Tom Freese
Niagara at Manhattan
Manhattan is 10-17 overall and 4-12 in Conference Play. Guard Rico Pickett scores 17.8 points a game. Guard Darryl Crawford scores 14.5 points and 6 rebounds a game. No other player on the team scores more 7.9 points a game. The Jaspers score just 64.6 points a game and they shoot just 68% from the foul line. The Jaspers are 0-5 ATS off an ATS win and they are 9-25-1 ATS their last 35 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Niagara is 16-13 overall and they are 8-8 in Conference Play. Guard Tyrone Lewis scores 16.7 points a game. Forward Bilal Been scores 13.6 points and 9.9 rebounds a game. Guard Rob Garrison scores 11 points a game. Guard Anthony Nelson 10.2 points a game. Forward Demetrius Williamson scores 9.8 points a game. The Purple Eagles score 72.5 points a game. Niagara is 24-9 ATS their last 33 games as favorites of 0.5 to 6.5 points and they are 4-0 ATS their last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. PLAY ON NIAGARA -
VEGAS EXPERTS
Philadelphia 76ers at Los Angeles Lakers
Lakers are struggling against the spread right now, failing to cover in four straight games. They've only been a double-digit favorite just twice over the last month and failed to cover both times. Philadelphia is 40-21 ATS the last 61 times it has been a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points. LA easily could have lost both games since Kobe came back.
Play on: Philadelphia
LARRY NESS
Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks
PICK: Atlanta Hawks -3
The Mavs completed a huge trade right before the deadline (Butler to Dallas and Howard to Washington being the main guys) and enter this game in Atlanta at 37-21. The Mavs lead the tough Southwest (none of the five teams own a losing record) by 3 1/2 games and still have a chance for the West's No. 2 overall seed, trailing Denver by 1 1/2-games and the Jazz by just a half-game. As for the Hawks, Atlanta trails the Magic by 2-1/2 games in the Southeast and is tied with the Celtics at 36-20, as those three teams are all battling for the East's No. 2 through 4 seeds behind the Cavs. The Mavs have won five straight games (tied with the Bucks for the longest active NBA winning streak), after beating the Lakers 101-96 on Wednesday night. Dallas played that game without Caron Butler (16.7-6.6) who may again miss this game due to illness relating to a negative reaction to a medication. Nowitzki (24.8-7.6) and Terry (16.9 ) led the way vs LA with 31 and 30 points, respectively. While Butler was the "main man" in the trade with the Wizards, the addition of nine-year vet Haywood could turn out to be just as important. After missing all but six games last year due to an injury, the seven-footer is averaging 9.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG in an injury-free season. Marion (11.4-6.5) no longer puts up the same type of numbers he did at Phoenix, but the vet should be highly motivated down the stretch, as should Kidd (9.8-5.2-9.2), as both should know that the Mavs have a real chance to compete come the postseason. The jury is still out on Atlanta's postseason chances but there should be plenty of reason for optimism. Crawford (17.2) was a HUGE addition in the off-season, joining All Star Johnson (21.7-4.7-4.6) and veteran PG Bibby (8.7-4.3 APG) to give the Hawks an outstanding backcourt. The Hawks frontline of forwards Smith (15.6-8.6) and Williams (10.1-4.1) plus center Horford (13.8-9.4) was already the envy of most front offices, for both its talent and youth. Atlanta has shown its toughness this year vs the West, going 18-8 overall, including 10-1 at home. The Hawks are 22-6 SU and 18-10 ATS at home this year (104.6-95.5) and I believe will rise to the challenge tonight. When these teams met in Dallas back on December 5, the Hawks walked away with an 'ugly' 80-75 win, as Atlanta shot just 36.0 percent (including 2-of-13 on threes) and the Mavs just 37.3 percent. This will be a much-better played game but the outcome will be the same. Lay the points with Atlanta.
