Jeff Alexander
Washington Wizards PK
The Wizards, which are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games, continue to show value tonight at home where they have won 7 of 8. 5 of these wins have come against the Thunder, Hawks, Bulls, Clippers and Knicks so the Wizards certainly have what it takes to beat Brooklyn, which only defeated them by 2 points back on Jan. 4 before John Wall made his return.
Dave Price
Golden State Warriors +3.5
The Grizzlies have struggled since moving Rudy Gay. They are 1-3 since the trade, and I expect their struggles to continue against a highly-motivated Golden State squad. The Warriors were embarrassed at Houston and then kicked at Oklahoma City a night later. As if those losses don't provide enough motivation, the Warriors have dropped each of the season's first two meetings with Memphis. It's time for revenge. Golden State is 22-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons. It is 14-4 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last 2 seasons and 10-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in 2 or more consecutive games over the last 2 seasons. It is also worth noting that the road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. Take the points.
Jack Jones
Suns/Thunder Over 205.5
I look for a shootout tonight between the Phoenix Suns and Oklahoma City Thunder. When you look at the recent meetings between these teams, it's easy to see that there is some value with the OVER tonight folks.
Seven of the last nine meetings between Oklahoma City and Phoenix have seen 206 or more combined points. In those nine contests, they have combined for an average of 214 points/game. That's 8.5 points more than tonight's posted total.
Oklahoma City has really been playing in some high-scoring games of late. In their last three games, the Thunder and their opponents have combined to score an average of 215.0 points/game. OKC is averaging 108.4 points/game at home this season, and it will control the tempo playing at home tonight.
The Thunder are 9-1 to the OVER after scoring 110 points or more 2 straight games this season. Phoenix is a perfect 7-0 to the OVER in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. Bet the OVER in this game Friday.
Steve Janus
Atlanta Hawks -4.5
While the Hornets are coming off a nice win at home over the Suns on Wednesday, this team has not been playing well of late. New Orleans is just 2-6 over their last 8 games and just 1-5 over their last 6 road games. The Hornets have been a decent play ATS, despite their inability to win games, but that was because they were being undervalued and getting a lot of points. Atlanta just beat the Grizzlies 103-92 at home and have won 4 of 5 at home. The Hawks should be in control of this game from the opening tip and easily cover this small spread.
Joe Gavazzi
Dartmouth +12
I believe Columbia is the third best in the league (behind Princeton and Harvard). They got an anticipated split with Cornell, yet stumbled at Penn in the only Ivy game where the Quaker’s Dougherty was at full strength. They then went to Jadwyn where they extended Princeton to the final minute before a 6 point defeat. They now enter on a three game losing streak in which teams have been shooting the lights out against them from stripe. But that won’t happen with the Big Green who knocks down just 69% FT. Though hardly a fan of the Big Green and HC Cormier in the third year of his return to Hanover, the Green must be given their due. IN their lone road game at Harvard, they led by double digits with under five before the “deer in the headlights” mentality resulted in an 8 point OT defeat. Surely, however, must give them credit for 71-62 upset of Yale last Saturday night. It keys a situation that finds less than .400 road dogs, following an upset victory, to be 178-103 ATS. Mysteriously, third year HC Smith of Columbia is just 1-9 ATS home following a cover.
