Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 25,2011

VEGAS EXPERTS

Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers

Let's get a little revenge on the Nuggets from last night after Denver improved to 2-0 SU/ATS without Carmelo Anthony with last night's upset win at home vs. Boston. Tonight, they play the first road game of the post-Anthony era and without rest, it's a tough spot considering Portland has revenge, is off a SU loss to the Lakers and is 4-1 SU/ATS L5 times hosting the Nuggets. Also, the Blazers are 81-59 ATS when favored.

Play on: Portland

Frank Jordan

New Jersey Nets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: New Jersey Nets +11.5

New Jersey improved greatly with this out of the blue trade for Deron Williams which should set up for a great match up in San Antonio. You have Parker and Williams up top and Duncan and Lopez down low. Look for the picks and rolls to be featured big time with this game being closer then the spread. Play New Jersey

Rob Vinciletti

Loyola Maryland vs. Niagara
Play: Loyola Maryland -3

Loyola plays this one with home loss revenge for a close home loss a few weeks ago. This year they have won 10 of 15 vs losing teams and have won and cashed 6 of 8 times as a road favorite of 3 or less. Niagara has won 2 straight here at home. However they are just 3-11 vs teams with a winning record, 1-4 after allowing 60 or less and 2-7 after allowing less than 40% from the field in their last game. Look for Loyola Md to get the cover tonight.

DAVID CHAN

Minnesota Wild @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks

I bet value where I see it and believe the home team will skate away with the victory this evening.

With last night's FREE PREMIUM WINNER on the "under" in the Blues/Canucks, we've now won three straight; we'll look to keep the ball rolling with this selection.

Minnesota is in a bit of a free fall right now, having dropped four of six; most recently a listless 4-2 loss at LA last night (note that Minnesota is 1-4 its last five at the Honda Center as well).

Our sources tell us that Dan Ellis will get the start in net tonight for the home side, and he'll be looking to stop his teams four game slide.

Ellis comes over in a trade from the Lightning and is 6-2-2 with a 2.51 goals against average over his last 10-starts.

And more good news for Ducks backers is that Ryan Getzlaf is scheduled to return to the lineup tonight after missing a game to be with his wife who gave birth to their son on Thursday; Getzlaf has 2-goals and 8-assists during a six-game streak.

The Ducks play with "revenge" here after being hammered 5-1 by the Wild on February 18th (note that Anaheim is 18-11 [+9.9 units] revenging a loss vs. an opponent this year).

A good spot for Anaheim to get a win here against a tired Minnesota side; consider a play on the ANAHEIM DUCKS.

BIG AL

New Jersey @ San Antonio
PICK: New Jersey +12

The league's best team -- the Spurs -- will get their first look at one of the league's best point guards -- Deron Williams -- in his new Nets uniform on Friday night. And, if San Antone can defeat Avery Johnson's club, it will match its longest home win streak (20 games) in franchise history, established in the 1989-90 season when David Robinson was a rookie playing at the old HemisFair Arena. The Spurs did defeat New Jersey 102-85 on Valentine's Day in Newark, but of course that was with under-achieving Devin Harris on the roster. Look for a much closer game tonight, as Manu Ginobili has been struggling of late, and the team didn't look very sharp in its first game back after the break vs. the Thunder on Wednesday. Grab the points with the Nets.

Nick “The BookieKiller” Parsons

Coyotes @ Blue Jackets
PICK: Over 5

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

The Coyotes have seen the total go "over" the number in 34 of 59 this year (with three "pushes"), including in 16 of 30 on the road; on Wednesday they were hammered 8-3 by the Lightning.

Note that Phoenix has seen the total go "over" the posted number in 8 of 14 games this season after a loss by 2-goals or more in its previous game.

On the other side of the rink: The Blue Jackets have seen the total go "over" the number in 25 of 57 this year (with two "pushes"); on Tuesday they beat the Predators 4-0.

Bottom line: The Blue Jackets continue their journey towards the post-season as they've gone 7-1-1 in their last nine overall; they'll be looking to end a five-game losing streak to the Coyotes tonight though.

Phoenix tries to bounce back after its embarrassing loss to Tampa Bay; it's in command of the fourth spot in the conference right now, trailing Pacific Division leader San Jose by just one point.

Steve Mason is scheduled to be between the pipes for the home side, and he's a dissapointing 0-4-0 with a 3.31 GAA in his last four starts vs. the Coyotes.

An important game for both sides; look for this total to sneak OVER the number tonight.

James Patrick Sports

Thunder vs. Magic

The resigning of Kevin Durant,(Durantchula), and young stars Russell Westbrook, Jeff Green and James Harden has made the Oklahoma City fans believe that they have a force to deal with for some time to come with the Thunder. This is a great test for the "Young Guns" as the Magicians are in a funk wuth Dwight Howard making his remarks about his wanting to be a Laker. After a few more results like Wednesday's loss to Sacramento he may get what he is wishing for. The Big Man's Friday Night NBA complimentary selection is Oklahoma City Thunder.

Jim Feist

Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -2½

Atlanta is a long way from home and this is their 5th straight road game. They haven't been playing well, on a 1-5 SU/ATS run. The offense has really slumped of late and made a big trade this week, sending Mike Bibby, rookie Jordan Crawford, swingman Mo Evans and their 2011 first-round draft pick to the Wizards. Golden State is 19-12 at home and on a nice 3-1 SU/ATS run, even winning at Utah as a dog. They've also won 7 of the last 10 games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Warriors!

