Info Plays
3* Wizards +14.5
Reasons why Washington will cover:
1) This will be the Heats third game in the last four days, and while they are playing at home against a Washington team that has won just one game on the road all season, it is going to be hard for Miami to come out with the motivation needed to blow the Wizards out. Miami can play half-ass for three quarters and still walk away with a W.
2) Miami is 3-12 ATS in home games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons.
3) Play on road underdogs of 10 or more points - off a road blowout loss of 20 points or more, a bad team (25% to 40%) playing a team with a winning record. It's 63-29 since 1996.
Ben Burns
Minnesota Wild @ Anaheim Mighty Ducks
PICK: Anaheim Mighty Ducks
Off four straight losses, the Ducks could really use a victory. With the schedule and venue in their favor, this offers an excellent opportunity to get one.
While the Ducks had last night off, the Wild are off a 4-2 loss at LA. They return home after this and their next game is a "revenge" spot against the defending Stanley Cup Champs. Note that the Wild are an ugly 3-10 (-6.7) the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games.
These teams have faced each other three times. The home team won all three. The Wild won 2-1 at Minnesota on 11/17. The Ducks returned the favor with a 6-2 victory, here at Anaheim, on 12/12. That was followed by a 5-1 Wild victory, at Minnesota, exactly a week ago.
The Ducks are a lucrative 18-11 (+9.9) the past 29 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They're 61-48 (+20.7) their past 100+ in the "revenge" role. The Ducks are also 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series, going 3-0 the last three meetings here. Consider Anaheim.
JR O'Donnell
Dartmouth +12.5
Huge Huge Over lay here as the O'ster will be backing the Big Green Dartmouth boys (5-19, 1-9 Ivy) at the Yale Bulldogs (12-12, 5-5 Ivy) tonight @ thePizzitola Sports Center. You are going to think we are crazy backing a 1-12 l 13 team in their final away game. The Green actually match up well vs these Bulldogs and Green coach Paul Cormier a huge NBA guy needs to close out the season with a quality performance. The Key here for JR is the return and strong play of Ronnie Dixon, back after 2 months (broken hand) who hung up a 25 pointer vs Columbia, he is a player & he can keep the Green inside the #. The Bulldogs are not that powerful imo. Yale has struggled the last two weekends with losses at Harvard, and at home to Princeton and Penn. These Dartmouth shot 54.2 percent (26-of-48) against the Big Red boys . The #'s are powerful Big Green are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Sam Martin
New York Knicks at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: New York Knicks
Now that Cleveland is blowing up their team, there even less reason to think they'll compete the rest of the way out. While New York is on a high with the addition of Carmello Anthony, Cleveland just shipped Mo Williams to the Clippers for Baron Davis, who has a history of not getting along with Cleveland head coach Byron Scott. And there's no reason to believe Davis will be thrilled with coming to the worst team in the league. New York can use this game to get used to playing with each other and we expect a solid effort from the Knicks here tonight in a blowout win.
SPORTS WAGERS
ANAHEIM -½ +116 over Minnesota
Huge game for the Ducks after a four-game slide that has seen them drop down to 11th in the conference and out of the playoff picture for the first time in a long time. This becomes a pivotal game for them, as five teams are tied with 70 points, just two ahead of the Ducks. Minnesota is one of those teams and it was exactly a week ago that the Ducks went into Minnesota and were buried 5-1. The loss of Jonas Hiller impacted the Ducks negatively in a hard way. They went out and traded for Dan Ellis and it looks like he’ll be between the pipes for this one. One of the only reasons the Wild are even in this race is because of Niklas Backstrom but he’ll get the night off here in favor of Jose Theodore. The Wild have just two wins in their last six games with the other win coming against Edmonton. In the four losses they scored a lousy five goals and the only way they win is if they get outstanding goaltending and the other team does not. That’s not to say that can’t happen here but the bottom line is that Minnesota almost always gets outplayed and one has to figure the Ducks to come out flying for perhaps its most important game of the season thus far. Play: Anaheim -½ +116 (Risking 2 units).
N.Y. RANGERS +168 over Washington
Some of you may have watched the Pens/Caps game on Monday in which TV analyst Pierre McGuire went on for 60 minutes about how much better the Caps are defensively. Ah, Pierre, they were playing a depleted Pens squad that can’t score. His constant browbeating analysis of every mistake during every second of the entire game amounts to nothing more than an auditory garbage can. The constant repeating of the same points over and over is nauseous and his falsely inflated hockey ego has reached epic proportions. Yes, the Caps are playing a little bit better with three wins in four games but they beat the reeling Ducks 7-6, the depleted Pens 2-1 and the struggling Sabres 2-1. Prior to that run the Caps had lost four of five and remain the most overvalued team in the league. Tonight the Caps return home from a five game trip and they’re simply way overvalued again. The Caps have scored two goals or fewer in five of its last six and that’s makes them a giant risk as a big favorite. The Rangers come in with some injuries, most notably to Mark Staal and Marion Gaborik but playing without Gaborik is nothing new. The Rangers have performed well on the road all season long and are coming off a 4-3 win over the Canes. They lost to Philly on Sunday but they were clearly the better team on the ice. Prior to that they lost 1-0 in New Jersey and beat the Kings 4-3. Win, lose or draw, we’re absolutely going with the best of it here in a game that the Rangers most definitely can win. Big overlay. Play: N.Y. Rangers +168 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
New York –7½ over CLEVELAND
Now that the dust has somewhat settled, expect a very strong and energetic effort from the new look Knicks. They have a game with Miami on deck on Sunday but don’t expect them to be looking ahead. The most interesting thing about this matchup and one the Knicks are fully aware of is that they’ve lost to the Cav’s nine straight times, including a game at MSG this season. That’s a huge motivating factor, as they really have to be sick of losing to this host. Cleveland is 2-2 over its last four games including a win over the Lakers, which has them getting too much credit here. Fact is, they’re a putrid team with no defense whatsoever and if all things are equal than the Knicks should be able to name the score here. Knicks had a close call against the Bucks in Carmelo Anthony’s debut and while we hate to lay road points, another close call here is unlikely. Play: New York –7½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).
Jack Jones
San Antonio Spurs -11
The New Jersey Nets are going to be lost on the court tonight after making a trade which sent Devin Harris and Derrick Favors to Utah in return for Deron Williams. I believe the structured San Antonio Spurs who own the league's best record at 47-10 will run away with this one for a double-digit victory. The Spurs will be going for their 20th straight home victory tonight. San Antonio is 26-2 at home and outscoring opponents by 10.6 PPG this season.
The Nets have been absolutely woeful on the road all year, going 4-25 and getting outscored by 9.3 PPG. These teams met once already this season, with the Spurs winning 102-85 in New Jersey. The Spurs are 14-3 ATS in a home game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points over the last 2 seasons. New Jersey is 7-22 ATS versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Bet San Antonio Friday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Golden State Warriors -3
The Hawks are struggling, having lost 3 in a row and 5 of 6. Those struggles are likely to continue tonight against a rested Golden State team that has won 7 of its last 10. The Hawks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the Western Conference, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. the NBA Pacific division and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. The Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when playing with 2 days of rest and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 4.5 points or less. In addition, plays on home teams (GOLDEN STATE) - off a home loss, extremely well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are an impressive 52-19 ATS the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are winning by an average of 6.5 points. Lay the points.
Larry Ness
Detroit @ Wright State
PICK: Wright State -6
Butler, Cleveland St and Wisconsin-Milwaukee are tied atop the Horizon League standings at 12-5 and Valpo (11-6) is also ahead of 10-7 Wright St. The Raiders are 18-12 overall and the school can’t be unhappy with the job Billy Donlon has done in taking over for Brad Brownell, who left for Clemson. The Raiders are on the verge of another 20-win season, which would mark the school’s fifth straight. Wright State will be looking for win No. 19 tonight while also seeking some payback for a December 4 loss at Detroit, when the Titans shot 59% from the floor and dominated the glass, outrebounding the Raiders, 33-16. Detroit has blended three new starters into the team’s rotation this year, freshman guard McCallum (13.9-4.7-4.9) and Fla St transfer Blake (10.3) in the backcourt plus 6-8 freshman Minnerath (10.8-4.4) up front. Returning were guard Simon (13.5-4.2) and the 6-10 Holman (11.6-9.6). Wright St is expected to get guard Tabler (11.6) back for this one (he’s missed the last nine games) and that’s very good news. However, Wright St owns an outstanding guard duo without him, in Duggins (17.7-3.9-2.3) and Evans (14.3-4.0-3.1). The 6-8 Land (8.7-2.9) is Wright St’s only real inside player but now that he’s back healthy, the Raiders are a tough team at home. They are 13-2 SU at Nutter Center this season and while Detroit can be a formidable foe at home, let’s note that the Titans are 1-6 SU over their last seven road games and 1-8-1 ATS over their last 10 away games. Lay the points with the home team.
Lenny Del Genio
Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder
We cashed with the Thunder Wednesday night in a 109-105 road loss to San Antonio where they stayed within a generous seven-point number. We noted in our analysis that it is now rare, at least compared to last season, to get the up and coming OKC team in this price range. Well tonight, the oddsmakers (and the public) have made the same mistake as this number has been bet up. Take the points here as we note the Thunder are 37-17 ATS off a SU loss since the start of last season and 3-1 ATS TY when taking 6.5 or more points. Orlando is incredibly overvalued right now, off an outright loss as 14-point chalk to Sacramento + they've already lost to the Thunder this season, 125-124. Take Oklahoma City.
Michael Alexander
Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors
Play: Phoenix Suns -3.5
PHOENIX is 24-9 ATS (+14.1 Units) versus good shooting teams - making >=46% of their shots - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons
PHOENIX is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) after a combined score of 205 points or more this season
Black Widow
1* on Orlando Magic -6.5
The Orlando Magic are primed for a dominant showing tonight as they host the Oklahoma City Thunder. First and foremost, the Magic are coming off one of their worst losses of the season in a 105-111 setback at home to the Sacramento Kings. That loss prompted Dwight Howard to call out his teammates, saying that if they aren't willing to play hard for 48 minutes then they have no business being on the court. We believe they will respond. They are certainly on plenty of rest as this will only be Orlando's 2nd game in 9 days, while the Thunder will be playing their 3rd game in 4 days. Oklahoma City will also be without two starters since they made a trade to Boston before the deadline yesterday. Starters Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic are both gone, leaving the Thunder short-handed. Nazr Mohammed, Nate Robinson and Kendrick Perkins are the three players they got back in the trade and none of them are expected to play tonight. The Magic are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Orlando is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Take Orlando and lay the points.