DAVE COKIN
DALLAS AT ANAHEIM
PLAY: DALLAS -110
The Dallas Stars have been off for nearly an entire week. That’s not normally something that excites me, particularly when it’s a team that’s enjoying success, as all that time without action can dull things.
But in the case of the Stars, I don’t think the break could have come at a better time. They had lost a bit of their edge recently and I’m looking at this as an opportunity to get a good break from the rigors of the NHL, while also working on getting back toward the level they’ve enjoyed for virtually the entire season.
Anaheim is playing its best hockey of the season recently. The Ducks have been a pretty serious flop this year, but the surge of late has gotten the team back into the playoff hunt. The Ducks have to show they can maintain their present form if they want to have a chance at playing beyond the regular season.
If the past results from the current season are an indicator, look for Dallas to come out firing tonight. The Stars have been outstanding when playing with extra rest. They’re 13-2 on the year when off for two or more days, and that includes a perfect 6-0 if they’re also off a loss. Those are obviously short term trends, as is the case with any in-season tendency. But if you’ve watched this team on a regular basis, it’s pretty clear that when they’ve got their skating legs, the Stars are about as dangerous as any team in the league.
I expect this to be a good game as the Ducks should at least have some confidence going thanks to their recent improvement. But if Dallas is clicking tonight, they’re going to have a good chance to turn this into a fast-paced game, and that’s not good for Anaheim as a rule. I’ll lend my support to the Stars in a pick ’em game.
Rob Vinciletti
Portland at Brooklyn
Play: Portland -3½
Portland has started to get hot and comes in off a pair of impressive home wins. Tonight they take on Brooklyn who may be flat off their big win over the cross town Knicks. Brooklyn is 0-4 straight up with one spread win as a home dog of less than 4 and has lost all 7 times in Friday games, covering in just 2 of those losses. Non conference home dogs that covered the spread by 10 or more as a home dog have failed to cover 80% vs an opponent off a home favored win and cover. Portland has covered in 14 of 20 off 3+ home games and the winning team in this series has covered 9 of the last 10. Taking the Trailblazers.
Jim Feist
Heat vs. Nuggets
Play: Under 192
Denver likes to run but Miami won't have any of that, coming into town with the No. 2 ranked defense in the NBA. Miami is 13-5-1 under the total against the Western Conference and the Under is 35-16-1 in the Heat;s last 52 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Denver isn't a strong offensive team, 23rd in points scored, while Miami is 25th. Denver is 10-3-1 under the total in the Nuggets last 14 vs. the NBA Southeast.
Mike Lundin
Heat vs. Nuggets
Play: Heat -130
The Denver Nuggets have won three of their last four and will be looking to build on an impressive 112-110 upset win against the Warriors Wednesday. I think that win sets up a letdown spot tonight though when hosting a Miami Heat team desperate to put an end to a three game slide. They've played some tough opponents though, losing at Utah, Golden State and Los Angeles Clippers, and they're 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing home record while Denver is 6-11 ATS home at Pepsi Center.
Ben Burns
Miami / Denver Under 193½
The Heat makes stop No. 5 on a six-game road trip at the Pepsi Center Friday. Miami has lost three in a row on the road, averaging only 92 points in that span. The Heat rely on their defense to pull them through most nights, so we expect them to focus on tightening up on that end of the floor after allowing an average of more than 104 points during that skid. This is the second-best defense in the NBA, giving up just 95.5 points per game on the season. The Nuggets don’t present much of a challenge defensively, scoring 98.6 points a night. Miami enters this game with a 4-11-1 Over/Under record on the road and we look to them to dictate the pace Friday night.
Power Sports
Atlanta vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Atlanta
I played against the Hawks their last time out and wound up very happy as they got destroyed in Charlotte, 107-84 as three-point road favorites. It was a poor shooting night (37%) overall as the team was coming off a three-day layoff after B2B 120+ point efforts. I'll call for a bounce back here in Milwaukee. Lay the points.