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Phoenix Suns -4

Steve Nash has the Suns on a mission to make the playoffs. Phoenix has won 8 of its last 11 to move within 2 games of Memphis for the 8th and final playoff spot. The Suns know how important this 6-game road trip is to their postseason chances, and they aren't about to let a Raptors team they have defeated 12 straight times stand in the way tonight. Phoenix has outscored the Raptors by an average of 12.2 points during its 12-game win streak in the series. The Raptors have been a terrible investment when catching points. In fact, Toronto is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. In addition, it is 10-24-1 ATS in its last 35 games as a home underdog of 4.5 points or fewer. Phoenix, meanwhile, has been a reliable favorite under coach Gentry. In fact, the Suns are 62-44 ATS as a favorite during his watch, winning these games by an average score of 112.2 to 104.9. It is also worth noting that the Suns are 25-10 ATS in the second half of the season under Gentry when up against an opponent with a losing record. The Suns have defeated these teams by an average score of 118.5 to 105.7. Lay the points.

Matt Fargo

Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Toronto Raptors +5

I won with Toronto in its most recent game as it downed Chicago outright on Wednesday. The Raptors remain home and are once again catching points and while I agree that they should be underdogs here, there is absolutely no value on the other side. Toronto is 11-18 at home which is very similar to the road record of the Suns so that is where the lack of value on Phoenix originates from. The Raptors have covered three straight games at home, all of which have been as home underdogs. The Suns embark on a six-game roadtrip after spending the last two weeks at home in Phoenix with no travel involved. They are coming off a home win over Atlanta on Wednesday which put them a game over .500 on the season but they are still two games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings. These games are obviously big ones for Phoenix to try and climb up the ladder but as mentioned, winning on the road has been a real problem for the Suns. Toronto is just 4-11 following a win this season so it has had trouble stringing consecutive victories together however it has dropped only five of those games against the number and that is more important for our purposes here. The Suns, which were road favorites 18 times last season, have been in this role only three times this year showing how bad they have fallen. They are 1-2 in those games, losing outright in Detroit and Sacramento and covering against lowly Cleveland by just a half-point. The Suns will be playing without guard Goran Dragic who was traded to Houston while newly acquired guard Aaron Brooks is doubtful so the backcourt will be shorthanded Friday. Toronto falls into a great contrarian situation as well. Play on underdogs that are allowing opponents to shoot 48 percent or better on the season going up against teams that have shot 50 percent or better from the floor in their last two games. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1996. 3* Toronto Raptors

Tom Freese

Denver Nuggets vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers -6

Denver is 34-25 straight up this year. The Nuggets are 8-17-3 ATS their last 28 games and they are 8-20-2 ATS their last 30 games when playing with no rest. The Nuggets are 7-20 ATS on Friday and they are 4-15-3 ATS their last 22 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. Portland is 32-25 straight up this year. The Trailblazers are 5-1-1 ATS their last 7 games overall and they are 4-0-1 ATS their last 5 games. Portland is 4-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game.

Tom Stryker

Thunder vs. Magic
Magic -7

Off Wednesday's home loss to Sacramento and with another home game on Sunday against Charlotte, Orlando surely won't take Oklahoma City lightly on Friday night. The Magic haven't forgotten about their loss to the Thunder in OKC back on January 13th either.

In the Sunshine State against Oklahoma City, Orlando has played very well posting a strong 10-2 SU and 8-4 ATS record. Provided the Magic enter off a straight up loss, this team trend improves to a spotless 5-0 SU and ATS! Equally impressive, at home checking in off a straight up loss, Orlando has been a solid investment notching a powerful 61-7 SU and 49-27-2 ATS record. In this role matched up against an opponent that enters without momentum off a straight up loss, the Magic improve to a rewarding 26-11 ATS!

Oklahoma City added Celtics Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson to their lineup and those two will certainly compliment superstar Kevin Durant. The addition of Perkins should do wonders for the Thunder's defense - especially in the paint. However, anytime you add new pieces to a team puzzle it takes time for things to gel. Going up against a powerhouse like Orlando is going to be a tall order especially with those new faces.

Off their embarrassing loss to the Kings, the Magic will bounce back nicely here especially with a national ESPN audience watching. Take Orlando.

Dave Price

1 Unit on Nets/Spurs Under 193

Don't see San Antonio investing much in this game with the lowly Nets with a big home and home coming up against a Memphis team that took the Spurs to OT earlier this season. Plus, the Nets will be learning as they go after turning their roster over prior to the trade deadline. It's hard to think New Jersey will be burning up the nets before it can build some chemistry. We haven't seen more than 187 total points scored in each of the last 3 meetings between these teams. Also, NJ is 14-1 UNDER in its last 15 road games after 4 straight games where it made 42% of its shots or worse. We are only seeing 177.1 total points scored on average in this situation. Take the Under.

Ray Monohan

Oklahoma City vs. Magic
Play: Oklahoma City +7

In the marquee Friday night NBA matchup the OKC Thunder travel to Orlando to take Dwight Howard and the Magic. Both teams come into this one with almost identical records (Thunder 36-20 16-12 on the road, Magic 36-22 21-9 at home). The Thunder made a statement with their trade for big man Kendrick Perkins this week from Boston, but won’t have him in the lineup tonight. As for Orlando their first game after the All-Star break left Howard screaming at his team for their poor performance. The Magic are 6 games back of Miami in the Southeast, and 7-7 in their last 14 games. The Thunder are nestled in fourth in the Western Conference, 2½ games behind the Lakers and 3½ ahead of New Orleans. OKC won the first meeting 125-124 on Jan. 13. I look for this one to be close again tonight, OKC plays the Magic tough (splitting 2 games last year as well). Some trends that I like for this game include, OKC are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 Fri. games. Thunder are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Thunder are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. ORL are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Fri. games. Magic are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Northwest.