WUNDERDOG
Denver at Washington
Pick: Denver -7
The Washington Wizards pulled a huge upset in their last game at home vs. Oklahoma City as a +10.5 point underdog. Coming back as a home dog again in their next game leaves this 2-12 team very vulnerable as history shows they often letdown. At the same time their opponent, who may have taken this game lightly, bears down a little more and doesn't take the game for granted. The Wizards' wins have been rare this season and their covers after a win lately have been even rarer as they are 13-38 ATS after a straight-up win. Contrast that record with the Nuggets' momentum off a win that has seen them race to the cash window at 23-5-1 ATS following a win. Play on Denver.
Accuscore
Philadelphia 76ers -6 vs. Atlanta Hawks
This will be the first road game for the Hawks since losing Al Horford for the season. Atlanta has won four in a row since the injury, but all four were at home. The Sixers meanwhile are 6-1 at home and feature the best defensive efficiency in the NBA.
Denver Nuggets -7 at Washington Wizards
Denver is already 2-0 on its current road trip, and had last night off. The Nuggets are also 6-1 against the spread on the road this season. The Wizards, despite their shocking win over the Thunder Wednesday night, are still the worst team in the NBA at 2-12.
Dave Price
1 Unit Orlando Magic -4
With last night's 11-point loss in Miami, the Lakers fell to 1-5 SU and ATS on the road. Expect their road woes to continue tonight in Orlando. Dating back to last season, the Lakers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. The Magic are coming off an overtime loss to San Antonio Wednesday but are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a defeat. We'll lay the points.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Bucks/Knicks UNDER 190
The Knicks have come in under the number in 7 of their last 8 games and haven't scored more than 93 points in their last 6. I expect their offensive struggles to continue tonight against a rested Milwaukee team. The Bucks have played to the under in 17 of their last 20 games when playing on 2 days' rest. We've seen just 178.8 total points scored on average in these contests. We'll take the Under.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit Kings/Spurs OVER 196.5
Expect plenty of scoring in San Antonio tonight as a pair of rested teams go head-to-head. The Spurs have been at their best offensively at home where they are scoring 103.4 points per game. They should have little trouble putting the ball in the basket tonight versus a Sacramento team that is giving up 103.5 points per game on the road. The Sacramento offense has struggled the last six games but showed signs of life Wednesday by scoring 92 points in a win over the Pacers despite shooting just 30.1% from the field. The low shooting percentage doesn't come as that big of a shocker considering Indiana ranks No. 1 in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. The shots will fall easier tonight against a San Antonio defense that is allowing its foes to shoot 45.6% from the field (24th in the NBA) These two played to the over in each of last season's three meetings, combining for 213, 211 and 216 total points. Going back further, we find that the over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings in this series and 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Antonio. It is also worth noting that San Antonio is 23-10 over as a favorite of 10 or more points since the start of the 2009 season. We've seen an average of 208.6 total points scored in these games. Bet the Over.
King Creole
Youngstown St +3
Another Conference REVENGER for Friday night. And this one (Penguins) has been DYNAMITE as of late when playing with Double 'R'.
34-10 ATS so far this season: All Conference underdogs playing with 'LSR2' (last season DOUBLE Revenge) and off a SU loss (YOUNG ST) vs any opponent off a SU win (Wisc-Milw). When these teams are getting LESS than (<) 10 points, the results are already 21-2 ATS on the year. And if their favored opponent is also off an ATS win in their last game (like the Panthers are), the results are a PERFECT 15-0 ATS!
As I mentioned in the first line, Youngstown State has been cashing BIG-TIME as of late when playing with the motivation of 'Double R'.
The PENGUINS are a PERFECT 7-0 ATS in the last 12 months when playing with Conference DOUBLE Revenge. And in the last 3 season, they've gone a PERFECT 4-0 ATS as 'shorter' underdogs of < 8 points.
In this HORIZON Conference... playing with 'Double R' has been money in the bank... based on certain conditions.
