Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Cleveland Cavaliers +8
The Magic had lost 4 in a row prior to Wednesday's 6-point win over the Wizards, and that victory isn't enough to pull me off the Cavs here.
The Magic have won 7 of 11 at home but are just 4-7 ATS in those games, including 1-6 ATS in their last 7. It is also worth noting that the Magic are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite, 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a win.
Cleveland is 5-7 on the road but 8-4 ATS in those games, including 5-1 ATS in their last 6. The Cavaliers are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog, 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a loss. We'll take the points.
Rocketman
St Peter's vs Siena
Play: St Peter's +7.5
St Peter's is 22-8 ATS since 1997 on the road when the total is 120 to 129 1/2. St Peter's is 17-6 ATS since 1997 and 6-1 ATS last 3 years against poor offensive teams scoring less than 64 points per game after 15 or more games. St Peter's is 30-9 ATS since 1997 and 9-2 ATS last 3 years against poor offensive teams scoring less than 64 points per game. Siena is 3-10 ATS since 1997 and 2-9 ATS last 3 years when the total is 120 to 129 1/2. Siena is 1-11 ATS last 3 years against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less after 15 or more games. Siena is 2-15 ATS last 3 years against poor offensive teams scoring 64 points per game or less. St Peter's beat Siena earlier this year 51-44 back in December. I'm expecting a similar low scoring close game here tonight where the dog should cover easily. We'll recommend a small play on St Peter's tonight!
Steve Janus
Memphis Grizzlies +9
My money is on the Grizzlies to go into Oklahoma City and at least keep this game within double-digits. Memphis comes into this game off a 100-97 win at home over the Nuggets and a 96-77 beating at Atlanta last night. The Grizzlies have been a very streaky team, and they way they played last night has me thinking they could possibly win this game outright.
Oklahoma City has already went into Memphis and beat the Grizzlies twice this season, you can bet Memphis will be looking to return the favor tonight. Anytime you get a good team in a double revenge situation that is getting close to double-digits, you have to jump on it. These are the type of games in which the Grizzlies thrive. Memphis is 18-6 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 70%) over the last 2 seasons.
If you are worried about the Grizzlies playing the second of a back-to-back, don't be. Memphis is 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 0 days rest.
Brad Leeb
Winnipeg vs. Florida
Play: Florida
The Winnipeg Jets are in Florida to play the Panthers at the BankAtlantic Center. Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 155-moneyline favorites versus the Jets, while the game's total is sitting at 5½. The Jets are currently in 10th place in the Eastern Conference. They are 4-5-1 in their last 10 games with a 9-14-4 record on the road. Winnipeg won its last outing, a 2-1 result against the Tampa Bay Lightning last night. The Panthers are in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. They are 3-3-4 in their last 10 games with a 12-5-7 record at home. Last time out for Florida, they were a 4-2 winner as they battled the Washington Capitals at home. The difference is going to be the Jets playing in back-to-back games. The Panthers play well at home, and they have won 2 of 3 versus the Jets this season. Bet the Florida Panthers on the Moneyline.
Jack Jones
Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 193
The Memphis Grizzlies have been a great UNDER bet all season. In this rivalry with the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight, you can bet points will be hard to come by. Look for both teams to get after it defensively as this is a rematch of the Western Conference semifinals.
Memphis has been an UNDER machine on the road this year. The Grizzlies are 11-1 to the UNDER in all road games. They are scoring just 86.7 points/game and allowing 90.4 points/game for an average combined score of 177.1 points/game away from home.
The Thunder have also been a solid UNDER bet this season. Oklahoma City is 12-9 to the UNDER in all games. They are giving up a mere 93.7 points/game at home this season. OKC is coming off perhaps their best defensive outing of the season as they beat the Dallas Mavericks 95-86 on the road.
Memphis is 7-0 to the UNDER in their last 7 games overall. They have combined with their opponents to score 189 or less points in six of those seven games. The one exception was a 100-97 overtime victory over the Denver Nuggets which was tied 91-91 at the end of regulation for 182 combined points. Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.
Larry Ness
Brown +7.5
Princeton opened the new year on a three-game winning streak but the Tigers have dropped two of their last three, all Ivy League games. All three were on the road and with tonight's game at Brown and tomorrow's at Yale, last year's Ivy League champs will have opened this season with FIVE straight conference games away from home (no favors from the schedule-makers). Princeton owns arguably the Ivy's best player in the 6-7 Hummer (17.5-7.5) as well as last year's Ivy playoff hero, senior guard Davis (13.7). However, no other player is averaging more than seven points. Brown is just 7-14, including 1-3 in the Ivy League with its lone win coming over 4-16 Dartmouth (0-4 in Ivy League). PG McGonagill (14.4-4.6-5.7) leads a solid group on the perimeter, joined by Toledo transfer Albrecht (11.3), Matt Sullivan (8.2), whose brother Peter led the team in scoring last year at 14.2, plus Herbert-Harris (6.2). Up front, the Bears have no one the quality of Hummer but the 6-8 McCarthy (10.8-7.8) is a solid player and he's joined by the 6-7 Walker (4.4-4.3) plus the 6-8 Ponticell (4.0-3.8). I'm taking the home dog in this one.