The pointspread is similar to Wednesday here, but the opponent is a drop in class for the Hawks. Milwaukee has regressed badly this season and is coming off a 106-101 loss at Washington despite shooting 52.8% from the field. That loss dropped them to 16-25 SU overall and their biggest problem lies on the defensive end where they rank 29th in efficiency, allowing 106.9 pts per 100 possessions. Only the Lakers are worse.
Atlanta has won each of its last six trips here to the Bradley Center, holding the Bucks to an average of just 93.7 PPG. For whatever reason, Friday has been "their night" as they sport a 31-14 ATS record the L3 seasons. With Al Horford coming off - by far- his worst game of the season, he should rebound (literally and figuratively) as should the team. Milwaukee is only 6-16 SU vs. teams with a winning record.
Art Aronson
Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks
Prediction: Anaheim Ducks
The Stars opened the season by going 11-2-1 on the road, but they've since gone just 1-4-3 away from friendly confines while giving up an average of 3.9 goals. Dallas has in fact surrendered six goals in its last two road games, which doesn't bode well for the team with games at San Jose on Saturday and Los Angeles on Tuesday. To make matters worse, Dallas' vaunted offensive unit has gone ice cold of late, totalling just five tallies in the last three games. Goaltender Antti Niemi has lost four straight on the road and has a poor .857 save percentage in his last three; Kari Lehtonen is 0-1-0 with a 7.67 GAA in his last three road starts. The power play has also been a glaring weak point for the Stars, going just 2 for 34 in its last 13 road games. The Ducks will be looking to take advantage and to say this is a "revenge" game would be a bit of an understatement as the Stars won both trips to Anaheim last your and posted a 4-3 home victory on October 27th. The Ducks are 3-2-0 on a season-high eight-game homestand and come in off a 4-1 win over Ottawa on Wednesday. After a slow start to the season, Anaheim has looked a lot better of late, they've scored at least three goals three times during the current homestand and have surrendered 14 non-shootout goals during a 6-2-1 stretch. Note that Ducks goaltender Frederik Andersen has posted a 1.76 GAA over his last four starts. We definitely think the DUCKS are worth a second look in this spot and at this price.
Joseph D'Amico
Wolves vs. Thunder
Play: Thunder -12
Yes, Oklahoma City has had their way with Minnesota, winning the L8 meetings in the series SU. However, these two teams met just three days ago, where the Timberwolves cut a 16-point 2nd half deficit down to just 3 points with two minutes left. The Thunder prevailed, 101-96, with Durant and Westbrook combining for 52 points. Minnesota then went on to cover against Houston on Wednesday while OKC shredded Dallas, 108-89 as Westbrook was ejected in the 1st half with 0 points. The Thunder won't take this contest lightly and will look to put the T-Wolves away early and big. This is a Minny team that is riding an 8-game losing streak, going 2-6 ATS while Oklahoma City has won 17 of their L21 SU. The Durant-led offense is explosive and possesses a starting-5 with both more talent and more experience. The T-Wolves are 6-13-1 ATS their L20 played at the Thunder.
Chip Chirimbes
Heat at Nuggets
Play: Nuggets
The Denver Nuggets not only handed the Golden State Warriors their third loss of the season on Wednesday 112-110 but have now won three-of-four. Miami who plays 14 of 16 games on the road have dropped their last three and are off a 104-90 loss to the L.A. Clippers on Wednesday when the committed 24 turnovers. The Heat are without point guard Goran Dragic who was injured Monday against the Warriors. Play the hot hand here as Nuggets' forward Danilo Gallinari has scored 20 or more points in six straight games.
