JR TIPS
Magic at Trail Blazers
The Orlando Magic have been dreadful away from Amway Arena of late losing seven of nine following eight consecutive victories but they might catch a break in Portland tonight if two-time All-Star Brandon Roy can't go. The Magic have a three game winning streak in Portland as they opened its four game road trip with an impressive 109-88 win in Sacramento but lost in Denver 115-97 the next night. Dwight Howard was held to eight points on 1 of 7 shooting against Denver a night after dominating the Kings with 30 points and 16 rebounds. Matt Barnes scored 28 points and has averaged 14.7 while shooting 60.0 percent in nine games since moving into the starting lineup although Rashard Lewis and Jameer Nelson have struggled as Lewis has averaged 9.9 points on 34.3 percent shooting and Nelson's been held to 7.8 points over his past four games. The Magic have won three straight in Portland, including a 109-108 win on Dec. 9, 2008, behind 27 from Lewis and 21 from Nelson. The Blazers lost 106-94 on Sunday to Cleveland which was their seventh home loss this season but bounced back by shooting a season-high 60.3 percent in a 120-108 win over Milwaukee on Wednesday although Brandon Roy left the game late in the third quarter due to a strained right hamstring. The Magic were blown out in the second half against the Nuggets because they just wore down after playing a back to back in high altitude. NBA teams that lose by 15 or more points bounce back in their next game (especially good teams) as rest and better shooting for Orlando will get them their fourth straight win in Portland against the injury-riddled Trail Blazers.
Pick ORLANDO
Craig Davis
Backed the Thunder a few nights ago and was robbed by the officials in an overtime thriller. Tonight I feel more comfortable with them traveling on the road taking on a Dallas team that is reeling, having dropped two in a row (at home, mind you) and three of their last five. Oklahoma City matches up with the Mavs very well, and if Dirk Nowitzki doesn't score his normal 30 points like he always seems to do against the Thunder, the Mavs could be in danger of losing this game SU. Both times the Thunder went into Dallas last year, they lost by a slim margin including one overtime game. OKC seems to struggle the most when facing teams that have powerful big men... but Dallas really doesn't own that. This game will come down to a battle of the guards and small forwards... and I believe OKC has just as much talent (and youth) at some major positions. The two best free throw shooting teams in the NBA might need those down the stretch. Should be a fun one to watch, but I think 5 points is too many to ask Dallas to win by... especially at home where they've lost seven times already this year. Side with the Thunder on the road tonight.
3♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Michael Cannon
New Orleans at DETROIT +2
I am now 63-45-3 with my last 111 free plays.
Take the Pistons plus the points tonight at home over the Hornets.
I realize I’m taking a chance here, but I like Detroit to build off its win Wednesday night at Washington.
I really like the Pistons if Ben Gordon and Tayshaun Prince play tonight. I know that both are questionable, but if they go tonight it give Detroit that much more firepower.
Not really impressed with the Hornets overall, and I’m not sold on them at all when playing on the road. New Orleans is just 5-14 SU on the road this year and they haven’t really blown the bottom tier teams out at home either.
The Hornets are also just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on Friday.
Take the Pistons as the small home dog tonight for your free winner.
2♦ DETROIT
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at MEMPHIS -8
You know it's a strange year in the NBA when the Grizzlies are above .500 in mid-January. Memphis has won nine of its last 12 games to go 19-18 on the season.
Success breeds inflated lines, however, and that's the case here.
This is the highest the Grizzlies have been favored since Nov. 18. Memphis has a nice blend of young talent with Rudy Gay, O.J. Mayo and Marc Gasol mixed with veterans Zach Randolph and Jamaal Tinsley.
But the Grizzlies' bench is not strong. The team is not built for covering big margins. The Grizzlies have a much more important game on tap Saturday night when they host San Antonio. That's the game they really want.
Gasol, a much improved player, is dealing with a bruised shoulder.
Minnesota is a much better team with Kevin Love back in the lineup. His presence has really helped Al Jefferson, the team's best player, who is averaging 22.3 points in the last six games.
The Timberwolves have been quite profitable as a road underdog. They are 13-6 against the spread in that role when getting five to 10 points.
Minnesota is 30-11-1 against the spread on the road when facing opponents with a winning home mark.
3♦ TIMBERWOLVES
Brett Atkins
Improved to 5-1 with my last six free plays when Fullerton won and covered at home on Thursday night against Cal Poly SLO. Tonight I'm on the NBA hardwood with a winner coming on the Rockets as they will get the cover at home over the Heat.
This is Miami’s fifth road game in the last eight days and they have to finish off this road trip with a back-to-back tomorrow in Oklahoma City. Fatigue is setting in and I’m going to cash in with the Rockets tonight.