11-1-1 ATS since 2005: All HORIZON Conference underdogs playing with 'LSR2' and off a SUATS loss (YOUNG ST)... vs any opponent off a SUATS win (Wisc-Milw). It's no wonder that the money is coming in on the DOGGIE tonight!
Black Widow
1* Philadelphia 76ers -6
The Philadelphia 76ers are one of the best teams in the league this season. Philly has opened 10-4 this year while going a very profitable 11-3 against the spread. They have been nearly unstoppable at home. The 76ers are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season, outscoring opponents by 19.1 points/game. This team has been tremendous following a loss this year, having yet to lose back-to-back games. Philly is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last 3 following a loss, winning by 26.3 points/game. Atlanta is 4-3 on the road this year, but three of those wins came against New Jersey twice and Charlotte. This will be one of their toughest road tests yet. The 76ers are 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Philly is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. The 76ers are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games playing on 1 days rest. Take Philadelphia and lay the points.
Steve Janus
Orlando Magic -4
If you are looking for a great value play on Friday, lock in the Orlando Magic -4 at home against the Los Angeles Lakers!
The Lakers looked horrible on both sides of the floor in their loss to the Heat last night. They simply couldn't match the energy of the Heat, which is pretty surprising considering the magnitude of that game. In my opinion the Lakers are a tired basketball team, and there is little reason to believe they are going to pick up the intensity against the Magic, especially playing in the second game of a back-to-back set on the road.
Los Angeles has been a horrible team on the road this season. They are just 1-5 straight up and 1-5 ATS. Their only win came at Utah, a game in which they needed overtime.
Orlando comes into the game off a 83-85 overtime loss to the Spurs at home. It was just the fourth loss of the season for Orlando. They have followed up their first three losses of the season by going out and winning the next time out, all by at least 7-points.
Los Angeles is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record, 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
SPORTS WAGERS
Melvin Guillard over Jim Miller
Guillard is the wild card of the lightweight division. He has athleticism in bounds and fast hands that pack serious knockout power. However, overconfidence in his abilities have led to mental lapses that have lost him some winnable fights. As a big favorite in his last fight vs Joe Lauzon he got caught with a punch early and lost via submission. Much rather be playing him off a loss than a win for that reason. He's more likely to be 100% focused here. Guillard will have to be very careful not to get “caught”, as Miller has good hand hands but undoubtedly will look to put Melvin on the mat where he will have a decided grappling advantage. Melvin is very strong and has solid takedown defence so it will be interesting to see if Miller's technique can trump Melvin's brute strength. This is something "the Young Assassin" can exploit, as Miller has had some trouble with big strong lightweights in the past. If Melvin is ever able to put all the pieces together the sky is the limit for him. Betting on Guillard can be a lttle dicey but its pretty hard not to take him as a dog. It's not too often you get a fighter as talented as Guillard at plus money. Melvin passes a tough test here and gets back on track via knockout or hard fought decision. Play: Melvin Guillard +156 (Risking 2 units).
