defensive is no pushover. Daniel Coursey is a force inside and is one of the shot blockers in the conference if not the entire country. Coursey's presence inside should deter Gulf Coast from driving to the basket. Mercer does an excellent job at turning teams over with the stealing capabilities of Langston Hall. If Hall can stay out of foul trouble he should be able wreck havoc on both ends of the floor. Even though Gulf Coast is looking to avenge the previous loss at the hands of Mercer they just don't have enough firepower to keep up with the senior lead Mercer squad.
Dave Mathews
Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -7
The Denver Nuggets are coming off a win over Milwaukee last night and now they have to take on a physical Chicago team. That's without speedy guard Ty Lawson, who has broken ribs. The Bulls are 15-10 at home and have won four straight games. They could finish in third place in the Eastern Conference. They will dominate an short-handed Denver team that will be tired playing in the second of a back-to-back.
Mid-Major Matt
Brown at Columbia
Pick Brown +5.5
Brown has some work to do if they hope to get themselves in the Ivy League race and join Harvard and Yale. They are at Columbia on Friday night. The Bears have won five of their last seven games including one on the road at Dartmouth. Sean McGonagill is one of the best scorers in the conference and he's joined by Rafael Maia who is also the team's leading rebounder. Brown is 15th in the country in rebounding per game. Columbia is ranked 254th in that category. The Lions have lost four of their last six games. They are led by Alex Rosenberg and Maodo Lo. Brown already has a win over Columbia from February 1st in which the Bears won despite shooting 39.3% from the field. Brown has won four straight in this series and is probably the better team overall. We'll take the road team to get the cover.
Teddy Covers
San Antonio vs. Phoenix
Pick: San Antonio
My clients and I have already cashed four winning bets supporting San Antonio on their annual ‘Rodeo Road Trip’. And we’ve got another prime opportunity to make money riding the Spurs as they close out their extended trip tonight in Phoenix.
The Spurs go through this February stretch every season, and just about every season, they make money for their supporters. They went 7-2 SU on this trip last year, 8-1 SU on this trip in 2012 and 6-3 SU on the trip in 2011. I could go back further, but you get the point. It’s surely worth noting that the Spurs have closed out their successful trips with a victory in their last Rodeo Road Trip game in each of the last three years
“Spurs head coach Greg Popovich gets the point too. “This is a time when we always try to make hay. Historically, that ‘Rodeo Road Trip’; that time before, during and after the All Star break has always been good for us. We’ve got a lot of away games. It’s a great time to come together and get the bunker mentality, and all that trade crap. But it works for us.”
The Spurs are getting healthier, despite the injury loss of Tony Parker, who’s absence hasn’t been felt too much with Patty Mills and Marco Bellinelli stepping up in the backcourt. Danny Green, Tiago Splitter and Manu Ginobili have all returned to the lineup in recent games. Tim Duncan is expected back on the floor tonight after sitting out the second night of back-2-backs at Portland on Wednesday. And underrated forward Kawhi Leonard could be back on the floor tonight, giving Popovich the roster depth that he covets.
The Suns came up on the short end of the scoreboard in both previous meetings with San Antonio this year, and they’ve lost each of their last two home games against a defensive minded foe (Chicago and Miami). I’m not expecting this ‘step up in class’ opportunity to be any different for a Suns squad that has maxed out in terms of their abilities and their ATS value following a truly impressive first half of the campaign. The time to make money supporting the Suns was a month or two ago, not now.
Larry Ness
New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
Charlotte hosts New Orleans Friday night looking to win its SEVENTH in its last 10 games. The Bobcats are 7-2 ATS over their last nine, coming off consecutive wins in a home-and-home with the Pistons, winning 108-96 in Detroit and 116-98 in Charlotte. Center Al Jefferson (20.5-10.5) has been 'on fire,' averaging 27.6 PPG on 54% shooting plus 10.8 RPG over his last 10.
Kidd-Gilchrist (8.0-4.9) has been back for awhile now and while he's no star, his solid overall play is welcomed. More importantly, the return to action of PG Kemba Walker (from an ankle issue) has been a major bonus, as he's averaged 15.7 points and 8.2 assists since returning six games ago (had 46 points and added 22 assist in the two wins over Detroit).
Jefferson wasn't available when these two teams met in New Orleans way back on Nov 2 (a 105-84 Pelicans win) and this time around, the Pelicans will be without then-starters PG Holiday (14.3-4.2-7.9) and center Jason Smith (9.7-5.8) plus the team's valuable sixth-man Ryan Anderson (19.5 PPG and 40.9% on three-pointers) also remains sidelined for New Orleans.
Yes, Davis (20.4-10.1) has played at an All-Star level all season and Gordon (16.0) is a consistent scorer but Charlotte can 'smell' the playoffs and that's a BIG deal. Charlotte has qualified for the postseason only ONCE in its previous nine seasons of existence (a first-round sweep at the hands of Orlando in 2010) but it currently holds the eighth spot by 2 1/2 games over Detroit, plus is just one game behind Washington and Brooklyn, which are tied for fifth.
The Bobcats bolstered their ranks by acquiring guards Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour from Milwaukee prior to Thursday's trade deadline. Neal should help Charlotte improve upon a perimeter attack that ranks 29th in the NBA with an average of just 5.8 made three-pointers, as he is a career 39.3 percent shooter from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, the Pelicans, despite a similar record (23-30 to Charlotte's 25-30), New Orleans finds itself EIGHT games out of a playoff spot in the much more competitive West.
I don't say this often but lay the points with the Bobcats.
Michael Alexander
Denver Nuggets vs. Chicago Bulls
Play: Chicago Bulls -7
Chicago has won four straight to pull three games over .500 and into fourth place in the underwhelming Eastern Conference. The Nuggets are hoping Thursday’s triumph sparks a quick change in its own fortunes, as they sit six games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference after being the No. 3 seed last season. The Denver Nuggets pulled out of a five-game skid at the expense of the worst team in the NBA and will attempt to keep that momentum up against stiffer competition when they visit the Chicago Bulls