David BanksFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Spurs / Warriors Over 210FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The scoreboard operator figures to be kept busy on Friday night when the San Antonio Spurs (43-12, 30-23-2 ATS) stay on the west coast to take on the Golden State Warriors (31-23, 28-25-1 ATS) at Oracle Arena in Oakland, CA at 10:35 ET on ESPN. The Spurs beat the Kings at Sacramento 108-102 in their first game following the All-Star break and they had a date with Blake Griffin, Chris Pail and the rest of the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday. The Warriors put the brakes on a six-game losing streak with a 108-98 home win over the Phoenix Suns in their first game following the break on Wednesday.
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The Spurs are the hottest team in the NBA as they have won 15 of their last 16 games pending Thursday's result, leaving them with the best record in the NBA at 43-12. San Antonio is averaging 103.0 points per game during the 15-1 run and the Spurs rank fourth in the league in scoring overall this season at 104.3 points per game. They are also second in field goal percentage at 48.7 percent and fourth in three-point shooting, and for a veteran team, they do not mind running the floor as they rank seventh in the NBA with a pace rating of 96.3 possessions per game. Now while it is true that the Spurs are better defensively this season than they were last year, ranking eighth in points against at 95.9 per game, they have not been as stingy as of late while surrendering 98.2 points per game in the last five contests. Given that both of these teams play fast, do not be surprised if both clubs top the century mark in this contest.
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The youthful Warriors have become one of the more exciting teams in the league and they remain in second place in the Pacific Division despite that six-game slide prior to the break. The Warriors have also been one of the more 'over' friendly teams in the NBA as they rank eighth in the league in scoring a 101.1 points per game and they lead the league in three-point shooting at 39.3 percent, while at the same time they rank 26th in points against at 101.4 per encounter, The end result has been a 35-18-1 'over' record including 15-8-1 here in Oakland. Granted these teams went 'under' when they last met January 18th in San Antonio, but keep in mind that Stephen Curry missed that game due to an ankle injury. Curry was one of the more notable All-Star Game snubs this season and he is coming off of a 20-point, 11-assist effort vs. the Suns on Wednesday.
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The 'over' is still 15-7-1 in the last 23 head-to-head meetings between these teams and 21-8 in the last 29 Golden State conference games. The 'over' is also 12-5-1 the last 18 times that San Antonio has played the second game of a back-to-back.
WunderdogFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago at CharlotteFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Chicago -6.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Chicago Bulls were downright embarrassed last night at the United Center, scoring just 67 points in a blowout loss to the Miami Heat. The Heat are playing on another planet right now. These are professional athletes, and when they get one "stuck in their face," they more often than not come back motivated and hungry. Teams off an ugly loss where they scored 68 or fewer points cover 59.2% of the time coming back the next night. Normally an opponent heading to Charlotte may be in for a letdown, but that won't be the case tonight. The Bobcats' home-court advantage is non-existent as they are 17-41 ATS in their last 58 here. Go with the Bulls.
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Dartmouth +11.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams played on February 2nd and Dartmouth handed Yale a 9 point loss. The change in venue is not enough to swing the end result enough for Yale to cover such a large number. You should always play against home favorites of 10 or more points like Yale when they are off a home win against a conference rival, in February games. This trend is 194-122 (61.4%) over the last 5 seasons. This game also falls into a situation to play on a road team like Dartmouth shooting 40% or less and playing against a team allowing 42.5-45% shooting after 15+ games in the season. This situation is 122-75 (61.9%) over the last 5 seasons. Dartmouth does a good job of controlling turnovers, averaging 14 or less per game on the road. They do an average job on the boards averaging 9 offensive rebounds per game on the road while Yale averages 9 offensive boards at home. Yale may get their revenge in this game, but it should not be by the 11+ points it will take to cover this large spread.
