SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA –7½ over L.A. Clippers
The Clip Joint has been very competitive at home but get them on the road and it’s a whole different story. L.A. has just three road wins in 18 tries with most of them being of the blowout variety. This is a one-man team and if you contain Blake Griffin to his season average of 23 or thereabouts, the Clippers virtually have no shot on the road. Also note that the Clop Joint play Miami on Sunday and that might be of more interest to them. Meanwhile, the Hawks are loaded and they’ll also get Marvin Williams back after he served his two-game suspension. Atlanta has at least six options to go to and pose huge matchup problems for this intruder. The Clip Joint always get smoked at this venue and this one isn’t likely to be any different. Play: Atlanta +7½ (Risking 2 units).
SACRAMENTO +4½/+162 over San Antonio
The Spurs played 48 minutes of intense basketball last night in Los Angeles, led virtually the whole way and then literally needed a last fraction tip-in to win by a point. The Spurs are now an amazing 41-8 and how that has occurred is a mystery. Yes, they’re good but they’re not 41-8 good and we could see them run into a whole lot more resistance in the final three months of the season. The Spurs are small, they’re aging and after that huge win last night and no urgency whatsoever tonight they could get beat by an energetic Sac team. The Kings have won three of its last five games with only losses over that stretch coming against the Celtics by five and the Cats by five. Sac’s three wins over that stretch have come against the Lakers, Hornets and Blazers, who have a combined record of 92-58. The Kings should definitely win the battle of the boards and when you combine that with their good play of late and the Spurs inevitable letdown, the makings of an upset are in place. Play: Sacramento +4½ (Risking 1.08 units to win 1) Play: Sacramento +162 (Risking 1 unit).
WASHINGTON +5½/+201 over Orlando
The Wizards are a perfect 0-25 on the road but thankfully they return home tonight where they’ve compiled a 13-10 record. They return from a four-game trip but they’re in a good spot to beat the Magic, a team that is losing confidence and games. Orlando hosted the Heat last night and lost by four points, which looks good on paper but they were down by 21 with six minutes to go before they hit six or seven three-pointers in a row to make the game close. It wasn’t. The Heat did what they wanted and the Magic had no answers. Now, the Wiz aren’t the Heat, not even close but for the Magic, this game is sandwiched between last night’s game against Miami and Sunday’s game in Boston. That game on Sunday will have a huge following, as it comes just before the Super Bowl with the whole world watching. This game is merely an inconvenience for the Magic and they’re unlikely to respond. The Wizards are getting better. The emergence of Trevor Booker adds more size and more game to this team. JaVale McGee and Kirk Hinrich are both back in the line-up and suddenly the Wizards are a whole lot deeper. They played in Orlando back on Nov 27 and lost by a single point. Now they’re in an absolute perfect spot to pull off the upset. Play: Washington +5½ (Risking 1.04 units to win 1) Play: Washington +201 (Risking 1 unit).
PHOENIX +115 over Oklahoma City
Some teams have difficulty with certain teams and that’s the case with the Thunder when they face the Suns. The last three games these two have played have all come in Oklahoma City where the Suns won outright twice including their only game this season as a 9½-point pup. The Suns have beaten the Thunder in eight of the last 10 meetings outright. Furthermore, the Thunder has dropped four in a row on the road and while they have an impressive 31-17 overall record, they’re a risky road favorite because they play careless ball on the road. The Thunder take a ton of low percentage shots, its defense is average at best and they turn the ball over way too often to trust in this spot. The Suns are coming on big time after a rough stretch. They’ve now won three in a row and eight of 11 and that includes a 17-point win over the Celtics and a two-point win over the Hornets. They have the Suns number and they absolutely have a better chance to win than the guest. Wrong side favored. Play: Phoenix +115 (Risking 2 units).
ROCKETMAN
Utah vs Denver
Play: Denver -10
Denver is a very strong 21-5 SU at home this year where they are scoring 110.7 points per game this year. Denver is 7-1 SU and 6-1 ATS at home vs Utah last 3 years. Jazz are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss. Jazz are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss. Jazz are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. Jazz are 8-21-1 ATS in their last 30 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5. Jazz are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Jazz are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest. Jazz are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Jazz are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. Jazz are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Jazz are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games. Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. Jazz are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog. Jazz are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Nuggets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite. Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Northwest. Nuggets are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games. Nuggets are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5. Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Nuggets are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Home team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Favorite is 29-11-3 ATS in the last 43 meetings. We'll recommend a small play on Denver tonight!
