Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 13

Scott Spreitzer

Creighton at Illinois State
Prediction: Creighton

It's a big week in the Mo-Valley because every team plays 3 games in 6 days. In fact Illinois State may be in a prime go-against spot on Sunday when they play Drake in Des Moines (stay tuned). But before putting the cart before the horse, let's look at tonight's tilt. Creighton is who we thought they were. But this young Illinois State team, with no seniors on the roster, have been opening eyes. Most preseason mags had Illinois State slated for 9th or 10th in the 10 team conference. But they're just a game out of first, trailing Wichita State, Missouri State, and Creighton. Illinois State hit the 70-point mark just 4 times in their last 29 games last season but they're averaging nearly 70 ppg this season. If you've "read up" on this team you already know that they went on a preseason trip to Canada, playing in a handful of games that brought this young team together in a hurry. But the fact is - they are still a young team and will now be playing in a rocking Redbird Arena against one of the best players (Doug McDermott) in the nation and arguably the best team in the MVC. Try to double and deny McDermott and the Jays have plenty of other weapons to beat you with, especially senior guard Antoine Young. Young saved the Jays last time out in a 63-60 home win over Northern Iowa. The Panthers denied McDermott the ball (took just 15 shots) but Young scored 21 points. The team is loaded with solid role players and an unsung "disher" in the backout in Grant Gibbs (5.88 apg). Creighton ranks 8th in the nation, averaging 81.9 ppg. They're the nation's 2nd best team in FG percentage (51.1%) and 3-point accuracy (45.2%). But while they prefer a higher scoring game, they have proven more than once this season they can win halfcourt, slower tempo contests. Tim Jankovich is certainly the "right" man to turn around the ISU program, but I believe his young squad will suffer some growing pains along the way and I expect this to be one of those spots. I'm laying the points with Creighton.

Marc Lawrence

Milwaukee Bucks at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks

After stumbling to a 0-3 start, the defending champs are starting to play a little better, winning six of their last eight, including a surprising victory at Boston Wednesday night. However, a big bulls-eye continues to remain on their backs not to mention a couple of unfavorable situations that are taking place tonight in Big D. For starters, the Mavs are 3-7 ATS as favorites after battling Boston. They are also 3-14 ATS as chalk in this series, including 1-10 ATS when laying 10 or fewer points. Toss in Milwaukee?s 14-4-1 ATS log on the road on Friday nights including 9-0 ATS as dogs and you can see why we think the 13th will be a bit unlucky for Cuban and company. No need to Buck the trends a solid take. We recommend a 1-unit play on Milwaukee.

Terron Chapman

Portland Trail Blazers vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Portland Trail Blazers +1.5

The Portland Trail Blazers haven’t had much trouble with the San Antonio Spurs of late. The Blazers have dominated the series recently, winning eight of the last nine, including a 100-92 victory at the AT&T Center in the last meeting. The Blazers will look to get back in the win column and continue their dominance as they look to hand the Spurs their first home loss of the season when the two meet Friday night in San Antonio.

The Blazers suffered their first home loss of the season Wednesday night in a 107-104 loss to the Orlando Magic. The Magic led from start to finish, jumping on the Blazers, 13-2 and never looking back. But, the Blazers have to like their chances of bouncing back Friday. The Blazers have held the Spurs to an average of 89.7 points in the past nine meetings. Tony Parker's 12.2 scoring average against Portland over the past two seasons is his worst against any Western Conference opponent. The Spurs are 2nd in the league in three point shooting, connecting on 41.5% of their attempts. However, Portland is among the league leaders (3rd) at defending the three point shot, holding opponents to just 28.4% from deep.

Portland is just 1-2 away from the Rose Garden this season, but the lone win came against the west-leading Oklahoma City Thunder. The athletic Blazers have proven to be a tough match-up for the Spurs and we expect more of the same Friday night. If the Blazers can continue to defend the three point shot with similar efficiency, it could be a long night for the host en route to their first loss at home. Take the road team at the counter. Play on the Portland Trail Blazers (+) the points for 1 unit.