Houston has won three straight (SU and ATS) against Miami and five of the last six, plus the Rockets have cashed in seven of the last nine series clashes. In the last three meetings between these two in Houston, the Rockets have won each by a minimum of 7 points, covering each time.
Houston got a day off to recover from that triple-OT win at home over the T-Wolves on Wednesday and come into this one having won eight straight on the home court (7-1 ATS).
Miami is giving up 106.2 points a game over its last five contests, while Houston scores 103.6 at home and limits the opposition to 99.8. The Rockets have a good mix of players that can all get it done offensively, and they have the defensive stoppers in Shane Battier and Trevor Ariza who can work together to lock down Dwyane Wade.
The Heat are just 3-7 ATS against the Western Conference and 5-16-1 against the Southwest Division. Houston is on ATS runs of 4-1 after a day off, 5-1 as a home chalk, 35-16-1 against Southeast Division teams and 41-20 after a non-cover.
The Rockets are 5-1 ATS in Miami’s last six visits to Houston and they’ll keep that streak going tonight. Lay the small chalk and go with Houston!
4♦ HOUSTON
Jay McNeil
Well, my free play Thursday on Auburn looked good for most of the team's game at Tennessee, and then the Tigers just fell apart and ended up being outscored 43-18 in the second half. But despite that loss, I'm still on a modest 14-9 run, and I've got an NBA play tonight that will get me going back in the right direction!
The Spurs are 10-1 all time against the Bobcats and have never lost to them in Charlotte. In the teams' first meeting this season, on Dec. 11 in San Antonio, the Spurs shot 71 percent from the field in the fourth quarter and won 104-85 despite committing a season-high 28 turnovers.
San Antonio has won eight of its last 10 games, including three straight, and Tim Duncan should be well rested after sitting out to rest his knees Wednesday night during the Spurs' 109-108 overtime victory at Oklahoma City.
In Duncan's absence, rookie DeJuan Blair had 28 points and 21 rebounds, and the two post players should be too much for the Bobcats to handle tonight.
And while Charlotte guard Stephen Jackson has been on fire lately, scoring a career-high 43 points Tuesday in a 102-94 win over Houston, and averaging 28 points over the Bobcats' last seven games, San Antonio has tough defenders such as Keith Bogans that can help slow him down.
The Spurs are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams, and are also on ATS runs of 8-3 overall, 7-3 as a favorite, 5-1 on the road and 5-1 as a road favorite. Take San Antonio to continue its dominance of Charlotte and cover the points tonight.
4♦ SAN ANTONIO
Chuck O'Brien
Take the Rockets and lay the couple of points against the Heat in Friday’s NBA action.
Tough to argue with Houston’s success at home this year, as it has won 12 of 16 games at the Toyota Center, going an impressive 11-5 ATS, including 7-1 ATS in the last eight. Also tough to argue with the Rockets’ recent success against the Miami Heat, as they’ve won and covered three straight meetings and gone 5-1 SU and ATS in the six (with the winner cashing in all six). Go back to 2005, and Houston is on a 7-2 ATS roll against the Heat, including 4-1 SU and ATS at home.
This year, the Rockets entertain what must be an exhausted Dwyane Wade and Co. Miami is nearing the end of a six-game road trip that began a week ago tonight in Phoenix – yep, this is the Heat’s fifth game, all on the road, since last Friday. If that’s not enough, the Heat have to play in Oklahoma City against Kevin Durant and the young, energetic Thunder tomorrow night. As a matter of fact, Miami is in the middle of a suicidal run in which it is playing 19 of 24 games on the road from Jan. 8-Feb. 20, with only a brief respite for the All-Star break mixed in at the tail end of this stretch.
As it is, Miami has dropped four of its last six on the road both SU and ATS and is just 8-9 SU and ATS over its last 17 (with the winner cashing in all 17 games). And while the Rockets are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games against teams from the Southeast Division, the Heat are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 against the Southwest Division.
5♦ HOUSTON ROCKETS
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Indiana Pacers -2.5
The Pacers are a big public play, but I feel there is still value in making a small play on them tonight. Yes, the Pacers are just 3-16 on the road this season, but the Nets are only 2-16 at home. Plus, I would expect Indiana to have a better road record had Danny Granger and Troy Murphy not missed so much action this season. I think this line is more representative of the Pacers without those two in the lineup. The key is the Nets are just 3-12 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. Plus, the favorite is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. I just don't think New Jersey has the horses to keep up with a Pacers team that has now broke the century mark in 4 straight games tonight. Take the Pacers.
