Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 20

Marc Lawrence

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavs and Bulls battle at the 'Q' in Cleveland Friday night in this division clash. Chicago takes the floor off a 21-point home win over the Suns on Tuesday, while Cleveland dropped a 10-point decision to the Warriors the same night. That serves the Cavs well as they are 9-2 ATS at home in this series when playing off a previous home loss, including 3-0 ATS when taking points. Look for history to repeat itself once again tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Cleveland.

Matt Fargo

Atlanta Hawks vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Play: Atlanta Hawks +6

The Sixers come into Friday coming off a loss against Denver and while a bounceback will be expected by some, I don't see it against another quality team. Philadelphia has played a pretty easy schedule to get to its 10-4 record this season and those four losses came against arguably the four top quality teams it has faced. Add number five to the list on Friday. Not only have the Sixers played an easy schedule overall, as it is ranked 30th in the NBA, but there have been other beneficial factors explained later. Atlanta has been playing solid all season long as it is 11-4, a half game up in the Southeast Division over Orlando. Three of those losses came against three of the other top five teams in the Eastern Conference, Miami, Chicago and Indiana, so the only bad blemish so far was an 11-point loss at Houston which happened to come right before a game against the Heat. The Hawks are an average 4-3 on the road but this line is considered great value for a team that has every chance of winning this one outright. Injuries have hurt Atlanta as it has been without Kirk Hinrich the whole season and now forward Al Horford is lost for at least the entire regular season. Since Horford has been out, the Hawks have gone 4-0 and while this is the first road game since then, this should not be an issue. Good team are able to replace fallen starters and the Hawks are doing that with Josh Smith, and Joe Johnson, as they are being asked to do more of what they've always done while a variety of role players fill in the gaps. That isn't always a bad thing. The Sixers have had the luxury of playing seven games this season with key players missing from the opposition so not only have they played the leagues easiest schedule, they have had help along the way. It can be argued that the Hawks can be added to that list with Horford but this is his fifth game without him so that should not go into that grouping. Atlanta's start is much more impressive despite a schedule that saw it open with a league-high nine games in 12 days following training camp.

Stephen Nover

Atlanta @ Philadelphia
PICK: Philadelphia -6 5

Philadelphia has been dominant this season at home going 6-1 straight-up and ATS at home.

The 76ers have won their home games by an average of 23 points! Philadelphia did lose its last home contest, getting edged in overtime by Denver this past Wednesday. There's no shame in that.

I see the 76ers bouncing back at home following a day of rest against Atlanta. The Hawks are 4-0 since losing All-Star center Al Horford. Josh Smith and Joe Johnson have done a nice job stepping up in Horford's absence.

But this is a flat spot for the Hawks. It's their first road game in nine days and only away matchup during an 11-day span. The Hawks not only are without Horford, but also Kirk Hinrich. Injuries are even more crucial because of the condensed schedule caused by the lockout.

Doug Collins has transformed the 76ers into one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference. The 76ers rank No. 2 defensively giving up 87.4 points a game and No. 3 on offense averaging 101 points. They turn the ball over the fewest times and have perhaps the best trio of reserves in Lou Williams, Thaddeus Young and Evan Turner.

The marketplace tends to underrate the 76ers. Philadelphia has the best pointspread record of any Eastern Conference team at 10-3-1.

Atlanta has played a more difficult schedule than Philadelphia. I acknowledge that. But Collins has given the 76ers the eye of the tiger. The 76ers, following their home loss to the Nuggets, want to reassert themselves and make a statement that they can beat good teams at home, too. This is their chance.

I am riding a 15-2 hot streak on my last 17 NBA guaranteed and free selections and have a big 10-Star Bookie Buster play going tonight.

Rob Vinciletti

Washington vs Carolina
Play: Washington

The Capitals have taken 11 of the last 14 in this series against Carolina, including all 3 affairs this season, winning the last one just this Sunday. The Caps have won 2 of 3 this season off a shutout win and 13 of 20 vs losing teams. They have done much of their damage vs Divisional teams winning 8 of 10. Carolina has dropped 9 of 13 with 2 days rest and 16 of 24 vs winning teams. In divisional games they are an anemic 2-10 this season. look for Washington to take another from Carolina here tonight.

