DAVE COKIN
CLIPPERS AT KNICKS
PLAY: KNICKS +1
I like to look for patterns in the NBA. The caveat with this methodology is that I have to deal with small sample in-season results. But there have been some nice payoffs going this route as identifying these trends, if you want to use that term, can work nicely if there’s some rationale attached to whatever the premise might be.
With that in mind, let’s examine what the Los Angeles Clippers have done when coming off a game with an elite opponent. Again, this is ultra-small sample, but as it can only really apply to this year’s team, that’s what I have to work with.
Prior to last night’s game at Cleveland, the Clippers had just three previous games against the cream of the crop. They lost all three, twice to Golden State and once against San Antonio. What I wanted to see was how the Clippers reacted off those games and how they performed in their subsequent outing. That’s where this small pattern has shown up. Off the aforementioned three games, the Clippers also went 0-3, with two losses to Houston and a poorly played defeat at Portland.
Now the Clippers are off a game against the Cavaliers, who I would put in the elite category, at least on perception if not reality. Once more, LA came out on the wrong end of the scoreboard. Now they have to wheel back with no rest to take on the Knicks, and I think this could be a tough spot for the Clippers. NewYork is not the most consistent entry in the NBA. But one thing I’ve noticed is that they have a tendency to play to the level of its opposition. So while this team has struggled at times with squads they probably should handle, they’ve dug in and played tough when facing better competition.
The scheduling here favors the Knicks and based on their previous responses off the marquee games, I can see the Clippers below their capabilities this evening. The oddsmakers have priced this where the Clippers might seem attractive to bettors. But I’m going to go the other way and will look for the Knicks to come through with the win and cover tonight.
Rob Vinciletti
Bucks vs. Rockets
Play: Bucks +2½
The Bucks are hot right now and have won the last 3 as a dog. They have covered 15 of 17 if they were a road dog in their last game and are 7-0 to the spread on the road off a road win. Houston has failed to cover 9 straight times at home off a favored loss in their last game and are just 4-12 to the spread in non conference games. Rested road dogs like the Bucks have covered 80% long term if they are off a road dog win and covered by 14+ points and scored 90 or more vs a team that scored 110 or more and failed to cover as a home favorite like Houston.
Mike Lundin
Bulls vs. Celtics
Play: Bulls +3½
The Chicago Bulls have won just two of their last seven and will be desperate to bounce back from Wednesday's embarresing 125-94 home loss to the Warriors. The good news is that they're 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Boston. Derrick Rose is averaging 22.3 points on 50.9% shooting over a three-game span and led the team with 29 points against Golden State. The Celtics are off back-to-back losses and they're 1-4 ATS in their last five when facing a team with a winning straight up record. Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley combined for a total of 40 points in a 115-109 loss at Toronto on Wednesday and I don't see them matching up well with Chicago's backcourt of Butler/Rose.
Art Aronson
Utah Jazz vs. Brooklyn Nets
Play: Brooklyn Nets +5½
Both teams come in on extended losing streaks, the Jazz have dropped seven of their last ten, including four of their last five and two straight, while the Nets have lost nine of their last ten, including four in a row, most recently a 91-78 setback to Cleveland on Tuesday. Utah is just 6-15 on the road and has another game tomorrow night in the nation's capital, so it's hard not to imagine this struggling team not getting caught looking ahead to that much "bigger" contest. Brooklyn on the other hand has tough ones against OKC on Saturday and then Miami (both at home), putting added incentive onto tonight's matchup vs. the floundering Jazz. Brooklyn also plays with revenge after Utah took both games in the series last year. Note that Utah is just 3-4 ATS this season after scoring 105 points or more, while the Nets are 9-6 ATS in all non-conference games and 7-5 ATS as a home dog of 3.5 to six points.
Jim Feist
Spurs vs. Lakers
Play: Under 199
San Antonio is a solid defensive team preferring a slower pace, No. 1 in the NBA in points allowed. The under is 11-5-1 in the Spurs last 17 road games. San Antonio played last night so they will slow it way down. The Under is 16-5-1 in the Spurs last 22 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The L.A. Lakers have all kinds of offensive troubles, 18-7-1 under the total playing on one days rest, plus the under is 22-10 in the Lakers last 32 vs. a team with a winning straight up record. And when these teams clash the Under is 35-16 in the last 51 meetings, including 12-4 under at the Staples Center.
