SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Portland (26-17, 22-20-1 ATS) at Boston (27-13, 17-23 ATS)
The Celtics try to snap a three-game losing skid when they welcome the Trail Blazers to TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.
Portland is in the third game of a four-game East Coast road trip, coming in off a 98-90 win in Philadelphia on Wednesday, cashing as a one-point favorite. The Blazers opened the trip with a 97-92 loss in Washington, coming up short as two-point pups. They average just 93.8 points a game on the highway, but they’ve put up 101.2 ppg and shot 50 percent from the floor over their last five overall.
Boston center Kevin Garnett is scheduled to make his first appearance after missing 10 games with a knee injury. The Celtics were just 4-6 (SU and ATS) in the 10 contests without their All-Star, but dropped their last three (SU and ATS), including a 92-86 loss at Detroit on Wednesday, falling as six-point favorites.
These teams split last year’s two meetings, with the home team gong 2-0 SU and ATS. First, Boston scored a 93-78 home win as eight-point favorites to run its winning streak over the Blazers to seven in a row (7-0 ATS) before losing in Portland in December 2008, 91-86 with the Blazers cashing as a 6½-point pup. Boston is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests, including 4-0 in the last four played at home.
Portland is on ATS slides of 1-4 after a spread-cover and 1-4 against Atlantic Division teams, but it is 12-2 ATS in its last 14 Friday games and 6-1 in its last seven against winning teams. The Celtics are 5-1 ATS in their last six against the Northwest Division, but otherwise on ATS slumps of 1-4 overall, 1-4 at home, 0-4 against the Western Conference and 8-22 when favored by 5 to 10 ½-points.
The Blazers are on “over” runs of 9-4 overall, 9-4 as underdogs, 4-1 on Fridays and 7-3 as road ‘dogs. Boston has topped the total in 18 of 25 after a straight-up loss and 16 of 21 as a home chalk of 5 to 10 1/2 points, but it is on “under” streaks of 11-4-1 against the Northwest Division and 4-1 as a favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Finally, the “over” is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two in Beantown.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Houston (23-18, 21-20 ATS) at San Antonio (25-16, 21-19-1 ATS)
In-state rivals take to the court inside the AT&T Center when the Rockets pay a visit to the slumping Spurs.
Houston has alternated wins and losses in its last six games (1-5 ATS), with each of its last two wins coming in overtime. The most recent came Monday, as the Rockets scored a 101-98 home victory over Milwaukee, but failed to cash as a 6½-point favorite. Houston has been putting the ball in the basket lately, averaging 105.2 points a game over the last five outings, but the team has given up 105 per contest during that same stretch.
San Antonio has lost three of its last four, with the only win coming on Monday in New Orleans – a 97-90 victory as a one-point road pup. The Spurs followed that triumph by returning home on Wednesday and losing to the Jazz 105-98 as a 5½-point favorite. San Antonio has managed just 93.2 ppg over its last five games.
The road team has taken each of the last three contests (SU and ATS) with San Antonio scoring the 92-84 win in the first meeting this season back in November, cashing easily as a one-point pup. Prior to the three-game winning streak for the road team, the series host had rattled off six straight wins (5-1 ATS). The pup is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the Rockets have cashed in six of the last eight clashes in San Antonio.
Houston comes into this one on several ATS slides, including 0-7 on the road, 0-4 against Western Conference teams, 0-4 as a ‘dog, 1-5 after a non-cover and 0-6 as a road pup. The Spurs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as favorites, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 6-2-1 after a non-cover and 9-1 as a favorite of 5 to 10 ½ points.