Wunderdog
Dallas Stars at Anaheim Ducks
Pick: Anaheim Ducks -115
Dallas has hit a mid-season slump, losing six of nine. Road travel is the problem, playing their seventh road contest in the last 12 games tonight. Dallas opened 11-2-1 on the road but has since gone 1-4-3 since while allowing an average of 3.9 goals. The Stars have yielded six goals in their last two road games. They come off a 2-1 home loss to Minnesota, part of a 2-5 run. Dallas has gone 2 for 34 on the power play in its last 13 road games. Goalie Antti Niemi has lost his past four road games and has an .857 save percentage in the last three, while fellow net-minder Kari Lehtonen is 0-1-0 with a 7.67 goals-against average in three road starts. The Ducks are off a 4-1 win over Ottawa on this season-high eight-game homestand. Grab the home team in this one and take Anaheim.
David Banks
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Houston Rockets
Pick: Houston Rockets+1.5
If the Rockets Dwight Howard is able to play, Houston just might have a shot against the Eastern Conference’s No. 1 seed, Cleveland. The veteran center has been hampered by back tightness and spasms that kept him out of a few games last week. If Howard plays, it will at least give Houston a physical presence inside. Howard averages 14 points and 12 rebounds per game and can match up with the Cavs Kevin Love (16.2 ppg).
Cleveland, of course, revolves around the play of LeBron James. What James has around him now that he lacked for so long in his prior stint in Cleveland is one of the league’s better point guards in Kyrie Irving and the aforementioned Love. The 6-11 Love is one of the game’s most versatile power forwards. He can score from outside, inside, and averages nearly 11 rebounds a game.
The Cavs also present a problem for Houston and leading scorer James Harden (28.3 ppg). Cleveland is one of the NBA’s best defensive teams limiting teams to just 95.4 points per game (3rd-best in the league). The Cavs have won six in a row and just twice in that six-game span did they allow an opponent to reach 100 points. What Cleveland also wants to do is to hold Harden to under 30 points. When the Rockets guard scores over 30 or more, Houston is 11-4 on the season.
Jeff Saad
Minnesota at Oklahoma City
Play: Over
Minnesota plays no defense, 21st in the NBA in points allowed, 23rd in field goal shooting defense. The Over is 5-0 in the Timberwolves last 5 road games, plus the Over is 7-2 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. They face an uptempo Oklahoma City offense that is No. 2 in the NBA in scoring with 108.7 ppg. The Over is 5-1 in the Thunder's last 6 home games, plus 5-0 over at home against a team with a losing road record. And the Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Oklahoma City.
Mr. Vegas
Portland at Brooklyn
Play: Brooklyn
A long road trip for Portland, and they are a road favorite despite being 7-15 away. The Blazers are 4-11 ATS vs. the Eastern Conference and 1-6 ATS playing on one days rest. Brooklyn is home, off a 114-110 win over the Knicks as a dog. This is their third straight home contest and the Nets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. the Western Conference. And the Home team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Rocketman
Miami vs. Denver
Play: Miami -2.5
The Miami Heat travel to Denver to take on the Nuggets on Friday night. Miami is 22-17 SU overall this year while Denver is 15-24 SU overall on the season. Denver is 0-6 ATS last 3 years at home when the total is between 190 and 194 1/2. Denver is allowing 102.9 points per game overall this year and 104.3 points per game at home this season. Denver is off a huge upset win over Golden State in their last game and I'm looking for a letdown here in this one. We'll recommend a small play on Miami tonight!
Jeff Benton
Your Friday freebie is George Washington plus the points to stay close to Dayton.
The Flyers Charlie Cook is questionable with a strained oblique, and even if he is able to go, Dayton's 2-4 spread mark their last 6 games does not suggest a cover here by the host.
The Colonials have some momentum on their side, as G-Dub has won their last pair and 4 of their last 5. They have also won 2 of the last 3 series meetings against Dayton, both wins coming in overtime.
The close nature of this series says the points are the way to go.
Look for another nail-biter in this Atlantic Ten rivalry.
George Washington plus the points the call.
3* GEORGE WASHINGTON