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Dallas vs. New OrleansFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mavs are 24-29 and in 11th-place, leaving them 4 1/2 games back of eighth-place Houston in the Western Conference playoff standings. They have little margin for error in their attempt to extend their playoff streak to 13 years. The Mavericks defeated pathetic Orlando 111-96 in their first game after the All-Star break on Wednesday and now visit New Orleans to take on the 19-36 Hornets. New Orleans made it through the NBA trade deadline with Eric Gordon (16.6 PPG in 19 games) still on the roster. Gordon, whose name was mentioned in trade rumors, sat out a 105-100 loss in Cleveland on Wednesday as the team prohibits him from playing on successive days. He scored 20 in 30 minutes of a 96-87 loss to Chicago the night before. "I wish that (policy) was over, but we don't see it ending anytime soon," coach Monty Williams said. "For whatever reason, the doctors feel that's best for Eric. But he's healthy, so it's tough." Although Gordon is healthy, he has been hit-or-miss in his last eight games, averaging 23.0 points and 50.0 percent shooting in four but 8.0 points and 29.4 percent in the other four. The truth is, Hew Orleans is a huge MONEY-MAKER as a road dog (38-21 ATS these last two seasons) but the Hornets are just 9-16 SU at home this season. Meanwhile, the Mavs' 15-3 ATS mark since Jan 9 is the best in the league and Dallas has been a great play on the road the past few months, covering 9 of its last 11 as a visitor. Take the Mavs.
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Houston / Brooklyn Under 208FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rockets are coming from a huge win over the Thunder, but this game may leave marks for tonight's contest. That game had a pace of 104, the team was shorthanded and they were forced to use their starters for heavy minutes: Carlos Delfino 42 minutes, Jeremy Lin 42 minutes, James Harden 44 minutes and Chandler Parsons only played 35 minutes because he got injured during the game. The Rockets only had 1 day off to rest and they had to travel to Brooklyn, so this is a tough spot for them to perform. On the other hand, the Nets don't have an easy spot neither. They will be playing their third game in four nights, after a home-home series against Milwaukee, where they won both games. On their last game at Milwaukee, they won the game mostly due to their bench, as their starters looked lethargic! Now on a poor spot, I don't expect the Nets to be particularly energetic tonight either.
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Matchup wise, Houston has a clear edge with the speed of their guards. James Harden and Jeremy Lin have a clear edge in terms of speed against Deron Williams and Joe Johnson, so the Nets's gameplan for tonight will be very simple: insert a slow pace in the game and avoid a run and gun game at any cost! Brooklyn will try to take advantage of their size edge in the frontcourt, with Brook Lopez, while refusing to run as they would get crushed by the Rockets on an up and down game, even though Houston's spot is very tough.
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The first time these two teams faced each other, Brooklyn was blown out at Houston. The Nets were unable to slow down the pace and because of that, the Nets allowed a season high of 119 points! Note that the pace of that game was "just" 90.80! Brooklyn had no time to prepare for that game, as it was a back to back contest for them and they had been crushed at Memphis the night before. Deron Williams had his best offensive game of the season with 10-15 FG, 27 points and 11 assists, while Houston's offense did whatever they wanted to do with 60 points in the paint, 27 fast break points and 12-28 (42.9%) 3pts! With the Nets using a different game plan tonight and with both teams being on a poor spot, I see this line as being set way too high. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
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Detroit +9½ -108 over INDIANAFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pacers stock is soaring with seven wins in their past nine games with only losses both occurring in OT. Indiana is coming off a 34-point win over the Knicks to increase its appeal even more. The Pacers have owned the Pistons over the past few years, defeating them and covering in nine straight at home and 15 of the past 17 games overall. All this would appear to heavily favor the host but we’re on alert.
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The Pistons are playing some decent basketball of their own. The last time they went into Indiana on Jan. 30, losing 98-79, was the same night that Detroit, Toronto and Memphis swung that three-way deal. Detroit played that game shorthanded, while in a state of shock. More recently, Detroit has won four of six and two straight on the road. Included in Detroit’s current run is a 10-point victory over the league leading Spurs. The Pistons now come in here with the stronger bench and hitting at a higher percentage from the floor than the Pacers over both clubs’ past dozen games. When the Pistons come to play, they’re a highly competitive bunch. That’s the group we expect to see here. Additionally, current form requires a little extra to back Indy and we hate to overpay.
