Brad Wilton
My Friday night comp play is the Atlanta Hawks as the road favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks.
Atlanta sure looked listless on Wednesday at Charlotte, as the Hawks were beaten by the Hornets by 23 points - their second worst loss of the season!
I expect the Hawks to play better tonight against a Milwaukee team that has dropped each of their last 3 home games heading into this Friday affair.
The Hawks have won and covered each of their last 6 meetings at the Bradley Center, and Atlanta is on a 13-2 straight up run against Milwaukee the last 15 times these teams have met.
Perfect spot for Coach Bud's team to get their ship sailing back into the winning waters after their head-scratcher on Wednesday.
Lay it with the Hawks.
3* ATLANTA
Craig Davis
Your free play of the day is the Cleveland Cavs minus the points over the Houston Rockets. At the time of this writing, the Cavs are laying a mere two points in Vegas and offshore.
The Cavs are currently 4-1 on this 6-game road trip that concludes tonight in Houston... a place they haven't won in their last eight trips. But after watching them carve up the Mavs and then build a double digit lead against the Spurs last night, it's clear they're on a mission to send a statement to the Western Conference.
Both teams are playing very well right now, so something's gotta give... and I think that's going to be bench play. Cleveland has had some injuries this year, forcing some of their bench players to play more minutes in a starting role.
Now that the starters are back, it's not such a big dropoff when they go to the bench.... because those players are used to being in the starting lineup and playing valuable minutes.
This is another statement game for the Cavs and I expect them to be ready. Take Cleveland minus the points over the Rockets as your free play of the day.
4* CLEVELAND
RAY MONOHAN
Mavericks -1.5
Last game out the Mavs were routed 108-89 by the Thunder to start their road trip. Rick Carlisle opted to rest his starting five. The Mavs are a different beast though. Carlisle is expected to have Nowitzki, Matthews, Parsons, Williams and Pachulia in the lineup tonight. The line opened with the Mavs at -3.5 so we're liking this lower number now. The Mavericks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. NBA Central. 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 0 days rest.
JACK JONES
Boston Celtics -9.5
The Boston Celtics finally snapped out of a funk in which they lost six of seven games with all six losses coming by 9 points or less. So they were competitive in every game, but they just couldn't get the breaks to go their way late.
The Celtics responded with a 103-94 home win over Indiana on Wednesday, and I look for them to build off of that victory tonight. They host the lowly Phoenix Suns, and this one won't come down to the final few possessions this time as I fully expect them to run away with it.
The Suns are playing as poorly as anyone in the NBA right now. They are 1-11 SU & 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games overall. They have losses by 21, 33, 23, 20 and 19 points during this stretch as they've rarely even been competitive.
Phoenix is 1-8 ATS in road games after allowing 100 or more points in three straight games this season. Boston is 28-10 ATS when playing its 3rd game in 4 days over the last two seasons. The Suns are 4-20 ATS vs. teams who attempt 24 or fewer free throws per game this season. Phoenix is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games. Boston is 22-10-2 ATS in its last 34 vs. Western Conference opponents.
JIMMY BOYD
Celtics -9
Boston snapped a 4-game losing streak with a 103-94 win at home against the Pacers on Wednesday and with 5 of their next 6 on the road after tonight's game against the Suns, I expect another big time effort from the Celtics on their home floor.
This may seem like a big number for Boston to be laying given their recent struggles, but the Suns are a complete mess right now. Phoenix is just 1-11 in their last 12 games and a mere 1-7 in their 8 games since losing Eric Bledsoe. The Suns have been especially bad on the road, where they are a mere 4-16 on the season, losing by an average of 9.5 ppg. In their last 5 road games they have suffered 4 blowout losses, losing by 19 to the Pacers, 20 to the Lakers, 23 to the Kings and 33 to the Spurs.
Phoenix has also had a difficult time against the Eastern Conference, as they are just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 non-conference games. Boston on the other hand is 22-10-2 ATS in their last 34 against the west. Celtics are also a dominant 37-18-1 ATS in their last 56 following a SU win and the Suns are 0-3 ATS this season when listed as a road dog of 9.5 to 12 points.