Brian Hay
Rhode Island vs. George Washington
Play: George Washington -5
George Washington has a 14-4 record and currently sits 5th in the Atlantic-10 Conference. The Colonials have won 2 of their past 3 games with their most recent game being a 77-70 loss to Dayton. The Colonials will try to bounce back with a win tonight over Rhode Island. The Rhode Island Rams have a 11-7 record and are currently 6th in the Atlantic-10 Conference. The Rams are coming off of a 73-62 win over La Salle. Rhode Island's just 2-9 against the spread in their last 11 games following a win. George Washington is 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 home games. The Rhode Island Rams are coming off of a big win against La Salle and the Colonials have won 2 of their last 3 games. George Washington is going to win this game big here at home tonight.
John Ryan
Clippers vs. Knicks
Play: Clippers -2
SIM algorithm shows a high probability that the Clippers will win this game by at least five points. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 40-14 ATS mark good for 74% winners since 1996. Play on road favorites (LA CLIPPERS) an explosive offensive team scoring >=102 PPG and is now facing a good offensive team averaging between 98 and 102 PPG after 42+ games, after allowing 110 points or more. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. Clippers have been a solid money making 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) in road games when their opponents make 43% to 47% of their shots in a game over the last 3 seasons. Looking at the key metrics I use for these releases, the Clippers have a large majority of these metrics pointing in their direction. They have a huge edge in effective FG%, FTA/FGA, opponent turnover per play ratio, and FTA per play ratio. Clippers do a great job limiting 2-point shots, especially in the paint and will force the Knicks to the perimeter, which is not on eof their strengths.
Sleepyj
Utah -5.5
A little late to the party with this one tonight..I still feel it's worth a small wager though...Utah has been on the east coast road trip now for 2 games..They lost them both in OT and that can;t sit well with the Jazz..Utah is sitting just outside the 8th seed right now..Dropping games against teams like Brooklyn just looks bad..I expect them to step up here tonight....The next game for them is tomorrow which has a very good chance to be cancelled..Big storm as we all know...So a last ditch effort here tonight would seem rather solid..Utah has the defense to step up Vs. this bad Brooklyn team..Utah has given up over 100 points in the last two outings..I think they step it up here tonight and get all the scorers and defenders involved..Money has come in on the right side IMO..I'll back the road favorite here tonight.
Bruce Marshall
Charlotte +5
Perhaps it should come as no surprise that Orlando has been backing up since late December, with first-year HC Scott Skiles dealing with a very precocious roster that might have been playing over its head the first two months of the season. Recent absence of key G Victor Oladipo (knee) has further contributed to the downdraft, as Magic had lost 8 of 9 SU (and covered the number only twice) since New Year's thru Jan. 21. The Hornets have played a bit better after extended nosedive saw them drop 11 of 12 vs. the number between Dec. 19 and Jan. 10, and SU wins vs. Atlanta and Utah in the last week positive signs for Steve Clifford's crew. Rookie reserve PF Frank Kaminsky (14 ppg, 52%, 6.4 rpg L5) is alleviating some of frontline holes left by absence of C Al Jefferson (knee) and Cody Zeller (shoulder strain).
SPORTS WAGERS
FLORIDA -105 over Chicago
OT included. Now that the Blackhawks 12-game winning streak has ended, getting back that intensity in this, their fifth road game in their last six games overall may be challenging. After such a long winning streak we often see consecutive losses because there is an exhale of sorts. A winning streak that long takes on a life of its own. It becomes the main focus in the locker room. It becomes the main central issue in the NHL. The players get emotionally involved in it too. Intensity is high, as every player digs down to extend it. They push themselves to extreme limits in an attempt to keep it going. This now becomes a very vulnerable spot for the Blackhawks and perhaps even more with the Blue Notes on deck in Chicago on Sunday. This now becomes a high percentage fade on Chicago more than a wager on Florida.