The Rockets have topped the total in four straight, four of five after a non-cover and six of eight on Fridays, but they are on “under” runs of 11-4 on the road and 23-6 against winning teams. San Antonio is on several “under” streaks, including 21-6 against teams with winning records, 5-1 against Southwest Division teams, 5-2 overall and 4-0 after a non-cover. In this rivalry, the “under” is 21-5 in the last 26 meetings and 14-3 the last 17 clashes at the Alamo.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Matt Fargo
3* Toronto Raptors
This line may seem bigger than it should be considering the Raptors were a 2.5-point underdog in Milwaukee on Wednesday making this a 10-point swing but I believe it is justified. Toronto lost that game by six points after leading for much of the contest and that made it two straight losses in Milwaukee this season for the Raptors making this a double-revenge spot. Toronto has had a very rough schedule over the last couple weeks as seven of their last 10 games were on the road and the three games played at home were no easy outs as those came against Dallas, Boston and San Antonio. The Raptors took two of those three home games and actually went 5-5 during this stretch which is pretty impressive in my opinion. They are looking to start strong here as this is the first game of the schedule turn as it is more in the favor of the Raptors in the foreseeable future. 11 of the next 14 games are played at home with the three road games being at New York, Indiana and New Jersey meaning a huge run could be in store for the Raptors beginning tonight. Milwaukee has not had a very likable schedule either as it was coming off a brutal six-game Western Conference roadtrip where it went 1-5 before it played the Raptors the other night. Now instead of some time at home, the Bucks have to hit the road again tonight before coming home against tomorrow night. All in all, this is a lot of travel as Milwaukee has not stayed stationary for more than one night since over Christmas which was the last time it played back-to-back home games. The road has been rough for Milwaukee this season as it is 5-16 away from home including a 3-14 run following a 2-2 start. One of those victories came at New Jersey so we can actually not even count that one either. As a favorite this season, Milwaukee is 12-3 but as an underdog it is 5-20 meaning the favored team has gone 32-8 in its 40 games on the season. That is the straight up record and while the Bucks have been decent as underdogs, this is not a situation it has been accustomed to. Toronto also falls into a great bounce back situation. Play against teams that are coming off a home win by scoring 110 or more points, in a game involving two teams with a losing record with a winning percentage higher than .400. This situation is 50-19 ATS (72.5 percent) since 1996. The home team has covered four of the last five meetings and that continues on Friday. 3* Toronto Raptors
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
COL (-130) vs NAS
To date, Nashville and Colorado could arguably be considered the biggest "surprises" of the year; that being said, for a number of different reasons I believe the Av's will win this home game and that this is a very favorable line for the home side:
Nashville is coming off a disappointing loss last night in Phoenix and I believe it will be prime for another "letdown" this evening.
The Predators were in position to win, leading 2-1 after two periods but Coyotes right wing Scottie Upshall had a natural hat trick in the third period to send Nashville to its second straight defeat.
On the other side of the rink: The Avalanche have 62 points and are tied atop the Northwest Division with the Canucks. Though both teams have the same number of points, Colorado is third in the conference because it's played one fewer game than Vancouver.
Colorado and Nashville have met twice this season with the Predators winning both in thrilling fashion; the "double-revenge factor" comes into play this evening as well.
Bottom line: This is a spot that Colorado has done extremely well in all season: 10-3 (+9.8 units) when revenging a home loss vs. an opponent. It's also an awesome 8-3 (+6.6 units) after a victory by two goals or more; I believe when you take all of the above factors into consideration, along with this favorable line, that COLORADO is certainly worth a second look in this instance.
Marc Lawrence
New Orleans Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
When the Timberwolves host the Hornets at the Target center Friday night they will do so knowing they are 13-5 ATS in this series when they own a win percentage of less than .333 on the season, including 11-2 ATS when they are off a loss. Minny is also 14-7 ATS this season as a dog in games against an opponent off a win. With the Hornets looking dead ahead to a big showdown at Denver tomorrow night, look for the T'Wolves to avenge a pair of single-digit losses suffered last month against New Orleans here tonight.