Jim Feist

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pick: Minnesota Timberwolves

This Minnesota team is improved, close to a .500 despite being in last place. They are 9th in the NBA in rebounding, led by Kevin Love, and have upgraded the offense with Ricky Rubio. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Clippers are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing straight record. The Timberwolves are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Los Angeles and the road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Play the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Sean Murphy

Florida Panthers @ Chicago Blackhawks
PICK: Chicago Blackhawks

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The Blackhawks have proven to be a streaky team this season, and right now, they're surging, having won four of their last five overall - scoring 22 goals in the process. When this team gets rolling, it can be awfully tough to stop.

This is another opportunity for the 'Hawks to pad their record at home, where they've been outstanding this season, going 18-9 SU.

The Panthers are reeling, losers of three in a row, and five of their last six overall.

After a hot start, Florida has cooled off considerably, really going all teh way back to the second week of December. Since December 9th, the Panthers have posted a 5-12 SU record.

The road hasn't been particularly kind to Florida lately, in fact, it hasn't won away from home since way back on December 8th in Boston. Since the, the Panthers have dropped seven in a row on the highway.

This doesn't appear to be a favorable spot for Florida to right the ship. When these two teams met at the United Center last season, the Blackhawks skated to an easy 4-0 victory. Their first meeting this season was a lot closer, with Chicago prevailing 3-2 in a shootout. However, that game was played in Florida, where the Panthers have suffered only five regulation time losses in 22 games this season.

This line has dropped considerably since opening, leaving us with a nice opportunity to get behind one of the league's best teams, at a reasonable price, against a slumping opponent.

NHL Predictions

Chicago Blackhawks -½ -111

The Florida Panthers have lost three straight coming into tonight, including two tough losses in their past two games. On Monday the Panthers outplayed the Bruins but fell 3-2 in a shootout, and on Wednesday night the Panthers blew a 3-1 lead to lose 4-3 in overtime in Colorado. Florida has won just three games in their last 12 overall. They are 10-9-4 on the season. The Blackhawks on the other hand have won 4 of their last 5 games, and 4 straight on home ice. Their latest win was a 6-2 thumping of the Sabres on Wednesday night, where we also had them to win in regulation. The Blackhawks are 18-5-4 at home this season. Chicago's last 9 home wins have come in regulation. Take note that Chicago is averaging 4.40 goals per game over their last 5, and 3.2 goals per game this season (also a higher 3.52 goals/game at home). The Panthers are averaging just 2 goals per game in their last 5, while giving up 3.20 goals against. On the season Florida is scoring an average of 2.5 goals per game. Note that the Panthers are 0-7 in their last 7 games as a road underdog, and 1-5 in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Although this is a East vs West match up the Panthers are just 2-5-1 in their last 8 meetings in Chicago. Right now the Blackhawks are playing great hockey, while Florida seems to be falling off a bit. Look for Chicago to keep rolling tonight, and I think we have value in the regulation win tonight.

SPORTS WAGERS

CAROLINA +107 over Washington

When the Capitals went into Montreal on Wednesday they were getting a takeback of +117. They beat the Habs 3-0 and now they're a -117 in Carolina? That alone tells us that we're going with the best of it in terms of value. These two played last Sunday in Washington and while the Caps did win 2-1, they were outshot 44-24. Add to the mix that this game is sandwiched between that win in Montreal and a featured NBC game on Sunday afternoon (12:30 PM start) against the Penguins and this one has even more appeal. Washiongton has won four of five but it's not believable. They continue to produce less scoring chances per games than anyone. Over its last 10 games (207 shots), the Caps are averaging about seven shots on net per period. Meanwhile, the 'Canes are playing much better lately. Joel Skinner is back and Eric Staal is producing again. Carolina has picked up points in three of its last four games and that includes a win over the Bruins and an OT loss in Pittsburgh. The 'Canes have won five of their past seven home games. Aside from that aformentioned win over Boston, they also beat New Jersey and Ottawa. They deserved to win in Washington last Sunday and now they catch those same Caps at precisely the right time. Wrong side favored. Play: Carolina +115 (Risking 2 units).