Indiana -7½
As stated in our Wednesday write up of the Toronto game, a 99-95 home loss to Boston, it will be very hard for Bargnani, Gay, and only one basketball, to co-exist on the same court. The return of the high-scoring Bargnani dropped the Raptors record to 4-18 SU, in games where he appeared. But a four point home loss when you are leading by 10 at the start of the 4th, is not a good thing. Giving me pause for making this a stronger play against, is the fact that Toronto HC Casey is 30-15 ATS / BBL, and 16-4 ATS / BBATSL. Indiana just steamed through the only three in three on the NBA schedule. Winning on consecutive nights against Chi, Atl, and Phila – all by 10 or more points. They are now on runs of 5-0 SU and 6-0 ATS. Few home courts have been as strong as Banker’s Life. Recently, the Pacers are 15-0 SU, 11-4 ATS at home. For the season, they allow just 87 PPG at home, the best in the East. This line is right in their wheel house, as they are 14-6 ATS home TO -10, and 19-9 ATS in all games as favorite.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA/New Orleans Under 194
These two have both played a bunch of high scoring games recently and as a result, we get a pumped up number to fade. The Hornets have seen four of their past five opponents go over the century mark and three of those scored 110 or more. New Orleans has just two wins in their past eight games and in the six losses, the opposition scored 100 plus. In the pair of wins over that span, the Hornets won 93-84 and 91-83. It's blatantly clear that New Orleans can't win shootouts. Stands to reason that they’ll play a slow tempo for this one.
The Hawks are just 5-5 over their past 10. The only game during that stretch with a higher posted total than this one was against the Raptors. That game went way under the total and when we look at the history of these two clubs playing one another, this total is at least nine points higher than all of the previous four, including one this year played in mid-January that ended up going under the posted total of 185 in a 95-86 Hawks victory. Both clubs are struggling to win games right now and when that occurs, coaches preach defense. That should bode well with this inflated number.
MEMPHIS -3½ over Golden State
The Warriors have been downright awful on the road during this four-game trip that saw them lose 140-109 to Houston and they followed that up with a 21-point loss at Oklahoma City. Now they have the unenviable task of playing against a club they just can't beat. The Warriors have dropped eight straight in this series, including a pair this season, by seven and 10 points respectively.
The Grizzlies are in a funk of their own since trading Rudy Gay, losing to Phoenix at home and then getting whacked in Atlanta. A team that looked so tough early on, Memphis has regressed badly over the past month. However, they will snap out of it. The Grizz are too talented and this is where they could pull up their socks. The Grizzlies have not come close to covering the number over their last two, missing by 15 and 14 points respectively. Compensation in this line is evident and it most certainly points us to the undervalued host.
Pass CBB & NHL
Ian Cameron
Utah State at San Jose State
Play: Utah State
San Jose State has now gone a month without a victory: 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS in their last seven games and they have been burning money for their supporters on their home court going 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. The Spartans struggles coincided with the suspension of their best player guard James Kinney who averaged 20.6 ppg along with over 5 rebounds per contest and a team high 34 steals. Kinney was well over 80% of San Jose State’s offense. Without Kinney on the court, only one player averages double digits in scoring on this team and that is Chris Cunningham at 10.6 ppg. Clearly, San Jose State hasn’t shown any sort of ability to adjust to Kinney’s absence.
Utah State has also had to deal with injuries. Preston Medlin is out 6 to 8 weeks with a broken wrist. Kyisean Reed is out for the season after suffering a torn ACL back in January. After the injuries to Medlin and Reed, the Aggies went through a state of turmoil going 0-4 SU/ATS in games against New Mexico State, Denver, UT Arlington and Louisiana Tech. Unlike the San Jose State situation though, Utah State has shown recent signs of successfully adjusting to life without Medlin and Reed where as San Jose State is still spinning its wheels without Kinney. The Aggies have had great efforts going 2-0 SU/ATS in road wins at Seattle and Idaho by double-digit margins. Utah State has received step up contributions from Jarred Shaw in the frontcourt along with Marcel Davis and Spencer Butterfield in the backcourt as those three players scored in double digits in both of those games. Utah State has been stifling on the defensive end of the court allowing 61.2 ppg and 41.8% shooting in their last five games which is bad news for San Jose State and their putrid offensive production scoring just 53 ppg on a woeful 31.9% FG shooting percentage in their last five games. We’ve seen Utah State head coach Stew Morrill make good adjustments as of late by getting this team to play more of an inside-the-paint game.
Utah State has crushed the Spartans by double-digit margins in each of their last three trips to San Jose dating back to 2010 and another Aggies victory by margin tonight against the slumping Spartans is expected. Lay the points.