BIG AL
Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs
Prediction: Houston Rockets
In its last game, Gregg Popovich's crew fell at home -- as a favorite -- to the Utah Jazz, and that was a very disappointing loss given the game's circumstances. The Spurs had already dropped three games to Utah this season, and wanted to come out and salvage the season series with at least one win. But even though San Antonio looked good in spurts (it even outscored the Jazz 25-0 at one point), it wasn't consistent enough to overcome solid efforts by Deron Williams, Andrei Kirilenko and Carlos Boozer. Frankly, this is turning into a "lost season" for the Spurs. After much optimism to start the 2009-10 campaign, they've yet to look like a championship contender. And part of the reason is that newcomers Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have greatly underachieved. Throw in the fact that point guard Tony Parker is battling foot problems, and it's really no surprise the Spurs have been mediocre this season. In contrast, the Rockets have over-achieved, notwithstanding the fact that they've failed to cover four straight games. Let's back Houston tonight as an underdog in the Alamo City, especially given the fact that Houston is a super 63-36 ATS off three or more pointspread losses since 1996.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards
The Heat were absolutely bombed in their last game, losing by 39 at Charlotte. Off a big loss, this team traditionally bounces back well as we note Miami is 13-3 against the spread the last two seasons off a loss by 15 or more. The Nation's Capital is the perfect place for them to get back on track as they have covered an astounding 23 of their last 28 visits in Washington. With the Wizards a horrible 7-25 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 and 5-18 ATS vs. division opponents, things should be no different this time around.
Play on: Miami
Craig Trapp
Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs
Play: Houston Rockets +6
Really like the way Houston matches up against SAS. Most teams don't have anyone that can slow down Tim Duncan but the Rockets can rotate three players on him and really give him difficulty. On offense the Rockets also have a very good inside/outside threats. The Rockets are the best defensive team in the West and its a true gift to get this many points. The Rockets win this one straight up with outstanding defense and team rebounding!
Jim Feist
New Jersey Nets vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Over 216½
The Nets still aren't winning games, but at least they are scoring some points! New Jersey is on a 5-2 run over the total. But this defense is getting worse, giving up 106 or more points in each of the last four games. That's not surprising with a team that is winding up a lost season. That defense will struggle again against a Golden State uptempo offense that is second in the NBA in scoring with 107.7 ppg. This is the sixth straight home game for the rested Warriors, so look for them to run at the road-weary visitors, meaning plenty of points. Play the Nets/Warriors Over the total.
EZWINNERS
Golden State Warriors -7.5
The New Jersey Nets do not have the offensive fire power to keep up with the style of play and tempo that the Warriors will force in this game. The only real scoring threat that the Nets have is center Brook Lopez and his style of game is in the half court set, not the up and down game that Golden State will play. New Jersey is only 7-16 against the spread in their last 23 road games and they are 0-9 against the NBA Pacific division. The Warriors are 15-3 against the spread against the NBA Atlantic division and they are on a 10-3 run against the spread in their last 13 games overall. New Jersey's point guard Devin Harris looked to be budding into an NBA All-Star last season, but has fallen off of the map this year. He will be badly outplayed by the combo of Stephen Curry and Monta Ellis. Lay the points.
Brad Diamond Sports
Play on: Dallas over Philadelphia
It was no secret to Philadelphia Basketball fans that the Sixers are short on coaching and PG position. But, other night former PG Andre Miller was in town for the visiting Blazers and he was asked, what is missing from the Philly floor game? Miller simply replied, "a point guard." You see, Miller was the Philly PB last season and made the feeble franchise look respectable when he was running the offense. Now we have Iverson, Williams and Iggy trying to run the point along with the kid from UCLA. General Manager has been making poor decisions in his short tenure in Philadelphia. His club plays little defense, and clearly can't run HC Jordan's Princeton offense??? Maybe, they are waiting for the lottery and hoping the JW from Kentucky will coming out this spring.
Karl Garrett
Miami -2 at WASHINGTON
It doesn't get much worse than getting beat 104-65, and that is exactly what happened to Miami on Wednesday at Charlotte. The G-Man feels that the Heat will show some pride tonight, and take it out on Washington.
The Wizards have proven to be scrappy of late, as they have covered 4 in a row coming into this Friday contest, and Washington did win the season's first meeting between the teams, 94-84 at the end of November in Miami.