JEFF SCOTT SPORTS
4 UNIT PLAY
San Antonio/ Sacramento Under 196.5: The Kings have had some real scoring problems this year, putting up just 90.3 ppg on 38.9% shooting on the year, while on the road they have averaged just 84.5 ppg on a mere 37.5% shooting overall, including 21.6% from long range. For years the Spurs have been known as a tough defensive minded team, but they have struggled some this year, allowing 96.1 ppg overall, but they have been very tough at home, where they have allowed just 90.3 ppg on 42.8% shooting. It will be very hard for the Kings to notch more than 85 in this one. The Spurs are not a dynamic offense team, but they have averaged 99.6 ppg on the year and 103.4 at home, while a Kings team that has played bad defense this year has been playing much better, allowing just 96 ppg in their last 5 games. The Spurs last 5 have averaged 191 ppg, while the Kings with their bad offense has seen their last 5 games average just 181 ppg. I really don't expect this one to hit 190.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Indiana/ Golden State Over 188.5: Warrior games are beginning to look a little like last year as their last 6 games have averaged 208.7 ppg. In the last 5 games their offense has put up 102.6 ppg on a very nice 47.9 % shooting, while they have looked bad at the defensive end, allowing 104.6 ppg on 47.1% shooting over that stretch. The Warriors have averaged 94.7 ppg at home, but in their last 2 home games in regulation they have averaged 102.5 ppg and those 2 games were vs Miami and Orlando, which are 2 pretty good defensive teams. Indiana has not had great success at the offensive end this year (92.8 ppg), but this team does have scorers on their team and they should have an easier time tonight vs a GS defense that is beginning to look like the bad versions of years past. Indiana is a defensive minded team, as they are in the top 7 of every major defensive category, but I feel they will have a hard time slowing down the Warriors and their uptempo style tonight. The Over is 14-5 the last 19 in this series, with each of the last 10 between these two team putting up at least 202 points. I expect this one to eclipse 200 as well. KEY TRENDS--- INDIANA is 50-25 OVER in road games after playing a game as a road favorite since 1996, while GOLDEN STATE is 20-5 OVER in January games over the last 2 seasons.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Denver -7 over WASHINGTON: The Nuggets have gone 12-5 ATS the last 17 in the series, while they have gone 8-2 SU in their last 10 meetings, with each one of those wins coming by double digits. Now Denver comes in playing some of the better ball in the league are they are facing the worst team in the league. Washington is off a shocking home win over a very good Thunder team, but they are still 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS on the year. Denver checks in at 10-5 SU and 11-4 ATS on the year. The Nuggets have really had their offense cranking of late as they have averaged a healthy 109.8 ppg in their last 5 games, while for the year they are 2nd in scoring (104.8 ppg) and 2nd in FG% (28.3%). Washington has scored 100+ points in their last 2 games, but they have still averaged just 87.6 ppg on the year, while at home they have averaged just 91.5 ppg. Defense has been a problem for this team, especially of late as they have allowed 109.8 ppg in their last 4 games and that number doesn't figure to get much better vs the Nuggets tonight. This could be a flat spot for the Nuggets after their big win over Philly and now taking on the worst team in the league, but that win by the Wiz over the Thunder should have the attention of this Denver squad and they will come in fully focused. Washing has lost 10 of their 12 games by at least 8 points and that will continue tonight with a solid DD win by Denver here. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points in non-conference games, off a close home win by 3 points or less.
Phoenix/ Boston Under 185: Google News Play. As i have said in many of my NBA pick threads over at Pregame I have stated that this is a whole new NBA this year. The Suns are a team that is usually in the top 5 in scoring and the bottom 5 in defense, but this aging team has put up just 93.9 ppg (16th) on offense, while playing much better at the defensive end, allowing just 96.4 ppg (22nd), after ranking 29th (105.9 ppg) in that category last year. Phoenix has not been running as much this year as they were 7th in shots per game last year (83.5), but just 14th this year (80.7) and they have struggled to score on the road, where they have averaged just 91.6 ppg. It doesn't look to get any easier for them tonight as they will face a Boston team that has allowed just 85.2 ppg on 42.4% shooting in their home games this year. The Phoenix defense has really been on a down turn of late as they have allowed 103.8 ppg in their last 5 games, but fear not as this Boston team has had all sorts of problems at the offensive end, where they have put up just 90.2 ppg overall and 88.4 ppg at home. Phoenix games have gone 4-10 to the Under this year and that's with much, much lower OU lines than in years past. while Boston has gone 4-8-1 to the Under this year. Boston home games have gone 7-1 to the Under this year, with an average of just 173.6 ppg being scored and with two struggling offenses and one very tough Boston defense I will see more of the same tonight.
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Atlanta Over 184: The Hawks realize that they need to play an uptempo game in order to use the athletic ability of their team. This team has plenty of scorers, but they don't play well in a halfcourt offense. Tonight they get to play a high scoring Philly team that does like to run. PHILADELPHIA is 11-2 OVER in home games after a combined score of 205 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
Lakers/ Orlando Under 182: ORLANDO is 24-9 UNDER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons, while the LA LAKERS are 32-14 UNDER after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons.