Wunderdog
San Antonio at Memphis
Pick: San Antonio +1.5
A big Western Conference clash takes place in Memphis tonight with the San Antonio Spurs invading. The Spurs have been the top cover team in the NBA spanning over a decade of success, at 678-582 ATS since 1998. They have been an even better 71-45 ATS in their last 116 games and have the pedigree of showing up for big games. Memphis has lost just four times at home this season and Three of those were vs winning teams. The Spurs have been at their best after a win where they own a 38-15-4 ATS mark in their last 57 and come in here with confidence having gone 4-1 ATS vs. the Grizzlies in the last five meetings. Play on San Antonio.
Teddy Covers
Wright State at Loyola Chicago
Play: Wright State
This was supposed to be another down year for Wright State; still rebuilding following a string of 20+ win seasons under Brad Brownell (now at Clemson). But a funny thing happened to Billy Donlon’s squad on the way to the Horizon League cellar – they started playing great basketball, right from the get-go.
On opening night, the Raiders pulled the outright upset as ten point road dogs at Idaho. They followed that up with wins away from home against Eastern Illinois, Idaho State and Hofstra. Wright played at Cincinnati and hung tough throughout, a wire-2-wire ATS cover as 18 point dogs. And here in Horizon League play, we’ve seen the Raiders win each of their first three games, two in blowout fashion, thanks to a stifling defense that has held nine of their last ten opponents under 60 points.
Even in last year’s disappointing 13 win season, the Raiders still beat up Loyola-Chicago in both meetings, including a 16 point win here in Chicago. They swept Loyola in 2011 as well, winning by 17 on the Ramblers home floor. In fact, Loyola has just one win against Wright State in the last ten meetings between these two squads, and that win came by a single point on New Year’s Eve in 2009.
Loyola got off to a surprising start as well, but they’ve come back to earth here in January, losing as home chalk to Youngstown in their last try on this floor, then getting blasted at Green Bay earlier in the week. The Ramblers are a limited offensive ballclub, and they don’t play ‘D’ at Wright State’s level; primed for another home loss this evening.
Brandon Lee
San Antonio Spurs +1½
In my opinion this line is begging the public to jump all over the Grizzlies as a small home favorite, but a closer look has me thinking that the Spurs are the smart play. San Antonio has won five straight in the series with three of those wins coming by double-digits. I'm showing almost 60% of the bets are coming in on Memphis right now. If oddsmakers thought the Grizzlies had the edge, you would think they would have set this line higher to try and get more money on San Antonio. Take the Points!
Steve Janus
Boston Celtics -2½
The Celtics come into tonight's showdown against the Rockets riding a 4-game winning streak, which has coincided with the return of shooting guard Avery Bradley. Boston is a much better team when he is one the floor, especially defensively. This line is simply too low due to the fact that Rockets beat the Celtics 101-89 in Houston back in the middle of December. Boston is a much better team at home than they are on the road and are simply playing much better basketball right now than they were in December. Houston just lost on the road at New Orleans on Wednesday and are just 7-9 away from home this season. The Rockets are just 5-15 ATS in road games after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 2 seasons!
Steve Merril
Thunder vs. Lakers
Play: Over 216½
Oklahoma City has one of the best offenses in the NBA. The Thunder average 105 points per game as they shoot 47.8% from the field and 40% from three-point land. Oklahoma City has had a lot of offensive success against the Lakers in recent meetings as they’ve scored 103, 106, and 114 points on them in their last three games. And their offensive output should be even greater tonight since Los Angeles has allowed 103 points or more in their last five games.
Los Angeles is without their three big guys as Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol, and Jordan Hill are all sidelined with injuries. This team wasn’t built to play the fast-paced style that Mike D’Antoni wants, but they are now without Howard, Gasol, and Hill on the court. And we’ve seen that in their last two games against Houston and San Antonio. The Lakers are now a run, shoot, and run some more type of team with the personnel they have. Los Angeles is an extremely small team, and the only way for them to proceed is to play D’Antoni basketball which is up-tempo and shoot a lot of three’s. The Lakers have ample shooters on their starting five and also on their second unit which means we expect Los Angeles to run and gun just like they’ve done against the Rockets and Spurs. We expect both teams to go up and down the court making this a high-scoring game between the Thunder and Lakers on Friday night.
John Martin
Brooklyn Nets -6½
The Brooklyn Nets have been a completely different team since the firing of Avery Johnson. They have won six of their last seven games overall, including back-to-back 20-point blowouts over the Kings and 76ers. I look for them to make easy work of the Phoenix Suns at home tonight. The Suns are just 2-16 on the road this season, getting outscoring by a whopping 10.0 points/game away from home.