G-Man expects things in this series to return to normal, as Miami had won the previous 6 series meetings, and had covered the previous 7 series meetings.
Overall, the road team is 21-6-2 against the line the last 29 times these teams have tangled.
If Miami has any pride at all, they will come out strong tonight after that Wednesday night debacle in Charlotte.
G-Man going with the Heat here.
4♦ MIAMI
Dominic Fazzini
Dallas -3 at PHILADELPHIA
I should have made Stanford my main play instead of my complimentary selection Thursday! The Cardinal rolled to a 59-35 home victory over Oregon State, improving my record to 60-40-3 over the last 103 days, with a 43-27-3 run over the last 73.
I don't know if today's free play is going to come in quite as easily, but I've got a lot of confidence in the Mavericks tonight at Philadelphia.
Dallas has one of the best road records in the NBA at 15-7, and the 76ers are just as bad at home as they are on the road, going 6-14 in Philly.
The Mavericks have won three straight games against the Sixers, and seven of the last eight meetings between the teams.
Philadelphia is not a good defensive team, allowing opponents to shoot 47.3 percent this season, and now it gets the pleasure of trying to stop red-hot Dirk Nowitzki, who is averaging 29.2 ppg over his last five games, shooting 56.3 percent in the process.
The Mavs might be without forward Josh Howard, who missed Wednesday's game with a stomach illness, but I think they'll be OK even if they have to play without him against a Sixers team that is on ATS slides of 7-19 at home and 0-7 as a home underdog. Take Dallas to win pretty easily tonight.
3♦ DALLAS
Bobby Maxwell
Houston +6 at SAN ANTONIO
I'm red-hot with my FREE plays, sitting at 55-23, including 32-9 over the last 41 days. Tonight I have an NBA free winner for you as I grab the points with the Rockets as they visit their in-state rivals in San Antonio.
I’m grabbing the points with the Rockets in this one as the road team has won the last three in this rivalry. Also, Houston is starting to score some serious points and that will be tough for the old legs of the Spurs to keep up with.
The Rockets have topped the 100-point mark in five of the last six games, including Monday’s 101-98 win over the Bucks in OT. Now they’ve had three days off to rest up for the Spurs, who they beat in San Antonio at the end of last season, 87-85 as a three-point underdog.
San Antonio has dropped three of four overall and just got beat by the Jazz on Wednesday, 105-98, on the home floor, failing as a 5 ½-point favorite. These guys haven’t gotten to triple digits since Jan. 13, a run of four games (1-3 ATS).
What it usually boils down to is if the Spurs’ Tony Parker doesn’t have a huge game, they aren’t going to get the win. And with Houston’s Aaron Brooks able to stay with Parker, the Rockets should be able to keep him relatively quiet.
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last eight trips to San Antonio and I expect more of the same tonight. Grab the points and play the Rockets.
