Chuck O'Brien
I won't get long-winded with this free play, I only point out the obvious with this game in Missouri Valley Conference play. I would like to know why an 11-5 Indiana State team is coming into Southern Illinois, which is 5-11, and the line is deadlocked - a pick'em. You're telling me that the Salukis are that good at home they garner that much respect against a conference rival that is 2-3 in true road games?
On top of that, looking at this series, the Sycamores are 3-0 SU and ATS the last three meetings. The oddsmakers are begging you to take the road team here, knowing Southern Illinois could win this game on its own court.
Perhaps it's a Friday night thing in Carbondale, Illinois, I don't know. It's Military Appreciation Day at tonight's game, is that the reason the 235th-ranked scoring offense is getting this much respect on the betting board? You look up and down the statistical rankings, and find the Salukis at the bottom of the pack, while Indiana State is right in the middle. Yet the line is what it is?
Well, the Salukis are on ATS runs of 4-1 at home, 5-2 in conference play and 5-1 after an ATS setback. Let's take Southern Illinois tonight.
3♦ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is the Philadelphia 76ers to blowout the Washington Wizards.
Do I even need to get into details as to why I think Philly is going to crush Washington!?!?!?
Early returns this strike-shortened season show us that Washington is a team in name only. The Wizards are 1-9 straight up thus far, and the points certainly haven't been of much help, as the Wizards are just 3-7 against the spread through their first ten contests.
Philadelphia is off to a 4-0 start both straight up and against the spread at home this year, and in their last pair of series meetings with Washington, the 76ers have been double-digit winners - covering in both of those meetings.
These same teams will meet tomorrow night down in D.C., and to me this sure looks like a sweep of the board for the Philly crew. It all starts with tonight's home blowout win, as the Sixers make it five-for-five both straight up and against the spread in the City of Brotherly Love this year.
5♦ PHILADELPHIA
Craig Davis
Also gave you a free play winner on the Milwaukee Bucks over Detroit and I'm coming right back with them tonight vs. Dallas.
For whatever reason, they've played the Mavericks very well over the years. I can't quite put my finger on it, but the Mavs just don't seem to be able to blow them out of the gym... and that's what they've needed to do because they're always 8-point favorites or more.
In fact, the Bucks have actually won the last two meetings SU and Dallas only won the third one because they forced overtime and won by two... otherwise it would be a three-game win streak for the Bucks over the Mavs.
Over the past 10 years, Milwaukee has covered eight times vs. Dallas, winning four of those games SU. If you look up and down both rosters, you see they match up well with the Mavs. Stephen Jackson has been on a tear lately and he seems to own Dallas, no matter who he's playing for.
I don't think the Mavs can defend Brandon Jennings without a healthy Jason Kidd and Brendan Haywood is a stiff in the middle and can't guard Andrew Bogut for 48 minutes.
Dallas will probably win because Milwaukee can't win on the road, but this one should be close. Take Milwaukee as your free play of the day.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Vegas Experts
Minnesota Timberwolves at New Orleans Hornets
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves
The T'wolves are better than their 3-7 record. The Hornets are not. New Orleans simply lacks the firepower to compete here as they have yet to score 100 points in any game this season. Minnesota has played a pretty tough schedule to date and hung tough with the likes of Oklahoma City, Miami, Dallas, San Antonio, Memphis and Chicago. They'll welcome this drop in class. New Orleans is 10-23 ATS off a home loss, including 0-3 ATS last year.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +103 over BUFFALO
The Sabres have one win in their past seven games and that came against an Oilers team that has two wins in their last 13 games. Buffalo has scored three times in its last three games and 11 times in its last seven games. Aside from not playing with the grit we've been accustommed to seeing out of the Sabres, they're also been decimated with injuries to several key players. The team is a mess. The Maple Leafs are hot. They've won four in a row and outscored the opposition 17-6 over that stretch. Jonas Gustavsson is playing with confidence and has posted shutouts in two of his last four starts. The Leafs are healthier, they're in much better form and they've beaten the Sabres twice in the past three weeks. With a tag on the visitor, they're a must play against a reeling and mentally beaten down host. Play: Toronto +103 (Risking 2 units).
