Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, February 4,2011

Marc Lawrence

Miami Heat at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

With Miami off a same-season revenger with the Magic and with a same-season revenge match against the Clippers on deck the Heat finds itself in a letdown/look-ahead mode tonight in Charlotte. Can you blame them? They've already defeated the Bobcats twice this season, including a 14-point win in this building just over a month ago. In fact, it's been a long and winding road for the Heat of late as they had dropped four of their previous five games outside of South Beach prior to last night's win at Disney World. This neat stat from our database further suggests that the Heat may experience a little more trouble in the second of this back-to-back roadie: in franchise history, the Bobcats are 40-28-6 ATS as home dogs with same-season revenge, including 19-7-1 ATS when taking 4 or more points. Toss in the Bobcats' recent 11-4-1 ATS mark in this series and we're left with a live home dog in this sweet spot tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Charlotte.

Tom Freese

Los Angeles Clippers at Atlanta Hawks
Prediction: Atlanta Hawks

The Clippers are 19-29 straight up this year. The Clippers are 16-37 ATS their last 53 road games vs. a team with a team with a home win percentage of over 60%. The Clippers are 4-9-1 ATS their last 14 games off a double digit loss in their last game. Los Angeles is 0-4 ATS after allowing 100 or more points 100 or more points in their last game. Atlanta is 31-18 straight up this year. The Hawks are 6-2 ATS their last 8 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS when playing with one day of rest.

Nick Parsons

Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins
Play: Buffalo Sabres

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the visitors: The Sabres are 23-21-5 this year, including 12-9-4 away from friendly confines; this will be the first game back from the break for this team, having last won on January 25, a 3-2 OT victory in Ottawa. Buffalo is 9-3-1 its last 13; Ryan Miller headed into the break with a 4-0-0 stretch with a 2.37 GAA. On the other side of the ice: The Penguins are 33-15-2-2 this year; on Wednesday they beat the Islanders 3-0. This team continues to win without Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in the lineup, but I believe will have its hands full tonight against a highly motivated and "revenge minded" Buffalo team. Bottom line: In fact the Sabres play with "double revenge" tonight, having lost 1-0 on November 24th and 5-2 on December 11th to the Penguins. Great line value here.

Terron Chapman

Orlando Magic vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards +5.5

The Orlando Magic won’t have much time to recover from a 104-100 defeat to the Miami Heat Thursday night at Amway Center in Orlando. The Magic will have to regroup in a hurry as they head to Washington for a date with a Wizards team glad to be home and eager for a win against a division foe.

The Wizards return home after a 97-89 defeat in New Orleans concluded a winless road trip (0-4). It was the Wizards 25th consecutive loss on the road to open the season. Friday’s meeting will be the third meeting between the two this season. The Magic won the first meeting, 112-83, in Orlando and took the second match-up, 100-99, on November 27th at Verizon Center. The Magic have won the last four in the series, although they come into Friday’s meeting a wounded team both mentally and physically. This will be the first meeting since the Wizards traded Gilbert Arenas to Orlando for Rashard Lewis. Lewis has averaged 19.9 points and 6.4 rebounds in 16 career games versus Orlando. Lewis’ scoring average against the Magic represents his highest career scoring average against any opponent.

The Miami Heat led from start to finish in Thursday’s defeat behind 51 points from Lebron James. The Magic put six players in double-figures despite shooting only 42%. A late rally fell short as the Magic looked outclassed from the tip. Brandon Bass’ absence won’t show up in the box score but his presence was definitely missed.

You’ll often find value fading a team such as the Wizards, playing their first home game after an extended road trip. However, we actually consider the Wizards--in this scenario--an exception to the rule. When you’re as bad as the Wizards have been on the road, you look forward to returning to your own gym. In fact, the Wizards are actually quite decent at home, going 13-10 at the Verizon Center heading into Friday’s contest.

The Magic enter searching for answers, having lost three of their last four with all three losses coming on the road. Playing a second game in as many nights, against a division rival, on the road, is a lot to ask of any team. The Magic have a rematch with the Celtics on deck and if they’re caught looking ahead, the Wizards will be ready to make them pay. Look for an inspired effort from the host to be the difference; take the points. Play on the Washington Wizards (+) the points for 1 unit.

Gregg Price

New York Knicks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -3½

Take the 76ers tonight, as they are really playing some good ball. Both teams are much improved, but I like the 76ers balance. The 76ers have covered 24 of their last 33 games, 7 of 8 vs a team with a winning record, and 7 of 10 vs the Knicks IN Philly. The Sixers are 7-3 their last 10 games with the 3 losses by a combined 9 points. Sixers get the home win tonight. 76ERS.