We saw the Panthers go through this exact same thing very recently and they have not recovered yet. After an identical 12-game winning streak and losing to Vancouver to snap it, the Panthers had no energy whatsoever in their very next game in Calgary. They managed a mere 15 shots on net that game and lost 6-0. Florida has not won a game since and now its losing streak has hit four games. However, the Panthers returned home after a six-game trip and played a pretty decent game against Edmonton, despite losing 4-2. This is now they’re second game back after a three-day layoff and they figure to be sharp and raring to go. Winning sells tickets and these tickets were selling fast when Florida was on their winning streak so there is a very good chance the Panthers will take the ice tonight in front of a packed house. The stars align just right for Florida to get back on track and we’re betting that’s exactly what they’ll do.
Detroit -½ +127 over BUFFALO
Regulation only. The Sabres are coming off a string of six very good outings in a row. It started with victories over Winnipeg and Minnesota before a loss in Boston. Subsequently, the Sabres defeated Washington and Arizona before losing 2-1 to Colorado on Wednesday. Buffalo will now return home after those aforementioned two games on the road in Arizona and Colorado. They have played in five different time zones since January 10. This will also be the Sabres fifth game in seven days and it comes after spending the past two games on the road with their dads. Buffalo has Saturday and Sunday off after this one before hitting the road again for games at Madison Square and in Ottawa on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Situationally speaking, the Sabres are in an extremely difficult spot here and they’ll face a Detroit team coming off successive losses at home.
Detroit did not deserve to lose to St. Louis on Wednesday. They held the Blue Notes to a mere 20 shots on net but Blues goaltender Brian Elliott put up a stone wall and Detroit came away with nothing. They lost to Philadelphia before that. After a four game winning streak, the Red Wings have dropped three of their last four games so they figure to be hungry here. What’s interesting is that the Red Wings are not scoring goals. They have been held to two goals or fewer in eight of their past 10 games but that’s just an anomaly. There is simply too much offensive talent on this squad to expect that goal scoring drought to continue. Petr Mrazek gets the call in goal tonight for the Red Wings and he’s as good a goaltender as there is in this league. When you wager on great goaltending, you always have a chance. Buffalo has five wins in 20 games against top-10 teams. They have eight wins in 29 games against top-16 teams. Playing a very difficult schedule over the past two weeks and especially over the last week, the Sabres do not figure to be sharp or energetic here. We’ll trust the Red Wings to sniff a wounded prey and take full advantage.
Teddy Covers
Miami vs. Toronto
Play: Toronto -11
The Miami Heat are in a world of hurt right now, a bet-against team in any reasonable price range. My clients and I cashed an easy winner betting against Miami twice already this week, two blowout losses where they trailed from the opening tip. And frankly, there’s little reason to expect a better effort as they travel to Toronto tonight.
The Heat are in the midst of a truly brutal scheduling stretch, as tough as any team will face all year. They’re playing a stretch of 18 consecutive games with a court change, a nightmarish situation for a very banged up team that desperately needs some practice time that they’re not going to get anytime soon.
And "very banged up" doesn’t even accurately describe Eric Spoelstra’s squad right now. ‘Decimated with injuries’ might be superior phraseology. The Heat won’t have starting center Hassan Whiteside tonight, dealing with hip and knee injuries. They won’t have starting guard Dwayne Wade either, out with a lingering shoulder injury. Starting point guard Goran Dragic is out with a strained calf. Starting forward Luol Deng is out after getting poked in the eye. And four missing starters is just the tip of the iceberg!
Dragic’s backup, Beno Udrih, has a strained neck. He’s been unable to play in recent games and reports this morning didn’t sound positive about his chances to suit up in Toronto. Josh McRoberts has a bum knee, downgraded to ‘out’. Gerald Green is suffering from knee tendinitis, a question mark (at best) this evening. Chris Anderson has a bone bruise in his knee. Tyler Johnson has a bad shoulder. One of the few remaining healthy bodies Chris Bosh had this to say: “I’m not even sure who we’re going to have in Toronto.”
More from Bosh: “We obviously have to work on our mental toughness right now. We’re kind of weak in that area... We knew this point (of the season) was going to be very tough and it was going to be a gut check — and that was going to be at 100 percent. With four or five guys out, it kind of presents quite a challenge for us.”
Five of the last six Miami losses have come in blowout fashion, by 14 points or more. The lone exception was a maximum intensity spot at Golden State; the last time this team was reasonably healthy. And it’s surely worth noting that they lost by 14 the last time they played Toronto – a home game for the Heat in which they were perfectly healthy.