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NASHVILLE -104 over VancouverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. We mentioned yesterday how Vancouver is just not the same dominate team we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the past decade. They subsequently went out and defeated the Stars in Dallas but it was not because they played a strong game. They came out rather flat and ended up scoring four goals on 22 shots on rookie Christopher Nilstorp. That’s not going to happen on Pekka Rinne and the Predators. The Canucks will now play their third road game in four days and their fifth game since last Friday.
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Nashville is not the team you want to play when you’re fatigued. They are a relentless fore-checking club that keeps coming at you the same way with all four lines. At home, the Preds have just one regulation loss and the best news is that the offense has started clicking with 14 goals scored in their past four games. Rinne has a 1.67 GAA, three shutouts and a save % of .935. These two clubs are very much on par with one another but if this game were being played in Vancouver, the Canucks would be -130 favorite. Vancouver is now in a difficult scheduling assignment, they’re on the road and the books have made the game a pick ‘em. That’s true value on the host.
Pass CBB
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Indiana Pacers -9.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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I fully expect the Indiana Pacers (33-21) to roll by double-digits tonight at home over the lowly Detroit Pistons (22-34). The Pacers are coming off back-to-back blowout home victories over Charlotte (101-77) and New York (125-91) and I look for a third straight win of that nature Friday.
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Indiana has been one of the best home teams in the league all season. It is 22-5 at home while outscoring opponents by a whopping 9.3 points/game. Detroit is just 7-19 on the road this season where it is getting outscored by 6.4 points/game.
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One look at the recent head-to-head series and it's easy to see that this is an excellent match-up for the Pacers. They have won three straight and five of their last six meetings with the Pistons with four of those victories coming by 10 or more points. That includes a 98-79 home victory on January 30th, and an 88-77 road win on December 15th in their first two meetings this season. The Pistons are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Indiana.
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Indiana is a very profitable 21-11 ATS as a favorite this season. Detroit is 2-12 ATS as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points over the last 2 seasons. The Pacers are 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more this season. The Pistons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Detroit is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Indiana is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game. Bet the Pacers Friday.
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New York Knicks -1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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It's not surprising to see the Knicks getting undervalued after that horrible 91-125 loss at Indiana on Wednesday. New York simply didn't show up with the same intensity as the Pacers, but that should serve as a wake-up call for tonight's game against the Raptors. Adding even more motivation is the fact that the Knicks just recently lost at home 88-92 to Toronto. The Raptors have been playing much better since they acquired Rudy Gay, but they just lost at home to the Grizzlies and have been very fortunate in a lot of close games.
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New York is 21-10 ATS in their last 33 games vs a team with a losing record, while the Raptors are a miserable 22-46-1 ATS in their last 69 home games vs a team with a winning road record.
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Phoenix Suns +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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You would expect Boston to respond following a blowout loss, but history says to expect otherwise. The Celtics are on a 1-12 ATS slide in road games after a loss by 10 points or more and have lost by an average of 10.0 points in this situation. The Celtics closed 8-1 before the All-Star break without star point guard Rajon Rondo, but seven of those wins came at home. It's been a different story on the road where Boston has lost three in a row and is 8-17 this season. Bet the Suns.
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New Orleans Hornets +2FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Dallas is just 8-19 on the road this season, and its struggles against New Orleans can't be ignored. The Hornets have won the last two meetings, including a 3-point victory in Dallas last month. They have also won 11 of the last 12 home meetings in the series with the lone loss coming by only 2 points. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Mavericks are 3-8-2 ATS in the last 13 meetings overall and 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in New Orleans. Also, the underdog is 7-2-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Take the points.
Dennis MacklinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Long Beach State -2½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bracket Buster weekend tips off with an interesting matchup between the 22-3 Stephen F Austin Lumberjacks and the Long Beach State 49ers. Austin is an excellent defensive team that allows just 37% from the field and just 27.1% from beyond the arc. The Jacks (out of the Southland Conference) just can't be dismissed as they own a road win at Oklahoma. Long Beach State is 17-9 but are battle tested against the toughest non-conference schedule in the country. The losses are at Arizona, at Ohio State, at Syracuse, at UCLA to go along with a home loss to North Carolina. The 49ers have won 12 of 13 in the Big West with their lone loss in a near impossible spot flying to the islands and facing a white hot (at the time) Hawaii outfit. In the end, think that a talented and well coached LBS bunch will find a way to score and cover this small number at the Pyramid. Long Beach State gets it done, lets call it 65-55.