Jim Feist

Jazz at Nuggets
Pick: Jazz

Utah is not a bad road team, .500 away from home, and they've turned things around after a terrible stretch, 2-2 SU/ATS the last 4 games. And Denver isn't tearing it up, on a 1-2 SU/ATS run the last three games. They were favored at New Jersey, but lost by 16, giving up 115 points. The Nuggets are 12-28-6 ATS in their last 46 games following an ATS win and 6-17-4 ATS in their last 27 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. An excellent spot for the big dog. Play the Utah Jazz.

EZWINNERS

Toronto Raptors -3.5

Toronto has lost thirteen straight games, but I look for them to end that skid here. The Raptors have not lost fourteen games in a row since a franchise worst seventeen game skid back in 1997, but a visit from the Timberwolves might be just what they need. Minnesota is just 2-22 on the road this season and the Raptors will be looking for some quick payback for a 103-87 loss at Minnesota last week. Toronto's loss to the Timberwolves last week snapped a twelve game winning streak in the series, but I expect them to get back on track in this game. The Raptors played a horrible game in Minnesota last week as they shot only 33.7 percent (34 of 101) which was their season low, and the 67 shots missed represented the most in an NBA game this season. Toronto is 11-2 against the spread in the last thirteen meetings between these two teams and the Timberwolves are just 1-7 against the spread in their last eight games as an underdog. Lay the points.

Bryan Leonard

LA Clippers at Atlanta
Play: LA Clippers

The Clippers are a different team than earlier in the season posting a 9-5 mark the last 14 times out. In the first game of a long road trip we expect Los Angeles to be at their best. They are off a non-competitive home loss to the Bulls and face Miami, Orlando and New York after tangling with the Hawks. The second half of the trip lets up big time but they have to be able to be competitive against the upper echelon of NBA squads on the road. Atlanta beat the Clippers by 9 earlier in LA but this young team has gained a great deal of confidence since that meeting.

Off a double digit victory and with a slew of Eastern Conference opponents on deck we can't see the Hawks being inspired tonight. They play tomorrow night in Washington so it's likely the starter's minutes will be limited against the Clippers. As bad as Washington has been on the road they are a credible force on their home court. While Atlanta has dominated this series on the scoreboard as of late they haven't had any edge against the spread. We expect the Clippers to give the Hawks all they can handle tonight.

Sean Murphy

St. Peter's @ Niagara
PICK: Over 123

St. Peter's rolls into Friday's game at Niagara playing its best basketball of the season. The Peacocks have won four games in a row both SU and ATS, but I'm more interested in their 6-1 run to the over.

This is a team that is loaded with offensive talent, but one that has struggled to put it together at times this season. Note that the Peacocks are shooting just 40% as a team.

Lately that talent has come together and produced in a big way. St. Peter's has scored at least 77 points in four of its last six games overall. Included in that stretch was a 77-57 win against the same Niagara team they'll face tonight.

Defensively, the Peacocks are arguably the toughest team in the MAAC. However, they have been pushing the pace a lot more often lately, and as a result, they've seen their defensive scoring average creep up a little. They've allowed at least 60 points in three of their last five games - the only two teams they held under that mark over that stretch were Manhattan and Marist, the conference's two weakest squads.

Niagara continues to battle through a tough season, with just one win in 11 MAAC games. There's no question, the Purple Eagles have been playing better lately, covering the number in four of their last five games.

Despite averaging just over 55 points per game on 37.9% shooting over their last five contests, there is reason for optimism. Marvin Jordan and Anthony Nelson continue to carry the offense, but they're no longer alone, as Kashief Edwards has returned to the lineup. After being held pointless in his return on January 28th, Edwards contributed 18 points in Sunday's narrow two-point loss at Siena.

Niagara was able to go on the road and score 57 points against St. Peter's without Edwards in the lineup on January 15th. I'm confident the Eagles can at least break 60 points tonight, something they've already done in three of four conference home games this season.

The over has cashed in each of the last three meetings in this series dating back to the start of last season. At the current number, the oddsmakers haven't made any sort of adjustment to the total, despite their first matchup this year reaching 134 points. Take the over.

MTi Sports

Portland Trail Blazers at Indiana Pacers
Prediction: Indiana Pacers

The Trailblazers are 0-9 ATS (-8.4 ppg) after a loss in which they allowed at least 50% from the field and 0-8 ATS (-10.3 ppg) as a dog with at least one day of rest after a game on the road in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. Indiana is 5-0 ATS (+9.9 ppg) at home when facing a Western Conference team they lost to in their first match-up of the season. Take the Pacers.

