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Free Picks: Service Plays for Friday, January 21,2011

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(@blade)
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DUNKEL INDEX

Utah at Boston
The Jazz look to take advantage of a Boston team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a home favorite from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Utah is the pick (+6) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by only 4. Dunkel Pick: Utah (+6)

Game 801-802: Detroit at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 115.900; New Jersey 110.655
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 5; 186
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey by 2; 191
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Under

Game 803-804: Toronto at Orlando (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 111.091; Orlando 127.824
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 16 1/2; 212
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 12; 205
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-12); Over

Game 805-806: New Orleans at Atlanta (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 119.931; Atlanta 123.522
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 181
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 4; 185 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+4); Under

Game 807-808: Utah at Boston (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 118.373; Boston 122.551
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 4; 197
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 6; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+6); Over

Game 809-810: Milwaukee at Cleveland (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.992; Cleveland 109.710
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 7 1/2; 209
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 811-812: Phoenix at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 114.583; Washington 114.878
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 207
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 1; 213 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+1); Under

Game 813-814: Houston at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 116.696; Memphis 122.777
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3 1/2); Over

Game 815-816: New York at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 122.153; San Antonio 125.815
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 3 1/2; 207
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 212
Dunkel Pick: New York (+9); Under

Game 817-818: LA Lakers at Denver (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 123.234; Denver 123.104
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 217
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 1; 213
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+1); Over

Game 819-820: Sacramento at Golden State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 113.267; Golden State 118.867
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 5 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7; 215 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (+7); Under

NCAAB

WI-Green Bay at Butler
The Bulldogs look to bounce back from a 69-64 loss at Wright State and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games following an ATS defeat. Butler is the pick (-14 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulldogs favored by 18. Dunkel Pick: Butler (-14 1/2).

Game 821-822: WI-Green Bay at Butler (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 53.562; Butler 71.643
Dunkel Line: Butler by 18
Vegas Line: Butler by 14 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Butler (-14 1/2)

Game 823-824: WI-Milwaukee at Valparaiso (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 57.637; Valparaiso 64.205
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (+9 1/2)

Game 825-826: Fairfield at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 59.783; Canisius 54.445
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 5
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (-5)

Game 827-828: Iona at Niagara (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 59.709; Niagara 47.610
Dunkel Line: Iona by 12
Vegas Line: Iona by 15
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (+15)

Game 829-830: Siena at St. Peter's (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 50.206; St. Peter's 53.347
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 3
Vegas Line: St. Peters by 2
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-2)

Game 841-842: Belmont at USC Upstate (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 67.899; USC Upstate 47.758
Dunkel Line: Belmont by 20
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 843-844: Lipscomb at East Tennessee State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Lipscomb 49.007; East Tennessee State 61.785
Dunkel Line: East Tennessee State by 13
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

Tampa Bay at Florida
The Lightning look to take advantage of a Florida team that is 2-5 in its last 7 games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Tampa Bay is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Lightning favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105).

Game 51-52: Tampa Bay at Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.857; Florida 10.764
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+105); Under

Game 53-54: NY Islanders at Buffalo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 11.331; Buffalo 11.065
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-215); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+175); Over

Game 55-56: Montreal at Ottawa (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 11.004; Ottawa 9.831
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-125); 5
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-125); Over

Game 57-58: Dallas at Calgary (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 10.760; Calgary 10.899
Dunkel Line & Total: Calgary by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Calgary (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Calgary (-120); Under

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:49 am
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Marc Lawrence

Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Sacramento Kings

The Kings and Warriors meet in Golden State Friday night in a Pacific Division showdown Friday night with Sacramento looking to avenge an earlier loss in this series. Sacto enters with spread wins in six of its last eight games knowing they've bagged the cash in four of it's last six games on this floor. With Golden State 1-6 ATS in games off back-to-back wins this season, look for the Kings to crown the Warriors here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Sacramento.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:50 am
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VEGAS EXPERTS

New Orleans Hornets at Atlanta Hawks

The Hornets check in as the NBA's #1 'Under' team having stayed below the number in 28 of 43 games thus far. They went Over in their previous game against the Memphis Grizzlies due to overtime and we look for a return to form here tonight in Atlanta as we find the team a perfect 10-0 Under this season when off BB Overs. Low scoring game.

