TEDDY COVERS
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings
PICK: Utah Jazz -7
Sacramento is a mess. The Kings are 4-23 SU in their last 27 ballgames, notching just two SU home wins in the last two months at half empty Arco Arena. They’ve played five games since the All Star break. They’ve lost all five, including non-competitive defeats at the hands at fellow bottom feeders like the Pistons, Clippers and Warriors. The last four defeats have all come by double digit margins.
Kings head coach Paul Westphal has used 24 different starting lineups already this season – this team has been unable to develop any continuity at all from one week to the next. Expect starting lineup #25 tonight, because the injury bug has started to strike once again. Leading rebounder Jason Thompson hurt his back against Detroit earlier in the week, unable to suit up tonight. Key low post reserve Jon Brockman is also injured, leaving the Kings very short on healthy bodies in the paint to defend the likes of Carlos Boozer, Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap.
The Jazz continue to be pointspread machines, entering tonight’s game with the NBA’s best ATS record. Utah is not a public team -- they don’t have any superstars and they don’t play on national TV every week. That has allowed them to retain their value for months on end. They’ve won and covered seven straight road games dating back to mid-January, winning six of those contests by seven points or more. Expect another comfortable victory here. 2* Take Utah.
BEN BURNS
Slovakia @ Canada
PICK: Under
After winning with the Canadian men's hockey team (7-3 win over Russia) on Wednesday, I successfully backed the Canadian women in yesterday's 2-0 gold medal win over the Americans. The Canadian men are back in action this evening, with a trip to the gold medal game on the line. This time, their opponent will be Slovakia. I expect Canada to finish on top, once again. That said, after their big win over Russia, I don't feel that the Canadians offer us much/any line value.
However, I do feel that the big win over Russia has provided us with some solid value on the total. Indeed, we're now seeing an O/U line of 6.5, which is very high for an elimination game. Yes, the Canadians are coming off an impressive seven goal performance. That was partly due to some shaky Russian goal-tending though, as Nabakov was horrible between the pipes. Let's not forget that the Canadians did have a low-scoring (3-2 win) game vs. Switzerland.
As for Slovakia, the Slovaks shutout Latvia (6-0) and beat Russia by a score of 2-1. They also lost to the Czech Republic by a score of 3-1. So, while their most recent game was a 4-3 win vs. the Swedes, they are certainly capable of being involved in some low-scoring games. Consider a play on the UNDER 6.5 goals.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +7
System Play: Plays on home teams (SACRAMENTO) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite, playing with 2 days rest, are 56-17 ATS the last 5 seasons and 34-8 ATS the last 3 seasons. Take the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Charlotte Bobcats +3
We'll make a small play on Charlotte catching points tonight as plays on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after having lost 4 of their last 5 games, well rested team playing 6 or less games in 14 days, are 67-30 ATS since 1996. That's a 69% win rate over the last 14 years. You also have to like the fact that Charlotte is 16-4 ATS after having lost 4 of its last 5 games over the last 2 seasons and it is winning in these spots by an average of 2.6 points. Charlotte has won 3 straight over the Grizzlies and we'll look for it to make it 4 straight tonight.
Jack Jones
Pistons/Nuggets UNDER 203
After a high-scoring shootout against the Golden State Warriors last night, look for the Nuggets to return home a bit tired. This will affect their shooting, especially against a Pistons' team that actually plays defense unlike the Warriors. The Pistons have allowed less than 100 points in 11 of their last 15 games overall. But the Pistons have failed to reach 100 points offensively in 15 of their last 18 games overall. Detroit is scoring 92.3 points/game this season. The last 3 meetings in this head-to-head series have all seen 200 or less combined points.
This play also falls into a system that is 52-19 (73%) to the UNDER since 1996. This system tells us to bet the UNDER on all teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 (DENVER) - extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days against opponent tired team - playing 6 or more games in 10 days. These are actually two tired teams with the Pistons playing 6 of the last 10 days and the Nuggets on a back-to-back. Go with the UNDER.
Black Widow
1* on Atlanta Hawks -3
It's hard not to like the Hawks at home tonight laying a small number against the Mavericks. Atlanta has been one of the best home teams in the league, sporting a 22-6 home record and winning by an average of 9.1 points/game. The Hawks have won their last 2 meetings with the Mavs, including an 80-75 road win back in December earlier this season. This is the ideal letdown spot for Dallas after beating the defending champion L.A. Lakers on Wednesday night. That was easily Dallas' biggest win of the season. The Mavs are 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Mavericks are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS win. The Hawks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Take Atlanta and lay the points.