JR O'Donnell
Orlando Magic vs. New Orleans Hornets
Play: New Orleans Hornets +4.5
We note that New Orleans is riding a 3-1 SU/ATS run at home following an 0-6 ATS bad bad run during January. The New Orleans Hornets own a 6-3 ATS mark as a home underdog this season even with out all everything C Paul, The Hornets have been playing with some swagger lately & the Hornets fill it up from the charity stripe @ a 78% rate. Look @ this quick stat: Underdog is 9-2-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings & ORL are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 vs. NBA Southwest. We are not stats & trends players & this play is based on defense, free throws & public perception.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Knicks/Wizards UNDER 205
The books have set the bar too high for these two teams tonight. Washington is 17-8 Under when the total is greater than or equal to 200 this season and it comes in having played to the Under in 9 of its last 11 games. Plus, the Under is 7-1 in the Wizards' last 8 games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400. New York has been rattling off the Overs lately, but it has still played to the Under in more games this season and the Under seems to be a good fit tonight when you consider that it is 8-0 in the Knicks' last 8 games as a road underdog of 4.5 or fewer points. We've seen the last three meetings between these two teams come in Under the number with total scores of just 185, 202 and 192 points. We'll take the Under again tonight.
Jimmy the Moose
Detroit Pistons vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Detroit Pistons +10½
The Pistons are having another season to forget and the end of the year can't come soon enough for this club. Tonight they face a Nuggets team that they have had success against and they are hoping that trend continues tonight. There aren't many stats that support the Pistons in most games that they play but look for them to keep tonight's game closer than the line would indicate. Detroit is 7-20 SU on the road but 11-15-1 ATS. Detroit has covered the line in 2 of their last 3 games coming into this one.
Denver was on the road to face the Golden State Warriors on Thursday night and will be the more tired of the two clubs tonight. The Nuggets are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games played with 0-day rest between action. Denver is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400. In their last 17 games vs. a team with a SU losing record they are 3-13-1 ATS. The Nuggets are 7-17-1 ATS in their last 25 games as a favorite.
There is no doubt that the Nuggets are the better team by far in this one but look for them to play down to their competition tonight. The Pistons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 trips to Denver. In the last 16 meetings overall between the clubs the Nuggets are 3-13 ATS. Look for the trend to continue as the Pistons cover the line again tonight.
DUNKEL INDEX
San Antonio at Houston
The Spurs look to take advantage of a Houston team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. San Antonio is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3)
Game 801-802: Cleveland at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.342; Toronto 115.803
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 8 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5 1/2; 202 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5 1/2); Under
Game 803-804: New York at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: New York 110.954; Washington 110.256
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 1; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 2; 205
Dunkel Pick: New York (+2); Under
Game 805-806: Orlando at New Orleans
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 124.625; New Orleans 115.080
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 4 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-4 1/2); Under
Game 807-808: Minnesota at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.520; Oklahoma City 120.963
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 7 1/2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 9 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9 1/2); Over
Game 809-810: Dallas at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.531; Atlanta 120.538
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3; 195
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over
Game 811-812: Portland at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.656; Chicago 125.114
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 9 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3 1/2); Over
Game 813-814: Charlotte at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 112.841; Memphis 118.852
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 8 1/2; 188
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3; 194
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3); Under
Game 815-816: San Antonio at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 122.520; Houston 114.852
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 3; 196
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-3); Under
Game 817-818: Detroit at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.202; Denver 122.570
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 7 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 10; 201
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+10); Under
Game 819-820: Utah at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 121.477; Sacramento 117.259
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 4; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Utah by 7 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7 1/2); Under
Game 821-822: LA Clippers at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 111.166; Phoenix 118.554
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 9 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+9 1/2); Over
Game 823-824: Philadelphia at LA Lakers
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 118.177; LA Lakers 126.132
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 8; 199
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 11; 197 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+11); Over
NCAAB
Iona at Fairfield