Tampa Bay +128 over DALLAS

Dallas has dropped three in a row and they continue to struggle offensively without the services of Jamie Benn and Mike Ribeiro. That pair remains out and as a result, Dallas has scored just three goals over its last three games. The Lightning snapped an ugly seven-game slide against the Bruins in their last game and one win does wonders for team morale. With its 1-3-1 trap style, the Bolts are likely not going to give up many scoring chances to this offensively challenged host. These two rarely play one another and with already low attendance and this one not having much appeal to the locals, a small crowd with no atmosphere can't help the Stars chances either. Play: Tampa Bay +128 (Risking 2 units).

David Banks

Timberwolves / Clippers Under

Western Conference action closes out ESPNs Friday night double-header when Kevin Love and the Minnesota Timberwolves (6-8, 9-5 ATS) invade Tinseltown to body up with Blake Griffin and the Los Angeles Clippers (8-4, 7-5 ATS); tip-off from the Staples Center is set to go at 10:30 ET.

Yes, the Timberwolves still bring up the rear of the Northwest Division with a 6-8 SU record, but Head Coach Rick Adelman has what has been a defunct franchise ever since Kevin Garnett took his game to Beantown on the up and up at the start of the young season. Reason being, Minny is not devoid of talent anymore evidenced by the impressive 1-2 punch of Kevin Love and rookie sensation Ricky Rubio. When taking a gander at the Timberwolves stat leaders, youll notice both Love and Rubio leading in a number of categories. However, the main reason Minnesota checks in as the fourth best bet in the league is due to its play at the defensive end of the court where its allowed the opposition to score an average of just 92.5 PPG (#11) on 43.2 percent shooting from the field. Theyll invade Hollywood winners in three of their L/4 (3-1 ATS) and with 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS marks as a visitor.

You know, this Clippers team just might be one of the better teams the Western Conference has to offer this season. Even though injuries have kept some of their All Stars out of action Chris Paul is currently sidelined with a hamstring injury Coach Vinnie Del Negros squad has still taken care of business to the tune of playing .667 ball and treating their betting backers kindly by covering on seven of 12 occasions. Blake Griffin continues to be a beast (21.2 PPG), but hes getting solid contributions from Paul, Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler and Mo Williams who are all averaging better than 10 points per game. Last we saw the Clip Joint in action, they scored a last second outright win over the defending champion Dallas Mavericks as underdogs to move to 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS as a host.

After dropping these teams first meeting of the 2010-11 season (113-111), the Clippers went on to win and cover the next three to move to 6-4 SU & 5-5 ATS in these conference rivals L/10 overall meetings; the under is 6-4 during that stretch. The road team has covered eight of the L/11 overall meetings, while the under has cashed five of the L/6 times these teams went at it in the Staples Center. Minnesota has covered five of its L/6 road games, but stands just 5-11 ATS the L/16 times it faced a Pacific division opponent. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS as favorites this season, but owns a poor 2-7 ATS record the L/9 times they took on a sub .500 opponent.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAYS

Indiana/ Golden State Over 188.5: Warrior games are beginning to look a little like last year as their last 6 games have averaged 208.7 ppg. In the last 5 games their offense has put up 102.6 ppg on a very nice 47.9 % shooting, while they have looked bad at the defensive end, allowing 104.6 ppg on 47.1% shooting over that stretch. The Warriors have averaged 94.7 ppg at home, but in their last 2 home games in regulation they have averaged 102.5 ppg and those 2 games were vs Miami and Orlando, which are 2 pretty good defensive teams. Indiana has not had great success at the offensive end this year (92.8 ppg), but this team does have scorers on their team and they should have an easier time tonight vs a GS defense that is beginning to look like the bad versions of years past. Indiana is a defensive minded team, as they are in the top 7 of every major defensive category, but I feel they will have a hard time slowing down the Warriors and their uptempo style tonight. The Over is 14-5 the last 19 in this series, with each of the last 10 between these two team putting up at least 202 points. I expect this one to eclipse 200 as well. KEY TRENDS--- INDIANA is 50-25 OVER in road games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1996, while GOLDEN STATE is 20-5 OVER in January games over the last 2 seasons.