Sac Lawson
Princeton +11 vs Cornell
I fully understand there are a lot of people out there that are in love with this Cornell squad. Me personally, I have them as a top 75 team, which is pretty damn good for an Ivy League school. That being said, I have Princeton has a top 125 team, the Tigers are no slouch themselves. First thing that stands out to those of us that know some things about this conference is: How is Cornell going to cover double digits in a game played in the 50's?! Princeton LOVES to play games as low scoring as possible, they are one of the top 5 slowest teams in college basketball, and they limit teams by packing the lane and forcing the shot clock to run down on every possession. What I've noticed is that Princeton slows it down even further, the more talented their opponent is. They know they can't score with the majority of the teams in this conference, and they know they are going to win games through defensive intensity and nothing else.
Don't get it twisted here, Princeton is the team on revenge. They lose to Cornell by 3 points earlier in the season, and I think a lot of people are ignoring the revenge angle because they think Cornell is so much better that it won't matter. Fact is, Princeton knows they can play with Cornell, they proved it to themselves in that last matchup. If anything, I see them being ultra fired up at a 2nd chance to beat these guys. In reality, if Princeton can steal a win here, they have a shot at the conference title! Princeton WILL be full motivated, and will definitely be playing some of their best basketball tonight.
I really look forward to a slow contest between these two teams tonight, obviously Cornell's success is based off their ability to make jump shots, and Princeton is one of the best teams in the nation at eliminating offensive efficiency. Let's back Princeton for 1 unit!
TOR +6 (-120) vs CLE
Yes, I am buying half here.. Mainly because 6 is a huge number in the Association... Okay, on to the good stuff..
I absolutely love this game, and I think Vegas is giving us a huge indication of which side we should be on. Chris Bosh is OUT for Toronto tonight, Cleveland just DESTROYED Boston last night, and yet we get Cleveland laying just 5.5 points. No doubt the public will be all over the road team here, but Toronto is the only play...
The Raptors have covered both games against Cleveland this season, including an outright win early in the year. At 21-8 on the year, you've simply got to respect Toronto's home court advantage, and you've got to love it even more with Cleveland coming in having played Boston last night. We talk about this all the time in the forums... It's one thing to play a back-2-back, it's a completely different story to play a back-2-back when the first game is one of the top teams in the league. No doubt Cleveland was psyched for that game last night, and it's very likely we'll see a bit of a letdown tonight. Cleveland is just 5-9 ATS in b2b's this year, and this spot looks especially difficult.
I'm a true believer that games like Cleveland played last night are absolute disasters for Joe Public. From that game forward we'll see the public absolutely pounding the Cleveland side for a solid week, just based on the fact that they were able to witness Cavs dominance. There is definitely value in fading the Cavs over the next few games, while Vegas uses that public perception against the public. No doubt I'm concerned with Bosh being out, but this opening line gives me large enough indication that Cleveland will be complacent to be able to ignore the injury. Let's back the Raptors at home, and expect them to win outright.
Goodfella
Atlanta -3
Dallas is coming off probably their BIGGEST win of the season in their last game---in a game where I backed them as a premium selection--over the LA Lakers--The team is rolling along since the trade with the Wizards & no doubt about it they are a much tougher, deeper, and better ballclub now. They have won 5 straight games (4 at home) and they look like legit contenders in the Western Conference, no doubt. The HAWKS are playing their 2nd game at home off a road trip--and they limped to a 6 pt win over the Timberwolves as 12 pt favs on Wednesday Night--failing to cover the spread--like MOST teams due in the spot they were in--not only was it the ol' "1st game back home" off a roadie---clearly they were looking ahead to tonights game ON ESPN vs a RED HOT Dallas club. Atlanta is a VERY STRONG HOME team, as their (22-6 SU) mark indicates--and they are even more impressive (18-10 ATS) at HOME--We all know the covering maching that the Mavs have been on the ROAD---and in this instance--that coupled with the HUGE WIN on NATIONAL TV over the BELOVED Lakers--I believe we are getting GREAT VALUE laying just 3 points with the HAWKS at HOME in this spot tonight. Yes, the Hawks beat the Mavs AT Dallas (80-75) as 5.5 pt dogs, WAY BACK on Dec. 5th--but clearly the Mavs are a whole different team, and I truly dont hold much merit to a "revenge" angle tonight--For ME, I truly find the VALUE on the HAWKS in this spot tonight. Also, the Mavs are just (2-5 ATS) this season, avenging a home loss--so we can see that they aren't so dangerous in these "spots". Dallas is just (3-12 ATS) playing on one day of rest--& they are (1-4 ATS L/5) ROAD games, vs a team with a winning home record--& the Hawks are (8-2 ATS L/10) games as a home favorite of -.5 to -4.5. Bottom line for me here---is I really see great VALUE on the HAWKS in this spot--as I look for this team to put up a huge HOME effort on ESPN tonight--I think this game sets up very nice for Atlanta to get the cover tonight--lay the 3 points with the HAWKS tonight guys.