Bob Balfe
Butler -3
The only thing that really matters in this series is home court advantage. St. Louis wins in their building and Butler wins in their own building. There is no reason to out think yourself. Butler is 13-1 at home. This should be a good game, but as we see late in the month all the calls end up going for the home team. Take Butler.
Steve Merril
San Antonio Spurs vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors
San Antonio crushed the Clippers last night 116-90. The Spurs brought tremendous effort for that game as they were seeking double revenge after losing twice to the Clippers earlier this season. While San Antonio was extremely focused for last night’s game in Los Angeles, we do not expect the same type of performance tonight, especially since the Spurs are playing on a back-to-back road set with this also being their third game in four nights. Golden St snapped their 6-game losing streak with a 108-98 home win over the Suns on Wednesday night. The Warriors should carry over that good play into tonight’s game, especially since they are catching San Antonio at the perfect time. The Warriors gave the Spurs a battle last month in San Antonio despite playing without their best player in Stephen Curry. Golden St only lost that game by 7 points (95-88) while shooting terribly from the field (42.9%) and worse from three-point land (25%). The Warriors will have their full lineup on the court tonight, including Curry who has scored 49 points in the two games since the All-Star break. We’ll take the points with home underdog tonight, especially since they are catching San Antonio in a terrible scheduling and situational spot.
Bruce Marshall
Saint Louis vs. Butler
Pick: Saint Louis
Both sides well-positioned for Big Dance, with Butler still aiming for possible protected-seed (1 thru 4) status, while surging SLU is moving smartly to the safe side of the cut line in recent weeks, thanks to its current 8-game win streak. But not convinced the Bulldogs are an automatic revenge play tonight after losing by 17 on road vs. the Billikens back on Jan. 31. Fundamental matchups still could pose a problem for Butler, especially its ballhandlers who committed a ghastly 23 TOs vs. SLU defensive pressure in the first meeting. The deep Bills’ bench, paced by super sub Jordair Jett (14.2 ppg last six; 19 in earlier SLU win), gives Jim Crews’ side a chance at a season sweep.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
St Louis/ Butler Under 125: Both teams play excellent defense and that should really keep the scoring down in this one. St Louis is 27th in the nation in defensive efficiency and they have allowed just 57.9 ppg on the year, including just 58 ppg in their last 7 games. Butler is 62nd in the nation in defensive efficiency and they have allowed 62.7 ppg on the year, but they have been getting better on defense, allowing just 59.4 ppg in their last 5 games, plus the Bulldogs allow just 58.6 ppg at home on the year. This is a huge nationally televised game for these squads and those games generally trend to the under. 133 points were scored in the first meeting between these team, but this time around I don't see these teams cracking 120 points.
North Dakota State/ Akron Under 124: Yes I have read Shaker's Shorts for today and I do realize that Bracketbuster games tend to go Over, but this will not be one of those spots. NDS is one of the slowest paced teams in the nation and that tempo will be important if they hope to pull the upset in this one. NDS is 20-7 on they year and they score just 66.2 ppg because of their pace, plus they have averaged just 62.8 ppg on the road. Offense is not why this team is doing so well this year, but it is because of their defense. The Bison come in allowing just 55.9 ppg on the year, which is 6th in the nation, plus they also allow just 38.2% shooting, which is 15th. Their tough defense and pace should keep Akron in the lower 60's at best. The Zips are not all about offense as their defense comes in allowing just 61.5 ppg (61st) on 38.5% shooting (22nd). At home the Zips have allowed just 59.8 ppg, while in their last 5 overall they have allowed just 58 ppg. We also note that the Under is 21-5 in North Dakota State's last 26 road games, while the Under is 10-3-1 in Akron's last 14 overall. I don't see Either team put up more than 60 points.