Matt Fargo
Phoenix Suns vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards
It is fairly safe to assume that everyone is aware of the Wizards issues on the road this season. They are 0-20 away from home, the lone winless road team in the NBA. Washington has 12 more wins at home than on the road, which is the second largest margin in the NBA behind Denver’s 14-game disparity. The Wizards have won four straight games at home and since losing to Cleveland and Charlotte early in the season, the other six home losses have come against elite opposition. The Suns have put a very solid run together as they have won four straight games but I am still not sold on Phoenix. Prior to this winning streak, it went 3-11 in its previous 14 games and while some of that can be blamed on the recent trades which created a lot of turnover, the simple fact is this team is not as talented as it used to be. The Suns are four games under .500 on the road which isn’t horrible but they have not done well against the lesser teams, going just 3-5 ATS in games against teams with a losing record. Phoenix is coming off a win against Cleveland while covering by just a half-point. The Cavaliers fell behind by 17 points but made a massive comeback but simply ran out of gas to steal the game. They managed to turn what should have been an easy and rest-filled victory for the Suns' starters into yet another game that the old Suns never would have let happened. The Suns have underperformed their talent level for most of the season and while playing better, they are nothing more than an average team. Wizards head coach Flip Saunders has been good at bouncing his team back, both here and in his other stops as his teams are 93-65 ATS coming off a double-digit road loss. You can argue that past history is meaningless with a brand new team but that argument can also be made against the fact that Phoenix has owned this series with eight straight wins including seven covers. The Suns were favored in every one of those games but now they are the underdog which shows how the gap has closed. 3* Washington Wizards
Ben Burns
Montreal Canadiens @ Ottawa Senators
PICK: Ottawa Senators
While the Senators are underdogs here, I feel they've got an excellent shot at scoring the "upset."
Off another loss last night, its fifth straight, Ottawa figures to be extremely motivated. Note that the Sens are still a profitable 50-36 (+13.1) the past 86 times that they were trying to break a losing streak of three or more games.
While they lost last night, the Sens showed a lot of "life," as they were involved in numerous fights. I feel that type of game may prove to be just what the doctor ordered.
As Ottawa left winger Nick Foligno noted: "At least we're not rolling over and playing dead. We have a lot of fight in us..."
Note that the Sens are a respectable 20-16 (+5.1) the past few seasons, when playing the second of back to back games.
The Sens are also 26-13-1 the last 40 times that they hosted Montreal. They're catching the Canadiens dealing with a number of injuries right now and I feel they've got a strong shot at improving on those stats. Consider Ottawa.
Stan Lisowski
Utah Jazz vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Utah Jazz
The Jazz are 11-7 in games against Eastern Conference foes, while they stand as a 68% spread proposition the last couple of seasons after an outright loss. Boston has dropped 24 of their past 37 games against non-conference teams.
SPORTS WAGERS
Dallas +1.04 over CALGARY
The Flames are coming off that ugly 6-0 loss to the Wild upon returning home from a long road trip. One of the reasons for playing against Calgary in that contest was that teams are very often flat in the first or second game back of a trip. Based on the 6-0 score alone it suggests that’s exactly what happened but that’s not the case and that’s why there’s no substitution for watching the games. Calgary outplayed Minnesota and had way more chances to score. They weren’t flat, they just got lousy goaltending from Mikka Kiprusoff and Niklas Backstrom was terrific for Minny and that was the big difference in the game. The Flames will be hard-pressed to match that effort in their second game back and aside from that, the Stars are simply the much better team. It also doesn’t hurt that they’re on fire. Dallas has picked up points in eight straight (7 wins and 1 OT loss). They’ve allowed two goals or less in all eight games during that stretch (less the shootout goal) and any take-back here has to be considered a real gift. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it. Play: Dallas +1.04 (Risking 2 units).
Dave Price
1 Unit on Orlando Magic -12
The Magic have lost their last 2 meetings with the Raptors, which included a 110-106 loss at home earlier this season. With those losses serving as motivation, expect the Magic to cruise to victory on their home floor tonight. Not every team takes losses personally, but the Magic certainly have under coach Van Gundy. Consider that they are 17-6 ATS when looking for revenge against an opponent that scored 110 or more points on them. It is also worth noting that Orlando is 10-1 ATS when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 25% to 40%) in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons, defeating these teams by 17.4 points on average. Lay the points.
Rob Vinciletti
Sacramento Kings vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Golden State Warriors -6½
The Warriors fit a nice system here that plays on certain home teams that scored 110 or more points as a home favorite in their last game if the total is 210 or higher tonight and the opponent was a home dog of 4 or less in their last game. This system has been solid long term. The Warriors come in off back to back home wins, while the Kings are off a tough overtime home loss to Portland. The Kings have struggled in divisional play going 1-7 straight up and against the spread and 6-18 ats vs teams who score 100 or more points per game. The Last time the Warriors played the Kings here they slaughtered them by 32 points. They also won and earlier meeting in Sacramento. Look for another Golden State win as The Warriors come out and play.
Jack Jones
Atlanta Hawks -4
I'll gladly side with the Atlanta Hawks as just a small home favorite Friday against the New Orleans Hornets. Atlanta is playing their best basketball of the season right now. The Hawks are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games overall. They even beat the Miami Heat on the road last time out. I look for the Hawks to continue their solid play tonight against a Hornets team that is also playing well. New Orleans has won six straight, but that run comes to a halt tonight in Atlanta. They'll be facing a well-rested Hawks team that is playing on 2 days' rest Friday.