BRANDON LEE
Wizards/Pacers Under 204.5
These two teams combined for 129 points back on 11/24 in the only previous meeting this season, easily eclipsing the total for that game of 207.5. Now we see a total of just 204.5 points in the rematch less than two months down the road. That's a pretty good sign oddsmakers are expecting a much lower-scoring game this time around. Indiana is a strong defensive team at home and I don't see them pushing the pace offensively with this being their 4th game in 6 nights. Washington on the other hand is dealing with a number of injuries. Gortat, Porter, Humphries and Anderson are all not expected to play and there's a chance they rest Bradley Beal, who won't play either tonight or tomorrow in Boston. UNDER is 7-2 in Pacers last 9 home games and 7-2 in their last 10 off a SU loss.
SCOTT RICKENBACH
Heat vs. Nuggets
Play: Heat -2½
The Heat are desperately in need of a win and they are catching the Nuggets at the perfect time to get one! Denver is off of their upset win over Golden State on Wednesday. The Nuggets are 3-7 (30%) ATS this season when they are off of an upset win as an underdog and, of course, beating the defending NBA champs (and #1 team in the league again so far this season) is a BIG DEAL! Also, Denver is 0-6 ATS the past three seasons in home games with a posted total in a range between 190 and 194.5 points. The fact is that the Nuggets tend to struggle when teams slow them down into half-court sets and that is what this hungry Miami team is likely to do tonight. Having lost three straight games, the Heat bring plenty of motivation to the floor in Denver tonight. When the Heat enter a game on a losing streak of 3 games or more, they have gone 9-3 straight-up and 8-4 (67%) ATS. This is a small number to lay with the hungrier team and I'll lay the short number fully expecting a big road win for Miami.
DAVE PRICE
New Orleans Pelicans -2.5
I like getting the Pelicans as short home favorites tonight against the struggling Charlotte Hornets. The Hornets are 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall with 5 of those losses coming by 9 points or more. While the Pelicans have lost 4 of their last 5, all four losses came by 9 points or less, including three by 5 points or fewer. The Hornets are just 4-13 SU in all road games this season. The Pelicans are 9-2 SU & 10-1 ATS in their last 11 home meetings with the Hornets.
SPORTS WAGERS
TORONTO +113 over Chicago
OT included. The Maple Leafs are coming off three consecutive losses to L.A., San Jose and Columbus by a combined score of 12-2 but it does not concern us in the least. Blowouts happen from time to time so Toronto’s 7-0 loss in San Jose last Saturday means nothing. After returning home from their three-game California trip, Toronto hosted the Jackets and lost 3-1 but held a significant edge in every department including a 42-22 shots on net advantage. The Maple Leafs are still working hard and playing well. They figure to dig down even a little deeper tonight after those three-straight losses. More importantly, the Maple Leafs have proven that under this regime, we are going to get a top-notch effort out of them. All that said, we’re not as convinced as the rest of the world that Chicago deserves to be as hot as they are and so regression is on the way.
The Blackhawks have taken over Florida as being the hottest team on ice with nine straight victories. However, the Blackhawks have allowed 40, 43 and 37 shots on net in three-straight games. Over the past month, Chicago’s Corsi against has dropped six positions in the standings. The main reason the Blackhawks have been winning so many games recently is because Cory Crawford is in the midst of hot-streak but Chicago won’t have that luxury tonight, as Scott Darling is almost certain to get this start. But let’s forget all that for a moment and pay attention to the betting line. Toronto has just seven wins in 19 home games. Chicago has won nine in a row. The Blackhawks are priced in the same range here as they were in Montreal last night. Recently, Chicago was -165 in Arizona. When the betting line tells us something we tend to listen and in this case the line strongly suggests that the Leafs are a very live pooch. That’s good enough for us and it prompts us to step in.
Vancouver +135 over CAROLINA
OT included. We have been big supporters of the Hurricanes all season long while insisting that they’re constantly undervalued but the market has finally caught up to them here after they went into St. Louis last night and disposed of the Blues, 4-1. After four wins in succession for the first time all season, the Hurricanes are now overvalued for one of the rare times this season. While we love the work ethic of this host and the direction they’re going, they’re not quite ready to be priced in this range. The ‘Canes have Pittsburgh on deck on Sunday. This will be their fifth game in seven days and their fifth game in a different time zone in 11 days. Carolina jumped over three teams in the standings after last night’s win and it propelled them into a Wild-Card tie with Boston. That plane ride home last night for Carolina must’ve been a joyous one and we may see an exhale of sorts here after its strong run and against a team they don’t see often. The ‘Canes have been priced in this range twice this season. The first time occurred in their third game of the year when they were -149 over Florida and lost 4-1. The second time occurred more recently when they were -141 over New Jersey and lost 5-1. Again, they lost both games while being outscored 9-2.