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Orlando Magic -5.5
It can be tough to get back up after a loss like the Magic endured to Miami last night, but they have no choice. They have lost 2 in a row and Boston is on deck. Washington checks in having lost 6 in a row, and all 6 of those defeats have come by at least 7 points. Unfortunately for the Wiz, there's no chance Orlando will overlook them tonight. Orlando only defeated Washington by 1 point when the teams last faced off in November. The Magic are a much better team now, and that narrow win will have them very focused this evening. Orlando has been an extremely reliable road fave in this range. In fact, the Magic are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Orlando has also taken care of business against weak competition. In the second half of the season the last two seasons, the Magic are 11-2 ATS when playing against bad teams (Win Pct. 25% to 40%), defeating these foes by an average score of 111.6 to 94.3. In addition, Washington is just 4-15 ATS in the second half of the season the last three seasons when playing at home against a team with a winning record. It is losing to these teams by an average score of 105.7 to 94.9. Take the Magic.
Wunderdog
Chicago vs. Vancouver
Play: Under 5.5
The Canucks are tough to bring down at home, and the answer lies between the pipes. Be it Cory Schneider or Roberto Luongo, the Canucks have allowed just 19 goals on home ice in their last 11 played. I'm sure that facing the defending Stanley Cup Champs will only add to the adrenalin flow tonight. The Blackhawks are off a win and they have been nearly flawless to the UNDER following a win as they are 10-1 to the UNDER after posting the W. The Canucks are riding a five-game toot to the UNDER after scoring 5 or more in their previous game, as well as a 5-1 nod to the UNDER in their last six posted as home chalk from -151 to -200. The UNDER gets my call in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Saint Peters vs. Niagara
Play: Saint Peters -5
St. Peters won the first match up by 20 points. They are clearly the better team and the numbers indicate the difference. St. Peters is 18-6 ats vs losing teams and 10-2 ats vs teams who average 65 ppg or less. In conference play this season they are 8-3 ats and have covered 6 of 7 when favored. Niagara is 1-9 vs winning teams and 3-7 ats in those games. When they take on good defensive teams that allow less than 65 ppg they are just 1-5 against the spread. Look for St. Peters to get the win and cover tonight.
Joe Gavazzi
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Denver Nuggets -10
Every NBA team goes through their ups and down. In December, Denver was struggling with trade rumors surrounding ‘Melo and Billups. Since that time, however, they’ve gone on a 9-2 ATS run on this court. Now it’s Utah who is struggling. They’re 9-12 SU, 4-16 ATS of late and come off a 1-point home loss to Houston on Wednesday night. Their 3 best offensive players, D Will, Okur, and Kirilenko are either doubtful or out. No way to play them, even at this inflated price.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Nets/Pistons OVER 188
Plays Over on all teams when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points (Detroit and New Jersey in this case) after a game in which they failed to cover the spread, provided both teams have winning percentages between 25% and 40%, are an impressive 46-19 (70.8%) the last 5 seasons. We have seen teams fitting into this situation combine with their opponent to score an average of 193.4 points. In addition, Detroit is 17-6 Over in home games this season. We have seen an average of 201.1 total points scored in these contests. Lastly, the Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series and 5-1 in the last 6 meetings in Detroit. Bet the Over.
Jack Jones
Charlotte Bobcats +5.5
This is a tough spot for the Miami Heat. The Heat will be playing the second of a back-to-back after winning in Orlando 104-100 last night. That was a primetime game on National TV, and they'll certainly have a hard time getting up to play the Charlotte Bobcats after it. This is a Bobcats team that is quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now. When Paul Silas took over as head coach, they have been a completely different team. They are 10-6 SU & 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Charlotte is in eighth place in the Eastern Conference and took a big step toward solidifying itself as a playoff contender by completing a 4-2 road trip. The Bobcats, who had only two wins in their previous 13 road games, averaged 106.5 points in the victories. This team is having fun playing basketball again, getting up and down the floor at a faster tempo under Silas. Miami's win at Orlando last night sets them up for a system that is clearly not in their favors. This system is 81-45 (64%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) - off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog, playing on back-to-back days. The Bobcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog. Take Charlotte Friday.
Jordan Haimowitz
Iona vs. Fairfield
Play: Over 131
Haimo's Hot Notes:
Iona and Fairfield combine to score 143 points per game.
Iona and Fairfield combine to allow 126 points per game
Thats an off-balanced line of +7 towards the over.
Both teams shoot the three well while each team likes to run the floor and open the game up. This is one of those games that shooting percentage wont matter much as each team will get off plenty of shots.
Over clears easy.
Steve Janus
1* Nuggets -9
Denver has been playing outstanding on their home floor of late, and should have no trouble crushing the Jazz, who are expected to be without Deron Williams and Andrei Kirilenko. Utah has lost six straight on the road, and most of them haven't even been close.
Denver is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite, and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Utah is just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Info Plays
3* Kings +4.5
Reasons why Kings will cover:
1) San Antonio just played a tough game on the road against the Lakers last night, and are playing their third road game in the last four days. The Kings have been playing top teams exceptionally well of late, and while they might not win, I think it will be a very close game.