Pittsburgh +104 over FLORIDA
The Panthers are having a tremendous year. They're first in the Southeast Division and they're 11-4-5 at home. That sounds pretty good when you say it but in reality they're 11-9 at home, as they've lost five games in extra time at the Bank Atlantic Center. The Panthers are usually involved in close games and the Penguins are certainly capable of making life tough on them. Pittsburgh's stock has plummeted. They've lost six in a row and they're being written off as a hard-luck club that has been gravely hit by the injury bug. We'll “buy low” and do it with confidence. A close look at those six losses reveals that the Pens have badly outshot every team they've played. Over its last eight games, the Penguins have allowed more than 23 shots on net just twice. For the most part, they're holding the opposition to about seven shots on net per period. This is not the M.O. of a losing team and the Penguins don't have the mentality of a losing team. They're mentally and physically tough. They're actually playing as well right now as they were at the beginning of the year when they were winning a lot more games than they were losing. The results aren't there but the effort is and so is their dominance on most nights. This team is virtually the same squad that won all those games earlier in the year and they can't keep losing games when they're playing this well. The Pens dig down even deeper here and get the result they deserve. Play: Pittsburgh +104 (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Cleveland +7 over PHOENIX
The Suns have won three in a row at home with the smallest margin of victory being by nine points. In its last two home games, Phoenix beat the Bucks by 16 and the Trail Blazers by 25. What all that has created is an overpriced and overvalued team that really has no business being this big a favorite over any team that's not in a unfavorable spot. The Cavaliers didn't play last night so they'll come in here somewhat fresh. They've lost two in a row and three of four so there's no letdown spot either. There really isn't a lot that seperates these two in terms of talent but there is in hope. The Suns have none while the Cavaliers are going to be competitive in many more games this year and for years to come. So, recent results in the span of a week have the Suns at an inflated price against a team that is going to get better and better as the season progresses. Both teams come in with 4-5 records but the Cav's have an edge on the boards and in scoring and that's a combination that is more than capable of pulling off the upset. Play: Cleveland +7 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Matt Fargo
Cleveland State vs. Butler
Play: Cleveland State +3½
It has certainly been an up and down season for Butler as it started the season 5-7 but ran off four straight wins before losing its last game at Detroit by 11 points this past Sunday. The Bulldogs are back home where they have a modest two-game winning streak with both of those wins coming in conference play. Overall Butler is 3-2 through five games in the Horizon League but those three wins have come by four points, four points and most recently, one point. Laying points with the Bulldogs in not a good idea now.
Cleveland St. is off to a great start at 14-3 including 4-1 in the conference. The Vikings have played their last three games at home so while hitting the road may seem like a bad spot here, since it is at Butler, they will be just fine. They catch Butler at a good time since it is in a down year and they will be looking to snap a five-game losing streak against the Bulldogs as Cleveland St. has not won since a 57-54 victory in the 2009 Horizon League Tournament Championship game.
This is a good matchup for Cleveland St. as it sends its solid defense to go against a horrible Butler offense. The Vikings are ranked first in the conference in scoring margin at +7.0 ppg, turnover margin at +4.5 tpg, steals at 9.2 spg and scoring defense at 58.0 ppg while ranking second in three-point shooting defense at 28 percent. The Vikings have held 12 of their 17 opponents to under 45-percent shooting from the floor. Butler meanwhile is averaging just 59.2 ppg at home on a mere 36.6 percent shooting.
Cleveland St. is 7-1 in true road games and it falls into a great situation where we play on road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after two straight wins by 10 points or more going up against an opponent after scoring 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. This situation is 60-29 ATS (67.4 percent) over the last five seasons. While Butler has usually owned a great home court edge, that isn't the case this season plus the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games after playing two straight road games.