Play on: Under

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:50 am
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Frank Jordan

New Orleans Hornets vs. Atlanta Hawks
Play: Atlanta Hawks -4

Atlanta is flying high after beating the Heat as that pushes them to 8-2 in their last 10 games. Atlanta is over .500 at 9-7 against the West and 14-6 at home. New Orleans is playing well with a six game winning streak and also having won eight of 10. New Orleans is under .500 on the road at 10-11 and great against the East at 14-5. Look for the Hawks to stay on their high as they ground Chris Paul and the Hornets. Play Atlanta

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:51 am
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Chip Chirimbes

Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Utah Jazz +5½

The Utah jazz have turned things around on the road this season posting a winning record of 12-8 while the Boston Celtics continue to struggle against the points at home winning only 7 of 22 as home favorites (2-10 in last 12) off 12-16 last season. Both clubs won and covered at home last season, this time things turn take the visitor.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:51 am
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JIM FEIST

SUNS VS WIZARDS
PLAY: OVER

You won't see any defense in this one. Phoenix is No. 3 in the NBA in scoring, and both of these teams are in the bottom 10 in points allowed. Phoenix is 17-8 over the total in the Suns last 25 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, while the Over is 4-1 in the Wizards last 5 games against the NBA's Pacific division. Look for an uptempo game to impress the fans, which means no defense. Play the Suns/Wizards Over the total.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:53 am
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EZWINNERS

Golden State Warriors -7

The Golden State Warriors are playing very well and they will be looking to win four games in a row for the first time in three seasons when they host Sacramento in this game. Golden State has had their way with the Kings at home recently. Sacramento has not won in their last three visits to Oakland and have allowed 131 points per game in their last five visits to the Bay Area. Overall Golden State has won eleven of the last fourteen at home against the Kings. The Warriors rallied from sixteen points down for a 117-109 victory at Arco Arena on December 21st to win the first match up between these teams this season and I look for another big Warriors win led by Golden State's Monta Ellis. Ellis, third in the NBA with a career best 25.9 points per game, is averaging 32.5 points on 54.2 percent shooting that includes eight of eighteen from three point range over the last four games. Lay the points.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 8:54 am
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Tom Freese

New York at San Antonio
Play: San Antonio

New York is 22-19 straight up this year. The Knicks are 3-8-1 ATS their last 12 games vs. NBA Southwest teams. New York is 2-5 ATS when playing with one day of rest. The Knicks are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games of a straight up loss. New York is 2-5 ATS their last 7 meetings in San Antonio. The Spurs are 15-5-1 ATS their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Spurs are 6-1 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. San Antonio is 10-3 ATS their last 13 games as home favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. The Spurs are 6-2 ATS when playing with one day of rest.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 9:21 am
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Craig Trapp

Lakers vs. Nuggets
Play: Over 212.5

These teams played only once this year and it went way over scoring 230 total. Denver has really given up on defense and now just tries to outscore teams. LAL give DEN big problems because they punish them in the lane. DEN has to win in the open court and this looks like a track meet to me. Enjoy the over.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 10:40 am
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Tom Stryker

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets
Los Angeles Lakers -1-

With a 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS mark in its last five games against Denver which includes a 118-12 road loss to the Nuggets back on November 11th, Los Angeles will be primed for a little payback on Friday night.

Surprisingly, head coach Phil Jackson's troops have dropped two of their last three to the Clippers and Mavs and they'll be looking to get back on the winning track here. There is a strong team trend that favors LA in this contest. As a guest running the floor with same season revenge, LA is a respectable 114-88 ATS dating back to the 1990-91 season including a decent 60-42 ATS in this set checking in off a straight up loss. Equally impressive, off a poor defensive effort in which the Lakers allowed 100 or more points in their last game, Kobe Bryant and Company have responded by posting a respectable 51-35 ATS record in their next battle including a stellar 32-14 ATS in this role matched up against an opponent that checks in off a straight up win.

Denver has been on fire at home lately. That fact is noted. However, this isn't the best spot for the Nuggets. In its last 30 inside the Pepsi Center facing a foe that enters off a straight up loss, Denver has struggled something fierce posting a woeful 7-22-1 ATS record. Even worse, off a straight up win and matched up against a Pacific Division opponent, the Nuggets have put together a disturbing 4-13-2 ATS mark.