The Gaels look to take advantage of a Fairfield team that is 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games as a home favorite. Iona is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Gaels favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Iona (+3)
Game 825-826: Yale at Dartmouth
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 48.042; Dartmouth 41.727
Dunkel Line: Yale by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Yale by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Yale (-3 1/2)
Game 827-828: Princeton at Cornell
Dunkel Ratings: Princeton 56.841; Cornell 63.847
Dunkel Line: Cornell by 7
Vegas Line: Cornell by 11
Dunkel Pick: Princeton (+11)
Game 829-830: Pennsylvania at Columbia
Dunkel Ratings: Pennsylvania 43.159; Columbia 48.058
Dunkel Line: Columbia by 5
Vegas Line: Columbia by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbia (-3 1/2)
Game 831-832: Brown at Harvard
Dunkel Ratings: Brown 47.753; Harvard 59.454
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Brown (+15 1/2)
Game 833-834: Butler at Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 68.116; Valparaiso 56.113
Dunkel Line: Butler by 12
Vegas Line: Butler by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-8 1/2)
Game 835-836: Siena at Rider
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 63.378; Rider 55.109
Dunkel Line: Siena by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Siena by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Siena (-6 1/2)
Game 837-838: Canisius at Loyola-MD
Dunkel Ratings: Canisius 49.485; Loyola-MD 55.614
Dunkel Line: Loyola-MD by 6
Vegas Line: Loyola-MD by 4
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-MD (-4)
Game 839-840: Iona at Fairfield
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 57.329; Fairfield 55.139
Dunkel Line: Iona by 2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 3
Dunkel Pick: Iona (+3)
Game 841-842: Niagara at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Niagara 56.983; Manhattan 49.416
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 3
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-3)
Game 843-844: St. Peter's at Marist
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 52.009; Marist 44.972
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 7
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 9
Dunkel Pick: Marist (+9)
Game 845-846: Idaho State at Portland State
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 43.451; Portland State 54.772
Dunkel Line: Portland State by 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland State by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland State (-8 1/2)
Game 847-848: Northern Arizona at Sacramento State
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 49.209; Sacramento State 43.056
Dunkel Line: Northern Arizona by 6
Vegas Line: Northern Arizona by 2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (-2)
Game 849-850: Weber State at Eastern Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 55.400; Eastern Washington 51.980
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Weber State by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+5 1/2)
Insider Angles
The Chicago Bulls have become scoring machines lately, probably saving the job of Coach Vinny Del Negro in the process, while the Portland Trail Blazers are starting to return to their fine offensive form of earlier this season now that Brandon Roy is back.
The Bulls have scored at least 100 points in five of their last six games, impressively scoring at least 115 points in four of those contests. They are averaging a whopping 110.4 points in their last five games on a very good 46.8 percent shooting, and they have raised their home average to 97.9 points per game for the season.
The Blazers were struggling for a while as they were depleted with injuries, but most of their players have now returned, with Roy being the most notable. Portland has topped 100 points in two straight games and in four of their last six contests. Sure, they are still on a 7-2 Under run, but again, most of that was with a short roster.
Besides, these teams are accustomed to having shootouts against each other, as the Over is 5-1 in the last six head-to-head meetings. This includes their first encounter this season, when the clubs combined for 220 points in Portland back in November.
Look for the dominance of the Over in this series to continue here.
NBA Friday Pick: Blazers/Bulls Over 193
Craig Trapp
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Play: Under 198
Neither one of these teams have been lighting up the over this year. Even better lately the LAL have gone under in 7 of last 8 games and PHI has gone under in 4 of last 6 games. LAL look to be adding a smothering defense to what is already the best offense. PHI have been playing much better lately winning 6 of last 10 games. To win games PHI has to win with defense and rebounding as they don't have the athletic talent to outscore teams like the Lakers. Tonight both teams struggle to put the ball in the basket early driving this one to a fairly easy under.
Scott Rickenbach
Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors
Prediction: Toronto Raptors
UPDATE regarding this play as it was written up earlier in the week, even with Chris Bosh expected to miss we still like this play. The Cavaliers are off of a big road win last night while the Raptors are off of a tough home loss Wednesday night. The rested Raptors also will be facing the Cavs without Shaquille O'Neal which helps minimize the impact of Bosh being out. There is a lot of home dog value with Toronto here. Keep in mind, we went against the Cavaliers in a similar tough spot right here last Friday and we were rewarded with a huge win on the Bobcats. This time we go against the Cavaliers with the Raptors. Toronto catches Cleveland off of a big TNT affair at Boston on Thursday night. How much will the Cavaliers have left in the tank after that one? Keep in mind Cleveland lost their first three games after the All Star Break and that included both road games heading into last night’s game at Boston. Tonight’s game will be the Cavaliers 6th game in 9 days. The wear and tear will be catching up with the Cavs in this spot. Conversely, the Raptors will be playing just their 5th game in 10 days and Toronto had won five of six games heading into their Wednesday night game hosting the Trail Blazers.