Cajun Sports

Timberwolves vs. Hornets
Play: Under 183

The Minnesota Timberwolves travel to the Big Easy for a meeting against the host Hornets on Friday evening. We do not have an opinion on the side in this contest our attention is drawn to the total with the oddsmakers setting an early number of 183. Our TPR Index projects a much lower score between these two squads. The projection for the total combined score is 177 which gives us decent value with the current number. In the past when these teams got together in the Big Easy the Under was the right call cashing eleven of nineteen times. During the last three seasons, six of seven in New Orleans went Under the posted total. Minnesota has been an Under play this year posting a record of 2-7 to the low side including 0-2 Under when playing away from the Twin Cities. The Timberwolves last five outings have gone Under at a rate of 1-4. The Hornets have trended to the Under with seven of ten games falling below the posted total this season. At home they are 2-3 Under and in their last five games the Under has been the winning side on four of five occasions. Minnesota is 9-22 Under coming off a loss at home in their last game. New Orleans is 7-24 Under after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread. New Orleans is 9-20 Under after playing two consecutive games as an underdog and 1-9 Under after playing 4 consecutive games as an underdog. With significant fundamental support as well as strong technical support we will play the Under in the Big Easy on Friday night.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Minnesota – New Orleans UNDER 183

Rob Vinciletti

Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Washington Wizards +13

The Wizards fit a tight road system that pertains to road dogs with 1 day of rest that come in off a road dog loss and scored 70 or less with 35% or less shooting, vs an opponent also off a road game. This system has cashed 11 of 12 times the past 17 years. The reason we didn't unit rate the Wizards was because I wasn't able to tie any Power Angles into the equation. However for a free play their worth a shot as a these road dogs keep these games very close. The Sixers just had their win streak snapped in New York by the Knicks on Wednesday. I cant see them getting to excited for this one. Look for the Wizards to keep it close in what looks to a classic win and no cover for Philly.

Sean “Paddy” Murphy

Tampa Bay Lightning @ Washington Capitals
PICK: Washington Capitals

We're being asked to lay a fairly steep price with the Capitals in this spot, but it's warranted in my opinion.

The Lightning are in free-fall mode right now, losers of five games in a row. I'm still not convinced they've hit rock bottom.

This is a team that's been an absolute disaster away from home, posting a 6-18 SU record.

It's awfully tough to win games, regardless the venue, when you've got a goaltending tandem as bad as Dwayne Roloson and Mathieu Garon. Roloson has fallen completely off the map this season, posting a 3.76 goals against average and a .880 save percentage. Meanwhile, Garon hasn't been much better, recording a 2.85 GAA and .903 SAVE%.

In past years, Tampa Bay's offense was able to carry the load, but not here in 2011-12. The Lightning are averaging a miserable 2.13 goals per game away from home.

The Capitals snapped a two-game losing streak with Wednesday's 1-0 win over the rival Penguins. Given those two losses, which both came in blowout fashion, I don't expect any sort of a letdown from the Caps on Friday night.

Washington has been a force here on home ice, posting a 15-6 SU record this season. In fact, the Caps haven't lost at the Verizon Center since December 13th.

We saw a wild 6-5 shootout win by the Capitals in the first meeting between these two teams this season. Keep in mind, Washington carried the play on that night, outshooting Tampa Bay 43-28. An 0-for-7 showing on the power play almost did the Caps in.

Washington's PP has been clicking much better lately, converting at a 40% clip over its last five games, and a more realistic 23.9% on home ice this season. By contrast, the Lightning PP has converted on only 8.4% of its opportunities on the road.