While Miami is in a world of hurt, the Raptors are surging, winners of six straight. Toronto is loaded with Miami’s kryptonite – quick guards and athletic frontcourt players, exactly where the Heat have struggled to match up all year.
But don’t expect a flat, ‘fat and happy’ effort from the Raptors this evening after head coach Dwayne Casey laid into them for a shoddy defensive effort over the last week. Casey: “We have lost our defensive mojo a little bit.” A team primed to flex their defensive muscle against is VERY bad news for a Heat team with all kinds off offensive flow issues right now, playing without their top three guards!
Ross Benjamin
St. Peter's vs. Iona
Play: Over 147
St. Peter’s has been very good on the defensive side of the floor this season. However, they’ve gone 8-4 over the number in games in which there was a posted total. In addition, the Peacocks have averaged 73.3 points scored and shot a sizzling hot 52.1% from the field during its previous three contests.
Iona has seen each of their previous three contests go over the total, and there was a combined average of 178.7 points scored per game. The Gaels played a large role in those high scoring affairs by averaging 89.0 points per game and shooting a stellar 47.8% from the field. They’ve been offensively explosive at home this season, averaging 84.6 points per game, shooting 48.1% from the field, and converting on a more than respectable 37.8% of their three point attempts.
Brandon Lee
Bulls/Celtics Over 205½
I'm expecting a high-scoring game in Boston tonight between the Bulls and Celtics. Chicago is known for their defense, but it's been non-existent on the road this season. The Bulls are allowing a staggering 105.2 ppg away from home and aren't exactly in a spot to lay it all on the line defensively with a much bigger game on deck at Cleveland tomorrow. The Celtics are giving up 100.8 ppg on the season, but have been playing little to no defense of late, as they are allowing 109.4 ppg over their last 5. OVER is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 off a double-digit loss at home and 6-0 in their last 6 road games.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Bucks +3
The Milwaukee Bucks come into this game against the Houston Rockets playing their best basketball of the season. They have gone 4-1 SU and a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.
The Bucks have gotten healthy and have dominated the opposition as a result. They beat the Bulls by 5 at home and the Hawks by 7 at home, while also crushing the Bobcats by 13 and the Heat by 12 on the road during this stretch.
The Rockets are the most inconsistent team in the NBA. They have gone 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall with their only wins coming against the Timberwolves and Lakers during this stretch. They lost at home to Cleveland by 14, on the road to the Clippers by 8 and at home to the Pistons by 9 in their three losses over their last five games.
Houston is really banged up right now, which has attributed to its poor play. Donatas Motiejunas and Dwight Howard are both expected to miss this game, while Patrick Beverly and Jason Terry are questionable. The Rockets will be playing their 7th game in 11 days, while the Bucks will be playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.
The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. The Bucks are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Milwaukee is 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.
Jimmy Boyd
Clippers/Knicks Under 203½
The Clippers come into this game off an embarrassing 102-115 loss at Cleveland last night and have now lost 2 of 3 since winning 10 straight. While LA will be playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back set on the road with no rest, I look for them to come out motivated off that poor showing against the Cavs. The key here is they won't be playing at their regular tempo given the lack of rest.
The Knicks are playing with a ton of confidence right now, especially at home, where they have won 6 straight. They come into this game off two high-scoring contests against the 76ers (119-113) and Jazz (118-111), but it's important to note that both of those games went to overtime. Both of those games would have ended under 200 points had their not been extra time and while New York is coming off a day of rest, playing 3 overtime periods in their last two games is going to have an effect on their tempo, which is already one of the slower paces in the league.
Another huge factor here is the history of this series. Only once in the last 7 meetings have these two teams combined for more than 203 points and that was 204. That's also the only time during this stretch they combined of more than 191 points.
UNDER is 31-19 in the Clippers last 50 games when they come in having failed to cover 2 of their last 3 and 31-16 in New York's last 47 against teams that average 103 or more points/game. UNDER is also 8-2 in LA's last 10 after a SU loss and 6-2 in their last 8 when playing on no rest.
Adding to all of this is a strong system. UNDER is 12-4 this season in games with a total of 200 to 209.5 where you have an explosive offensive team (103+ ppg) against an opponent that's allowed 100 or more in 3 straight games (77-43 over L3 years).