Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday February 8

Jimmy Boyd

Yale +1

The biggest edge I see for Yale tonight is on the glass where they are grabbing 36 boards per game and 11 offense rebounds compared to 32 and 8 for their opponents. Penn on the other hand is grabbing only 31 and 7 while allowing opponents to grab 36 and 10. Yale is 16-5 ATS on the road against teams being out rebounded by 4+ per game the second half of the season dating back to 1997 and 29-14 ATS against teams being outscored by 4+ points per game. Penn is 19-39 ATS at home when playing a sub .500 team the second half of the season since 1997 and 7-18 ATS at home after a loss by six points or less. You wan to play against home teams where the line is + or - 3 when that team has lost five or six of their last seven games, and the team is winning 20% or less less of their games on the year. This situation is 41-17 (71%) over the last five seasons. Penn fits because they only have two wins in their last seven and are 4-16 on the year. Neither one of these teams is very good, but Penn is even worse than Yale so I'll go with the road team.

Rob Vinciletti

Brooklyn Nets vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards

Washington fits a nice system here that has won 13 of 16 times and plays on home dogs of 4 or less with 1 day of rest, that scored 100 or more as a home dog in their last game and shot 45% or higher from the field, vs an opponent that scored 90 or more as a road dog and shot 45% or less. The Wizards are in off their come from behind win vs the Knicks and take on a Brooklyn team that needed multiple overtimes to beat them 115-113 the last time they played in a game where the Wizards were without John Wall. That loss sets the Wizards up in this little Nugget. Washington is 12-0 ats with home loss revenge and 5-2 straight up as a home dog of 3 or less. The Nets have lost 20 of the alst 28 in February, so we will back Washington here.

Bruce Marshall

Utah St. vs. San Jose St.
Pick: Utah St.

San Jose hasn’t won a game in six tries (and has covered only twice) since star G James Kinney (20.6 ppg) was suspended in mid-January. But Spartan HC George Nessman will get no sympathy from USU counterpart Stew Morrill, who lost his first (G Preston Medlin, 16.3 ppg) & third (F Kyisean Reed, 12.1 ppg)-leading scorers to injury in January. It took a couple of weeks, but Morrill seems to have made adjustments, as recent wins at Idaho & Seattle featured Ags constantly feeding the ball into the blocks to rugged 6-10 Oklahoma State transfer Jared Shaw, who has scored 21.3 ppg last three outings as the Ags’ new go-to threat.

Jesse Schule

Utah St. vs. San Jose St.
Pick: Utah St.

The Aggies are coming off back to back road victories, both by a margin of double-digits. They blew out Seattle by 22 points at Key Arena last Saturday, and prior to that they defeated Idaho by a score of 77-67.

Friday they will be facing an opponent that is coming off a pair of losses to both Seattle and Idaho. In fact, the San Jose State Spartans have lost seven straight, beginning with a loss against the Aggies on January 11.

The Aggies have won each of their last 10 meetings with San Jose State, and that includes back to back road wins, both by double digits in their last two visits to San Jose.

Neither of these two teams have been a good bet recently, with Utah State covering the spread only three times in their last 10 games. The Spartans though are even worse, covering the points only twice in their last 10 overall.

The Aggies appear to have turned things around after losing four straight, they have not only won their last two, but covered the points in each of those victories.

The Spartans are winless since they suspended their leading scorer James Kinney for violating teams rules. Kinney was averaging over 20 points per game, but is listed as suspended indefinitely, and hasn't played in any of the Spartans last seven games (all losses).

Utah State is only giving up a handful of points on the road tonight, and given the current form, as well as past history with these two teams, it would be no surprise to see the Aggies win in a blowout.

Sean Murphy

L.A. Lakers vs. Charlotte
Pick: Charlotte

The Lakers might be able to bounce back from last night's blowout loss in Boston, but a victory won't come easy in Charlotte on Friday night. As bad as the Bobcats have been in recent years, they've actually managed to take three straight meetings from the Lakers here in Charlotte, and an outright win isn't out of the question tonight. The 'Cats limp home following an 0-5 road trip but what else is new? They've won only five of 24 road games this season. I think that winless trip is playing a role in setting this line. The Lakers do come in having won six of their last eight games, but as we saw last night, this is still very much a flawed basketball team - one that's dealing with some serious chemistry issues. The good news for the Bobcats is, they're as healthy as they've been all season. While Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is expected to miss Friday's game, that's not a huge loss, as he had been slumping anyway, scoring only 16 points combined in his last four games. The Lakers have bigger issues, with Pau Gasol and Jordan Hill sidelined, and Dwight Howard dealing with a shoulder injury. Howard will play, but he won't be 100% healthy. This is an important spot for the Bobcats, as they need to stop the bleeding before heading back on the road for a game in Philadelphia tomorrow night. We're getting a healthy cushion to work with, and fading the Lakers hasn't been a bad decision at all this season.

David Chan

Portland vs. Houston
Pick: Portland

Portland is 25-24 SU and 22-25-2 ATS; it's coming off a 105-99 loss at Dallas as a 5.5 point dog on the 6th. The Rockets though have struggled vs. the Blazers so far this year, losing 95-85 at home on November 3rd, and 119-117 in Portland on November 16th.

LaMarcus Aldridge has been key to his team's success vs. Houston, averaging 28.0 points over those two contests, while Damian Lillard has averaged 23.5.

Nicolas Batum would explode for 35 in the second victory.

Note that Portland is 13-8 ATS this year when playing against a team with a winning record.

Houston is 27-24 SU and 27-23-1 ATS; it's coming off a 114-108 loss at Miami as a 7.5 point dog on the 6th.

James Harden would score 36 points, grab 12 boards and dish out seven assists, but it simply wasn't enough. And I believe this team suffers another letdown tonight.

Note that Houston is just 7-13 ATS this year after allowing 105 points or more.

I believe this matchup continues to be a difficult one for the home side, and while the outright win is certainly not out of the question, I'll recommend grabbing the points in this situation!

Ryan James

Siena / Loyola-Maryland Under 124

Siena is 18-5 favoring the under versus good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game over the last 3 seasons. Loyola Maryland is 9-2 favoring the under versus poor shooting teams that are making less than 42% of their shots over the last 2 seasons. Siena is also 8-0 favoring the under in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. When Loyola Maryland is a favorite they are 14-5 to the under over the last 2 seasons. Siena's head coach Mitch Buonaguro is a defense oriented coach. When Siena is coming off a home loss they are 10-1 to the under after loss with Buonaguro as the head coach. He is also 18-5 to the under when facing good ball handling teams that are committing less than 14 turnovers per game. This may seem like a low total at first glance, but the way these teams patch up they will be lucky to score 115 points in this game so this should stay well under the 124 point posted total.

Dave Cokin

Utah State at San Jose State
Pick: Utah State

This has been a frustrating season for Stew Morrill, as Utah State has been beset by injury issues that are still lingering. But after losing four straight contests, the Aggies got back on track last weekend with a road sweep and they should pick up another win here. This is Utah State's only game all week, so the focus should be there. San Jose State was doing okay at 9-6, but then they lost guard James Kinney, by far their best player, and the Spartans have not win since he was suspended. I'm not sold on Utah State right now, although if they can get an intact lineup together come conference tourney time, they'll turn into a very tough out. But San Jose State has turned into the ultimate brick shooting squad since losing Kinney. They're a brutal 127/396 from the field over the last seven games, which works out to 32%. I don't see things suddenly improving to any extent against the Aggies. Make it Utah State minus the points for tonight's free opinion.

Jim Feist

Los Angeles Lakers at Charlotte Bobcats
Pick: Charlotte Bobcats

The aging Lakers have nothing but problems, finding out this week that Pau Gasol is on the shelf for 4-6 weeks. They don't play any defense and are in the second of a back to back spot, playing at the rival Celtics last night. The Lakers are 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 games vs. a team with a losing record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Not surprising, this old bunch is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on no days rest lacking depth. The Lakers are 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings, including 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Charlotte. Play the Bobcats!

Jason Sharpe

Cornell +4.5

It can be a very tough spot for road teams in the Ivy League in the month of February. A lot of times these clubs are asked to go on the road on Friday night and then turn right back around and play again the next day on Saturday. We have an example of that here with Harvard here in this game. Though 4-0 to start league play so far, the Crimson haven’t looked real good thus far. Coming off their big league title win last season, Harvard has the target on their back this season in the Ivy League. They have needed overtime in two of their last three league games and won by just three against Yale in the other, with all three games being at home. It’s obvious early on that this Harvard team isn’t as good as the one that we seen dominate this league last year. Cornell looks to be a sleeper pick in the Ivy League this season. They are in the all-important third season under head coach Bill Courtney this year and look like they could be vastly improved. The Big Red already have two nice league road wins to their credit so far and show a decent resume with a win over 113th-ranked Western Michigan earlier this year and just a four-point loss to 119th-rated St. Bonaventure as well. Harvard comes in rated 114th overall and falls in line with those two other teams that Cornell went toe to toe with early on this season. Look for a close game here as Harvard may not be as focused here as they need to be, as they must turn right around and head to Columbia right after this game and play Saturday. Cornell kept things close last year when these two hooked up at Cornell, losing by just four points in that game. They won’t be intimidated at all here. Take Cornell and the points in this one.

Bob Balfe

Nets +1 over Wizards

For starters the Nets are a better basketball team and all we are asking from them is to win the game. Washington has 13 wins on the year. What are the chances of a horrible basketball team winning 3 straight games when they have such a bad record. The odds are against them. This team is the best in the NBA against the spread which really amazes me since they are the worst team in the league. Spread numbers always have away of evening themselves out in the long run for teams. Take the Nets.

Wunderdog

Los Angeles at Miami
Pick: Under 195

There will be plenty of firepower on the court for this one, especially if the reports that Chris Paul will be back in the lineup for the Clippers. I don't think that type of game will materialize here. The Clippers have been very assertive on the defensive end when playing the elite on the road. They held Denver to 92, Memphis to 73, Chicago to 89, Brooklyn to 86, and San Antonio to 87. The list is equally long for the Heat when facing quality opponents at home, holding Chicago, Oklahoma City, Utah, Golden State, Atlanta, and Brooklyn to under the century mark. The fact is that the Heat are 4-0 to the UNDER in the last four games vs. greater than .600 teams. Take the UNDER in this one.

King Creole

CHARLOTTE +6.5

BOBCATS: 8-1 ATS last 9 games vs Lakers.... 5-0 ATS as non-conf HD's 5 > pts vs any opp off a DD SU loss...
LAKERS: 0-6-1 ATS last 2 seasons on the road with NO REST vs all non-conference opponents...

1-10 ATS last 12 months: All FRIDAY road favorites of -7 pts vs the Boston Celtics (Lakers) vs any opponent off BB SU losses (CHAR)...

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Golden State/ Memphis Over 191: I have been playing allot of Unders in Memphis home games, but I feel this is a good spot to play an Over. Memphis has struggled in their last 2 games on the defensive end. allowing 99.5 ppg over that stretch. Actually they have allowed 96 points or more in their last 5 games and now take on a Golden State squad that is 7th in the league in scoring at 101.2 ppg, including averaging 105.6 ppg in their last 5 games. Defensively the Warriors have been very poor of late as they have allowed 99 point or more in 8 of their last 11 games, allowing 106.1 ppg over that stretch. The Warriors have also allowed 100+ points in 6 of their last 7 away from home, allowing 104 ppg away from home overall. The Memphis offense is nothing special, but they should put up a bunch of points on this defense. Memphis will try and slow down the game, but this is a team that is out of sorts right now and I feel that GS can get the pace more to their liking. Look for this game to flirt with 200 points.

UTAH -4 over Chicago: The Bulls may be in need of the All-Star break, as their defense looks a bit tired, after allowing 111 and 128 points in their last 2 games. This is the 6th game on this trip and I playing in back to back games in high altitude won't help this tired team. Utah is a solid 19-5 at home and they have won 4 out of their last 5 overall, with all 4 wins being by 5 or more points. Chicago is in a terrible spot as hey are a very tired bunch, playing a rested team on no rest and in high altitude at that. This has the makings of a double digit Utah win.

Atlanta/ New Orleans Under 194: Very low scoring series of late. In the last 5 meetings between these team there have been no more than 184 points scored in any game, with those games averaging just 173.8 ppg. The Hornets offense has taken off of late, but Atlanta plays pretty good defense at home, where they allow just 96.7 ppg, including allowing just 92.3 ppg in their last 3 games at home. Offensively the Hawks are nothing special. They do average 99.7 ppg at home, but they come in averaging just 95.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall. The Hornets comer in having a rough go of it on offense of late as they have averaged just 93.6 ppg in their last 7 games overall. I don't expect this to be an uptempo game as Atlanta is 24th in the league in shots per game, while New Orleans is 27th. Both teams are struggling on offense right now, so I do expect either team to hit 95 in this one.

LA Clippers/ Miami Under 195: The Clippers have had some scoring problems of late and that is mainly due to their injury woes. They should be getting Paul back for this one, but Griffin is still listed as questionable. and even if both are in there I don't expect a ton of minutes from them, especially with the break coming up. Still the Clippers come in averaging 89.8 ppg in their last 5 games and the heat have been very solid on defense of late as they have allowed just 90.8 ppg in their last 8 non-OT games. We know that Miami can Score some points, but the Clipps are a solid defensive squad as they have allowed just 93.4 ppg overall and 94.3 ppg on the road. I like to go with the under in some of these huge nationally televised games and I will do so again here. I don'r expect either squad to hi 95 points in this one.