Bryan Power

Detroit @ Charlotte
PICK: Charlotte -2.5

Something has to give in this battle of loser teams and I think that the home court factor will provide the determining edge for Charlote when they host Detroit tonight. Both teams lost last night. The Pistons lost their sixth straight - both SU/ATS - to Milwaukee Thursday, falling 103-92 as 8.5-point dogs. That was their first non-double digit loss during the losing streak. This team has yet to break 100 points. Even Charlotte's done that twice, although not last night when they were blown out by 30 in Atlanta for their fifth straight loss (1-4 ATS). The Pistons are not only 2-11 ATS in the second of back to back road games, but they are also 0-8 ATS when playing for a 5th time in 7 nights. Charlotte is 16-5 ATS when coming off BTB ATS losses. Look for the motivation of not wanting to lose in front of the home folks to carry the Bobcats to a sizable victory.

David Chan

Maple Leafs @ Sabres
PICK: Over 5.5

The 22-15-5 Toronto Maple Leafs surge into Buffalo to take on the reeling 18-19-5 Sabres.

Toronto has won four straight, including a dominating 2-0 win over the Sabres on Tuesday, who come into tonights contest losers of three in a row.

Leafs goaltender Jonas Gustavsson has a 1.51 GAA during Toronto's short win streak.

His counterpart Ryan Miller is having a heck of a time right now though, and has posted a 3.22 GAA in losing five of his last six vs. the Buds.

In fact Miller's 3.39 GAA at the First Niagara Center is the league's worst among all goaltenders that have started 10 or more home games.

Now Miller will be without ice-time leader Christian Erhoff; and that's bad news for an already banged up Sabres defensive unit.

Toronto would love nothing more than to kick this team while its down, as it starts to eye a playoff position.

That said, Buffalo hits the road for a seven-game trip after tonight, and plays with the "immediate revenge factor".

I believe all signs point to a high-scoring affair; how about you?!

Nick Parsons

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres
Pick: Buffalo Sabres

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the home side: The Leafs are 22-15-3-2, and are 10-10-1-0 on the road; they've won four straight, including a 2-0 shootout victory over these same Buffalo Sabres on Tuesday. All four of those victories came in Toronto; note that those wins came on the heels of three straight road losses. On the other bench: The Sabres are 18-19-3-2, including 10-9-3-2 in front of the home town crowd; they've lost three straight. After tonight's game, Buffalo hits the road for a seven-game trip. It goes without saying that this team has "revenge" on its mind, and is desperate to end its current losing streak, and to have something to build off moving forward on the lengthy trip away from friendly confines; “We need to get one and it will make the boys in here feel good and hopefully we can string them on from there,” F Drew Stafford said. “We’ve got a great opportunity in the rematch.” Bottom line: This is definitely a "situational play"; consider laying the short price.

Jim Feist

Creighton vs Illinois State
Pick: Creighton

A big game in the Missouri Valley conference, as both Creighton and Illinois State have winning conference records. Illinois State gets a huge test here against No. 21 Creighton -- are they ready for a step-up game? The Redbirds are 7-17 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. a team with a winning road record and 6-15 ATS in their last 21 home games. So they have not been able to step up against quality opponents. Creighton (14-2) has a powerhouse offense, No. 9 in the nation in scoring (81.9 ppg) and second in assists. The Bluejays are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall, 15-6 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Play Creighton!

Dave Cokin

Drake vs Evansville
Pick: Evansville

Evansville has absorbed three straight losses in games that could have gone the other way. Here's a chance for the Aces to take out some frustration on a shaky Drake team that has not impressed through the early going in MVC play. I'll spot the points with Evansville.

David Banks:

Bulls / Celtics Under

Eastern Conference heavyweights are set to collide on Friday night when the Chicago Bulls (10-2, 8-4 ATS) invade Beantown looking to hand the aging Boston Celtics (4-5, 5-4 ATS) their third loss in a row; tip-off from the TD Garden is set to go live at 8:05 ET on ESPN.