Spartan
OKL +5 vs DAL
The Thunder mounted a tremendous rally last time out against the Spurs but fell just short in the end. Now they venture just a little south to butt heads with the Mavericks. I do not tend to hang my hat on trends to the extreme but there is one stubborn fact here that cannot be overlooked guys. This Dallas team is a pathetic 1-12 against the number in their last 13 home contests. That's pretty glaring. The Mav's have simply been too inconsistent of late to have much confidence in, I do suspect they likely will prevail here tonight as they know full and well they have a rugged five game road trip looming after this game tonight. However, I fully expect the Thunder to take this game to the very end and will gladly take the five points. This should be a good one guys but the value is with the dog!
Ben Burns
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals
Prediction: Washington Capitals
This play is too "expensive" to qualify as one of my guaranteed selections. In fact, I'll probably take a little heat for releasing it as one of my complimentary plays. That said, I've had plenty of success picking my spots with larger favorites over the years and feel that this will prove to be another good one.
For starters, the Capitals are a much better team than the Leafs. If the teams played 100 times, the Caps would win a large majority of them. Currently, Washington has 62 points and is comfortably on top of the Southeast Division. On the other hand, Toronto has 41 points, firmly entrenched in the basement of the Northeast.
The Caps are also playing on home ice. They're 14-3-3 (14-6 vs. ml) here on the season. The Leafs are 7-13-4 (7-17 vs. ml) on the road.
The Leafs are 6-16 (-9.2) against teams with a winning record. The Caps are 16-7 (+3.6) vs. teams with a losing record.
Additionally, the Caps have the schedule in their favor. They had last night off. The Leafs, on the other hand, are off a win vs. Philadelphia last night. That's noteworthy as they're 2-10 their last 12, when playing the second of back to back games.
The Leafs won't catch the Caps looking past them either, as they've actually beaten them twice in a row. (Both games were at Toronto.)
With the Caps at 15-5 (+8.8) when playing with 'revenge,' if you don't mind laying some extra juice for a game that's got an extra strong chance of winning, consider laying the wood with Washington.
TEDDY COVERS
Loyola-Chicago @ Illinois-Chicago
PICK: Loyola-Chicago +1.5
The Illinois-Chicago Flames have dominated this in-city rivalry for the last two years, winning each of the last five meetings between these two squads. This year, however, the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers are the superior squad. And make no mistake about it – Jim Whitesell’s crew is hungry to break their losing streak against their cross-town rivals.
Loyola has three distinct advantages in this ballgame. First, they are the deeper team. Jimmy Collins plays three of his starters for nearly 35 minutes per game, while Whitesell has eight guys in his rotation averaging between 13 and 30 minutes. The Ramblers should be the fresher team down the stretch tonight.
Loyola’s second major edge is their ability to shoot the basketball, or, more specifically, UIC’s inability to make shots. The Flames are a truly awful offensive basketball team, ranked #326th in the country in shooting percentage (37.6%). Leading scorer Robo Kreps is a brick waiting to happen, and his starting backcourt mate Zavion Neely is shooting at a 22 percent clip from three point land. Loyola’s defensive stopper, Terrance Hill, will be matched up against Kreps, making things even tougher for the Flames on the offensive end here.
Last, but not least, Loyola is the vastly superior rebounding squad, thanks to Andy Polka, a cerebral interior player who always seems to be in the right position to snare the board. Polka leads the Horizon League in rebounding this season, bad news for a UIC team that has been outrebounded by nearly seven boards per game.
Loyola was 11-2 before an early January three game hiccup. They’ve won outright at Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Bradley, Holy Cross and SIU-Edwardsville already this year. Facing a struggling 5-11 Flames squad, look for the Ramblers to get their revenge at the Pavilion tonight, in this ESPNU TV matchup. 2* Take Loyola-Chicago
Hollywood Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks
Dallas (25-13) tries to avoid three-straight losses at home after dropping their last two games against the Lakers (100-95) and the Jazz (111-93). The Mavericks' defense has waned over their last three games as they are allowing 107.6 PPG and 53.1% shooting from the field. Dallas should regain their defensive presence and coach Rick Carlisle is committed to re-establishing a defense that is 3rd in the Western Conference by holding their opponents to just 44.8% shooting from the field. Said Carlisle: "Our problems are at the defensive end ... That's the biggest thing we've got to work to resolve. We've shown we can be a good defensive team. We've just got to keep with it." The Mavericks have enjoyed great success in containing the Thunder's Kevin Durant. Durant scores only 13.7 PPG against the Mavs -- which is his least productive scoring against all the teams in the NBA. Oklahoma City (21-17) comes off a disappointing 109-108 overtime loss to the Spurs. After four straight home games, the Thunder now embark on the road where they shoot only 44.8% from the field. Oklahoma City has underachieved as of late as they have failed to cover the spread in five of their last seven games. The Mavericks should bounce back and win convincingly at home tonight. Lay the points with Dallas.