The Canucks are rarely out of a game. They have 17 wins, 17 losses and 10 OT losses. Those 10 OT losses are the most in the league but it reveals just how close they have come to being well over .500. 17 of Vancouver’s 27 losses have been by one goal. The Canucks were the team that snapped the Panthers 13-game winning streak. They have also picked up points in seven of their past 10 games. In the second game of back-to-backs, Vancouver has not lost in regulation this season, going 2-0-2 in those situations. Lastly, the goaltending matchup is one that could allow the Canucks to come in here and steal a win even if they get outplayed. In the end, the Hurricanes have proven to be a solid take-back but in the favorite’s role in this range in a vulnerable spot, we want no part of them whatsoever.
SPORTS WAGERS
Monmouth +116 over IONA
The Gaels of Iona are 6-0 in the MAAC. They’re also 7-0 at home so at first glance this might look like a cheap price to pay on the host (Iona is a 2-point favorite) but we’re suggesting otherwise. Truth be told, the Gaels have lost to every quality team they have faced, which includes a 20-point loss to Oregon State and a 25-point loss to Valparaiso. The Gaels also lost by nine to Tulsa and by 14 to Akron. Overall, Iona is 9-6 which is being ignored in favor of the Gaels 7-0 home record and 6-0 conference mark. While we give the Gaels credit for scheduling a tough out-of-conference schedule, we can’t give them credit for some ugly losses. You would be hard-pressed to find the Gaels most impressive victory this season because they have all come against weaklings.
The same can’t be said for Monmouth. The Hawks out-of-conference schedule ranks 13th in the country. Monmouth defeated UCLA and then #17 Notre Dame. They also lost by just three to a very good Dayton squad and followed that up with a 10-point win over USC. The Hawks also defeated Georgetown by 25-points. That’s an impressive out-of-conference schedule with impressive results and it’s not a fluke. The Hawks have the most dominant player on the floor in Justin Robinson, an overlooked 5’ 8” guard that nobody noteworthy wanted. Robinson has taken over games and he has done so against very good competition. In six games against top-tier opponents (ranked No. 80 or better in BPI), Robinson has averaged 22.2 points and 2.8 steals, while hitting 50 percent of this 3’s during which Monmouth has defeated UCLA, Notre Dame, USC and Georgetown. The Hawks are a bit crazy to watch with their fast-paced game but what they have shown is a propensity for going on big runs and putting away unprepared squads. Hawks outright is the call.
Teddy Covers
Evansville vs. Illinois St.
Pick: Evansville
The Redbirds are not primed to defend Evansville’s motion offense effectively this evening, bad news against a team that ranks #3 nationally, hitting 52.3% of their shots from the floor this season while leading the Missouri Valley Conference in scoring.
Illinois State is gassed, playing their fifth game in 13 days. Guard DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell: “It may affect us a little bit offensively because we could be tired chasing all those screens and shooting the gap and all that stuff."
Illinois State has clearly been dealing with fatigue issues in their last few ballgames. They’ve blown double digit leads in each of their last two contests, allowing 49 second half points to Indiana State and 45 second half points to Southern Illinois. Two different Redbirds set career highs in points against Southern Illinois Head coach Dan Muller: “Fatigue is causing us not only to give up some baskets, but we've fouled down the stretch in both games way too much. We've played guys a lot of minutes in the second half and last 10 minutes of games because of injury, foul trouble or guys not playing well."
And injuries are clearly a factor for the Redbirds in this one. Leading shot blocker, seven footer David Ndiaye, is out with a stress fracture in his foot. Forward Roland Griffin has missed the last three games with a sprained toe. For a team that lacks low post depth, these are impact injuries!
Evansville has arguably the best inside/outside duo in the conference. Senior ig man Egidijus Mockevicius has 14 double doubles this season, tied for third in the nation. Head coach Marty Simmons, talking about his veteran low post stud: "I just think more than anything it's experience, maturity, confidence. He has been that way every year here. He's gotten better. His effort has been outstanding." Meanwhile, senior point guard DJ Ballantine is pouring in more than 20 points per game while leading the team in assists.