Perched atop the Central Division and owners of the best record in the Eastern Conference, Coach Tom Thibodeaus Bulls hit the road Friday night to play the Celtics before returning home to take on the Toronto Raptors on Saturday. Last we saw Chicago, it wrapped up a successful three-game in three-night slate that saw them topple the Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves, and Washington Wizards both SU and against the closing pointspread. The Bulls still had enough in the tank to topple the Wizz even without the services of reigning MVP Derrick Rose who sat out to rest his ailing foot. Chicago currently ranks amongst the top 10 in the league in a number of crucial offensive and defensive categories, and has already posted a 3-1 SU record against Sagarins Top 10 rated teams. Six of its 10 overall wins have already come away from the United Center where its covered the closing number in five of eight road tussles.

Maybe last years bowing out to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Semifinals in five games was a sign of the times for a Celtics franchise thats done little if anything to make sure a smooth transition takes place once long in the tooth vets Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, and Kevin Garnett decide to hang them up. Boston got out to a rough start to its 2011-12 campaign dropping each of its first three games played, but it bounced back to win four in a row. Unfortunately, the squad enters tonights showdown losers of two in a row both SU & ATS after falling at home to the defending champion Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday night. The loss was the second in a row incurred at home with the squad getting pounded by an upstart Indiana squad five days earlier. Though Boston is shooting at a 46.9 percent clip (#4) and is the best 3-point shooting team in the league (44.6%), its scored an average of just 91.9 PPG (#23) and hasnt played the type of lock down defense weve seen exhibited in years past.

These teams split their four meetings a year ago with the home team holding serve each time; Chicago covered three of the four games to move to 5-1 ATS in these rivals L/6 overall meetings. The favorite has covered four of the L/5 confrontations, while the under has cashed in five of the L/7. However, these teams have played to high scorers eight of the L/9 times they went at it in Boston.

CHRIS JORDAN

Last night I nailed Detroit as my free winner, as the Titans got it done on the road. Tonight another road conference rival, as I take the Seton Hall Pirates in Miami, against the South Florida Bulls. Finally ranked in the Associated Press' Top 25 poll for the first time in more than a decade, I like what I saw out of Seton Hall the last time out.

Ranked 24th in the current poll, the Pirates won their fourth straight looked great on Tuesday night in a 93-74 rout of the DePaul Blue Demons. It was Seton Hall's best offensive showing this season, as coach Kevin Willard's squad appeared unfazed at being ranked while flexing offensive muscle to run away with the contest.

Though tonight should prove to be a bit more of a test, since the Bulls are playing a little better than people might have expected them to, I like my chances with the Pirates' key personnel tonight. Senior point Jordan Theodore is an assist machine, and is silently showing us why he might be the Big East's MVP right now. He averages 26 points and 11 assists, with 3 steals.

The team's leading scorer is Fuquan Edwin, who comes in with averages of 28 points, 9 boards, 3 assists and 2 steals, while Aaron Crosby is contributing with 15 points per game and can catch fire from beyond the arc.

I'll take the Pirates, who are 10-3 ATS on the season, and a dominating 7-1 ATS the last eight meetings with South Florida. Lay the slim road chalk.

2♦ SETON HALL

SCOTT DELANEY C

To the NBA once again for my free play, after nailing Orlando last night in Oaktown, as I look at a pair of 3-7 teams take the court in the Big Easy tonight. My money is on the Minnesota T'Wolves getting it done over New Orleans Hornets.

I know the Wolves' roster is becoming sparse, due to injury, but the Hornets are struggling just the same without their stars. Minnesota has been making adjustments and is already learning to lean on the talents of Kevin Love and Ricky Rubio, with injuries to Michael Beasley, J.J. Barea, Martell Webster, Malcolm Lee and Brad Miller. But for the Hornets, the losses of Chris Paul and David West to off-season relocation, and Eric Gordon and Trevor Ariza to injury, they look lost.

And make note, last season when Paul and West were still with New Orleans, the Hornets lost two of three meetings with Minnesota. Last year, in February, the T'Wolves snapped a five-game road losing streak in this series.

Minnesota has covered six of 10 this season, is on a 7-3 AT run on the road and has covered six of the last eight in this series. Lay the cheap road chalk in this game.

2♦ MINNESOTA