POWER ANGLE PLAY

Denver -7 over WASHINGTON: The Nuggets have gone 12-5 ATS the last 17 in the series, while they have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings, with each one of those wins coming by double digits. Now Denver comes in playing some of the better ball in the league are they are facing the worst team in the league. Washington is off a shocking home win over a very good Thunder team, but they are still 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS on the year. Denver checks in at 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS on the year. The Nuggets have really had their offense cranking of late as they have averaged a healthy 109.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while for the year they are 2nd in scoring (104.8 ppg) and 2nd in FG% (28.3%). Washington has scored 100+ points in their last 2 games, but they have still averaged just 87.6 ppg on the year, while at home they have averaged just 91.5 ppg. Defense has been a problem for this team, especially of late as they have allowed 109.8 ppg in their last 4 games and that number doesn't figure to get much better vs the Nuggets tonight. This could be a flat spot for the Nuggets after their big win over Philly and now taking on the worst team in the league, but that win by the Wiz over the Thunder should have the attention of this Denver squad and they will come in fully focused. Washing has lost 10 of their 12 games by at least 8 points and that will continue tonight with a solid DD win by Denver here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in non-conference games, off a close home win by 3 points or less.

2 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia/ Atlanta Over 184: The Hawks realize that they need to play an uptempo game in order to use the athletic ability of their team. This team has plenty of scorers, but they don't play well in a halfcourt offense. Tonight they get to play a high scoring Philly team that does like to run. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

1 UNIT PLAY

Memphis/ Detroit Under 180: MEMPHIS is 25-9 UNDER in road games after 2 straight games where they had 10 or more steals since 1996. Both offenses have been futile this year and I expect it continue tonight.

Rocketman

Sacramento @ San Antonio
Play: San Antonio -11

Sacramento is 1-7 SU and ATS on the road this year. Sacramento is scoring only 90.3 points per game overall this year and 84.5 points per game on the road this season. Sacramento is allowing 100.9 points per game overall this year and 103.5 points per game on the road this season. So, the Kings are getting beat by 18 points per game on the road this year. San Antonio is a perfect 9-0 SU at home this year where they are scoring 103.4 points per game and allowing only 90.3 points per game this year. Kings are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. Kings are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games as an underdog. Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Kings are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games. Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog. Kings are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Kings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater. Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Kings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater. Kings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win. Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference. Kings are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Home team is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Kings are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio. We'll recommend a small play on San Antonio tonight!

Jack Jones

Memphis Grizzlies -4

The Memphis Grizzlies are showing solid value Friday as a mere 4-point road favorite over the lowly Detroit Pistons. Memphis continues to impressive after their playoff run last season, while Detroit remains a bottom feeder in this league. This one certainly has blowout written all over it tonight.

Detroit is 3-12 SU & 4-11 ATS in all games this season. As you can see, they have made faders a lot of money this year already. The Pistons are only scoring 85.0 points/game this season on 42.5 percent shooting. They are giving up 94.7 points/game on 47.1 percent shooting, and getting outscored by 9.7 points/game.

The Grizzlies come in red hot, putting together a 4-game winning streak with four straight wins by six points or more. What's most impressive is that they are shooting 48.6 percent as a team during this stretch despite playing without Zach Randolph.

Memphis is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 meetings with Detroit, winning each by six points or more. The Grizzlies are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. Memphis is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. The Grizzlies are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. The Pistons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. Bet Memphis Friday.