The Lakers have lost three straight in Nuggets country and five of their last seven against Denver overall. That's not good enough for Coach Jackson and certainly not acceptable to a competitor like Kobe. Take Los Angeles.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 10:41 am
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Ray Monohan

Dallas Stars vs. Calgary Flames
Play: Calgary Flames

Really like the Flames tonight playing at home coming off a BLOWOUT loss last game out 6-0. Iginla will have the troops motivated trust me on this one. He's collected three goals and four assists in his last six games. Last time these 2 teams played the Flames won posting a 3-2 shootout victory on the road on Dec. 23. Dallas comes into this one off a win last night in Edmonton so they're legs won't be at 100%. Calgary's will, they aren't playing on back to back nights. CAL are 10-4 in their last 14 Fri. games. While its true the Stars aren't doing anything spectacular to win on the road except playing good, simple road hockey, getting good goaltending and making the most of their scoring chances it won't be enough tonight. The line is great for this one. Calgary is the favorite for a reason folks.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 10:41 am
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MTi Sports

Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics Jan 21 2011 7:35PM
Prediction: Utah Jazz

The Celtics are off a very lackadaisical 86-82 win over the Pistons at home. Rajon Rondo was 3-of-9 from the field for six points, but he contributed 8 rebounds and 8 assists. Paul Pierce led the Celtics with 22 points on 8-of-15 shooting. This has been a soft spot for Boston. The Celts are 0-7 ATS after a win in which Ray Allen was not the Celtics' high scorer and 0-7 ATS (-10.4 ppg) after a win at home in which Rajon Rondo had more rebounds than points. The Jazz are 5-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz's high scorer. Consider Utah.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 10:41 am
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Sac Lawson

NJ Nets -2

I admit, a whole hell of a lot of this game has to do with Detroit's last game. In my opinion, it's a decent fade spot anytime a team is coming off a game with Boston. They are one of the more physical teams in the NBA, and they mentally screw with you quite a bit as well. The fact that Detroit actually played them tough, and had a great chance at getting a win, just means that they'll be dealing with an even bigger hangover.

Detroit is playing better basketball of late, but it's hard to get up to play New Jersey after you've just played in Boston, and it's even harder to do such when you know you've gotta play the following night back at home. Simply a tough spot for Detroit, let's leave it at that.

Houston +3.5

If there was ever a situation where my analysis would be ultra-square, this would be it... Houston has won 7 straight against Memphis, and covered the last 6. I'm a firm believer in revenge angles, but I'm also a firm believer that sometimes a team just has your number. If 7 straight wins doesn't fit the latter, I don't know what does.

Usually I wouldn't follow such a trend blindly, but the fact that Houston has won 3 straight puts my mind at ease a bit. At least we know we're backing a hot ball club, right along side that trend of wins against tonight's opponent. As for Memphis; they hit the road right away to play in Milwaukee tomorrow night. Possibly looking ahead to their road trip? Could be.

Either way, I'll take Houston, and expect to see Memphis have the same issues with them that they've had the last 7 times.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 10:42 am
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JR O'Donnell

GS Warriors -6.5

The 18-23 Golden State Warriors make the Twitter/Members play status tonight vs the 9-31 Sac Kings.... Friday's Ticket is a tricky ticket boys and these Warriors are a strong $ prop at home & these Kings are 3-15 away from home. The Public might play the revenge angle here.. GSW hung up 130 last game but we feel that these Kings just do not have the talent to compete here. These Warriors flat out Crush @ home. The Monta Ellis lead Warriors are streaking and they 3-1 & 7-2 the last 9 at the Oracle Center. The Warriors are the sharp play tonight.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 10:44 am
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Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Lakers -1

Denver has been great on its home floor (19-4) where it has already defeated the Lakers once this season. But I expect that loss, combined with a loss to Dallas in their last game, to be all the motivation the defending champs need to take care of business this evening. The numbers suggest this is a great time to back L.A. In fact, plays on all teams when the line is +3 to -3 off an upset loss, if they are a good team winning 60 to 75% of their games and playing a team with a winning record, are an impressive 163-105 ATS since 1996. This system tightens up to 64-36 ATS the last 5 seasons. Denver is coming off a SU and ATS win over Oklahoma City. This is precisely the time to go against the Nuggets. That's because they are a pathetic 9-26-6 ATS in their last 41 games following an ATS victory. Expect Kobe Bryant and company to avenge their earlier season loss to Denver tonight. Take L.A.

 
Posted : January 21, 2011 11:38 am
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