5♦ HOUSTON
DUNKEL
Charlotte at Atlanta
The Bobcats look to build on their 4-1 record in their last 5 games as an underdog from 5 to 10 1/2 points. Charlotte is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Hawks favored by only 2 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7)
Game 801-802: Miami at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 115.519; Washington 119.044
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 3 1/2; 193
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+2); Under
Game 803-804: Sacramento at Orlando
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento 112.312; Orlando 122.837
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 10 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 9 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Orlando (-9 1/2); Over
Game 805-806: Milwaukee at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee 116.212; Toronto 120.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 4; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 8; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+8); Over
Game 807-808: Dallas at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.841; Philadelphia 118.318
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 195
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3); Under
Game 809-810: Portland at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 114.825; Boston 127.636
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 13; 182
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 10; 186
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-10); Under
Game 811-812: Charlotte at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 120.529; Atlanta 122.797
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7; 190
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+7); Over
Game 813-814: Oklahoma City at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.801; Memphis 126.479
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 3 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-3 1/2); Over
Game 815-816: LA Lakers at New York
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.194; New York 117.586
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 4 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: New York (+5 1/2); Under
Game 817-818: Indiana at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.203; Detroit 112.009
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 1; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 3 1/2; 199
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Under
Game 819-820: New Orleans at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 114.482; Minnesota 115.012
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1; 207
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 3 1/2; 201
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over
Game 821-822: Houston at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 117.573; San Antonio 124.819
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 7; 193
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6); Under
Game 823-824: Chicago at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 116.354; Phoenix 122.040
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 5 1/2; 225
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 6 1/2; 218
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+6 1/2); Over
Game 825-826: New Jersey at Golden State
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 106.697; Golden State 117.572
Dunkel Line & Total: Golden State by 11; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7 1/2; 216 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (-7 1/2); Over
NCAAB
WI-Milwaukee at Youngstown State
The Panthers look to take advantage of a Youngstown State team that is 2-8-2 ATS in its last 12 games as an underdog. Wisconsin-Milwaukee is the pick (-2) according to Dunkel, which has the Panthers favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-2)
Game 827-828: WI-Milwaukee at Youngstown State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 57.609; Youngstown State 52.650
Dunkel Line: WI-Milwaukee by 5
Vegas Line: WI-Milwaukee by 2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Milwaukee (-2)
Game 829-830: Yale at Brown
Dunkel Ratings: Yale 45.165; Brown 46.480
Dunkel Line: Brown by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Brown by 4
Dunkel Pick: Yale (+4)
Game 831-832: WI-Green Bay at Cleveland State
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 51.961; Cleveland State 59.772
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland State (-4 1/2)
Game 833-834: Rider at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 49.948; Canisius 57.017
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 7
Vegas Line: Canisius by 4
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-4)
Game 835-836: St. Peter's at Niagara
Dunkel Ratings: St. Peter's 46.606; Niagara 60.152
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Niagara by 10
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-10)
Game 837-838: Wofford at College of Charleston
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 57.262; College of Charleston 60.927
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 839-840: Iona at Manhattan
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 56.499; Manhattan 55.093
Dunkel Line: Iona by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: Iona by 3
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+3)
Game 841-842: Portland State at Weber State
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 50.018; Weber State 62.820
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 13
Vegas Line: Weber State by 9
Dunkel Pick: Weber State (-9)
Game 843-844: Eastern Washington at Idaho State
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Washington 43.915; Idaho State 50.952
Dunkel Line: Idaho State by 7
Vegas Line: Idaho State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Washington (+7 1/2)
Game 845-846: Sacramento State at Northern Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 40.221; Northern Colorado 64.038
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 24
Vegas Line: Northern Colorado by 17 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (-17 1/2)
NHL
Nashville at Colorado
The Predators look to build on their 6-1 record in their last 7 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Nashville is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Predators favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+115)
Game 51-52: Montreal at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 9.723; New Jersey 11.375
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1 1/2; 4
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-200); 5
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (-200); Under
Game 53-54: Nashville at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.664; Colorado 12.229
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Colorado (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+115); Under
Game 55-56: Dallas at Edmonton
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.116; Edmonton 11.689
Dunkel Line & Total: Edmonton by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Edmonton (+100); Under
John Ryan
Portland State vs. Weber State
Play: Over 159
Ai Simulator 3* graded play OVER Portland State/Weber State set to start at 9:00 EST. Our research combined with our handicapping mode/simulator clearly shows a high probability that at least 160 points will be scored in this game. Portland State shoot well and plays a faster paced game. Their defense is always suspect and they gave up an amazing 71% shooting in their last game against Northern Arizona. Weber State is coming a 95 point output and a 2 point win over Idaho State. They shot a poor 39% from the field and still scored 95. Both teams like the 3 and also are very good free throw shooting teams. Weber State is a perfect 6-0 OVER (+6.0 Units) versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. We also see the pace of the game being fast and Weber will attempt between 54 and 62 shots and will score at least 81 in this game. In past games where PS has allowed 81 or more points the over is a perfect 4-0 this season, 11-2 over th epast 3 seasons and 32-4 since 1997. Take the OVER.