SPORTS WAGERS

DETROIT +3½/+146 over Memphis

The Grizzlies come in with a 7-6 record after reeling off four consecutive victories. One of those wins was by 16 over the Bulls. The Pistons come in with three wins in 15 games and losers of three straight and nine of 10. On paper, it sure looks like Memphis should have its way here. Not so fast. The Pistons are much closer to respectability than they're getting credit for and that's certainly reflected in this small number put out by the books. Every quarter of just about every game, the Pistons are improving. Their five starters (Tayshaun Prince, Ben Wallace, Greg Monroe, Ben Gordon and Brandon Knight) could crack almost any other starting five in the league. They're working hard and they don't quit. In this unrelenting schedule, if Memphis figures to come in here and leave with an easy victory they're in for a big surprise. The Grizz have just two road wins in six games and this is not an easy out. Sell high and buy low. Play: Detroit +3½ (Risking 1.06 units to win 2). Play: Detroit +146 (Risking 1 unit).

ORLANDO -4½ over L.A. Lakers

Once again, we'll look to fade the Lakers until they show us something different. They were a 5½-point pooch last night in Miami and that 11-point loss is a flattering score. The Lakers trailed by 23 with six minutes to go. Now they'll get right back to work after Kobe Bryant logged another 41 minutes yesterday. It'll be the Lakers seventh game in 10 nights and tail end of back-to-backs. Both Kobe and Pau Gasol appeared gassed last night and there was no Dwight Howard in the middle making life miserable for both. After last night's loss, the Lakers are now 1-5 on the road with all losses being by nine or more. The Magic are 10-4. Their two home losses were to the Spurs and Bulls. The Magic are in the top 10 in the league in both points for and points against and once again the Lakers are getting too much love, based on reputation and not reality. Play: Orlando -4½ (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).

CLEVELAND +175 over Chicago

The advice here is to bet this sooner rather than later because Derrick Rose is listed as a game time decision. With a painful turf-toe injury, our resources informs us that Rose missed the morning shootaround and is highly doubtful to see any playing time here. Once that`s confirmed you could see the line drop a bit. The Bulls are deep and still capable of winning without him, but there are some warning signs. Chicago is 13-3 and will come in here with no sense of urgency whatsoever. The Bulls have had one of the easiest schedules in the Association. A close look shows that Chicago's last six games have come against Phoenix, Memphis (a 16-point loss), Toronto, Boston, Washington, Minnesota and Detroit. They also had earlier games against Sacramento and Detroit again. There is a price to play for having so many easy games and that price is that it does not prepare you for tougher games. This one is going to be difficult. Cleveland returned home from a grueling seven-game road trip and promptly lost to Golden State with this game on deck. That's excusable. The Cavs went 3-4 on said trip and prior to that they had won two straight at home. Kyle Irving is getting more comfortable and confident every game. The kid is truly everything they said he was and more. The Cavs are an outstanding rebounding team, which has helped quietly lead them to a 6-7 record with just four games at home all year. Expected sellout should help amp up undervalued club. Play: Cleveland +175 (Risking 2 units).

Free NHL Play for 1/20: We're siding with the Washington Capitals -115 (5Dimes) over the Carolina Hurricanes. Washington is showing alot of value tonight as they look to continue their recent dominance against Carolina. The Capitals still have a poor road record at 8-12-1 which is why we are getting them at such a low price. However, they have won 8 of their last 9 vs the Hurricanes, and 4 straight now at the RPG Center including a 5-1 victory in their last visit. Carolina has been on the losing end of two hard-fought games in a row, and have dropped six of their last nine. The Hurricanes are 11-11-3 at home but they have allowed more goals than they have scored, avering 2.64 goals/game while allowing 2.84 goals/game. The Hurricanes are just 6-15 in their last 21 vs. the Eastern Conference, and they sit at the very bottom of the barrel with only 40 points. Meanwhile the Capitols are 6-1 in their last 7 games vs the Eastern Conference, 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite of -110 to -150, and 8-3 in their last 11 games when playing on 1 days rest. Take the Capitols -115. Thank You and Good Luck! *Our Free Picks are now 144-79-1. Sign up today to receive all of our Free Plays via email.*