Craig Trapp
New Jersey Nets vs. Phoenix Suns
Play: New Jersey Nets +7
Hard to imagine that team could have less talent than the NETS but the Suns are pretty close. Huge advantage in this one is Williams vs Nash. Williams size and strength will dominate here and with PHO coming off loss last night to CLE it just helps our case. PHO is old and unathletic and the NETS will take advantage of that tonight.
Ben Burns
Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics
PICK: Boston Celtics
The Bulls are a good team which is off to a very strong start. The Celtics are no slouches either and I feel this game may be a little more meaningful to them.
The Celtics are off back to back losses. That should provide them with plenty of motivation. They're now 30-15 SU the last 45 times they were off an upset loss. During that stretch, they're still a healthy 72-31 at home.
The Bulls have been perfect at home. While they've also been tough on the road, they haven't been unbeatable. They lost by 15 Atlanta and by eight at Golden State.
The Celtics have had real trouble at Chicago in recent seasons and they've lost three straight there. They're 6-1 the last seven times that they hosted the Bulls though, including 2-0 last season.
While Rose may well play, he's not at 100%. The Celtics are healthier and I expect them to be "hungrier." Getting a couple of extra points is a bonus. Consider Boston.
WUNDERDOG
Bradley at Wichita State
Pick: Bradley +20
The Bradley Braves have endured a rough season to this point, finding the win column on the road just one time on the season, posting an overall record of just 5-12. The eight straight losses have pushed the oddsmakers into packing their lines into the plus side of value as they have covered their last two. Wichita State beat this team by 39 points on the road, so look for the "A" game to stay in the locker room, while the Braves will play with fire after the embarrassing loss at home. The Braves are a momentum-driven 9-4 ATS following an ATS loss, while the Shockers 1-4 ATS as a chalk of -13 or more in their last five when playing down to the level of the competition. Take the points and play on Bradley in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Niagara/ St Peter's Over 131: Ok so the Peacocks have the MAAC's lowest scoring offense (59.8 ppg), but tonight they will be facing a Niagara team that has allowed 75.8 ppg (324th) on 46.8% shooting (310th), so they should have some nice scoring opportunities tonight. St Peter's has scored just 58 ppg on the road, but fear not as the purple Aces have allowed 81.4 ppg on 50.1 % shooting on their home floor this. Niagara is a team that likes the uptempo game, so they don't shoot particularly well but they get a lot of chances to score and they have averaged 69.5 ppg overall, but at home they have put up 76.1 ppg. St peter's on defense has allowed 67.2 ppg, but on the road they have allowed 70.2 ppg. Niagara's MAAC games have averaged 141.4 ppg, while their home games have averaged 157.5 ppg and playing at home i expect them to have the pace of the game where they want it. This game should hit 140+ points with ease.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Indiana State/ Southern Illinois over 133: The overall numbers for these teams have not produced many high scoring affairs, but once MVC games have started it has been a different story. ISU did play a low scoring game vs Northern Iowa (113 points), but in their other 4 MVC games their has been an average of 144 points scored. For SIU, Their MVC games have been a bit high scoring as well with all 5 of their games hitting at least 139 points. The Salukis have averaged just 65 ppg for the year, but in their last 7 games that average has gone up to 72.0 ppg, while in their last 4 MVC games they have averaged 74.5 ppg. This is a team that has changed to more of an uptempo style and as the season progresses they will continue to put up more and more points. Defense has been shaky for both of these teams once MVC play has opened as Indiana State has allowed 71.4 ppg on 45.6% shooting in league play, while Southern Illinois has allowed 74.8 ppg in their 5 league games. Both teams have played higher scoring games in conference play and i see that trend continuing tonight as these teams should combine for 140+ points here. KEY TREND--- INDIANA ST is 17-5 OVER after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games since 1997.