NHL Predictions
New York Islanders +130
The New York Islanders won their first game back from the All Star break 5-2 in Carolina. The Islanders have now won 4 of their last 6 and have gotten points in 5 of the 6. The Islanders are 20-22-7 on the season and 9-11-3 on the road (3-1 on the road in their last 4). Ottawa is coming off a 4-3 loss in Boston where they were leading 3-1 at one point. The Sens have now dropped 4 straight games. Although they were home for the All Star Break the Sens have played 6 straight road games, and 9 of their last 10 away from home. Mix in the handful of Senator players who were taking part in the busy All Star weekend and we can assume that this Ottawa team may be a little burnt out. Ottawa is 27-20-6 on the season and 14-9-1 at home. These two teams haven't met this season, but split last year's four meetings each winning a game on the road. New York has scored 3 or more goals in 6 of their last 10 games and have looked pretty solid over that span. I look for the Islanders to take advantage of the Senators coming off of 6 straight road games, with a good chance at taking tonight's game. Take the Islanders at +130.
Kings / Blues Under 5
It is rare to have to lay that much chalk on a total of 5, but there is good reason for it. Tonight we have two very low scoring teams both with solid goalies in net. The Kings have won two straight and are 25-16-10 on the season and 10-5-6 on the road this year. They are averaging just 2.14 goals per game on the road, but just 2.29 against. The Blues dropped two in a row before the break, and enjoyed an extended break as tonight is their first game back. St Louis is 29-13-7 on the season and a spectacular 21-3-4 at home this season. They are averaging 2.89 goals per game at home, and just 1.71 against. Over their last 5 games the Blues are scoring an average of 1.80 while allowing just 1.40 against. St Louis will go with Jaroslav Halak in net, who just as well could have been an All Star goalie with his 14-8-5 record, 2.04 GAA and .918 SV%. He has allowed just 12 goals against in his last 9 starts. Jonathan Quick is 22-12-9 with a 1.88 GAA and .934 SV% and is expected to start tonight with the Kings playing @Carolina tomorrow. Overall the UNDER is 27-11 for the Kings and 26-12 for the Blues. On the road the UNDER is 11-4 for the Kings. The UNDER is 3-1-1 in the Blues last 7 home games. Note that the UNDER is also 4-0-1 in their last 5 meetings, and 6-1-1 in their last 8 meetings in St Louis. Both teams have a very defensive style of play and top goalies between the pipes. This one should be a very low scoring game, and I'll lay a bit of chalk on the UNDER 5.
Black Widow
1* Pacers/Mavericks UNDER 191.5
Oddsmakers have set a very inflated number in this non-conference game Friday between the Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks. Just looking at the season averages of both teams, it's clear that my opening sentence is true. Indiana is averaging 94.5 points and giving up 91.2 points for a combined total average of 185.7 points. Dallas is 14-9 to the UNDER in all games this season, and they've been even more low-scoring than the Pacers. The Mavericks are averaging 94.3 points and giving up 90.8 points for a combined total average of 185.1 points. According to season averages, we are receiving a little over 6 points of value with this UNDER tonight. Take the UNDER 191.5 points here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Denver/ Lakers Over 196.5: Really wanted to stay away from this one as it looked too easy, but why over analyze this one. It should easily hit 200. Denver home games have averaged 201.3 ppg and they have put up 103.5 ppg in those games, while the Lakers allow 98.4 ppg on the road. Denver has allowed 98.8 ppg at home, and while the Lakers have struggled to score this year they have averaged 106 ppg in their last 2 games. 200+ in this one.
Phoenix/ Houston Under 200: The Suns scored a ton of points in New Orleans the other night, but this is still a struggling team that has averaged just 90.7 ppg on the road this year, while the rockets have allowed just 93 ppg at home. Houston puts up 100.3 ppg at home, while Phoenix has allowed a respectable 96.9 ppg on the road. I don't see either team hitting 100 in this one.
Boston/ New York Over 184: I know i said take the Under in any Boston home game, but im going against that here. NY's last two games have averaged 203 ppg and are starting to look like the uptempo Knicks of last year. Boston id still without Rondo, but their offense has been a bit better of last as they have averaged 93 ppg in their last 5 games. Let's also note that we Play the Over in all games where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and an excellent defensive team (<=88 PPG) (BOSTON) off a blowout win of 20 or more vs an average defensive team (92-98 PPG). This play is 44-14 since 1996.
2 UNIT PLAY
ORLANDO -7 over Cleveland: The Cavs are just 7-19 ATS the last 26 overall in the series and 2-8 ATS the last 10 in Miami. Orlando has struggled some this year, but I feel they will get it going tonight vs a Cavs team that has won just 2 of their last 8 games overall. The Magic hit 109 points vs Washington the other night and that mnay have jumpstaerd this offense. They should win by DD here.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland State/ Loyola-Ill Over 116: Eight of Cleveland State's last 9 games have hit 117 points or more, with those games averaging 133.9 ppg. Loyola's games have not been that high scoring, but their home games have still averaged 117.4 ppg on the year. The Vikings are the much better team here an they will get this game at their pace and that should translate into 125= points in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
SIENA -7.5 over St Peters: St Pete can't score as they have averaged just 59.8 ppg on the road and 58.4 ppg in their conference games. Siena averages 66.1 ppg at home on the year overall, including 71.8 ppg in their last 5 at home. Overall the defensive numbers look even, but St Peters allows 71.2 ppg on the road, while Siena has allowed just 63.2 ppg at home. Big edges all around for the home team as they win this one easily.
2 UNIT PLAY
Penn +2 over YALE: PENNSYLVANIA is 13-3 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons, while YALE is 9-25 ATS in home games after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games since 1997.
1 UNIT PLAY
Niagara/ Fairfield Under 134.5: NIAGARA is 10-1 UNDER in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons while FAIRFIELD is 17-7 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.