The Purple Aces are in stellar current form, winning eight times in their last nine games, the lone loss coming by only three points (as +10 underdogs) at mighty Wichita State. We’ve seen them win by margin on the road at Missouri State and Fresno in recent weeks, part of their 5-1 ATS run in their last six lined contests. Expect more of the same tonight!
Harry Bondi
CHARLOTTE +2.5 over New Orleans
Great situation for the Hornets here tonight as they will look to build off the momentum of snapping a brutal seven-game losing streak with a win on Wednesday against Atlanta. During that tough stretch, Charlotte played some of the best teams in the league, including Golden State and the Clippers (twice). Now that they are stepping back down in class, we get some value on them, as we did in their win over the Hawks as a 3-point dog. New Orleans, meanwhile, is just 3-7 ATS as a favorite this year, 6-10 ATS at home and is fresh off a West Coast road trip that saw it play three games in four nights against the Clippers, Lakers and Kings. They will be gassed tonight.
Greg Shaker
Canisius/Manhattan Over 154
This is a Family Affair between the Griffins and the Jaspers tonight. The number opened 155.5 and is as low as 153 right now. The Consensus Number though is what I have posted. The Visitors brings a torrid pace to this arena tonight. Strong trending for this one and these two have played a number of higher than average scoring affairs in their history including one not too long ago on 1/7. Neither team has great shooting skills or offensive efficiency but they will most likely be attempting a lot of shots and getting some Free Throw Opps along the way. The 1st Meeting saw 64 Free Throw Attempts (Both Teams Shoot Well from there) and 44 Three Point Attempts. No reason to expect anything different tonight. Our number is derived in many ways, most of which is Non Traditional, and we don't talk that much about how that is done. However, this number is too low in most cases (The Same Posted Total as Before) and we should see it go OVER at a High Rate, barring poor point differential at the end..
Vegas Butcher
Houston Rockets +1
I had this game circled this week, and though I was hoping for a Cavs win (and consequently them potentially resting LeBron – he’s playing unfortunately), I will still fade them in this one. The game against the Spurs was a very physically demanding matchup and all of the Cavs’ key guys spent a lot of energy in that one. Now on a b2b (CLE is 1-4 ATS in these spots so far) and playing their 6th and final game of a long road-trip, this is a difficult spot for the Cavs to be in. In addition, they have Golden State Warriors at home in their next meeting, so this could very well be a bit of a look-ahead spot for them. The team that I don’t expect to be ‘looking ahead’ are the Rockets, a team that has now won 5 in a row and playing much better basketball overall. The Rockets have the wing-defenders in Ariza and Beverly to harass James and Irving. They have a player in Howard, who could dominate the paint if he really wants to. And of course they have a superstar scorer of their own in Harden. The Rockets do one thing well defensively, and that’s force TO’s, where they rank 6th in the league. Being in such a challenging physical spot, TO’s could very well be the difference in this matchup for the Cavs. This is a strong spot for the home team, and in front of a national audience I’d expect the Rockets to play hard to try to establish themselves as one of the contenders in the eyes of the NBA fans.
Dr. Bob
Minnesota (+13) over OKLAHOMA CITY
Minnesota has the league’s biggest home-road dichotomy, as the Timberwolves are just 4-18 ATS at home but 12-6 ATS on the road, including 5-0 ATS as an underdog of more than 8 points. The T’Wolves have only lost 2 road games by more than 10 points and only 5 of 40 games by more than 13 points this season. Tonight Minnesota applies to a 116-38-2 ATS double-digit road underdog situation that plays on bad teams on a losing streak. My ratings favor OKC by just 12 points, so the line is more than fair, and I’d get 7 ½ points if I used only OKC’s home games against Minnesota’s road games. I’ll take Minnesota in a 2-Star Best Bet at +12 points or more.
Opinion - Atlanta (-4½) over MILWAUKEE
The Hawks ugly 84-107 loss at Charlotte set them up in a very good 71-18-3 ATS subset of a 158-72-5 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation tonight. Unfortunately the line on this game has gone up from the opening number of -3½ points and my ratings favor the Hawks by 3.7 points. The situation is strong enough to still lean with the Hawks and I’d play Atlanta in a 1-Star Best Bet at -4 points or less.