Dennis Macklin
Utah State -9½
Utah State's Stew Morrill is one of the best coaches you never hear much about. Going into this year, he'd won 345 games in 14 years with the Aggies. His name has been brought up for higher profile jobs but he seems to be content winning 25 games a year for an appreciative fan base in Logan. That said, it's been a little tougher the past couple of years but this year USU is back to it's usual standards sitting at 13-1 with it's only loss to St Marys. The Aggies have won 11 straight going 6-3-1 ATS in the 10 lines games and tonight face a hard trying but pretty much phoney San Jose State team. The Spartans are 3-1 in the WAC but two of those wins have come against Texas State and UTSA. Versus the Top 150, SJSU is just 1-3 with the three losses by nine points or more. Don't really mind laying nine and the hook here with a home team that shoots 38% from downtown and 54% from inside the arc. Roll with Utah State here.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Loyola-Chic/ Wright State Over 115: Both of these teams are used to playing low scoring games, but I feel we can get enough points t get the Over here. Wright State's games have averaged 118.2 ppg overall and 118.5 ppg on the road, and we note that 5 of their last 7 have put up at least 117 points, while their last 2 on the road have put up at least 120 points. For Loyola we note that 3 of their last 4 have put up 117 or more points, while their home games have averaged 128.4 ppg. Both of these teams have played excellent defense this year, but I still don't see a reason why both can't bag at least 59 points each. Wright State averaged 58.7 ppg, while Loyola puts up 69 ppg at home. Should be a tight game so FT's at the end of the game and/ or OT is possible as well. I see at least 120 in this one.
Creighton/ Missouri State Over 127: Really have to feel that a 14 point favorite will get the pace of play that they want. For Creighton that is uptempo and I see them getting their pace in this one. The Blue Jays come in averaging 80.2 pg overall and 72.3 ppg on the road. They have scored at least 74 points in 6 of their last 7 games, with those games averaging 133.7 ppg. Creighton is not a great defensive squad as they allow 62.3 ppg, including 67.5 ppg in their last 4 games and I feel that a struggling Missouri State offense should be good for at least 60 off of them. 70+ from one team and 60 from another will give us a solid play on the over here.
Harry Bondi
GOLDEN STATE (-7.5) over Portland
We cashed in with our fifth FREE PLAY winner in the last six days last night when we had Portland in a come-from-behind, outright upset win over the Heat, and tonight that sets us up to go against the Trailblazers, who are sure to be in letdown mode. One of the reasons we liked Portland last night was because of its strong home court, but the team is just 7-11 ATS on the road this year. Golden State has been very good to us this year and is 10-6 ATS at home, with all of those games coming as a favorite, and it is also 10-3 ATS against winning teams. The Warriors have lost two straight, but have yet to suffer a three-game losing streak all season. Let's take the better team in the better situation, playing at home. Lay the points.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta/ Utah Under 193: Just don't see this one putting up more than 185 points. This Atlanta team does not like to push pace and I believe they will get it where they want it tonight. Hawk games this year have averaged 191.3 ppg, while their last 5 have put up just 182.6 ppg. Atlanta has really had some problems scoring of late as they have averaged just 89.2 ppg in their last 5 games and Utah comes in having allowed 94 ppg in their last 5 games. Overall Utah does allow 101 ppg on the road, but they should have a good showing vs this struggling Offense. Utah averages 96.6 ppg on the road and the Hawks allow 96.8 ppg at home, but overall Atlanta has been playing some solid defense of late, allowing just 93.4 ppg in their last 5 games, while also allowing just 91.3 ppg in their last 4 at home (Regulation Only). I really see this as a slow paced game that will put up at most 185 points.
Oklahoma City -5.5 over LAKERS: The Lakers played way over their heads vs the Spurs and the Thunder saw that so you can bet they will not take this team lightly. Yes the Lakers may have Gasol back in this one, but even if they do i just don't see them keeping pace with this high scoring Thunder squad. With or without Gasol the Lakers still have no defense. 3 of the Lakers last 5 games have been vs 3 of the top 5 scoring teams in the league and they allowed 115 ppg in those 3 games. Now they take on a healthy Thunder squad that is 2nd in the league in scoring. Ouch. That's a rough 4 game stretch. The other night the Spurs struggled a bit on defense with this squad, but the Thunder as been playing good defense this year as they have allowed just 96.3 ppg overall, including just 90.5 ppg in their last 4 games. Even if Gasol is back the Lakers are lacking depth and with this being their 4th fast paced game in a row vs a top 5 scoring offense I'll look for them to wilt in the 4th quarter, where the Thunder will pull away for a bug DD win.
Charlie Sports
Utah Jazz at Atlanta Hawks
Play: Utah Jazz
The (19-18) Utah Jazz of the NBA Western Conference Northwest division will take on the (20-14) Atlanta Hawks of the Eastern Conference Southeast division in 2013 NBA action. Utah has won 4 of their last 5 NBA games straight up and Against The Spread. The Jazz are 3-3 ATS their last 6 on the road. Atlanta has covered 5 of their last 7 Basketball games vs. Utah, but the Hawks have dropped 4 of their last 5 staright up and ATS, including their last 4 in a row. Utah gets the road cover.