The Hornets are just 10-11 on the road this season while Atlanta is 14-6 at home. The home team is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings, with Atlanta winning each of their home meetings by 23 and 10 points, respectively. The Hawks are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5. Atlanta is 17-5 ATS off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons. The Hornets are 5-15 ATS after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Roll with the Hawks Friday.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Washington Wizards +1
This is a tough spot for Phoenix playing its 3rd straight game on the road, where it is just 8-12 this season. Making this spot even tougher is Washington's high level of motivation. The Wizards are not at all happy about falling to 0-20 on the road last game. Furthermore, they haven't forgotten about the 125-108 loss they took at Phoenix last month. Fortunately, the Wizards are back home, where they are 12-8 this season and have won 4 straight. On their home floor against teams that currently have losing record, the Wizards are a dominant 10-2. Phoenix just doesn't defend well enough to come away a winner tonight. It is allowing 111.9 ppg on the road this season. Washington, meanwhile, is only giving up 96.4 ppg at home. Take the Wizards.
Info Plays
3* Denver Nuggets +1.5
Reasons why Denver will cover the Spread:
1) The Nuggets have won four straight at home over the Lakers, including a 118-112 win this season, where the Lakers were favored by 3-points. The Nuggets are 19-4 at home this season, making them a must play when getting points, not matter who they are playing.
2) Denver is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
3) Los Angeles is just 8-17-2 ATS in their last 27 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5, and are only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
Black Widow
1* on Memphis Grizzlies -3.5
The Memphis Grizzlies get the call Friday as just a 3.5-point home favorite over the Houston Rockets. The Grizzlies have taken care of business at home this season while the Rockets have really struggled on the road. Memphis is 12-7 at home where they are giving up only 97.4 points/game, while Houston is 8-14 on the road surrendering 107.0 points/game. The Rockets were a solid defensive team for years, but they have quit giving the effort on this side of the ball and no longer have the personnel to shut down teams. Memphis returns home hungry after a tough overtime loss to the Hornets on the road last time out. The Grizzlies are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after playing a road game this season. Memphis is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The Rockets are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference foes, while the Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference opponents. Memphis is also a very profitable 16-6 ATS in their last 22 games overall, so you can just imagine the money you would have won backing them over the last month or so. Take Memphis and lay the points.
Larry Ness
Phoenix @ Washington
PICK: Washington
The Wizards lost Wednesday night at Milwaukee, falling to 0-20 on the road (5-15 ATS), the lone winless road team in the NBA this year. However, the Wizards are 12-8 SU at home. The bad news is the Suns are their opponent tonight and Phoenix has won EIGHT consecutive meetings with the Wizards, posting a near-perfect 7-1 ATS mark. The good news is, these Suns are not "the old Suns!" Phoenix ranks dead-last in points allowed (109.0) and 29th (of 30) in opponents FG percentage (48.2). Meanwhile, the Wizards have begun to establish themselves (at least at home), as a team with more than just a few options. Wall's (15.2-9.3 APG) expectations were "through the roof" but all-in-all, those are pretty fair numbers for a rookie PG (on a poor team). Young (16.6) is now starting in the backcourt with Wall and the last five games, has averaged 26.6 PPG. Up front, Lewis (13.4-7.3) has put up solid numbers in his 14 games since coming from Orlando in that big trade while Blatche (16.5-8.4), while a pain in the ass, has posted good numbers. The 7-0 McGee (9.0-8.1) is also showing promise while veteran guard Hinrich (11.4-4.7) and Clipper "throw-away" forward Thornton (8.8) have contributed off the bench. The Suns enter on a recent 'uptick' (have won four straight) but speaking of four-game winning streaks, the Wizards have won their last four here at home, including a 108-101 win over the Jazz in their last contest. So much for the Suns' eight-game winning streak. It's O-V-E-R!
SPORTS WAGERS
WASHINGTON –1 over Phoenix
The Suns have woken up with four wins in a row but so what. They beat New Jersey in OT, Portland, the Knicks and finally the putrid Cav’s by eight. The latter two were on the road and now the Suns will play their third straight away from home. Fact is, Phoenix is not to be trusted on the road. They play no defense and are extremely vulnerable to big runs against. They’ve lost a lot of games already this year to weak teams, especially on the road and the Wiz are actually pretty good at home. Washington has a 12-8 home record and an incredible 0-20 road record. They’ve beaten some decent teams already at home including the Jazz in their most recent home game. The Wiz has now reeled off four wins in a row in their own building and the fact that the oddsmakers made the Suns an appealing pooch here, gives us all the confidence in the world that the Wiz will make is five straight. Play: Washington –1 (Risking 2.02 units to win 2).
CLEVELAND +6½/+244 over Milwaukee
The Cav’s are most certainly going to win some more games this season and after 14 losses in a row and 24 losses in their last 25 games this surely could be their day. Cleveland is coming off a decent effort against Phoenix in its first game back after a West Coast swing. They trailed in that game by 15 going to the fourth quarter and opened the frame with with a 10-1 run to cut the deficit by four before losing by eight. On that trip they were ripped apart but at least they played some real quality opponents in the Lakers, Jazz and Nuggets. They’re likely to get some healthy bodies back and you know for sure that they’re sick of losing. This is a very winnable game against a Bucks team that is really banged up and that has just six wins in 21 road games. The Bucks have dropped six straight on the road with five of six being by double digits. The Bucks are not a good wager on the road and there’s no doiubt they can even lose to this host. Play: Cleveland +6½ +100 (Risking 1 unit) Play: Cleveland +244 (Risking 1 unit).