Tom Grassi
Dartmouth vs. Princeton
Play: Dartmouth +13
This Ivy League matchup is one in which the double-digit favorite actually has the revenge angle in its favor, after Dartmouth shocked Princeton’s Tigers on February 1 in a 78-69 win in which they were a 7.5 home dog.
However, it’s been a consistent pattern over the past five years that heavily-favored teams such as the Tigers that haven’t played for close to a week don’t cover in such situations. During that time, more than three-quarters of the games played ended up with the underdog covering once again.
In addition to that, this has been a series dominated by the road team over the past decade-plus, with the Big Green having covered 11 of the last 12 times they’ve come to Princeton.
The Tigers have a slight edge when it comes to the early money on this game, though the line has been bumped down a half-point. That sounds as if some of the wiseguys see enough of a cushion with the pointspread to go with the dog. We do as well, so take the points.
Dennis Macklin
Oakland vs. Illinois-Chicago
Play: Oakland -1½
You'd be hard pressed to find a team that plays more close games than Oakland. The Grizz last three games were decided by three points or less and four of their last seven were decided by a single point. The first meeting was also decided by a single point in a 76-75 Oakland home win back on January 25th. In that game, Oakland was able to escape by forcing 22 turnovers. UIC has lost 16 straight and are 0-13 in the lowly regarded Horizon. The Flames have been close in last two but will pretty much need to win straight up here. Not sure that this 5-22 (2-8 ATS at home) outfit is capable. Oakland is worth a look.
Alex Smart
Mavericks vs. 76ers
Play: Over 212
The Dallas Mavericks are on two days rest and will be ready to run and gun here this evening. They have gone OVER 5 straight times with two or more days rest and have gone OVER in 6 of their L/7 against a team like Philly with a winning % of less than .400 on the season.The Mavericks offense should explode here tonight on a Philadelphia team that comes in allowing a league-high 110.5 points per game. The Sixers will have to reciprocate and try to keep up by putting some points on the board, which should easily set forth a situation that sees this lofty total eclipsed
Final notes & Key Trends: The Over is also 7-2 in Mavericks last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. Meanwhile, the 76ers are also rested with 2 days off and are 43-21-1 OVER their last 65 games playing on 2 days rest.
Mr. Masterline
Harvard vs. Pennsylvania
Play: Harvard -10.5
Twenty days ago, Harvard crushed Penn by 30 points. Tonight won't be too much different. They dominated the glass 32-16. Harvard has won 6 out of 7, while Penn has lost 4 out of 6, covering only 1 during that stretch. Penn has been devastated with injuries, as they have 4 scholarship players out for the season, and two move questionable tonight. Easy win for Harvard, almost like if they were playing chess!
Rob Vinciletti
Boston Celtics vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Los Angeles Lakers -1.5
The Lakers have lost 14 of the last 16 at home and 8 straight. A streak they will look to break tonight against the Boston Celtics, who arrive off a road loss to Phoenix in their first game back from the break. The Lakers were Blasted by the Rockets on Wednesday. This game has a Powerful system that plays on home teams off a home spread loss, like the Lakers that played that last game with 4 or more days off, and are taking on an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog and also had 4 or more prior days off before that game. These home teams are winning by an average 13 points per game. The Celtics have lost 4 of the last 5 here and LA will look to play well in this one despite not having recently traded S. Blake, a move Kobe Bryant called. "Not Cool". That said we think the Lakers will rise up and get this one tonight.
Wunderdog
Atlanta at Detroit
Pick: Atlanta +4
The Atlanta Hawks are looking to get back on track as they have lost seven straight games, and have failed to cover any of them. They will try and do so vs. an equally struggling Detroit Pistons team that is just as ugly over a much longer stretch at just 8-16 in their last 24, and are riding a three game slide themselves. One difference is that the Pistons' three game losing streak is to three losing teams, failing to cover any of those, and two of them were on their home court as well. The Hawks will have their best foot forward tonight, as they are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 on a day of rest, while the fragile Pistons are now just 4-10 ATS in their last 14 off an ATS loss. Go with Atlanta.
Erin Rynning
Denver at Chicago
Play: Under 190
The Denver Nuggets head to the Windy City searching for answers across the board, particularly on the offensive end of the floor after losing point guards Ty Lawson and Nate Robinson. Randy Foye has tried to fill in but he’s obviously playing out of position. Tonight, it won’t get any easier for the Nuggets as they’ll face one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. The Bulls with outstanding head coach Tom Thibodeau thrive at being able to take away what the opposition does well. Catching Denver in a back-to-back situation will make scoring for the Nuggets a true uphill battle. The Bulls have held the opposition to an average of less than 85 points per game their last four and have gone UNDER the total in 8 of their last 11. They’re playing arguably their best basketball of the season, while winning four in a row with an eye towards the playoffs. Look for a low scoring, sloppy game in Chicago tonight that goes UNDER the total.
Hollywood Sports
VCU at Massachusetts
Prediction: Under
VCU (20-6) looks to rebound from a 64-62 loss at St. Louis last Saturday as a 5.5-point underdog. The Rams have then played 4 straight games Under the Total after a point spread win.
UMass (20-5) has played 19 of their last 26 games Under the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. And in their last 8 games on their home court, the Minutemen have played 6 of these games Under the Total. Look for these team trends to continue and take the Under in this one.
Dave Price
New Orleans Pelicans +3
The knee-jerk reaction might be to go with a Charlotte team at home that's playing well as it seeks revenge for a 21-point loss at New Orleans in the season's first meeting. However, history says we should resist that tendency. Instead, you want to fade home teams that are seeking revenge for a road loss of 20 points or more if the team they're seeking revenge against checks in off an upset loss. That's because doing so has produced a 131-80 ATS mark since 1996. You also want to take teams like New Orleans when the line is +3 to -3 that are off an upset loss at home, provided they are playing for just the third time or less in a 10-day span. Doing so has produced a 40-15 ATS result since 1996. In addition, fading favorites off a win of 15 points or more in a game involving two teams with a +/- 3.0 ppg differential has produced a 73-37 ATS mark the last five seasons. Charlotte hasn't been a strong revenge play, going just 29-54 ATS the last three seasons when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. It also doesn't bode well for the normally offensively-challenged Bobcats that they have reached the century mark in their past two games. Consider that they are 1-10 ATS the last two seasons after scoring 100 points or more in two straight games. They have lost by an average score of 101.4 to 89.6 in this spot. Lastly, it is worth noting that New Orleans has won eight of the last 10 meetings with the two losses coming by just one and two points, respectively.
Jack Jones
Nuggets/Bulls Under 190.5
I fully expect a defensive battle tonight between the Denver Nuggets and Chicago Bulls. This is a National TV game as well featured on ESPN, which also favors the under as teams tend to give better effort in these situations.
The Bulls will control the tempo playing at home tonight. They like to go at a snail's pace, ranking 28th in the league with only 92.9 possessions per game. They make up for their lack of offense with a defense that ranks 2nd in the league in efficiency, yielding just 97.8 points per 100 possessions.
Denver is in a world of hurt right now offensively. It has been without its top two point guards in Ty Lawson (18.0 ppg, 8.8 apg) and Nate Robinson (10.4 ppg). It did trade for Aaron Brooks, but he's going to be lost out there in his first game with the team.
Chicago is a perfect 7-0 to the UNDER in home games versus teams who average 53 or more rebounds per game this season. The Bulls are 24-8 to the UNDER versus a team with a losing record this season. The UNDER is 19-7 in Bulls last 26 home games. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
Jeff Alexander
Orlando Magic +3.5
The Knicks have struggled on the road where they are 9-15 on the season. They won their last road game in New Orleans but had lost five straight away from MSG prior. One of these losses was against lowly Milwaukee. Orlando is 0-2 following the All-Star Break but both losses were on the road. The Magic have been far better at home where they are 5-1 in their last 6 with wins against Oklahoma City and Indiana. The Magic are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games versus teams with a losing road record. Bet the Magic.
Doug Upstone
Atlanta Hawks vs. Detroit Pistons
Play: Detroit Pistons -3½
On Friday, Play On home favorites like Detroit after a loss by 10 points or more, against opponent after four straight losses by 10 points or more. The thinking is teams like Atlanta are just playing horribly and the Pistons coming off a bad loss themselves, are better positioned as a home favorite to win this contest. In the past 17 years this rare situation is 25-6 ATS.
Ray Monohan
Los Angeles Clippers -2
The Grizzlies may be back at full strength but I think they are getting a little too much respect in this one. This became a buying opportunity as soon as the Clippers lost their second half opener to San Antonio but the Grizz don’t have nearly the offensive efficiency of the Spurs. The Clippers are 17-11 ATS on the road this season and beat the Grizzlies by 20 in December, also on the road.I don’t think the return of Marc Gasol closes that gap that much.
AC Dinero
Brown vs. Columbia
Play: Brown +7
Both teams come in off wins. Brown hasn't been shooting the ball well lately, so look for that to change. The Columbia defense has bben subpar ove rthe past 5 games. I really like the Brown defense, giving up only 39%. Even though we are backing a road team, I like the points with the better defensive and rebounding team
Greg Shaker
Knicks / Magic Over 195
We are working the Saturday CBB Card pretty hard today and as usual Saturday should feature a good card for us. Because of that the thoughts on NBA will be very brief. So far two plays and that might be it. This is the 1st one with our number being 201.8 and based on a number of reasons, not limited by the fact that the Magic OE is much better here at this venue than when they travel and they do tend to pace up here as well. These teams have played to a lot of OVERS when they play here and with a Day's Rest we should see a number of possessions.