The Raptors get the benefit of being off Thursday so this is just the third game for the Raptors in 7 days and all the games have been at home. When these teams met in Cleveland last month, Toronto lost that game by just eight points and the Raptors had 11 more shot attempts from the field. In other words, with a lower shooting percentage for the Cavs (likely for the road team here), the Raptors would have come out on the right end of the scoreboard. The Cavaliers are unlikely to hit 53% of their shots again. The Raptors were 21-7 at home entering Wednesday’s game with Portland and the Cavaliers were just 19-10 on the road as they entered last night’s game at Boston. As long as the Cavs continue to be overvalued, we will continue to step in on the other side! Consider a small play on Toronto in the NBA Friday.
Timothy Black
Butler vs. Valparaiso
Play: Valparaiso +9
The Crusaders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games overall. Also, the Crusaders are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Valpo is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings with Butler as well.
Tony George
Memphis -3
The 4th road game for Charlotte who is 1-7 ATS their last 8 and they are short handed with injuries and Memphis is in revenge mode after a road loss to the Bobcats. Short number here and Charlotte has lost all 3 road games and so far SU and ATS and a 4th straight road game is always a reason to go against that road team, Memphis gets the better of them tonight at home.
Tony George
Charlotte vs. Memphis
Play: Memphis -3
The 4th road game for Charlotte who is 1-7 ATS their last 8 and they are short handed with injuries and Memphis is in revenge mode after a road loss to the Bobcats. Short number here and Charlotte has lost all 3 road games and so far SU and ATS and a 4th straight road game is always a reason to go against that road team, Memphis gets the better of them tonight at home.
John Ryan
Utah Jazz vs. Sacramento Kings
Play: Sacramento Kings +7
5* graded play on Sacramento as they host the Utah Jazz set to start at 10:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Kings will lose this game by fewer than 7 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 56-17 ATS for 77% winners since 2004. Play on home teams off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite and playing with 2 days rest. This system has also gone an impressive 34-8 ATS for 81% ATS winners over the past 3 seasons. The expected pace of play works to the King’s advantage noting they are just 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in a home game where where the total is between 200 and 204.5 points over the last 3 seasons. Kings have also been excellent investment as home dogs. Note that they are 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) as a home underdog of 6.5 to 9 points since 1996. Take the Kings.
Freddy Wills
Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -3
The Mavericks are coming off arguably their best home victory of the season where they have struggled many times. They beat the Lakers and now they go on the road to face the Hawks who are eager to get some more confidence. The Hawks are also on 1 day rest and hold a huge advantage in the situation ATS 17-10 vs. the Mavericks 11-18 ATS. The Mavericks are also due for a let down as they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 following a SU win. They are also 3-13 following an ATS win so I hope you haven't bet them back to back. The Hawks on the other hand are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as home favorites .5 to 4.5 and 29-14-1 ATS overall in their last 44 home games as favorites. Mavericks are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 trips to Atlanta. The addition of Butler and Haywood should help the Mavericks again, but Butler is a bit banged up and it's not like the Hawks are not aware of what these two could do facing them already twice this season. Haywood has been good averaging 16ppg and 9.5 rebounds, Butler however has not going 8-23 from the field in two games combined for just 20 points and 15 rebounds. Hawks are 22-6 at home winning by a margin of 9ppg. They are 18-8 against the west this year and 10-1 vs. the West at Philips Aena. The last time these two faced the Hawks did not play well shooting but still came away with the win in Dallas. Dallas had a lot of trouble with the athleticism of the Hawks and I think the same will hold true for tonight.