JR O'Donnell

Pennsylvania -11

We are rolling with the "Penn Quakers" Friday night @ the Vaunted Palestra, The Quakers are the play.... These 8-8 Penn Quakers are ready to crush somebody and the 5-13 "Boys" from the White Moutains and Connecticut River are the team that they will pound. The Quakers are quietly are good ball club!! Huge Matchup problems for the BIG GREEN.

Zach Eggleston for 1 down low! These Dartmouth Big Green boys got housed by the Columbia Crew 66-45 last game! The Quakers are led by coach Jerome Allen who in my opinion is the best Penn Quaker to ever wear the uniform. These Quakers are a terrific 143-56 advantage in the series. The Quakers are on real nice ATS ROLL.... 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall & Dartmouth checks in @ 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.... The Quakers get after them tonight..... 15 to 20 point home win.

Nelly

LA Clippers / Atlanta Over

Atlanta has been a very strong 'under' team at home while the Clippers have been a strong 'over' team on the road so something will have to give for tonight's match-up. The Clippers have won six of the last ten games, playing better ball in the last month but a brutal February schedule is waiting with almost exclusively road games. The Clippers have scored at least 99 points in seven of the last ten games and on defense Los Angeles has allowed triple-digits in six times in that span. As a result the Clippers have been on a strong 'over' run but this total is kept in check by the solid defensive numbers for the Hawks. Atlanta has been a bit hit of miss of late with a 6-4 mark in the last ten games but the offense has topped 100 points in six of those games. Atlanta has allowed at least 100 points in five of those match-ups and four of the past five games overall have played 'over' for the Hawks. For the season the Clippers are allowing over 106 points per game on the road and the Hawks have actually been a worse defensive team at home than on the road in terms of points per game allowed and defensive shooting percentage. These teams met just over a month ago with the 'over' winning easily in a 107-98 Hawks win in Los Angeles and while this total has been adjusted up, it is still a reasonable number. Each of the last four meetings between these teams has played 'over' and the 'over' is 10-3 in the last 13 games that Los Angeles has played as an underdog. Both teams are well rested and with the Clippers entering this game off an ugly loss, they should aim to dictate the pace and push the tempo. The Hawks have allowed at least 98 points in four of the last five home games so the early season 'under' trends in Atlanta are fading.

Telly

I'm going to roll with Penn -11 tonight. In the NBA I'm going with the Suns +2.

SPORTS WAGERS

VANCOUVER -½ +105 over Chicago (REG)

What strikes us as curious is that after leaning to Carl Crawford for the better part of the last three months, and he’s played well, the Blackhawks are turning to that aging stiff, Marty Turco for this one. Why? Turco started the game against the Jackets right after the break, allowed four goals and he’s right back at it tonight. Turco’s GAA (3.06) is almost a full goal higher than Crawford’s (2.19). Perhaps the Blackhawks don’t want to burn the kid out and figure now is the time to slow down with him so that’s he’s rested and ready for a playoff push. In any case, we love the fact that Turco is in net. The Canucks have had nothing but grief against the Blackhawks over the past three seasons, losing to them twice in the playoffs and losing to them twice in three attempts this season. One has to figure the Canucks to be completely stoked for this one. Vancouver has won four consecutive games and earned a point in seven straight and 29 of its past 32 games and Roberto Luongo is 13-0-5 with a 1.83 goals-against average over his last 18 contests. This is a game the Canucks want badly; perhaps more than any other this season because the last time the Blackhawks were here on Nov 20th they buried the Canucks 7-1. Turco in net seals the deal. Play: Vancouver -½ +105 (Risking 2 units).

Edmonton +190 over ST. LOUIS (REG)

The situation is a good one for the Oilers in that the Blue Notes have been off for nine days while the Oilers played on Wednesday and they looked pretty good in a home loss to the Kings. Edmonton has some healthy bodies back and they get another one back tonight in Jordan Eberle. The Oilers are going to break a few hearts down the stretch providing the stay healthy because this is a determined and offensively gifted squad with a ton of speed. They play in Columbus tomorrow and we expect them to win at least one of these two games and perhaps both. Should they lose here, we’ll come right back on them tomorrow. The Blue Notes also get some bodies back tonight, as Andy MacDonald returns and he adds some much-needed offense. However, he’s returning from a concussion and missed 24 games so chances are he’s going to need a game or two to get his timing back. St. Louis has just two wins over its last 12 games and they’re just not good enough to be laying 2-1 with. Again, this is a favorable situation for the Oilers because St. Louis has been off for nine days and in a similar situation last night Minnesota went into Colorado and beat an Av’s squad that was playing their first game off the break. Throw in this juicy tag and you have nothing but value here. Play: Edmonton +190 regulation only (Risking 1 unit) Play: Edmonton +173 OT included (Risking 1 unit).