2) Sacramento is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, and are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 games following a S.U. loss.
3) Sacramento is 233-184 ATS after having won 2 of their last 3 games since 1996. Their last three games have been against the Lakers, Hornets, and Celtics.
Teddy Covers
Oklahoma City @ Phoenix
PICK: Oklahoma City -2
The Suns have won three in a row heading into tonight’s game, but their positive momentum must be tempered by the circumstances of those three victories. First, Phoenix beat a Celtics team that was clearly looking ahead to their matchup against the Lakers in their next game. Then, the Suns were extremely lucky to hang on for a two point win against New Orleans in a game they did their absolute best to blow in the final minute. And their win over Milwaukee on Wednesday came without Andrew Bogut on the court for the Bucks, on a night where Scott Skiles’ squad simply couldn’t make a shot, a dismal 31% shooting effort.
The betting markets are affording Phoenix some respect as a result of the positive momentum from these last few victories. But the Suns remain a flawed team, despite their recent uptick. They’ve been beaten on their home floor 10 times already this season, typical of the sub .500 squad that they are. And the teams that have been beating Phoenix on this floor -- Charlotte, Portland, Memphis, Miami, Philadelphia and New York in recent weeks – are no better than the Oklahoma City squad the Suns will face tonight.
The Suns have no defensive answer for Kevin Durant, on another one of his patented scoring tears. Russell Westbrook is every bit the All Star at the point that Steve Nash is at this stage of his career. The Thunder are a great road team; in the top quartile of the league in road victories this year, just like they were last year. The Suns outshot the Thunder 57.5% to 42.9% when these two teams last met, but they only escaped with a three point victory. Don’t expect that type of shooting disparity tonight, leaving the road favorite as a clear choice for this bettor. 2* Take Oklahoma City.
Larry Ness
L.A. Clippers @ Atlanta
PICK: Atlanta -7.5
The Clippers have been on the West Coast for a long time. The Clippers have played 15 home games since Dec 20 with just five road games (at Sac, GS, Por, Dal and Hou). However, they now begin an unusually long 11-game road trip opening in Atlanta. Remember, the Clippers opened the year by losing their first 11 road games, then won three straight but have followed by losing their last four. The Clippers leave home facing some key have health issues. Leading scorer Eric Gordon (24.1-4.5 APG) is out indefinitely and LA is just 2-5 SU without him in the lineup. Compounding Gordon's absence is the fact that PG Baron Davis injured his back Wednesday against Chicago. Davis returned to the game, but was obviously not as mobile after he was hurt. Of course, these injuries are in addition to the ongoing absence of center Chris Kaman (10.5-7.1), who is lately being linked to trade rumors. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s Joe Johnson (20.6-4.2-5.5) comes in red-hot averaging 29.0 PPG on 58% shooting the last five games. The Hawks are now healthy with all of the team’s “Big 6” is good shape. Crawford (15.7-3.4 APG) and Bibby (9.6-3.7 APG) join Johnson on the perimeter with forwards Smith (16.2-8.9) and Williams (10.9-4.8) surrounding center Horford (16.2-9.9) up front. Lay the points
Dave Price
1 Unit on Jazz/Nuggets OVER 207
Plays Over on road teams when the total is 200 to 209.5 (UTAH) - after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games, if they are up against a division opponent, are 35-14 the last 5 seasons. Teams fitting into this situation are combining with their opponent to score an average of 213.2 points. In addition, plays Over on road teams when the total is greater than or equal to 200 (UTAH), if they are out to avenge a road loss to an opponent of 10 points or more, provided that opponent is off a win of 10 points or more over a division rival, are 29-7 since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have combined to score an average of 217.9 points. Take the Over.
Black Widow
1* on Washington Wizards +6
The Orlando Magic are likely to suffer an emotional hangover from their loss to the Miami Heat last night. It's always tough on any team to play the second of a back-to-back, but that will especially be the case tonight. Orlando missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer in the closing seconds after coming all the way back from 23 points down in the 4th quarter. They used up a ton of energy trying to pull off the comeback, and there is a very good chance they'll come out flat tonight and have nothing left for the finish. What's amazing is that Washington is just 13-35 this season, but they have a winning home record! The Wizards are 13-10 at home this season while the Magic are just 13-12 on the road, including 9-15 ATS. Getting six points here is an absolute gift from odds makers, and we'll take it. Washington is playing on 2 days' rest so they'll clearly be the fresher, more energized team when they hit the hardwood tonight. The Wizards are 34-16 ATS (+16.4 Units) after 6 or more consecutive losses since 1996. The Magic are 4-9 ATS when playing on 0 days' rest, and 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes of the previous day. The rest factor and this potential letdown spot for Orlando provide us with some excellent value on the home team tonight. Take the Wizards and the points.