Princeton/ Cornell Over 124: What's this? That Princeton offense has been scoring points of late. That's right. In their last 6 games the Tigers have put up 70+ points in 5 of those games. Granted two of those games was in OT, but they have still hit 70+ points in their of their last 5 non-OT games. The Princeton defense has not been super of last as they have allowed 66 ppg in their last 5 games. Cornell really likes to play the uptempo games, especially at home, where they have scored 75.2 ppg. Cornell though has not been great on defense as they have allowed 70.1 ppg overall, including 70.6 ppg at home, that should really help Princeton to continue to get their points. Both teams should continue to produce offensively in this game and that should easily put this game Over the total. KEY TRENDS--- PRINCETON is 15-5 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, while CORNELL is 6-0 OVER when the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
2 UNIT PLAY
Creighton -2 over ILLINOIS STATE: CREIGHTON is 23-11 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons, while ILLINOIS ST is 2-10 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams - making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAY
VALPO -6 over Youngstown State: YOUNGSTOWN ST is 6-16 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 8 days over the last 3 seasons, while VALPARAISO is 11-1 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons.
Jack Jones
New Jersey Nets +6.5
I like the New Jersey Nets in this spot against the overrated Phoenix Suns whose best years are behind them. Phoenix is just 4-6 this season, and they're coming off a bad 90-101 home loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers last night. This will be their 3rd game in four days, and I don't expect them to recover in time.
New Jersey comes in on some decent rest. They did not play yesterday, and this will only be their 3rd game in six days. The Nets have played much better of late, covering the spread in each of their last two games against the Hawks and Nuggets despite losing outright. They played the Miami Heat the game before, so this team is certainly battle-tested right now as they've played three straight contests against three of the best teams in the league.
The Nets want some payback from two straight overtime losses to the Suns in their last two meetings. Phoenix is certainly down this year, and this is a great opportunity for New Jersey to exact their revenge. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points. Phoenix is 6-18 ATS in their last 24 when playing 8 or more games in 14 days. Bet the Nets Friday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Cleveland State +3.5
Cleveland State is clearly better than Butler this season, and it will be lacking no motivation against a team that has defeated it 5 straight times. Butler is not the same team that made back-to-back trips to the national title game, but it is still being valued that way. As a result, it is just 2-10 ATS in all lined games this season, including 0-5 ATS at home. We'll take Cleveland State and the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Portland Trail Blazers +1.5
Portland typically plays its best basketball at home but showed it is capable of going on the road and beating an elite opponent with a 103-93 win against the Thunder, who are tied with the Bulls for the best record in the NBA. The Spurs aren't at full strength with Manu Ginobli out, and they didn't have much success against the Blazers with him in the lineup last season, losing 2 of the 3 games he played against them. The Spurs had the best record in the West last season but had no answer for the Trail Blazers, who have won 3 straight and 8 of the last 9 in the series. The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in their last 4 games, and they are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite of 4.5 points or less. We'll bet the Blazers.
Steve Janus
Evansville -4.5
While the betting public has jumped all over Drake as 4.5-point underdogs, my money is on Evansville to not only cover the spread but when this game easily.
Drake is one of the worst road teams in college basketball. They are 0-4 straight up and 0-4 ATS in true road games this season. The Bulldogs aren't just getting beat, they are getting blownout. Those four losses were all by double-digits. If you include games played on a neutral site, the Bulldogs are 1-6 straight up and 1-6 ATS.
Evansville has lost three straight games by a combined total of 5-points! The Purple Aces were at least 8-point underdogs in all three of those games. I look for Evansville to come out with a sense of urgency in this game, as they don't want to lose another close game, especially in front of their home crowd.
Last year Evansville hosted Drake as a 5.5-point favorite, which is what the line opened up at in this game. The Purple Aces came out and dominated the game in a 67-51 win.