Drew Gordon
Sacramento at PHILADELPHIA -3
37-24-3 roll L64 Free Plays, incl. 5-1 L6! For today's complimentary play, we're looking at the Kings/76ers match up.
This is an interesting game, because people who follow the Kings know they are only profitable in this spot, as a road dog. Sacto is 8-2-1 ATS in their L11 in that position, and while that may seem tempting, especially with their best player back and playing where they're playing, I'm not buying it.
Yes, the 76ers are a pathetic 3-15 ATS at the Wachovia Center, but if betting NBA games was as easy as compiling a bunch of trends, then I wouldn't have a job! Guys, it simply "too easy" to bet the Kings tonight, as the public has jumped all over them in this match up (more than 80% on Sacramento), and as always that should send up a major red flag!
In fact, while the return of Kevin Martin will mean good things in the long-term, his return could screw with the current chemistry they have with star rookie Tyreke Evans running the show. Point guards don't like to split duties with anyone, especially two "shoot-first" PGs!
Finally, I like what I've seen from the 76ers of late, going 5-4 SUATS over their L9 games. All of a sudden, we're starting to see some value with the 76ers at home, as oddsmakers make it increasingly cheaper to bet this team based on their atrocious home record ATS. They've played well in their L3 games, with wins at Detroit and vs New Orleans, and I suspect another strong effort against a very beatable Kings squad dealing with some lineup issues.
Take Philadelphia over Sacramento in this NBA match up.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
Chris Jordan
No. Colorado at PORTLAND STATE +2'
I'm playing the Vikings tonight, as the home pup gets the easy money.
Northern Colorado is a very good basketball team, as evidenced by its six-game win streak, but I cannot ignore the fact Portland State has a 10-0 lead in all-time series with Northern Colorado - including a 6-0 mark since the Bears joined the Big Sky for the 2006-07 season.
This is a Portland State team that is going to be there in the end, challenging for the Big Sky title. The Vikes made a run to the Big Dance last season, and with six letterwinners back, I think they've set a return date to get back to the postseason.
There's no doubt about it that PSU is underachieving right now. I don't know if this team should be 15-1, 14-2, 13-3 ... you get the point; but it could very well be 11-5, rather than 7-9.
And you know who realizes this? The oddsmakers.
Otherwise the 15-3 Bears would be much bigger favorites in this situation.
But they're not, and it could very well be because the Vikings have the Big Sky's highest-scoring offense, averaging 77.6 points a game.
Take the home pup ... it's the easy play in this game.
3♦ PORTLAND STATE
Scott Delaney
Northern Arizona +2 at Eastern Washington
Mike Adras has to be fed up with his team right about now, and knowing him, he will have the fire sparked under his Lumberjacks for this trip to the Northwest.
The 'Jacks come into this game after suffering an embarrassing, 87-62 setback to Weber State - the ninth loss on the year for Northern Arizona, which fell to a paltry 1-4 in Big Sky play.
And again, Adras does not settle for mediocrity. He's a master at bringing the best out of his players, no matter the talent level.
The Eagles have been unable to play well defensively, And though the Lumberjacks have been mediocre in averaging just 68.5 points per game, they've shot a respectable 45.2 percent shooting effort.
I'm looking for that breakout game tonight.
3♦ NORTHERN ARIZONA
Tony Weston
Just a horrible outcome last night as the Cavaliers dominated the game from start to near finish. But a miracle three by a guy on a 10-day contract does in Cleveland and costs us.
That’s fine. I can’t dwell on that and I won’t.
I’m focused on tonight and focused on cashing in with the Spurs who will get over on the Bobcats.
Coming into this game the Spurs have cashed in each of their last 2 games and have covered in 8 of their last 11 games, including 3 of their last 4 on the road.
The Bobcats, on the other hand, have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 overall, including 2 of their last 3 at home.
Most importantly, the Spurs are 7-2-1 ATS their last 10 games against the Bobcats and have covered in 5 of their last 6 against Charlotte, including covers in each of their last two meetings.
When these two hooked up back in December the Spurs destroyed the Bobcats, winning 104-85 as a 7 1/2 point favorite.
Tonight, San Antonio will cash in against the Bobcats.
3♦ SPURS
Tony George
ORL -4.5 vs POR
Portland a Home Dog of +4.5 ? REALLY?? OH YEAH I WILL Tell you WHY!
While I have a Big TOP PLAY tonight in the NBA this is a good game to bet. I cannot fathom this line or a team like the Blazers in the Rose Garden as a dog against a team in disary that has lost 5 out of 7 games, many to lesser teams than the Blazers who are always tough at home.
This also is the third game of a west coast swing roadie for the Magic, who are off a 18 point woodshed beating at the hands of the Nuggets.
NOT SO FAST MY FRIEND!! Brandon Roy is OUT with a bad hamstring...THAT IS A HUGE LOSS FOR AN ALREADY DEPLETED ROSTER for the Blazers.
This line will go down slightly...but Lay it with the Magic to get back on track and DOMINATE the paint in this game.
LAY THE WOOD WITH ORLANDO.
King Creole
TOR +2.5 vs NYK
Big time REST advantage for the Toronto Raptors, who have been waiting around in the Big Apple for a couple of days as the Knicks finished up their 3-game road trip. So it's a 3-1 rest advantage for the visitors in this game. That sets up a real nice System which has been perfect thus far in the month of January.
6-0 ATS in January: All NBA teams with 3 or MORE days rest (TORONTO)... versus any opponent with only 1 day rest (New York).
'Short' division road dogs (like the Raptors tonight) have been very profitable in the 2009/2010 season.14-7 ATS this season: All division road dogs of 4 1 point playing off a SU division road DOG win (New York). When facing a division opponent AGAIN, these teams have gone a PERFECT 0-3 ATS this year.