Black Widow
1* on Oklahoma City Thunder +5
Oklahoma City has been a very reliable team to back when coming off a loss or a game where they failed to cover. The Thunder are 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season and 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) after 1 or more consecutive losses this season. Meanwhile, Dallas has not fared well in the role of the home favorite this season. The Mavs are 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) as a home favorite this season and 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread this season. The Thunder are right in the thick of the playoff hunt in the Western Conference with a 21-17 record this season. This team has been underrated all year, especially on the road where they are 10-8 S.U. & 12-6 ATS. They have won 8 of their last 11 games overall. This is a young team, but they don't play like it. Take the Thunder and the points.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Sacramento Kings +3
Look for the Kings to pull off the small upset tonight as they get a nice lift from the return of leading scorer Kevin Martin. It's hard to justify the 76ers laying more than a deuce at home against a team with 3 more wins on the season, especially since the 76ers are just 3-15 ATS in home games this season. What makes matters worse is they are 0-7 ATS home games after playing a game as favorite this season. While the Kings are just 3-13 on the road, they are 9-6-1 ATS in those games. Plus Sacramento will be out for revenge here after losing to the 76ers at home back on December 30th. Both Tyreke Evans and Kevin Martin didn't play in that game. With both in the lineup tonight, I expect the Kings to improve to 10-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, and 6-1-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a road underdog. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
ATLANTA –4½ over Phoenix
The Suns are still considered to be one of the elite teams in the Association and that perception can be taken advantage of. Its stock is going to plummet real soon. Phoenix is 24-15 and that’s because of a 15-4 home record and a good start on the road. However, they’ve lost eight of its last nine road games and that includes a loss in Indiana in which they blew a 24-point lead. No way do they get a big lead on this host. The Hawks play tremendous defense and that’s a problem for Phoenix. The Hawks also have a slew of offensive weapons in which any one of six guys can get hot and against the defense they’ll face here, all six could have big games. The Suns record masks its shortcomings but the fact is they rank 29th in the NBA defensively and after playing its last five games against Sacramento, Houston, Miami, Milwaukee and Indiana and not fairing so good, they’re about to take a huge step up in class and will get exposed by this well-balanced and very dangerous Hawks team. Atlanta is heating up again with four wins in five games and should have its way against this extremely overrated and soft visitor. Play: Atlanta –4½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
CHARLOTTE +1.15 over San Antonio
The Spurs are hot, very hot in fact and last game could’ve been the coming out party for DeJuan Blair. Tim Duncan was a late scratch and Blair stepped in and didn’t look out of place for a second. Blair went off for 28 points and 21 boards and was the difference in the Spurs one-point OT win over the Thunder. It was a nice win in a place they’ve had trouble winning in the past and now they’ll face an Eastern opponent that they don’t see very often. The Spurs continue on its road trip with games against Memphis and New Orleans after this one, so don’t be surprised to see them take a night off here. We’ve seen this guest pull a whole bunch of no-shows this year already and this could certainly be one of those times. Besides, the Cats are playing decent and should be the more intense of the two. Charlotte has won six of its last seven and that includes a win in Cleveland and this would be another signature win for them. Play: Charlotte +1.15 (Risking 2 units).
Milwaukee +1.48 over GOLDEN STATE
Something really smells fishy about this one. The Warriors opened as a 4½-point favorite and they’re getting hammered by the public yet the line has dropped. The NBA is very much like the NFL in that it takes a ton of action and the books are so sharp in this sport. We saw this same scenario last night when the public was hammering the Celtics but the line dropped anyway and Chicago won outright. The Bucks are a pitiful road team while the Warriors play with a ton of energy at home and usually give even the best team’s fits. This one is all about spotting a rat and playing against it. Play: Milwaukee +1.48 (Risking 2 units).
Northern Colorado/PORTLAND ST. over 155
There aren’t too many people who know just how potent both these teams offense’s are. The beauty of betting college basketball is that lesser known schools fall through the cracks because they are never mentioned or featured on television. I’m here to tell you there probably isn’t going to be another game this season when two incredible offenses face off against each other. Firstly, let’s mention the three point shooting; Northern Colorado has six players that average over two three point shots a game and as a team they shoot 39.6%. That statistic puts them in the top 30 in College Basketball but believe it or not, Portland State does even better. Portland State shoots an incredible 42.1% from three while utilizing the shot on 35% of their possessions, a staggering success ratio that unfortunately hasn’t translated into victories. The reason for that is because of the atrocious defense played by Portland State, who allows opponents to shoot an embarrassing 42.1% on threes and 54.5% on twos. Northern Colorado allows opponents to shoot 34.1% on threes and when you add everything up it’s a classic case of two teams with great offenses and terrible defenses facing each other in what will undoubtedly be a high scoring game. It’s hard to fathom a total being set this low for two teams who clearly can shoot with any school on the planet, but this is the case tonight and I’m not going to back away. Play: Northern Colorado/Portland St. over 155 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).